Sunday, December 30, 2018

Who will be coaching Utah Schools in 2025--after the 2018 Season

BYU

Current Coach--Kalani Sitake
Coach in 2025--Kalani Sitake

As long as Sitake can win games, don't expect a change in Provo

Utah

Current Coach--Kyle Whittingham
Coach in 2025--Morgan Scalley

Where is KW-- Enjoying a well-earned retirement
Scalley, who is a Ute for life, is being groomed to replace him

Utah State

Current Coach--Gary Anderson
Coach in 2025--Gary Anderson

I don't think there is anything that will get Anderson out of Logan any longer.

Weber State

Current Coach--Jay Hill
Coach in 2025--Colton Swan

Where is coach Hill: Coaching at a nearby FBS School.  Likely Nevada.

Southern Utah

Current Coach--Demario Warren
Coach in 2025--Justin Walterscheid

Where is Demario--At UC Davis, his Alma Mater, after Dan Hawkins returns to the FBS

Dixie State

Current Coach--Paul Peterson
Coach in 2025--Paul Peterson

Dixie is finishing their transition to the FCS from Division II.  No reason for their coach to go anywhere.

How an 8-team, 12-team, 16-team, 24-team and 32 team playoff would look in FBS football

8 team playoff:

The bowl structure is essentially the same.  You have the New Year's Six, which would be the same six bowl, the Orange, Sugar, Rose, Cotton, Fiesta and Peach bowls.  I will explain how they fit into the structure.  During Sunday after the conference championship games, only two of the six bowls make invites.  This year, that would have been the Fiesta and Peach bowls.  The other bowls wait for the outcome of the quarterfinals.

The round of 8 is hosts at the home field of the top 4 seeds the week after the conference championship games.  The winners will go to the Cotton and Orange Bowls.  The losers to the Rose and Sugar bowls.

The semi finals are played the Saturday between Christmas and New Years day.  On years when Christmas and New Years Day fall on a Saturday, they are played on the following Monday.

The finals are played the Saturday after New Year's Day.  If New Year's Day is on a Saturday, they are played the following Monday.

The participants are the conference champion for each of the Power 5 schools, the top ranked Group of 5 school and 2 at large bids.  This year, that would have been Notre Dame and Georgia.

If this had happened in 2018, the round of 8 is played on Saturday, December 8 with the following games.

Cotton and Rose Bowl Bracket
Washington@Alabama
Central Florida@Clemson
Winners to the Cotton Bowl, losers to the Rose Bowl

Orange and Sugar Bowl Bracket
Ohio State@Notre Dame
Georgia@Oklahoma
Winners to the Orange Bowl, losers to the Sugar Bowl

Fiesta Bowl likely would have been Washington State vs. LSU
Peach Bowl would still have been Florida and Michigan

All other Bowl Matchups would have been the same, except how the PAC-12 aligned.  With the following changes.  Utah goes to the Alamo Bowl, Stanford to the Holiday Bowl, Oregon to the Sun Bowl, Arizona State to the RedBox Bowl, California to the Las Vegas Bowl with Boise State taking the last slot to the Cheeze-It's bowl and Wyoming getting the weather-canceled First Responder's bowl.

12-team playoff

In this one, the Power 5 champions get a bid, the two highest-ranked g5 get a bid and there are 5 at large bids. 

The schedule is a little more compact.  The first round, involving 4 teams is played the week after the conference championship games.  The losers of this round are eligible for bowls.  The second round, involving 8 teams is played the following Saturday.  Each of these will be at the site of the higher-seeded team.  The winners in the round of 8 go to the semi-final bowls, the losers of the first two rounds will go to other bowls.

The New Year's Six will become the New Year's Eight, being joined by six secondary bowls on a rotating basis.  Those may not be bowl games that exist today.  I see them as bowls in NFL stadiums in mostly warm-whether climates that currently are not part of the NY 6: for example Santa Clara (in Levi's Stadium), Las Vegas (In the new Raider's Stadium), Houston (NRG Park), Tampa (Raymond James Stadium), Los Angeles (new Rams/Chargers Stadium) and New York (Met Life Field).

(Yes, I know that New York is not a warm-weather climate...but if you insist on an indoor filed, you get Detroit or Minneapolis...wouldn't you rather go to New York? New Orleans, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta and Phoenix already have big-important bowl games.  The new LA stadium and the Rose bowl are miles apart.)

This year, this is how it would have worked out:

The automatic qualifiers: Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Washington, Central Florida and Fresno State

The At large: Notre Dame, Georgia, Michigan, Florida and LSU

The Brackets:

Orange Bowl Bracket:

Fresno State at Georgia on December 8
Winner Plays at Alabama on December 15

LSU at Central Florida on December 8
Winner Plays at Oklahoma on December 15

Cotton Bowl Bracket

Washington at Michigan on December 8
Winner Plays at Notre Dame on December 15

Florida at Ohio State on December 8
Winner Plays at Clemson on December 15

The final bowl bids will go out on December 16.  If Washington and Michigan lose before the round of 8, you could still get a quality Big 10 vs Pac 12 Rose Bowl games.

16-team playoff

This works similar to the 12-team playoff, except all conference champions are in.  You get six at-large teams.

The automatic qualifiers: Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Washington, Central Florida, Fresno State, UAB, Northern Illinois and Appalachian State

The At-Large: Notre Dame, Georgia, Michigan, Florida, LSU and Penn State

The Brackets

Orange Bowl Bracket

Tuscaloosa Region
Appalachian State at Alabama
Washington at Central Florida

Norman Region
Fresno State at Oklahoma
Florida at Georgia

Cotton Bowl Bracket

South Bend Region
Northern Illinois at Notre Dame
LSU at Ohio State

Clemson Region
UAB at Clemson
Penn State at Michigan

At this point, people are going to flame me for saying that Appalachian State does not deserve to be on the same field as Alabama in the post season.  I will not argue that point.  However, sometime a Sun Belt team will put on the glass slipper and beat the SEC team.  That is why we call it March Madness for basketball.  Let's do it for football.

24 team playoff.

A 24 team playoff is not practical with conference championship games.  Therefore, we have to pretend that each conference division is it's own conference.  Right now, only the Big 12 and the Sun Belt do not have divisions.  You would have 17 Automatic bids and 7 at large births

The automatic qualifiers: UCF, Memphis, Clemson, Pittsburgh,  Oklahoma, Ohio State, Northwestern, Middle Tennessee, UAB, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Fresno State,
Washington, Utah, Georgia, Alabama and Appalachian State

The At-Large: Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida, LSU, Penn State and Washington State

Schedule
Round of 24--December 1
Round of 16--December 8
Round of 8--December 15
Round of 4--December 29
Championship--January 5

The Brackets

Tuscaloosa Region
Boise State at #16 Northwestern on December 1
Winner plays at at #1 Alabama on December 8

Buffalo at #9 Washington on December 1
Winner plays at at #8 Central Florida on December 8

Norman Region

Middle Tennessee at #12 Penn State December 1
Winner plays at #5 Georgia on December 8

Northern Illinois at #13 Washington State on December 1
Winner plays at #4 Oklahoma on December 8

South Bend Region
UAB at #14 Utah on December 1
Winner Plays at #3 Notre Dame on December 8

Memphis at #11 LSU on December 1
Winner plays at at  #6 Ohio State

Clemson Region
Appalachian State at #10 Florida on December 1
Winner plays at #7 Michigan on December 8

Pittsburgh at #15 Fresno State on December 1
Winner plays at #2 Clemson on December 8

Yes, there are still some bowls, but no more major bowls.  There are minor bowls to give teams with a winning record consolation.

32 Team Playoff

Same 17 automatic qualifiers, but now there are 15 at-large teams.

The automatic qualifiers: UCF, Memphis, Clemson, Pittsburgh,  Oklahoma, Ohio State, Northwestern, Middle Tennessee, UAB, Buffalo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Fresno State,
Washington, Utah, Georgia, Alabama and Appalachian State

The At-Large: Notre Dame, Michigan, Florida, LSU, Penn State, Washington State, Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Missouri, Iowa State, Utah State and Army

The schedule is:
Round of 32--December 1
Round of 16--December 8
Round of 8--December 15
Round of 4--December 29
Championship--January 5

The Brackets

Tuscaloosa Region
Utah at #16 West Virginia
Appalachian State at #1 Alabama

Iowa State at #9 Washington
Boise State at  #8 Central Florida

Norman Region
Fresno State at #12 Penn State
Pittsburgh at #5 Georgia on

Texas A&M at #13 Washington State
Buffalo at #4 Oklahoma

South Bend Region
Syracuse at #14 Kentucky
Middle Tennessee at #3 Notre Dame

Northwestern at #11 LSU on
Utah State at  #6 Ohio State

Clemson Region
Missouri at #10 Florida
Army at #7 Michigan

Mississippi State at #15 Texas
UAB at #2 Clemson

If you are going to go beyond 32 teams, you will need to go back to 11 game seasons and you may as well merge the FCS with the FBS.

Monday, July 16, 2018

Who will be coaching Utah Colleges in 2025.

BYU

Current Coach: Kalani Sitake
Coach in 2025: Jay Hill

What happens: After a losing season in 2018, Kalani Resigns.  Successful Weber State Head Coach Jay Hill is hired in his place and turns the program around.

Where is Sitake--Coaching at Dixie State.

Utah

Current Coach: Kyle Whittingham
Coach in 2025: Morgan Scalley

What Happens: Whittingham retires from coaching after 2020 season.  Ute for life Scalley takes over.  Utes go to Rose Bowl

Where is Whitt--Enjoying his retirement

Utah State

Current Coach: Matt Wells
Coach in 2025: Ed Lamb

What Happens: A-Rod fails in AZ, enter Wells.  Lamb moves to Logan

Where is Wells--Head Coach at Arizona.

Weber State

Current Coach: Jay Hill
Coach in 2025: Justin Ena

What Happens: After Hill leaves from Provo, Ena follows his footsteps and enjoys some of the same success.

Where is Hill--Coaching at BYU

Southern Utah

Current Coach: Demario Warren
Coach in 2025: Justin Waltersheid

What Happens: Demoario Warren leaves Cedar City and takes the head coaching job at his alma mater, UC Davis. Waltersheid continues to build on the what Lamb and Warren did.

Where is Warren--Coaching at UC Davis

Dixie State

Current Coach: Rick Worman
Coach in 2025: Fesi Sitake

What Happens: DSU joins the Big Sky in 2020, but gets different leadership.  Enter Fesi, who hires his cousin and former boss as defensive coordinator.

Where is Worman--Assistant at another FCS program

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

College Football by 2030

College Football will yet undergo some changes.  These may are may not have the same impact that the realignment craze of 10 years ago had, but they will be significant.  Here are some things that I see happening.

NFL Minor League and Farm System--Most other sports offer an alternative to college for entry at the top professional level, the NFL still does not.  The NBA will soon have a stronger G-League and there will be a real alternative path to the NBA, the NFL will only remain a hold out for so long.  The main barrier is the expense of such a system.  But there is a lot of talent that can't get to the NFL because so many kids can't make it in college.  Gradually, the NFL will implement a farm program and kids who want to play in the NFL will have another path to get there.

The difference between the top college programs and the bottom college programs will begin to disappear.  Eventually, the youth of America will realize that being a starting quarterback anywhere is better than being a 3rd string quarterback at Alabama.  Kids who can't play will transfer.  Kids who don't believe that they will play will never sign.

The money will even out.  ESPN and other top sports outlets are not seeing the viewership that they used to.  Network and cable TV are gradually being replaced with streaming.  If you are a fan of McNeese State living in Seattle, you will be able to see your Cowboys play live.  Those options are not available today, but they soon will be.  This will take away the financial advantage that the Power 5 conferences have.  This may not completely happen by 2030, but it will be well underway.

Youth academies are springing up all over the United States for Soccer.  Other sports will soon follow the model.  Eventually, it will catch on with football.  The consequences of this will be the most reaching of all changes.  This will allow high schools to spend less on sports and in some cities, many high schools will not have sports programs at all.  The academy kids will become the most sought after college recruits.

As there are more options for us to do with our time, there will be fewer attending games in person.  College stadiums will be smaller, but offer more amenities and focus on improving the student, booster and general fan experience.

Finally, there will be rule changes for the safety of the athletes.  This could include the elimination of kickoffs, punts and the 3-point stance, which are known to increase the likelihood of concussion.  There will also be improved equipment.  Injuries will always be a part of the sport.  However, many steps will be taken to make the game safer.

These are some of the changes I have been reading about from other sources.  What are some changes you see coming?

Tuesday, February 27, 2018

My Proposal to End Tanking in the NBA

I have figured it out...how to end tanking in the NBA.  Tanking is where teams loose all the games they can in order to increase the chances of getting the best pick in the draft.  I have four words that will fix this.  Everyone makes the playoffs.

Now hear me out.  This isn't what you think it is.  This isn't the obvious answer...which is you add one more round to the playoffs, and with 30 teams, each conference leader gets a first round bye.  This is where the bottom 9 teams have a mini play-in tourney.  The winners of this mini tournament will be guaranteed to have draft picks 1-4 the next season.  Involving teams 7 & 8 in the conference standings will have teams that can, vie to be in the top 6 and have the first week of the playoffs to rest.

Here is how it will work.

We have 15 teams in each conference.  We will add 3 additional rounds to the playoffs, each win or go home.  This will take 5 days.

Day 1, there will be 3 games in each conference

#15 will visit #10
#14 will visit #11
#13 will visit #12

Day 2, travel day

Day 3, there will be 2 games in each conference

The lowest remaining seed from Day 1 will will visit #9
The second lowest remaining seed from Day 1 will visit the highest remaining seed

Day 4, travel day

Day 5

The lowest remaining seed from Day 3 will visit #7
The highest remaining seed from Day 3 will visit #8

For the next round of the playoffs

The lowest remaining seed from Day 5 in each conference will face conference seed #1
The highest remaining reed from Day 5 in each conference will face conference seed #2
The rest of the playoffs will be as expected.  #6 faces #3 and #5 faces #4.

The Winners of Day 5 will be guaranteed draft picks 1, 2, 3 and 4, determined by lottery.  These picks are not trade-able before the championship is decided.  If you have traded a first round pick for that season, the team that you traded the pick to will get pick #5 (or 6 or 7 or 8).  The next picks, in a non-trade scenario, would be #5, #6, #7 and #8 will go to the #5 and #6 teams of the conferences determined by lottery.  After this, the remaining teams will draft according to record.

What is the motivation if every team gets into the playoffs, especially to become the #5 and #6 teams.  First of all, teams #5 and #6 will get an extra 5 days to rest before the playoffs begin.  Second, they are guaranteed to extend their seasons by at least 4 games.  They are guaranteed two more home games.  Every team from team #7 to team #12 is only guaranteed one extra home.  The others are not guaranteed any.  Six teams in each conference will have to win three games to get into the lottery.  You want the easier path to the best draft picks.  Right now, the easiest path is to lose.  That is what needs to change.  This is just one idea.

Friday, January 12, 2018

The Truth about Immigration is Probably Offensive to All

After Donald Trump's tirade on immigration where he said that he did not want people coming into the United State from "shit-hole" countries is offensive even if you take out the profanity.  The only thing that I can say in Trump's defense is that the countries he spoke of are not exactly the garden spot of the world.

If you go back to the 1600s and 1700s, England, Scotland and Wales were the, as Donald Trump says, the 'shit hole' countries of the world.  That is why people left to come to North American.  When the immigrants arrived in the New World, they brought with them diseases like plague, small pox and many others, killing much of the population that was here without even loading a musket.

However, there is a reason people wanted to come here there, and there is a reason people want to come here now.

Donald Trump is a sorry excuse of a man, but that is not what I wish to talk about at this time.  It is about immigration.  And hold you pants on, because I am about to say something very offensive.

The United States does not have an immigration problem.

At least it is nothing like the Native Tribes had to deal with in the 1600s and 1700s.  That was an uncontrollable immigration problem.

What we have today is a perception problem.  We make it worse than it really is. 

According to Census estimates, about 13% of the total population of the country is foreign born.  This is the highest it has been in the past 100 years.  In 1910, about 15% were foreign born.  Toady, nearly 1/4 of our foreign-born residents are from Mexico.  Less than 1% are from the countries that Donald Trump mentioned as "shit hole" countries. 

Studies show that immigrants are beneficial to our country, don't increase crime and don't add to the welfare burden.  The only real problem is that the federal government decides who gets to come into the country.  But the burden for educating them, and the burden if they need welfare, falls upon the states.  As immigration has gone from about 4% in the 1970 to 13% today, the states are feeling an increased burden.  The US states also get no compensation from the government for the immigrants that live in any particular state.

The problem is like working at the complaint desk at your local Mercedes Benz dealer.  All you hear about, if you work at the complaint desk, are the problems, and you probably think that the Mercedes is the worst car in the world.  Often, this is what we get from the media.  It's our complaint desk.  "If it bleeds, it leads."

That being said, if you loose 100,000 of your citizens to a neighboring country, something is wrong.  But it's not here.  This is the place where people are coming to.  If the US is such a terrible place, why do they come?

Monday, January 1, 2018

Swagger's 18 Predictions for 2018


18.  Big Sky Conference adds Dixie State College of Utah as 12th school.  (14th for Football)  DSU will transition from DII to FCS in 2019-2020 and officially join in 2021-22.


17.  Las Vegas is awarded Super Bowl LVII



16.  PAC-12 will change conference football schedule to play 8 conference games instead of 9 leaving each school to add an extra non-conference game for 2019 going forward.  Oregon adds BYU for a 2020-2021 home and home.  Utah and Utah State will play annually again.



15.  No teams from Utah make the men's NCAA basketball championship field in 2018.  BYU and Utah play in NIT.  Weber State plays in Vegas 16.



14.  Alabama wins 2017 college national championship.



13.  Royals make NWSL playoffs in first season, but lose to Portland Thorns.



12.  BYU beats Nevada in New Mexico Bowl, finishes 10-3, earns first top 25 ranking since 2011.  (Losses to Wisconsin, Washington and Northern Illinois.)



11.  Utah State beats Toledo in the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl, finishes 8-5.  (Losses to Michigan State, BYU, Boise State, Colorado State and Wyoming)



10.  Utah beats Fresno State in the Las Vegas Bowl, finishes 8-5.  (Losses to Washington, Washington State, Stanford, UCLA and BYU)



9.  Rio Tinto Stadium is awarded the 2021 Women's College Cup



8.  Weber State loses to North Dakota State in the 2018 NCAA FCS Championship game finishes 13-2.  (Losses to Utah and North Dakota State)



7.  Washington, Ohio State, Alabama and Miami (Florida) are the 2018 football semi-finalists.  NCAA announces expansion playoffs to 16 teams beginning in 2022.



6.  Celtics win NBA championship.  Gordon Hayward does not return during the season.



5.  Jazz miss NBA playoffs. Draft Miles Bridges, SF Michigan State.



4.  Michigan State wins NCAA men's basketball championship.



3.  Tony Finau wins US Open.



2.  RSL makes MLS playoffs, but loses to Seattle in conference finals.  RSL finishes season unbeaten at home.



1.  BYU finally beats Utah in football.