Saving the WAC...the future is coming.

The time has come for the WAC to prepare for life as a non-football conference.  Their best hope remains that the Big 12 can not stay together, which would allow the WAC to possibly add some of the left over pieces like Iowa State or Baylor.  Last night the PAC 12 announced that they would not expand.  There were two reasons cited by ESPN for this.  One was the unbalanced revenue sharing that the Longhorn Network would bring.  The 12 existing schools decided to allow schools to develop local television broadcasting networks, such as allowing Utah to broadcast games on K-Jazz.  But the Longhorn Network is out of bounds.  Then the Arizona Schools decided that they want access to the Los Angeles area, which did not seem likely if Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were added.

As such, the Big 12 is being forced to face reality.  Although the may lose Missouri to the SEC, the remaining 8 must find a way to work together.  Publicly, the are pursuing Arkansas and BYU.  Arkansas seems like a long shot, and seems happy in the SEC.  BYU is not a long shot.  But the Cougars will want assurances from Texas and Oklahoma that they are committed to keeping the Big 12 going.

Afterwards, the Big 12 will want to get back to 12.  If Missouri also leaves, then you have 4 holes to fill.  BYU will be one, but who will be the other 3.  ESPN reports that Boise State and Air Force are among them.  TCU, SMU and Houston could also be in the mix.  This will spell curtains for the WAC and here is why.  The best case scenario for the Big 12, if they also lose Missouri is BYU, Boise, Air Force and TCU.  If the Big 12 can not get TCU, then either Houston or SMU will be the next choice.

The MWC will replace Boise State and Air Force.  They are aggressively trying to keep TCU, but TCU could join the Big 12.  Their replacement list could include Montana.  If both Boise and Air Force are gone, then expect the MWC to at least add Utah State to remain at 9 for football.  Then they could make the move to go to 12.  They believe that Montana will accept an invite, where the Missoula school would not join the WAC.  If the MWC invites 4 to run their number to 12 look for Utah State, San Jose State, Montana and Montana State to get invites.

Conference USA is certain to be decimated by this realignment as well.  The Big East is not hunting for replacements for Syracuse and Pittsburgh and will certainly raid C-USA for those replacements.  They could include Central Florida, East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, SMU (to keep TCU) and Houston.

Where then will Conference USA go for their replacements.  There is a possibility that C-USA, if they fall to 9 will remain there, but they could lose more.  They could go back to 12.  Three WAC schools are C-USA possibilities.  They are UTSA, Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State.  C-USA may grab Appalachian State who is transitioning to the FBS.  Other possibilities are Middle Tennessee and North Texas and other schools from the Sun Belt including Florida International, Florida Atlantic and Troy.

The WAC is at 7 football members for 2012.  At 5, you no longer have a conference.  The next move for the WAC would be to simply wave a white flag and become a basketball conference.  If the WAC can remain at 8 basketball schools, where they now have three that do not have football, they can keep their NCAA automatic bid.  They should immediately make invitations to Utah Valley, CS Bakersfield and Texas A&M Corpus Chisti--the last non-football member of the Southland Conference.  They should look for two other schools that are mis-aligned with their current conferences.  Summit League member Oral Roberts is one.  Houston Baptist and Texas Pan American are others.

Possible Disposition of the remaining 7 WAC football members:

Idaho--Relegated back to the FCS and Big Sky Conference  Long shot...Mountain West Conference
Utah State---Mountain West Conference
San Jose State--Mountain West Conference or FCS and Big Sky Conference for football and Big West for other sports.
New Mexico State--Conference USA or Sun Belt Conference
Texas State--Sun Belt Conference
UTSA--Conference USA or Sun Belt Conference
Louisiana Tech--Conference USA or Sun Belt Conference

Possible Basketball-only WAC

CS Bakersfield
Denver
Houston Baptist
Oral Roberts
Seattle
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Texas Arlington
Texas Pan American
Utah Valley