Wasatch Swagger: November 2019

1. Scenario #1, PAC-12 and Big 12 go to 14.

This one seems obvious, but I am not too certain that BYU will get into either conference if they go to 14. But it is likely that a PAC-14 will include BYU if the Big 12 also expands.

Utah--Stays in the PAC-12
BYU--Joins PAC-12 with Boise State.
Utah State--Stays in MW. NDSU or Montana joins MW.
Weber State and SUU--Stay in the Big Sky.
Dixie State--Joins Big Sky to replace Montana (if Montana joins MW.) Otherwise remains FCS independent.

2. Scenario #2, Texas and Oklahoma join PAC-12.

Utah--Stays in the PAC-12.
BYU--Joins Big 12 for football only and keeps other sports in WCC. Cincy, Houston and UCF also join Big 12.
Utah State, Weber State, SUU and Dixie--Remain where they are at.

3. Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Standford and California become independent.

Utah--Stays in PAC-12
BYU--Either joins PAC-12 with Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State or remains independent.
Utah State--Remains in MW
Weber State--Joins MW with NDSU, Montana and Eastern Washington
SUU--Remains in Big Sky
Dixie State--Joins Big Sky and San Diego comes in as a football-only school.

4. Big 10 breaks up and conferences become smaller

Maryland and Rutgers are cast off. A new conference similar to the Big East was forms with Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Central Florida and South Florida

Sub-scenario #1

Utah--Stays in PAC-12 which remains at 12
BYU--Joins Big 12 to replace West Virginia
Utah State and other schools remain where they are at.

Sub-scenario #2--PAC-12 returns to 8

Utah, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington State are cast out of the PAC-12, form a new conference with BYU, Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State

Utah State--Remains in the MW
Weber State and SUU--Remain in the Big Sky, but the Big Sky also contracts back to 8 for football. Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, Idaho State, Weber State, SUU and NAU remain. The Big West re-sponsors football adding Sacramento State and Portland State as full members. Dixie State, San Diego join as football-only members

Dixie State--Joins the Big West for Football but remainder of programs are in the WAC.

Sub-scenario #3

No other realignment happens. Big 12 decides to remain at 9. Holds championship game, anyway. So sorry BYU fans.

5. Led by California Schools who want to pay athletes, several schools break off and form new College Sports Premiere League. This completely messes everything else and will be the subject of my next blog.

To be continued...

In Sports, the following could happen in Utah before the ball drops on January 1, 2030.

There are four potential game changers on the Utah sports scene coming in the next decade. Those are: 1. The continued population and economic boom in the Beehive state over the next 10 years. This will be felt most, according to economists, in Utah and in Washington Counties. 2. The paying of athletes for fair use of their image and likeness. 3. Another Olympic bid. 4. Climate change.

1: Changes that will result from economic growth. The biggest gainer in the economic game in Utah will be in Utah Valley. The Salt Lake Valley is nearly full. South Davis County is nearly full. Of course, because of the favorable climate, Washington county will grow. But the most growth will be in Utah Valley, Tooele Valley, North Davis County, Summit County, Box Elder County and the Cache Valley. This bodes well if the team you root for is either Utah State, Utah Valley and Weber State. Does this mean that Utah has peaked because of where the population growth is. Not likely. Nor does it spell doom for BYU. It means that you will have more local athletes to choose from. Therefore, if Weber State wants to move up to the FBS and if UVU wants to start football, they will not face as stiff of competition for those athletes as they do today.

The biggest threat is for the top athletes in the state. Utah will become another recruiting hot bed. It will be more difficult for Utah and BYU to land the top athletes in the state. They had better be on their game and be relevant if they want to land them.

2: One of the things that will be more difficult for BYU and Utah in the next decade is that athletes will be able to make money from selling their image and likeness. The California fair pay law will eventually become the law of the land throughout the US. This will hurt smaller market programs like Alabama and Nebraska, while favoring programs in California, Texas, New York and Florida. Expect Rutgers, UConn, Boston College, USC and UCLA and other big city programs to benefit. The PAC-12 will eventually be flush with money. Texas A&M, Georgia and North Carolina will dominate the SEC. Oregon State and Washington State will struggle.

3: What will another Olympic games do for Utah? Especially if the climate remains dry and warmer. Will the Salt Lake 2030 team store man-made snow in the High Uintas to bring down to the Wasatch Front in February 2030? Where will the new Olympic Village be? Will the Jazz get a new arena as a result?

4: What could happen to Utah's ski industry if rain replaces snow in the early and late parts of the season? Will the hydro-electric industry be phased out in favor of greener technologies? Will speed week at the Bonneville Salt Flats go the way of the Widow-maker hill climb?

Here are my predictions for what we will see in before 2030 in Utah.

Predictions

1. Will BYU get an invite to either the PAC-12 or Big-12? No, not really, but something like it. College football is going to have a harder time generating revenue in the decade. Streaming will eventually replace the big cable contract. Many universities are not prepared for this, but BYU is. BYU-TV is ahead of the game, ready for streaming and a model that will help big college programs survive the next 10 years. Other schools are not prepared. Whatever comes out of the pending mid-decade realignment, BYU is well-placed to endure and thrive. BYU has the facilities to take advantage when YouTube and other streaming services take over.

In the meantime, the mega-conference model that the Big 10 has may prove to be unsustainable. Nebraska, Maryland and Rutgers are proving to be programs that don't belong and we may soon see the Big 10 coming closer to it's traditional roots, leaving the relative "noobs" on the outside. It remains to be seen how this will all turn out. BYU fans should not panic about their school being left out much longer.

I don't think Utah will leave the PAC-12. There are currently four other markets that are smaller than Salt Lake City even if you leave out Davis, Utah and Weber Counties. Three of them do not have the backing of a major sports apparel company. But that is a discussion for another blog.

2. Weber State will play in a bowl game. Weber States insurgence in football isn't only football, but the entire sports program. It will become obvious in the next few years that WSU athletics is benefiting from the economic growth in Utah and is leaving the rest of the Big Sky Conference behind. The MW will add another Utah school, especially if Boise State get an invite from a larger conference, but that school will not be BYU. It will be Weber State.

Replacing Weber State in the Big Sky will be easy. It will be Dixie State.

3. Salt Lake City wins the bid to host the 2030 Winter Games. This would be higher on the list, but the event happens in 2030. The IOC, after Los Angeles, will realize that visiting cities that have hosted before will first, motivate cities to keep venues in good working order. It will also be a chance to spend less money on the games as older venues are used and refurbished. It will also help more cities bid as they know that in 20 to 24 years, the chance to host another games will help keep the costs reasonable.

Expect that this time, Rio Tinto Stadium, Snowbird, Alta and the south part of the Salt Lake Valley to play a bigger role.

4. The Utah Jazz will get a new arena. The currently named Vivint Smart Home Arena is now the third oldest venue in the NBA, behind Madison Square Garden and the Target Center in Minneapolis. Although the Jazz are no threat to relocate anywhere, expect a new arena in Downtown Salt Lake to later in the 2020's. This arena will be better suited to Hockey than the current one. Both will be used for the games. I would expect that the new arena will have features that the current one does not. For example, perhaps a small convention center and a luxury hotel will be attached.

5. The Wasatch Front will gain a new Major League Sports team. Will it be the NFL, MLB or NHL? Likely, it will be an MLB team that will find it's way to Salt Lake. Why? We all know about the problems with playing on Sunday in the LDS-oriented market, today. But Salt Lake is becoming less and less predominately LDS. However, many believe baseball is the most likely sport that will come.

There has been some talk of Tampa and Montreal sharing a team. Salt Lake and Las Vegas could share an MLB team, like the A's should their proposals to remain in Oakland fall through. It makes sense. Once the Raiders migrate inland to Sin City, the Wasatch Front and Las Vegas will each have 4 of the 5 major sports between the two cities. Vegas with Hockey and Football. Salt Lake is the home of Basketball and Soccer.

In spite of all the talk, I don't believe that the A's and the Rays will be on their way out of their towns anytime soon. However, baseball expansion could find its way to the Wasatch Front, but Salt Lake is not one of the top cities most often mentioned. Portland is usually at the top of the list. However, part of the equation of getting is finding a place to build a stadium. The Rose City has turned its old minor league park into the home of the MLS Timbers. For soccer, it has become one of the toughest venues for the visitors. Therefore, no one will be no going back to play baseball at that site. Finding another place in the city to build a stadium in Portland is not going to be easy. If baseball comes to Portland, it will be in the suburbs, like Beaverton, the home of Nike.

On the other hand, Salt Lake City has a minor league ball park near downtown that could easily be expanded. It wouldn't take major league project to turn the current Smith's ballpark into a larger venue. It is located in a part of town that needs a face-lift. SLC may easily approve the project because of what will come with it.

If not baseball, then the NHL may find its way to Utah. The current venue that hosts the Utah Grizzlies may not be easily expandable. However, the majority of NHL teams share a venue with the NBA. If the Jazz get a new arena, an NHL franchise may join them in the project.

The 2010s have not seen much expansion in the major sports leagues, except in Major League Soccer. The US population is getting to the point where every league can reasonably support 40 teams. It is still difficult to imagine a 40-team NFL including Salt Lake City. It is hard to imagine a 40-team MLB or a 40-team NHL passing up the Wasatch Front.

6. The NFL may not come to Utah, but the NFL will eventually need a farm system to develop players. Arguably, the current system of hoarding athletes in a few NCAA programs has come a a cost to the quality of play and the depth of talent in the NFL. Besides, it is not really in the interest of the NFL to allow the NCAA to be their primary gatekeeper. Lack of talent could also be the result of other factors, such as more choices for younger Americans, the lack of the sport catching on overseas and other similar factors. But the days when a backup quarterback could lead a team to the Super Bowl are nearly a thing of the past. Most teams lack a quality backup quarterback and lack depth at other key positions. Also consider the talent that can't hack even the lighter academic standards that the FCS and Division II offer. Plus, there are fewer FCS and Division II schools sponsoring football. It is becoming obvious that the NFL needs to spend money on a developmental league. Such a league should find a home in Salt Lake City.

7. Other sports, like Lacrosse and Rugby are here to stay. Perhaps not at the professional level, but at the college and high school levels. Who knows if the Utah Warriors will last, but something will take hold.

8. Speaking of new, to respond to state growth, there will be a new college and a new college basketball program in the state. Part of the plan for the state prison, once a new one is built, is to reserve part of the property for a new college. It could be a satellite campus of UVU or Weber State, but why not it's own 4-year school. Call it Lone Peak State College. There may be more than one. Perhaps one of the 4 campuses of Salt Lake Community college could be converted to an independent 4-year college...most likely the South City Campus. This will not only take pressure off of UVU and WSU, but could also allow Utah and Utah State to further increase their academic standards. Not like Utah doesn't compete against Stanford and other colleges from California. Need to make the degree mean as much in order to compete for athletes who are serious about academics. Right now, Utah really can't.

9. Soccer is growing in the United States. Expect BYU and Utah and USU and Weber State to add men's soccer to their sports offerings. Of course there is Title IX, and that rhymes with Lacrosse...or Women's Lacrosse. (OK, not exactly, but work with me on this one.)

10. Something not so wild for my last prediction. Either the Jazz or RSL or a men's college basket in the state will hire a female head coach. It's about time, anyway. If a heterosexual male can coach a women's sports team, then a female can coach the men. Greg Popovich, current coach of the San Antonio Spurs, has an heir apparent who is a woman. Others will follow. It will quickly happen at all levels of sports, from junior high to the majors.

Wasatch Swagger

Saturday, November 30, 2019

5 college realignment scenarios and how they will effect Utah

Thursday, November 14, 2019

What a 40 team NBA could look like

Monday, November 11, 2019

What a 40-team MLB could look like

Sunday, November 10, 2019

What a 40-team MLS could look like.

10 sports predictions for Utah in the 2020s

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