Monday, September 17, 2012

Time for Bronco to Step Aside?

BYU's offense in the 24-21 loss to Utah was plagued by miscues and missteps throughout the night, but still had a chance to win at the end.  For BYU fans, however, this has been an all-too-familiar script in big games for the Cougars. To his credit, Bronco Mendenhall has rarely lost close games while at the helm of the Cougars, especially to teams not based in Salt Lake City or Fort Worth, but that is little consolation to Cougar fans.  The Achilles heal of his predecessor was close games, especially against Utah and BCS automatic qualifiers.  Remember the 3-0 debacle?  But against the teams BYU plays every year, Bronco still has had his troubles.

The question for BYU fans, however, is has Bronco peaked at BYU?  The best team he had in Provo was the 2006 team, during John Beck's senior season.  The 2009 team finished with a higher ranking, but the last 3 seasons have not been so good for BYU.  It does not seem like the Cougars have been able to match or improve upon either of these seasons.  In spite of the success of these years, both teams never cracked the top 10 or qualified for a BCS bowl.

Of course, there are some BYU fans that are ready to jump on their team if they do not go unbeaten every season.  I was a student in the University of Nebraska system when they won their two national championships, I understand as much as any casual fan that it is really difficult to meet expectations when they are set so high.  Frank Solich never had a chance at Nebraska and it is possible that neither of LaVell Edwards successors has been given a fair shot.  Bronco Mendenhall is one that understands that there is a greater purpose than football for these kids, and it is not all about winning championships.  Many kids who play college football would never have a shot at a quality college education.  Right now, however, BYU is losing many recruits to Utah and to other schools.  And while many decry what has become of the BYU football program in recent seasons, no one can name a potential replacement for Bronco.  It would be hard to find someone who can fill areas where Bronco has been weak and keep the spiritual plane that the BYU football program has enjoyed in the Mendenhall era.

The pattern is much like the basketball program under Steve Cleveland.  He took over after the disasterous and forgettable 1-38 season.  BYU won a lot of games with Cleve at the helm, had some good players, even some that played in the NBA.  Cleve never won an NCAA tournament game at BYU.  He eventually recognized that he had taken the program as far as he could and stepped aside, letting Dave Rose take over.  While BYU has not returned to the elite 8, the basketball Cougars are probably as good now as they were during the Stan Watts era when they brought home 2 NIT championship trophies.  Similarly, Bronco has made the football Cougars winners.  He has never had a sub .500 season at Provo, even when he had an entitled freshman as the team quarterback. One difference between Bronco and Cleve is that Bronco has been a post-season winner.  But, is BYU's football program poised to take a step to the next level?

As an independent, the program will need to play at a higher level than they did as a member of the Mountain West Conference.  BYU consistently played 2 Automatic Qualifiers in the regular season as members of the MWC, plus the bowl game was usually against the PAC-10.  But the competition is getting harder.  In their first season of the independence, BYU played 4 automatic qualifiers, there are 5 on the schedule in 2012 and 6 on the schedule for 2013.  This does not include Boise State, who still won't be in an elite conference as a member of the Big East beginning next year.  The most elite schools ever played in one season in the Edwards era was 4.

In some areas, Mendenhall has been better than LaVell Edwards, most glaringly Bronco has been much better in the post-season that LaVell Edwards.  In other areas, some intangible areas, Mendenhall has been better than Edwards.  In some areas, Mendenhall has not even equaled Gary Crowton, the man who was fired leaving the job opening that Bronco filled.  Mendenhall has been no better than Crowton in his record against opponents from elite conferences and in his record against the toughest competition from within BYU's conference.  And there is Bronco's NFL draft record.  The overall record, however, speaks well of Bronco Mendenhall at BYU.

Mendenhall
8th season
Overall record: 68-25
Conference record: 39-9
Conference championships: 2
Bowl record: 5-2
Top 25 finishes: 5
Top 10 finishes: 0

Crowton
4 seasons
Overall record: 26-32
Conference record: 16-12
Conference Championships: 1
Bowl record: 0-1
Top 25 finishes: 1

Edwards
29 seasons
Overall record: 257-101-3
Conference record: 168-43-2
Conference Championships: 19
National Championships: 1
Bowl record: 7-14-1
Top 25 finishes: 12
Top 10 finishes: 3

There are four legitimate knocks against Bronco Mendenhall:  First, no player that has been recruited by Bronco Mendenhall has ever been drafted by the NFL.  That is true.  Those who were drafted by the NFL in the Mendenhall era were recruited by Crowton.  Edwards, on the other hand, was very good at getting his talent into the NFL.  This could be a major reason why many blue chip LDS athletes recently chose Utah or other schools instead of BYU.  The current BYU team has some stars, especially Cody Hoffman and Kyle Van Noy who are NFL-caliber players. 

The second is that BYU has never finished in the top 10 with Bronco as head coach.  BYU's highest ranking in the Mendenhall era was at the end of the season in 2009 at #12.  This comes from getting quality wins; more on that later. Edwards finished in the top 10 in 1983, 1984 and 1996.

The third legitimate knock against Bronco is one which hurts BYU fans the most.  His record against rivals.  Against Utah, Bronco is now 3-5.  Against TCU, he is 2-5.  He is 5-10 against the other two of the Big 3 in his day in the MWC...and since they have all left the conference.  And this is no improvement over the Crowton era.  Crowton was 1-4 vs the Utes.  During Crowton's time, the other beast of the conference was Sonny Lubick's Colorado State, Crowton's Alma Mater.  Crowton was 2-2 against the Rams.  Crowton had the same winning percentage against the other beasts in the conference that Mendenhall has.  It seems that if BYU has problems with execution or lack of preparation, it is against Utah and TCU, when the competition has been near perfect. Outside of Utah and TCU, Bronco has been very good against teams BYU plays regularly...something that was really Gary Crowton's undoing.

But neither Crowton nor Mendenhall has been as good as Edwards against rivals.  LaVell owned Utah until Ron McBride came along.  You may have heard that Ron McBride owned the series at Utah's head coach.  Nope, LaVell was still 6-5 against McBride.  He was 2-4 against Arizona State before they left for the PAC-10.  He was 2-3 against ASU after they left.  No one else in conference play has been able to come close to having a winning record vs. LaVell.  Sure, the were times when conference opponents were able to string victories against the Cougars.  Wyoming, San Diego State, Hawaii, Fresno State, Colorado State, New Mexico and Air Force all challenged Edwards for a year or two or even three in some cases.  LaVell even had his struggles against UTEP once or twice.  Overall, LaVell Edwards was very good against conference rivals, even when they had good seasons.

The fourth legitimate knock against Bronco has been his record against other quality teams outside the conference.  During the Mendenhall era, BYU has rarely dropped a game against a team that they should have beaten.  But Bronco's teams have had trouble against ranked opponents and quality teams ranked just outside the top 25.  Bronco's Cougars are just 4-10 against ranked teams.  Can you name all of the wins?  In 2006, BYU beat #15 TCU in Fort Worth.  The other 3 wins came in the 2009 season where they beat #3 Oklahoma at Jerry's Palace in Dallas, #19 Utah in the Max Hall Hates Utah overtime time and #20 Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.

For the record, LaVell Edwards was not that good against ranked opponents either.  But he did produce some memorable moments against ranked teams.  Another blogger called BYU's called BYU the most overrated team in history.  He said that the Cougars only own 7 victories against ranked opponents in their history, which is not true.  He was probably referring to the final polls of the season, and not at the time they played.  This is also just one blogger's opinion, and someone who has much more time on their hands than I do.

LaVell Edwards has at least 11 wins against teams who were ranked when BYU played them.  In 1974, BYU beat two ranked teams, #16 Arizona and # 16 Arizona State before losing to #17 Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.  In 1979, BYU beat #14 Texas A&M. In 1980, BYU beat #19 SMU in the Holiday Bowl.  In 1984, BYU beat #3 Pittsburgh to start the season, but Pitt did not finish the season with a winning record.  So far none of these 4 teams finished in the final polls, but they were all ranked at the time BYU played them.  In 1990, BYU beat #1 Miami and the Hurricanes finished the season at #3.  They also beat #25 Wyoming that season.  BYU beat #14 Penn State in 1992.  BYU beat #13 Texas A&M, #20 Wyoming and #16 Kansas State in the 1996 season.  LaVell had at least 1 win over a ranked team in 1 out of every 4 seasons.  Bronco is on the same pace as Coach Edwards where he has at least 1 win over a ranked team in 2 of his 7 seasons in Provo.  He has yet to play a ranked team in 2012.  But to get respect, BYU has to do this more often.  Perhaps 3 out of every 4 years.

During his years at BYU, LaVell Edwards was feared by other coaches in the country.  Bobby Bowden would not schedule BYU unless he knew that he was loaded.  Joe Paterno wanted to back out, so I have heard, of his game against BYU in Provo, even though BYU was not having their best season in 1992.  But the futility against quality opponents in the Mendenhall era extends to those who are not in the top 25.

In Bronco's tenure at BYU, the Cougars, so far are 11-12 vs those who belong to the elite conferences and Notre Dame. They have 3 games against elite conferences left to play so far this year.  The average score: 23.26 for, 23.43 against.  The record is not an improvement over the elite conferences in the Crowton era.  Gary Crowton was 5-5 against BCS-level competition, but his scoring average was 23 for and 26 against.  Crowton, for all the trouble he had as BYU's head coach never lost a season opener, and 3 of his 4 season openers were against the elites.  Crowton had trouble as the season wore on and the team got into conference play.  Bronco did not get his first win against an automatic qualifier until his 2nd trip to the Las Vegas Bowl.  He began 0-5 against the elites.

How about Edwards?  He was 35-41-1 against that level of competition.  His best period was the late 70s and early 80s, where he almost always won against the big boys.  The worst period was the early 1990s where he could not buy a win against that level of competition.  The only win during that period was the aforementioned home game against Penn State.


Here are ways in which Bronco can and should improve, or which his successor can improve at BYU.

1.  Help players get drafted by the NFL.  It will be easier to recruit blue chip athletes if they know that BYU can help them get to the NFL. 

2.  BYU has been in the bottom-half of the top-25 consistently in the Bronco Mendenhall era, but can't break into the top 10.  This can be helped by number 4.  BYU needs to have a top-10 finish as that exposure helps bring in quality athletes.

3.  Improve performance against Utah and other rivals.  This also help get quality athletes into your school.  Now that the Independence era is in full-swing, BYU's main rivals have switched.  Utah, Utah State, Boise State and Hawaii are BYU's main rivals.  These are must win games every year for BYU.

4.  More quality wins against ranked teams and teams just out of the top-25 and teams from the BCS conferences.  They have 3 chances against that level of competition this season, beginning Thursday night against Boise State.  Again, this leads to better exposure and more quality athletes.

Improving in these areas will help BYU better fulfill their mission and help the Cougars better serve their mission which is to bring a positive light on the school and church they represent.  If Bronco can't improve in these areas, it would be best for him to step aside for some who can.




Record against teams from the elite conferences.


Mendenhall

Year BYU BCS Opp Score
2005 3 BC 20

23 Notre Dame 49

28 California  35
2006 13 Arizona  16

20 BC 23

38 Oregon 8
2007 20 Arizona  7

17 UCLA 27

17 UCLA 16
2008 28 Washington 27

59 UCLA 0

21 Arizona  31
2009 14 Oklahoma 13

28 Florida State 54

44 Oregon State 20
2010 23 Washington 17

10 Florida State 34
2011 14 Ole Miss 13

16 Texas 17

10 Utah 54

38 Oregon State 28
2012 30 WSU 6

21 Utah 24


Oregon State


Notre Dame


Georgia Tech




Average 23.26087
23.43




Crowton


2001 44 California 16

41 Miss State 38
2002 42 Syracuse 16

19 Georgia Tech 28
2003 24 Georgia Tech 13

13 USC 35

14 Stanford 18
2004 20 Notre Dame 17

10 Stanford 37

10 USC 42




Average 23.7
26




Edwards


1927 32 Kansas State 9

3 Oregon State 29
1973 37 Oregon State 14

23 Iowa State 26
1974 34 Iowa State 7

6 Oklahoma St 16
1976 3 Kansas State 13

21 Oklahoma St 49
1977 39 Kansas State 0

19 Oregon State 24
1978 16 Arizona State 24

10 Oregon State 6

17 Oregon   16
1979 18 Texas A&M 17

37 Indiana 38
1980 28 Wisconsin 3

46 SMU 45
1981 41 Colorado 20

38 Washington St 36
1982 14 Georgia 17

17 Ohio State 38
1983 36 Baylor 40

37 UCLA 35

24 Missouri 21
1984 20 Pittsburgh 14

47 Baylor 13

24 Michigan 17
1985 28 BC 14

24 UCLA 27

31 Washington   3

7 Ohio State 10
1986 21 Washington 52

10 UCLA 31
1987 17 Pittsburgh 27

22 Texas   17

12 TCU 33

16 Virginia 22
1988 47 Texas 6

31 TCU 18

17 Miami 41

20 Colorado 17
1989 41 Washington State 46

45 Oregon 41

39 Penn State 50
1990 28 Miami 21

50 Washington State 36

16 Oregon 32

14 Texas A&M 65
1991 28 Florida State 44

23 UCLA 27

7 Penn State 22

13 Iowa   13
1992 10 UCLA 17

16 Notre Dame 42

30 Penn State 17

20 Kansas   23
1993 14 UCLA 68

20 Notre Dame 45

21 Ohio State 28
1994 21 Notre Dame 14

15 Arizona State 36

31 Oklahoma   6
1995 9 UCLA 23
1996 41 Texas A&M 37

17 Washington 29

19 Kansas State 15
1997 20 Washington 42

13 Arizona State 10
1998 31 Alabama 38

26 Arizona State 6

10 Washington  20
1999 35 Washington 28

40 Virginia 45

38 California 28
2000 3 Florida State 29

38 Virginia 35

28 Mississippi State 44

14 Syracuse 42








Average 24.02564
26.53

Blue denotes a bowl game

Note:
Arizona State joined the PAC-10 beginning in the 1978 season.
SMU and TCU were part of the Southwest conference until 1994.  Before it's demise, the SWC was an elite conference.
Utah joined the PAC-12 conference in 2011
Louisville was a member of Conference-USA when they met BYU in the Liberty Bowl after the 2001 season.

Sources:
CougarStats
College Football Data Warehouse
BYUCougars.com
Wikipedia 

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