Sunday, June 28, 2009

College Football Preview

State of the state in College Football

Brigham Young could not live up to high expectations last year, so they open the season with a game that almost no one believes that they will win. Some are saying that BYU could become the first one-loss BCS buster...but a lot would have to happen for that to take place....like beating Florida State at home a couple of weeks later. Winning all of the other games will help as well.

Max Hall, Harvey Unga and Dennis Pita return on offense but will be behind an inexperienced offensive line. This makes Tight End Pita the key player early in the season. He could keep the defense honest and help RB Harvey Unga have a big season.

In addition to taking on the Sooners in Arlington, TX, BYU has road games against Tulane, UNLV, San Diego State, Wyoming and New Mexico. In addition to the Seminoles, BYU hosts Utah State, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force and Utah. Having the Utes and Frogs in Provo should help BYU get another 10-win season and another Conference Championship. Many Cougars fans will be disappointed to get another Las Vegas Bowl, but I wouldn't be. At worst, BYU will finish 8-4. Best case would be 11 and 1...but if they can beat Oklahoma....I smell roses.

Utah

The motto on the hill this year is "rebuilding my @$." The Utes have lost about half their team, but have been recruiting very well. The biggest losses for Kyle Wittingham were his coordinators. If the QB does well, the Utes could be back in a big bowl this year. They have another favorable schedule. They have both BYU and TCU on the road. They also have to travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, where a lot of Rose Bowl dreams bite the dust. The Utes get Utah State, Louisville at home. Also traveling to Rice Eccles Stadium this year are Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State. In addition to Oregon and their fellow MWC BCS wannabees, the Utes travel to San Jose State, Colorado State and UNLV.

BYU and TCU will remember what the Utes did to them last year and will likely provide some sort of pay-back. Not very many beat the Ducks at their field. Utah could to 12 and 0 again, but that would spoil the fans. 9-3 is more likely. At worst, the Utes will have to spend the Holidays in Albuquerque with a 7-5 regular season finish.

Mountain West Predicted Finish

1. BYU
2. TCU
3. Utah
4. Air Force
5. Colorado State
6. New Mexico
7. UNLV
8. San Diego State
9. Wyoming

Utah State--With BYU, Utah, Fresno State and Hawaii on the home schedule last season, the Aggies could not average 15,000 at Romney Stadium, they were just under that mark last season. Too bad. They may or may not get another chance. Gary Anderson may be the right guy in Logan, but the school may be one year too late in getting him.

You are not going to right this ship with four of the first five on the road. Three of the four are BYU, Utah and Texas A & M. Puts a lot of pressure on the team with the conference opener at New Mexico State. A young team that may just choke on that one. The one home game in the middle of it is against the T-birds or SUU. This could be the only "W" for the Ags this season.

The remaining home games are against Nevada, La Tech, San Jose State and Boise State. Four of the best five schools in the WAC. I'm sorry that it looks like there will be only one home win in Logan this year. The other three conference road games are against Fresno State, Hawaii and Idaho. We are going to see double-digit losses in Logan again this season. The best we can hope for is 5 and 7, and this is if they get lucky a time or two. Likely to finish 1-11. It could be a complete disaster, if the T-Birds get lucky and the Ags see 0-12.

WAC Predicted Finish

1. Boise State
2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Louisiana Tech
5. San Jose State
6. Hawaii
7. Idaho
8. New Mexico State
9. Utah State

Weber State

All Wasatch Front college football teams will get a post season game with a 7-4 record. Weber State will get a shot at a National Championship. Fair? No, but don't blame the Cats. That is just the way things are in the Football Championship Subdivision.

Most of the stars from last year's conference championship team have returned. Seven cats are preseason all-Americans including QB Cameron Higgins and RB Trevyn Smith.

The season for McBride's boys begins in Laramie against Wyoming. Followed by a trip to Fort Collins to play the Rams. No one will be sweating if the Cats begin 0-2.

There is one big conference road game. A game in Missoula against Montana. Washington Stadium will be packed with nearly 24,000. (Hint, drive toward the South end of the Stadium in the 4th Quarter.) Another interesting conference road game is at Portland State, where Jerry Glanville is doing for PSU what he did for the Houston Oilers last decade. (The "run and shoot" is so 1980s.) In 2007, WSU beat PSU in the highest scoring game in NCAA history. 73-68 was the final. Weber also has Eastern Washington and Northern Colorado on the road. At home, WSU will host Idaho State in the opener, Montana State, Sacramento State for Homecoming, Northern Arizona and the regular season finale is against Cal Poly. That last game could end up being a NCAA playoff play-in game. The Mustangs come from a conference that does not have an automatic berth, but Cal Poly usually wins it.

I feel that if the Wildcats manage to stay healthy, they will do no worse than 2nd in the conference and get a return invite to November Madness. 9-2 would be fantastic, 7-4 is realistic. At worst, 5-7.

Big Sky Predicted Finish

1. Montana
2. Weber State
3. Eastern Washington
4. Montana State
5. Sacramento State
6. Portland State
7. Idaho State
8. Northern Colorado
9. Northern Arizona

College Football Preview

My take, which I'm sure a lot of people will mock, of the 2009 College Football Season is coming...