How the 13-member Big Sky Conference is Working Out?

We are now into the heart of the conference season in 2012, the first season of the Bigger Big Sky Conference.  How is it working out so far?  So far, it appears to be business as usual, which means that it is not working the way that Doug Fullerton predicted.  But that could change by season's end.

When expanding to 13 members, commissioner Fullerton predicted that the conference would go from a 2-3 bid conference to a 4-5 bid conference.  If the playoffs were held today, there would be no doubt that Eastern Washington and Montana State would be selected for the post season.  Beyond that, it is a crap shoot.  You have the possibility that Cal Poly would be the third team selected, but they are definitely on the bubble right now.  Northern Arizona has an outside chance, but will need some help to get in...meaning that some bubble teams from other conferences will need to loose out an make room for the Lumberjacks.  Because other conferences will get automatic bids with unranked teams, and there are only 20 playoff spots, a team really needs to be in the top 15 to get a bid.

Here is a look at the post-season chances for each Big Sky Conference team.

The Contenders

Montana State (#2/2)...Currently 5-0, 2-0.  The remaining schedule is kind to the Bobcats.  Remaining home games: EWU, North Dakota, Portland State.  Remaining road games: UCD, Sacramento State and Montana.  Chances are pretty good that MSU can drop a game and still get a second-round home game.  Appear to be a lock for the playoffs baring a complete melt-down

Eastern Washington (#7/7)...Currently 4-1, 2-0.  The one loss was a close one to FBS Washington State and they have a win over FBS Idaho.  The performance against the upper division teams should be a bonus for the Eagles come selection time if they end up with a 7-4 or 8-3 record by season's end and should help them get a second round home game.  Remaining home games: North Dakota, Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis.  Remaining home games: Montana State, Southern Utah and Portland State.

Cal Poly (#19/20)...Currently 4-0, 2-0.  Perhaps the Mustangs are not ranked as high as they should be this season.  They have a date with Eastern Washington looming to prove that they deserve better than to be lingering on the bubble.  Otherwise, the schedule is favorable.  Remaining home games: Northern Colorado, Portland State, Idaho State.  Remaining road games: Weber State, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona.

Northern Arizona (#21/18)...4-1, 2-0.  The Lumberjacks have been a surprise so far in 2012.  Other than a loss to Arizona State, it has been all wins.  Between now and the end of the season, the Lumberjacks have games that they should win, and they avoid playing Eastern Washington or Montana State.  This means that NAU could get the automatic bid, even if they are ranked lower than EWU or MSU, as is now the case.  Remaining Home Games: UCD, SUU, Cal-Poly.  Remaining road games: North Dakota, Northern Colorado and ISU.

Note: Eastern Washington and Cal Poly have wins over FBS schools and that would be a tie breaker.  If EWU and NAU both end up unbeaten, EWU would get the automatic bid as the teams do not play each other.  NAU could get the automatic bid if they win the remainder of their games, which includes a game against Cal-Poly and the other contenders each lose a game.  Best scenario for NAU is to beat Cal-Poly, have Cal-Poly beat EWU and see EWU drop Montana State.

If they playoffs were held today, the BSC would have a good argument to get Cal Poly in, but it is a long shot.  NAU, probably not.

Really on the bubble

North Dakota and Sacramento State are both at 3-2.  They have a little, but not much, wiggle room left.  But are really on the outside looking in.

Sacramento State

The Hornets have the roughest schedule remaining of anyone in the Big Sky.  They have to play Cal-Poly, Eastern Washington and Montana State.  If they win 2 of these three and all of their remaining games, they will have a strong case for making the playoffs as they also have a win over Colorado.  Remaining home games: Weber State, Cal Poly, Montana State.  Remaining road games: Southern Utah, Eastern Washington, UC Davis

North Dakota

The Sioux have some work to do.  They have one of the "quality" losses on the road to FBS San Diego State.  But the loss to Cal-Poly, a chance to improve their playoff chances, hurts a little.  Their bubble could burst permanently at Eastern Washington.  They still have a couple of chances to improve their chances, but they will have to win them both.  Remaining home games: Northern Arizona, Montana, Southern Utah.  Remaining road games: Eastern Washington, Montana State, Northern Colorado.

On the outside looking in

With 3 losses, chances for making the playoffs are really dim at this point in the season.

2-3 teams

Montana is usually in playoff contention, but they are likely 1 loss away from staying home this year.  They need to tackle the rest of the season with a sense of urgency.  Remaining home games: Southern Utah, Idaho State, Montana State.  Remaining road games: Northern Colorado, North Dakota, Weber State

Southern Utah lost a heart breaker to Montana State this weekend.  It hurt more because of the 2 FBS losses.  They have to get more wins to be eligible for the at-large bid.  Remaining home games: Sacramento State, Weber State, Eastern Washington.  Remaining road games: Montana, North Dakota, Northern Arizona

UC Davis has beaten the teams that they should, and handily.  They have not looked as good in their losses.  They will have to figure out a way to break through to clear a path to the playoffs.  Remaining home games: Montana State, Portland State, Sacramento State.  Remaining road games: Idaho State, Northern Arizona and Sacramento State

1-3 teams

Idaho State took an early bye and has only defeated Black Hills State, a NAIA school.  Two of their losses are to FBS school.  They have most of the conference schedule ahead of them with an early-season bye.  They will have to figure out how to win against Division I schools to see the post season.  Remaining home games: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Weber State.  Remaining road games: Portland State, Northern Colorado, Montana and Cal-Poly

Northern Colorado has also taken an early season bye.  Their single victory is against Division II Colorado Mesa.  They, also, will need to begin winning against Division I schools.  Remaining home games: Montana, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, North Dakota.  Remaining road games: Cal Poly, Portland State and Weber State

Probably looking forward to basketball season

Portland State is 1-4 and still mathematically in post-season contention; if PSU wins out, they are eligible for an at-large bid.  But in reality already looking forward to next year.

Weber State is now 0-5 and has to win out and win the conference championship to be eligible for the post-season.  It is no longer possible for WSU to win 7 games get an at-large bid.  At least there is basketball season, as always, to look forward to in Ogden.  They have a chance to play spoiler this Friday as they host Cal Poly.

Power Rankings

1.  Montana State
2.  Eastern Washington
3.  Cal Poly
4.  Northern Arizona
5.  North Dakota
6.  Sacramento State
7.  Southern Utah
8.  Montana
9.  UC Davis
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State

Conference Report for September 29

FBS Indy

BYU 47 Hawaii 0
San Jose State 12 Navy 0
Stony Brook 23 Army 3

Offensive POW: BYU RB Jamaal Williams
Defensive POW: BYU DB Daniel Sorensen
Special Teams POW: BYU P/PK Riley Stephenson
No game of the Week selected.

(BYU sweeps because the others were so...well it was not a good week for the service academies.)

PAC-12

Washington 17 Stanford 13
Arizona State 27 California 17
UCLA 42 Colorado 14
Oregon State 38 Arizona 35
Oregon 51 Washington State 26

Memo to Mike Leach--Get a running game
Offensive POW: Oregon RB Kenjon Barner
Defensive POW: Washington DB Desmond Trufant
Special Teams POW: Washington P/PK Travis Coons
Game of the Week: Washington 17 Stanford 13

WAC

Nevada 34 Texas State 21
North Carolina 66 Idaho 0
Louisiana Tech 44 Virginia 38
San Jose State 12 Navy 0
UTSA 35 New Mexico State 14
Utah State 35 UNLV 13

Offensive POW: USU QB Chuckie Keeton
Defensive POW:  San Jose State DE Travis Johnson
Special Teams POW: San Jose State PK Austin Lopez
Game of the Week: Louisiana Tech 44 Virginia 38

Big Sky

Montana State 24 Southern Utah 17
Sacramento State 54 Idaho State 31
Northern Arizona 24 Portland State 10
Cal Poly 35 North Dakota 17
Eastern Washington 32 Montana 26
UC Davis 37 Weber State 13

Offensive POW: Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
Defensive POW: UC Davis LB Byron Gruendl
Special Teams POW: Sacramento State K Edgar Casteneda
Game of the Week: Eastern Washington 32 Montana 26

Report on the Games for September 28-29

BYU 47 Hawaii 0

Remember that dive that someone hit in the Olympics, the one that was executed with a high degree of precision, but not an extreme level of difficulty?  That is what BYU did in Provo on Friday night.  Yes, they took home a clean sheet.  No, they did not impress a lot of people in doing so.  Freshman quarterback Taysom Hill started for Riley Nelson and early in the first quarter, running back Micheal Alisa went out of the game clearing the way for Freshman Jamaal Williams to play in his place.  Both Hill and Williams were impressive and both ran for over 100 yards in this blowout.  The degree of difficulty increases greatly when Utah State comes to town next week.

BYU MVPs: QB Taysom Hill and RB Jamaal Williams

Utah State 35 UNLV 13

There was a white-out in Logan, which is not unusual, but this time there was not a cloud in the sky.  Kerwynn Williams had another big night but Chuckie Keeton was even bigger.  Even though they played a sloppy game, they still run away from the Rebels who did not put up much of a fight. The near-capacity crowd in Logan went home happy.  There is a lot of optimism as the big game in Provo is on the horizon next Friday.

USU MVP: QB Chukiw Keeton

Montana State 24 Southern Utah 17

One could smell upset from the beginning of the game, but it was not to be.  The Thunderbirds chance to tie the score on the last play of the game was intercepted in the end zone.  The second ranked MSU Bobcats escape from Cedar City with a one touchdown victory.  Even though they lost, SUU shows that they do belong in the Big Sky Conference.  Brad Sorensen threw two interceptions and two touchdowns.

SUU MVP:WR Mitch Jessop

UC Davis 37 Weber State 13

Even though WSU showed signs of life in the 2nd half of last-week's game, that life was no where to be found in California this week.  The Aggies were a dominant force on both sides of the ball in the first half, going into the locker room with a 31-6 lead.  The Aggies were on cruise control in the second half.  WSU gets a home game next week.  It will be the third FCS ranked opponent in 4 weeks, the Cal-Poly Mustangs will be in Ogden on Friday night.

WSU MVP: WR Eric Walker

Predictions for the 9/28--9/29 games.

Hawaii at BYU

Hawaii is a different team on the mainland than they are on Oahu.  The BYU defense is playing great, but the offense is not.  Riley Nelson should not play if his injury affects his ability to throw the football.  The last couple of weeks, he has not been able to get the zip on the ball that he should have.  BYU should have started Lark at Utah.  But the coaches have decided to play for the future, which means that Taysom Hill is now the #2 quarterback.  If Riley is hurt, this is a good place for Hill to get his first start.  Expect a rough go, anyway.

28-10 BYU

UNLV at Utah State

Rebels Coach Bobby Hauck is looking forward to the trip to Logan and playing the Aggies.  The Montana native is probably looking forward to playing in the crisp mountain air, the high altitude, the sunshine because if there is any place in the MWC (or future MWC) that looks like Montana, it is Logan.  Yes, you play the games to win, but I really don't believe that UNLV is going to get a win streak going against these Aggies.

42-6 USU

Weber State at UC Davis

WSU needs to have 4 wins for Jody Sears to become the permanent head coach.  There are probably only 4-5 winnable games left on the WSU schedule and this is one of them.  If WSU needs to win one for Jody, it is this Saturday.  If they can not get it done Davis this weekend, we may not see another chance until the Wildcats return to the Sacramento area in October.  I don't think that Weber is, or should be favored, but they could pull this one out.  Right now, however...

35-28 UCD

Montana State at Southern Utah

Some people think that Montana State is overrated and SUU is underrated.  I happen to be one of them, but I am not alone.  MSU is ranked #2 in the country, and if you are looking for an upset that will shake the FCS nation, come to Cedar City this weekend and see if Brad Sorensen, the best quarterback in the State of Utah, can outduel DeNarius McGhee and the Big Sky Conference favorites.  If the Thunderbirds pull this off, they will be the talk of the BSC.

35-32 SUU 

Utah's revised season prospects. No such thing as BYU-flu?

This week's Utes article was going to be about the BYU-flu, and how Utah may have been looking past Utah State and had a BYU hangover at Arizona State.  The so-called BYU-flu may be real, and may have been suffered by other WAC/MWC teams, but it was rarely a problem for Utah.  As I look over the College Football Data Warehouse, I find that Utah usually wins the games before they play BYU and if there was a game after the Cougars, they usually won that as well.  Even in the during the forgettable Tom Lovatt era, was this the case.  The one bright spot during the Lovatt era was an upset win against Arizona State, the week before they played BYU.  Occasionally, one has to wonder, but most years the Utes have taken care of business before taking on BYU.  If there was a loss in the game before or after BYU, it was to a better team, as has been the case this year.

In the past 2 seasons, Utah is 0-2 in the games before BYU and 0-2 after.  But this is because they have played better teams, not because of BYU-flu.  Not even BYU fans are going to argue that BYU is better than Utah State and Arizona State this year...at least not this week.  Nor was last year's BYU team better than last year's USC or Washington.

But what about the rest of the year.  Are the Utes really as bad as they looked against Arizona State?  I would argue that Arizona State is that good, probably the best team that the Utes will play this year.  ASU is good enough to be smelling roses.  They are probably better than USC, as good as Stanford and on a good day could even beat Oregon.  If USU has made that field goal at Wisconsin, they could be this year's BCS busters.

USA today's computer ranking list Utah at a 74.96 which is 8th in the PAC-12. 

Here are Utah's remaining opponents from strongest to weakest.  Sagarin gives the home field 2.38 points.

USC  87.04  (Utah is 74.96 + 2.38=77.34 at home.)  This predicts a 10-point Utah loss.
@ UCLA  78.66  Predicts a 5-point Utah loss.
@ Oregon State  78.46  Predicts a 5-point Utah loss.
Arizona   76.86  Predicts a 1-point Utah win.
@  Washington  71.96  Predicts a 1-point Utah win.
California  72.67  Predicts a 5-point Utah win.
Washington State  61.16  Predicts a 16-point Utah win.
Colorado  54.19  Predicts a 18-point Utah win.

So the 2-2 Utes would finish with a 7-5 record if this prediction holds out.  Viva Las Vegas, I suppose, which would mean another shot at changing state history against Boise State.  (BSU has not lost to a team from Utah since moving up to the FBS.)

Games are not played on computer, however.  Utah was supposed to lose to BYU by a field goal, but pulled out a victory.  They get USC after their bye week.  UCLA and Oregon State may have been playing above themselves all season are are not really as strong as they look right now.  But on the other hand, watch out for Arizona, Washington and California.  So who knows.  They play the games for a reason.

Southern Utah revised 2012 prospects...look out for the T-Birds.

First of all, I want to say that I am not making this up.  Here is a link to the USA today computer rankings.  Check it out for yourself.

Southern Utah surprised some people by knocking off Portland State last week at Jeld-Wenn field.  But it was not a surprise to Jeff Sagarin and his computer rankings at Portland State.  SUU was picked to finish 8th in the pre-season Big Sky Conference polls.  That is the surprise.  According to the computer rankings, SUU is 6th with a predictor of 54.38.  They are as stronger than the BSC average of 54.03, and should represent themselves well the rest of the way, beginning with this Saturday's game against conference favorite, Montana State, who the computer says is very overrated.

The home field adds 2.38 points to the score.

Remaining opponents from strongest to weakest

Eastern Washington   64.34  (SUU score 54.38+2.38=56.76)--Predicts a 10-point EWU win.
@ Montana   59.53--Predicts a 7-point loss
@ North Dakota   58.68--Predicts a 7-point loss
@ Northern Arizona   58.24 --Predicts a 7-point loss
Montana State   54.31--predicts a 2-point win
Weber State   52.89--predicts a 4-point win

Sacramento State   46.02--predicts a 10-point win

The computer predicts, at this time, that SUU will surprise Montana State, but finish with a 5-6 season while going 4-4 in conference play.  The schedule is not kind to the Thuderbirds as they play the cream of the BSC, with most of those games on the road.  It probably would have been nicer to have Idaho State or Northern Colorado instead of North Dakota or Montana, but these are the breaks.  Montana State may be overrated, but #7 Eastern Washington is the real deal while Montana, North Dakota and Northern Arizona may be a little bit underrated.

These games are not played on the computer, and the actual results are probably going to differ.  The computers do not take into account anomalies like turnovers and penalties.  But if Montana State is truly overrated, Southern Utah will be the team that can prove it.  The T-birds may not finish the season higher than the middle of the conference, but at least for one week, or even two, they will be the talk of the Big Sky.

Weber State's Revised 2012 Prospects

Weber State nearly pulled off an upset against Eastern Washington last week.  The assumption that many are making is that the 'Cats may not win a game this season.  But they showed life in the 2nd half of the game last week, and that means hope.  If they can continue to score touchdowns while other score field goals, they will win some games.

Weber State's Sagarin predictor is 52.89
The home field adds 2.38 points

Remaining opponents from strongest to weakest.

Cal-Poly     61.67--predicts a 6 point loss
Montana     59.53--predicts a 4 point loss
@ Southern Utah     54.38--predicts a 4 point loss
@ UC Davis     53.38--predicts a 3 point loss
@ Sacramento State   46.02--predicts a 4 point win
@ Idaho State     39.80--predicts a 10 point win
Northern Colorado    36.59--predicts a 19 point win

Weber State is about as strong, according to the computer rankings, as UC Davis, and WSU has the Aggies on the road, but this is the first winnable game left on the schedule.  It is probably that UC Davis will win, but WSU has a good chance.  In fact, all of the remaining games are winnable for the 'Cats, as all predictions are within 1 score.

Again, games are played on the field by real people and not by a computer.  Against EWU, Weber should have lost by 12 according to the computer, and lost by only 6.  Against McNeese State, Weber State was the predicted winner, but WSU lost by 14.

BYU's Revised 2013 prospects, Utah State Could be the WAC Champion?, BYU's 2013 Schedule Complete?

BYU fans are upset after the loss at Boise State, and they should be.  For the second week in a row, the game was handed to the Cougars in the waning minutes, and the coaching staff and the team could not deliver.  There is a reason I say coaching staff.  The Utah game was lost in the 3^rd quarter, where too many mistakes were made to overcome in the 4^th quarter.  For much of the 2^nd half, BYU’s offens was in shell shock.  That happened because the Utah coaching staff made adjustments at half-time on defense that the BYU coaching staff was unprepared for.  I do not suppose that I need to rehash what happened at Boise State. 

BYU fans, however, should take heart.  I have looked at the Sagarin computer rankings, and BYU has done better than predicted.  BYU’s Sagarin predictor is 79.26 right now.  The home-field advantage add 2.38 points to the home team.  Here is how BYU has performed.

Washington State (predictor is at) 61.16—predicts a 20-point BYU victory, but BYU won by 24 points.
Weber State 52.89—predicts a 29-point BYU victory, BYU won by 32
Utah 74.96—predicts a 2-point BYU victory, Utah won by 3
Boise State 82.73—predicts a 6-point BSU victory, BSU won by 1

According to Sagarin, here BYU’s toughest remaining games from strongest to weakest

Notre Dame  88.40
Oregon State  78.46
Georgia Tech  77.11
Utah State  73.15
San Jose State  72.32
Hawaii  62.11
New Mexico State  53.82
Idaho  52.45

BYU has performed better than the Sagarin predictor in every game so far, except for the Utah game.  Here is remaining outcome for BYU as predicted by Sagarin.

Hawaii—Predicts a 19-point Cougar victory
Utah State—Predicts a 8-point BYU win
Oregon State—Predicts a 3-point BYU win
Georgia Tech—Predicts a 1-point GaTech win
Notre Dame—Predicts an 11-point Notre Dame win
Idaho—Predicts 29-point BYU win
San Jose State—Predicts a 4-point BYU win
New Mexico State—Predicts a 14-point BYU win

Right now, Sagarin predicts that BYU will finish the regular season 8-4.

In the Poinsettia Bowl, BYU would play the MWC #2 team, which should be Nevada.  They have a 75.21 predictor which means that BYU should win by 4.  That means that BYU should finish 9-4.

Here is the warning…Games are not played on paper or by the computer.  BYU is currently 88^th in points scored, and although the team has a fabulous defense, the offense is going to have to perform better than they did at Boise State and Utah in order to win.  If the offense does not settle down and score points, it will be easy for any game that the computers predict within 10 points to turn into losses.  Without better offensive performance, Utah State, Oregon State and San Jose State will turn into losses.  If this happens, BYU will end up below .500 for the first time since 2004 and for the first time in the Mendenhall era.  People will end up pointing to the incredulous 2-point decision at Boise and the offensive problems at Utah as the cause unless there is an even worse performance on the horizon.  If this happens, I guarantee that Brandon Doman and Mark Weber will not be back in 2013.

It may also be surprising to many that San Jose State this year is almost as strong at Utah State.  Personally, I think that Utah State is underrated.   But San Jose State is much improved over last year's team and should give BYU a good game.  If BYU is not prepared for this game...same goes for Utah State for that matter...San Jose State could pull off an upset.

On the flip side, BYU could beat Utah State, Oregon State and San Jose State as predicted.  They could win at Georgia Tech and they may even catch Notre Dame sleeping at home and finish with another 10-win regular season.  The next 3 home games are a turning point in BYU’s season this year.  Perhaps not all will be forgiven if BYU wins 10 games again, but much of the sting will be forgotten.

In other news: Louisiana Tech’s Tevin King is out for the season and this could clear the way for Utah State to go down in history as the last football champion of the Western Athletic Conference.  Never thought that would happen, did you?  Without super freshman King in the Louisiana Tech backfield, the WAC is now a 3-team race between La Tech, Utah State and San Jose State.

BYU has added Middle Tennessee to the 2013 schedule.  Officially, they have 11 opponents for 2013.  I suspect that the schedule is complete, because New Mexico State and Idaho will also be independent in 2013.  What I do not know is if Idaho is willing come to Provo for the 3^rd consecutive season, even if they are desperate for games.  Since BYU has the Hawaii exemption, it is a possibility that both New Mexico State and Idaho will end up on BYU’s 2013 schedule.  My hunch is that New Mexico State in Provo will be the 12^th opponent on the schedule, but I am not certain about Idaho.  

If BYU does not want to play in the 16,000 seat Kibbie Dome (which would give them 7 road games in 2013—something I’m sure Bronco Mendenhall does not want), they could play Idaho at a neutral site, like Joe Albi Stadium (Capacity 20,000) in Spokane, Martin Stadium (33,000) in Pullman (BYU is to play @ Washington State in 2013), Bronco Stadium in Boise (37,000) or even Bobcat Stadium (20,767) in Bozeman, Montana (within 200 miles of BYU-Idaho in Rexburg) or Washington-Grizzly Stadium (25,203) in Missoula, Montana (not very far from Moscow).  All of these stadiums have a larger seating capacity than the Kibbie Dome.   

In fact, sometime, BYU should consider finding temporary bleachers and playing a game at BYU-Idaho just for fun.  If Idaho needs to schedule BYU, why not consider it?  It would be cool to play a BYU/Idaho football game at BYU-Idaho, don't you agree?

Other possibilities for a neutral BYU/Idaho game include Jeld-Wenn Field in Portland, Oregon (33,000) or Century-Link Field (NFL Stadium) in Seattle.  If Idaho alumni are in these cities as claimed, any of these cities would be a good place for Idaho to have as a neutral-site game.

 

I speculate that the reasons these games have not been announced, yet, is because long-term deals have not yet been worked out.  Of course for both Idaho and New Mexico State, independence is just a bridge until they can work invites to other conferences (or until they give up and reclassify to the FCS).  The series with BYU would need to have a clause that the games could be called off if Idaho and New Mexico State receive those coveted invites.  However, because BYU is having trouble finding November games, they may be unwilling to have such an escape clause.  Especially since Idaho and New Mexico State have been so willing to play BYU late in the season.

Otherwise, BYU needs to return a favor to Idaho, who gave BYU a home game for 2 consecutive years, and play in the Kibbie Dome sometime.  If Idaho is going to survive as an independent, they should consider once again playing a game or two in the larger Joe Albi Stadium in nearby Spokane every season to better attract quality opponents.  This was once a regular practice for Idaho.  I know that BYU fans will be upset at me for saying so, but BYU owes Idaho a favor and should be willing to return it.  I can understand why BYU does not want to use the Hawaii exemption for a 7th road game in 2013.  That is why I am raising the possibility of a neutral-site game.

Report on the 9/22 games.

Southern Utah 49 Portland State 42

At Jeld-Wenn Field, SUU won their Big Sky Conference premier over Portland State in dramatic fashion.  Portland State held advantage until stalling in the 4th quarter.  During the final frame SUU scored on a Brad Sorensen to Mitch Jessop touchdown pass with 9:49 remaining and then LaVell Ika (I wonder who he might be named after) scored the go ahead TD with 1:35 left on the clock to give SUU their first lead.  The Vikings were scoreless in the 4th.  SUU had to stop Portland State from scoring at the 1-yard line as time expired.  I warned the Big Sky Conference not to underestimate the Thunderbirds.

SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen

Eastern Washington 32 Weber State 26

Even though Eastern Washington held a 20-3 halftime advantage, Weber State nearly completed a 2nd half comeback on homecoming.  But with less than 40 seconds remaining and about 40 yards from pay-dirt, the ball was slapped from the arm of Mike Hoke as he was getting ready to throw and recovered by the Eagles.  The game marked improved offensive performance by the Wildcats over the first three games of the season.

Weber State MVPs: WR Xavian Johnson and WR Jordan Clemente

Utah State 31 Colorado State 19

Last year in Logan, Colorado State won in overtime.  This year the Aggies made certain that such dramatics would not be needed as they easily win in Fort Collins.  If this game is a preview of what to expect from USU in the MWC, Aggie fans should look forward to a bright future.

USU MVP: RB Kerwynn Williams

Arizona State 37 Utah 7

In a real yawner, Utah suffered another case of BYU flu (more on that later) as the Sun Devils cruised to an easy victory in Tempe.  John White was held to only 18 yards rushing on 14 carries and the entire Ute offense was largely ineffective.

Utah MVP: WR Karl Williams

Predictions for the rest of the 7/22 games

Colorado State at Utah State

Colorado State added to USU's heartbreak last year.  But the tables should be turned this year, unless the Aggies have fallen into the same trap that Utah has where they look forward to playing BYU in 2 weeks.  The Rams have otherwise struggled since the last meet and are on the rebound.  These teams will be in the same conference next season. This could be the beginning of a new rivalry.

USU 35 CSU 24

Eastern Washington at Weber State

Eventually, the WSU has to find rhythm and move the ball.  Eventually the running game has to be established for the spread offense to be effective.  A tall order against a quality defense.  Doesn't make for a happy homecomming

EWU 31 WSU 14

Southern Utah at Portland State

It's been a long time coming, but finally here.  SUU gets to play their first ever Big Sky Conference game.  Too bad it is against Portland State.  The Vikings are not what the used to be since McCaffrey graduated.  The Thunderbirds are not what they used to be since Minifee graduated.  Should be a close, low-scoring game.

PSU 17 SUU 14

Utah at Arizona State

John Hays may have finally found his swagger.  He did an acceptable job against BYU last week.  Everyone know that this will soon be Travis Wilson's team, but that time is not yet.  Hopefully John White is able to play effectively.  ASU is a new team this year and not an easy team to beat in Tempe.

ASU 27 Utah 24

FCS Playoff Picture...Going into 9/22

It's still a little early, but here is the way the FCS playoff picture looks right now.

Automatic Bids

Big Sky--Montana State
Big South--Stony Brook
Colonial--Old Dominion
MEAC--Bethune-Cookman
Valley--North Dakota State
NEC--Albany
OVC--Jacksonville State
Patriot--Lehigh
SoCon--Wofford
Southland--Sam Houston State

Seedings

1.  North Dakota State (MVFC)
2.  Montana State (BSC)
3.  Sam Houston State (SL)
4.  Youngstown State (At-Large)
5.  Old Dominion (CAA)
6.  Wofford (SoCon)
7.  James Madison (At-Large)
8.  Northern Iowa (At-Large)
9.  Eastern Washington (At-Large)
10. Georgia Southern (At-Large)
11. The Citadel (At-Large)
12. Lehigh (Patriot)
13. Delaware (At-Large)
14. Illinois State (At-Large)
15. Montana (At-Large)
16. McNeese State (At-Large)
17. Stony Brook (Big South)
18. Jacksonville State (OVC)
19. Albany (NEC)
20. Bethune-Cookman (MEAC)
 
Last 4 in

McNeese State, Montana, Illinois State, Delaware

First 4 out

Towson, Appalachian State, New Hampshire, Central Arkansas