5 college realignment scenarios and how they will effect Utah

1.  Scenario #1, PAC-12 and Big 12 go to 14.

This one seems obvious, but I am not too certain that BYU will get into either conference if they go to 14.  But it is likely that a PAC-14 will include BYU if the Big 12 also expands.

Utah--Stays in the PAC-12
BYU--Joins PAC-12 with Boise State.
Utah State--Stays in MW.  NDSU or Montana joins MW.
Weber State and SUU--Stay in the Big Sky.
Dixie State--Joins Big Sky to replace Montana (if Montana joins MW.)  Otherwise remains FCS independent.

2.  Scenario #2, Texas and Oklahoma join PAC-12.

Utah--Stays in the PAC-12. 
BYU--Joins Big 12 for football only and keeps other sports in WCC.  Cincy, Houston and UCF also join Big 12.
Utah State, Weber State, SUU and Dixie--Remain where they are at.

3.  Texas, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, Standford and California become independent.

Utah--Stays in PAC-12
BYU--Either joins PAC-12 with Boise State, UNLV and Colorado State or remains independent.
Utah State--Remains in MW
Weber State--Joins MW with NDSU, Montana and Eastern Washington
SUU--Remains in Big Sky
Dixie State--Joins Big Sky and San Diego comes in as a football-only school.

4.  Big 10 breaks up and conferences become smaller

Maryland and Rutgers are cast off.  A new conference similar to the Big East was forms with Maryland, Rutgers, West Virginia, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Central Florida and South Florida

Sub-scenario #1

Utah--Stays in PAC-12 which remains at 12
BYU--Joins Big 12 to replace West Virginia
Utah State and other schools remain where they are at.

Sub-scenario #2--PAC-12 returns to 8

Utah, Colorado, Oregon State, Washington State are cast out of the PAC-12, form a new conference with BYU, Boise State, UNLV and Fresno State

Utah State--Remains in the MW
Weber State and SUU--Remain in the Big Sky, but the Big Sky also contracts back to 8 for football.  Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, Idaho State, Weber State, SUU and NAU remain.  The Big West re-sponsors football adding Sacramento State and Portland State as full members.  Dixie State, San Diego join as football-only members

Dixie State--Joins the Big West for Football but remainder of programs are in the WAC.

Sub-scenario #3

No other realignment happens.  Big 12 decides to remain at 9.  Holds championship game, anyway.  So sorry BYU fans.


5.  Led by California Schools who want to pay athletes, several schools break off and form new College Sports Premiere League.  This completely messes everything else and will be the subject of my next blog. 

To be continued...