Friday, August 31, 2012

Report of the Games, September 30, 2012

BYU 30 Washington State 6.

Riley Nelson looked comfortable in the pocket, bought time with his feet and let his Cougars to a 30-6 win in their season opener vs Washington State.  BYU built a 24-6 halftime lead and only needed to add a pair of field goals in the second half as the defense was in control.  This marks only the third time in history that a Mike Leach coached team has been held without a touchdown, although one was called back due to a holding call.  BYU's defense, except for way too many personal foul calls, looked very good.

BYU MVP  QB Riley Nelson

Utah 41 Northern Colorado 0

The offense got off to a slow start, but otherwise this game went as expected.  Northern Colorado was outmatched when the Bears had the ball.  Utah had a little trouble scoring at first...I thought that they would reach 70...but cruised from the second quarter on.

Utah MVP: RB John White IV

Utah State 34 Southern Utah 3

Joe Hill rolled up 116 yards and the Aggie defense frustrated SUU's Sorensen.  Other than a couple of turnovers, the Aggies were on-script all night.

Utah State MVP RB Joe Hill

Of Note:

The first win of a FCS team over a FBS team happened on night 1 as Eastern Washington rolled into the Kibbie Dome and beat Idaho 20-3.  Give credit to the Eagles, they are a good team.  But Idaho, trying to prove that they still should be an FBS team showed that they would have trouble with the Big Sky Conference this year.  This game may have already sealed Robb Akey's fate...a good guy I knew in college...he may not last the season at Idaho if this keeps up.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

2012 College Football...week 1 predictions

Four of Utah's 5 college teams will be in action on Thursday night this week.  The 3 FBS teams will be at home, and the FCS teams will be on the road.  Gives people in Utah what we want, college football and camping on Labor Day weekend.

Washington State at BYU--The Palouse Valley Cougars are a big question mark this year.  Yes, there is a lot of talk in Pullman about how improved Washington State will be with Mike Leach at the helm.  But, for the most part, he has the same players that were there last season.  The offense may score more points, but Leach's teams have often forgotten about defense.  But, they are playing against Riley Nelson and and the Utah Valley Cougars.  We know what they can do, or do we?  BYU needs to prove that they can run the ball effectively and not turn it over.  If they can do that, expect the Cougars at home to win. 

Prediction 49-39 BYU

Northern Colorado at Utah--NCU was at the bottom of the Big Sky last year, and most do not expect that to change in 2012.  The real question is whether or not Jordan Wynn, John White and the rest of the Utah starters will be playing in the second half.  The only reason to watch this game is to see the Stanley Cup.  Salt Lake City native, Trevor Lewis of the Los Angeles Kings will bring the famous trophy to Rice Eccles Stadium on Thursday.

Prediction 73-10 Utah

Southern Utah at Utah State--Brad Sorensen, in my opinion, is the best college quarterback in the state.  But he leads the FCS Thunderbirds into Romney Stadium this weekend.  The key will be how well the Thunderbirds can replace Austin Minifee.  If they can run the ball, they might give Utah State a close game for a little while.  This season, the Aggies are trying to prove that they can win consistently and that they can hold onto a head coach.  Neither quest will be challenged this weekend.

Prediction 45-24 Utah State

Weber State at Fresno State--Weber usually plays two games against FBS opponents every year, and they often put a good scare into one of them.  Fresno State and Weber State are breaking in new head football coaches.  If Weber is going to put a scare into an FBS opponent, it is more likely to be this one.  But Fresno should have the depth to pull away late.

Prediction 38-20 Fresno State

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Who are the other schools on the Big Sky radar?

From the outset, this is speculation on my part.  I do not have any inside information, and no news reports other than what has been reported.  Besides Idaho, there are reported 5 other schools who could become the 14th member of the Big Sky Football conference.  Who are they?  What follows in my speculation.

Current FCS-level schools.

San Diego.  The Torreos are one of two WCC members that play football, the other is BYU.  USD does not offer scholarships for football and that is why they compete in the Pioneer Conference.  Other than geography, they are not a good fit for the Big Sky.  They are a religious school and the Big Sky Conference is all public schools.  However, they are not a good fit for the Pioneer Conference, either.  Their nearest conference rival is Drake in Des Moines, Iowa.  The Big Sky Conference would be a lower-cost travel alternative.  Gonzaga, a religious school that used to have a football team, was a charter member of the Big Sky Conference.  My hunch is that Fullerton is looking for a school that would compete in all sports, and therefore SDU is probably not the choice.

North Dakota State, South Dakota State, South Dakota.  I can't imagine these schools want to leave the MVFC, but that does not mean that Fullerton does not have an offer on the table for them.  South Dakota turned down BSC membership a couple of years ago.

Current Division II shcools.

Central Washington, Western Oregon and Simon Frasier.  There are not a lot of Division II schools in the northwest that play football, these are the only three.  Central Washington has dominated GNAC for many years, and may be looking to move up.  Their biggest rival, Western Washington, has dropped football.  Would make a good new rival for Eastern Washington.  Western Oregon has been willing to give teams in the BSC a game when they have needed it, but have not been much for competition.  Simon Frasier is the only Canadian college in the NCAA.  They are a school that would be out of place not matter where they are. 

Dixie State is a good geographical fit with the conference, being close to Southern Utah and Northern Arizona.  But having just moved from a dominate junior college team, they have struggled as a Division II school.  It may be early for them to move up.  However, the St. George market is probably the best that the Big Sky Conference can hope to get all to themselves.

Colorado Mesa is probably the best option out of all of the RMAC schools.  They offer a Big Sky sized market and are isolated from some of the bigger boys in the world.  Other possible (I will refrain from saying good) choices are New Mexico Highlands, CSU-Pueblo, Ft. Lewis and Colorado Mines.  The Big Sky should stay away from any school that is in a small isolated town that has a student body below 3,000.

Maybe SDU is out of the picture, but CS-San Diego, if they finally decide to make the jump to Division I would be a good fit for the Big Sky.

Non-football Division I schools

Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield are some good choices if they decide to add football.  But football virgins may not be very competitive for the first decade. 

There are some other schools in California that would make a good fit for the Big Sky if they decide to add football.  These include former Big West football players like CS Fullerton, Long Beach State, and UC Santa Barbara.  The BSC may be a temporary stopping place for these guys, but it would be a good place to begin.  Other California schools that may make the BSC a more permanent home include former BSC member CS-Northridge, as well as UC-Irvine and UC-Riverside.

Non-football Division II schools

After they first add football, schools like Montana State-Billings, Colorado-Colorado Springs, Regis and Metro State would be possible choices.  Stay away from schools such as Adams State...very small schools in very small towns do not have football for a good reason.  Others include Western Washington and many others that I will not mention right now.

Another very intriguing possibility is Alaska-Anchorage.  After spending 3 years in Alaska on an Air Force Tour of Duty, I can see why UAA does not have a football program.  It has very little to do with the cost.  I suspect that there is some sugar daddy in Anchorage who will help them meet the expenses.  There are some people with some serious bucks in Anchorage, and there is not enough to do between September and May.  October weather in Anchorage can be like January weather elsewhere.  Bozeman and Missoula are cold, but the weather in Montana is usually bearable in October.  If UAA adds football, expect it to be indoors.  It is not impossible to build an expandable, 15,000-seat indoor, climate-controlled, multipurpose, configurable stadium.  They could build something like the old field-house in Bozeman.  But something that the Kibbie Dome and Walkup Skydome are not, easily expandable should the sports program outgrow the Big Sky Conference.  It could host football in the "fall", the Great Alaska Shootout and basketball in the Winter, and Baseball in the "Spring".  They would have little trouble in filling it because it is not like there is a lot going on Anchorage.  There is a stadium that can be used while the new indoor stadium is getting built...just dress warmly for the occasion...and pray for a Chinook.

Non-athletic schools

BYU-Idaho would be a good fit for the Big Sky Conference if they bring back athletics.  Natural rivalries and in the heart of the Conference.  But I don't believe it will ever happen.

Final Analysis

My guess is that if Idaho will not join the BSC, the 12th member is likely to be Central Washington.  But the door will be open to others on this list if conditions are right.  The other 4 are probably Dixie State, Utah Valley, CS-San Diego and Colorado Mesa.  4 of the 5 are Division II schools, and the other has to add football.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Old News by Now

Idaho is going independent in football.  Where their other sports land remains to be seen.  At first, I would guess that they would become the 12th non-football member of the Big Sky Conference.  But the WAC, still holding on to whatever breath of life they have left, is trying to keep Idaho and Boise State from bolting away from New Mexico State, Denver, and Seattle.

However, the august conference does need at least two more non-football programs to keep their NCAA automatic bid.  For Idaho and everyone else, if the WAC can not add those two teams to the conference and keep the NCAA automatic bid, then they are better off looking at options elsewhere.

Those teams should be those who do not have an automatic NCAA bid today...namely Utah Valley and Cal State Bakersfield.  That automatic bid is the only thing that the WAC still has going for it.

For Idaho, if the WAC can't maintain the NCAA automatic bid, they are better off in any conference that does.  Even if they are 1 of 12 or even 16.

I know that Doug Fullerton would love to have Idaho, but he has publically stated that he does not want to see the WAC loose that automatic bid.  Fullerton said it would be bad for the region in general.

However, it will not be Fullerton's fault if the WAC dies completely and the automatic bid is lost.  If you need me to spell that out for you, then you have been sleeping under a rock for the last 2 years, or you don't care about college sports.  If the latter describes you, please let me know what you spend your time on.  Some of us need a new hobby.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

1st Power Rankings of the 2012 Season.

Well, the media and coaches have voted at media days, and the first practices are beginning.  Time for the pre-season power rankings.

PAC-12 (Post season prediction)

1.  USC (BCS Championship Game)
2.  Oregon (Rose Bowl)
3.  Washington (Alamo Bowl)
4.  Utah (Holiday Bowl)
5.  Stanford (Sun Bowl)
6.  California (Las Vegas Bowl)
7.  UCLA (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
8.  Arizona
9.  Arizona State
10. Washington State
11. Oregon State
12. Colorado

Comment: it would be bad if the PAC 12 with 2 extra teams still could not fill all of it's bowl slots.

FBS Indy

1.  Notre Dame (Liberty Bowl)
2.  BYU (Poinsettia Bowl)
3.  Navy (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)
4.  Army

Comment: No matter how good BYU is and how bad Notre Dame is, it is likely that Notre Dame will always get more buzz than BYU.

WAC

1.  Louisiana Tech (New Orleans Bowl)
2.  Utah State (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
3.  San Jose State (New Mexico Bowl)
4.  Idaho
5.  New Mexico State
6.  Texas State
7.  UTSA

Commentary: Louisiana Tech may be playing for the conference championship, but mentally has already left the WAC.

Big Sky

1.  Montana State (2nd round home game vs. play-in team)
2.  Montana (2nd round home game)
3.  Eastern Washington (Play-in round home-game)
4.  Cal Poly
5.  Portland State
6.  Weber State
7.  Sacramento State
8.  Northern Arizona
9.  Southern Utah
10. North Dakota
11. UC Davis
12. Idaho State
13. Northern Colorado

Commentary:  The bigger Big Sky Conference may not mean more playoff spots.  Who outside the conference out West is there to beat?