This article is a very simple illustration between the regular flu and corona-virus. Let's shrink the population down to what will fit in a typical NBA arena or MLS stadium, which is usually around 20,000. Just so you know that I am not making these numbers up, please visit this site.
Source on Seasonal Flu
Also, keep in mind that there are many factors of corona that we do not know yet. We do not know what lifestyle factors are more likely to lead to death. We also are not exactly sure how many people the average person with corona will infect. These number assume a value of 3.
Also, there has been a recent study on coronavirus antibodies that show that it may have spread father than we thought, which also means that the complication rate and death rate are much lower. This is based upon information we have as of today, April 20, 2020.
The seasonal flu numbers vary from year to year.
These number indicate why social distancing is important. It also may take longer for these numbers to be realized...perhaps as long as 15-20 days. A typical virus will not spread like this in real life, because sporting events are usually 2 to 3 hours. (Please read this up front and do not flame in the comments.)
Regular Seasonal Flu
(Seasonal flu changes from year to year.)
20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the flu and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...
10,000 others go home sick, and have flu symptoms (1 sick person infects one other person. This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1))
Usually everyone who has the flu will have to take time off of their regular schedule...which is one reason why the flu does not spread as easily as other viruses.
200 may need hospitalization
10 people will die
Coronavirus
20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the virus and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...
15,000 go home with the virus (1 sick person infects 3 other other persons. This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1)) For Corona, this may not be as high, or could be higher. This is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms.
12,000 will have no symptoms or will have only mild symptoms. One problem with Corona, there is no way to tell the difference, at this time, between someone who has the virus and showing no symptoms and someone who does not have the virus.
3,000 will have symptoms serious enough to take time off work
2,070 may need hospitalization
450 will die (This may not be as high or could be higher than we currently think it is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms)
A far better comparison for COVID-19 may be the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20, which had similar rates of transmission and death.
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Thursday, April 9, 2020
How to grade your organization's COVID-19 response
Very simple letter grade for your organization's response to COVID-19. How is your company organization doing?
F--Do nothing or close your doors
This means that you are going to carry on as if nothing is wrong. Outside of a few churches that believe that God will protect them, I know of no organization that has done this.
I do know of many organizations that have simply closed their doors and are making plans to go bankrupt once they can go to court. Since they are making no plans for survival, they would also get an F grade.
D--Business as usual as much as possible without many additional steps other than to move everything online
There are a few organizations that have done this. Some have moved everything online, but with little concern for the safety of their people. This includes mental health checks. Being stuck inside most of the day takes a toll on people, especially during the spring.
Some organizations have done nothing other than to declare themselves essential, but are carrying on as normal.
If either of these describes your organization, then give yourself a D grade.
C--Taking steps to ensure employees or members of your organization are safe and changing business activities to ensure safety
Many business have reduced their hours, changed the way they operated to protect their employees. For paid employees, however, to reach this level, you will have needed to evaluate your benefits package, ensure that employees tests are covered in the benefits package, ensure that employees know and understand that they do not come to work if they are feeling ill. In other words, not only protect your employees from getting sick, but remove their worries if they do.
B--C and taking steps to continue to connect with and care for and continue serve the customer in spite of needed restrictions
Your most loyal customers are going to be the ones that will initially lift you after the crisis is over. They will be the first to return when conditions return to normal. Do everything you can to remain loyal to them. Keep in contact with them. Offer them coupons and discount packages that are valid once business returns to normal. Thank them for keeping you in business over the years and for their help for keeping your in business after the crisis. If you do this, you have earned a B grade.
A--B and making plans for growth AFTER the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted and normal activities resume
Benjamin Franklin reportedly said, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail." What are your plans after the crisis is over? How is the world going to be different? Can you find a new niche in the post-crisis world. Smart organizations are making these plans. If you are, give yourself an A.
F--Do nothing or close your doors
This means that you are going to carry on as if nothing is wrong. Outside of a few churches that believe that God will protect them, I know of no organization that has done this.
I do know of many organizations that have simply closed their doors and are making plans to go bankrupt once they can go to court. Since they are making no plans for survival, they would also get an F grade.
D--Business as usual as much as possible without many additional steps other than to move everything online
There are a few organizations that have done this. Some have moved everything online, but with little concern for the safety of their people. This includes mental health checks. Being stuck inside most of the day takes a toll on people, especially during the spring.
Some organizations have done nothing other than to declare themselves essential, but are carrying on as normal.
If either of these describes your organization, then give yourself a D grade.
C--Taking steps to ensure employees or members of your organization are safe and changing business activities to ensure safety
Many business have reduced their hours, changed the way they operated to protect their employees. For paid employees, however, to reach this level, you will have needed to evaluate your benefits package, ensure that employees tests are covered in the benefits package, ensure that employees know and understand that they do not come to work if they are feeling ill. In other words, not only protect your employees from getting sick, but remove their worries if they do.
B--C and taking steps to continue to connect with and care for and continue serve the customer in spite of needed restrictions
Your most loyal customers are going to be the ones that will initially lift you after the crisis is over. They will be the first to return when conditions return to normal. Do everything you can to remain loyal to them. Keep in contact with them. Offer them coupons and discount packages that are valid once business returns to normal. Thank them for keeping you in business over the years and for their help for keeping your in business after the crisis. If you do this, you have earned a B grade.
A--B and making plans for growth AFTER the COVID-19 restrictions are lifted and normal activities resume
Benjamin Franklin reportedly said, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail." What are your plans after the crisis is over? How is the world going to be different? Can you find a new niche in the post-crisis world. Smart organizations are making these plans. If you are, give yourself an A.
Monday, April 6, 2020
Six Ways the Coronavirus Pandemic Could End
1. Quick herd immunity. The quickest way this could end is that many more people have been exposed to the disease than previously thought. In other words, more people than previously thought had the disease, had no symptoms or minor symptoms and have recovered. People who fit into this category would have needed to have been exposed before social distancing guidelines were in place. This means that we will quickly develop herd immunity to the disease and be able to return to our normal lives very soon, perhaps by the middle of May.
This is possible because we did not have a lot of testing available to us, and in some areas we still not not of testing in place.
If this happens, you would see a very, very sharp decrease after the disease peaks in mid-April. In other words, the disease peaks in a couple of weeks, and then the number of new cases is next to nothing very quickly. We will not know until testing for antibodies in the blood stream becomes widely available.
2. An effective, early-intervention treatment. Right now, this looks like the most realistic way the pandemic will end soon.
Malaria drugs show promise as being this kind of treatment. If administered early enough, people can convalesce at home. As the treatment becomes more available, and the disease becomes less deadly, lives can return to normal. It is not yet a certainty that these drugs will work, but it looks promising.
3. The virus dies out, or becomes greatly reduced, as weather in the northern hemisphere moves into Spring and Summer. If this happens, we will need to worry about a bounce back this coming fall and winter. However, we will be better prepared for the bounce back. The interruption in life will become less invasive in the future. This will buy us time to find more effective treatments or develop an effective vaccine.
4. A vaccine is developed. These take time to be developed, tested and mass-produced. Perhaps, we will have a vaccine ready by the fall of 2021.
5. Slow herd immunity. Rather than quickly, we develop herd immunity slowly. The disease eventually, over time, becomes much more like the common cold for most people. But this will still be deadly for some populations. Like the seasonal flu is deadly for some populations. This might take 2-3 years to reach this point.
6. We never develop a vaccine, early treatment nor herd immunity. The disease constantly mutates. We learn to adapt and evolve to a new normal.
This means fewer people living in cities. More living in small towns. More of us working from home. Fewer of us commuting long distances to work. Doctors doing more to help those with high risk of death factors; such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. Greater efforts to stop people from smoking and vaping. Perhaps even outlawing tobacco and tobacco products. Marijuana becoming illegal again. Going back to smaller grocery stores instead of large supermarkets and big-box stores. Smaller churches and no mega-churches. Perhaps we will have closer knit communities, much like we used to.
This is possible because we did not have a lot of testing available to us, and in some areas we still not not of testing in place.
If this happens, you would see a very, very sharp decrease after the disease peaks in mid-April. In other words, the disease peaks in a couple of weeks, and then the number of new cases is next to nothing very quickly. We will not know until testing for antibodies in the blood stream becomes widely available.
2. An effective, early-intervention treatment. Right now, this looks like the most realistic way the pandemic will end soon.
Malaria drugs show promise as being this kind of treatment. If administered early enough, people can convalesce at home. As the treatment becomes more available, and the disease becomes less deadly, lives can return to normal. It is not yet a certainty that these drugs will work, but it looks promising.
3. The virus dies out, or becomes greatly reduced, as weather in the northern hemisphere moves into Spring and Summer. If this happens, we will need to worry about a bounce back this coming fall and winter. However, we will be better prepared for the bounce back. The interruption in life will become less invasive in the future. This will buy us time to find more effective treatments or develop an effective vaccine.
4. A vaccine is developed. These take time to be developed, tested and mass-produced. Perhaps, we will have a vaccine ready by the fall of 2021.
5. Slow herd immunity. Rather than quickly, we develop herd immunity slowly. The disease eventually, over time, becomes much more like the common cold for most people. But this will still be deadly for some populations. Like the seasonal flu is deadly for some populations. This might take 2-3 years to reach this point.
6. We never develop a vaccine, early treatment nor herd immunity. The disease constantly mutates. We learn to adapt and evolve to a new normal.
This means fewer people living in cities. More living in small towns. More of us working from home. Fewer of us commuting long distances to work. Doctors doing more to help those with high risk of death factors; such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes. Greater efforts to stop people from smoking and vaping. Perhaps even outlawing tobacco and tobacco products. Marijuana becoming illegal again. Going back to smaller grocery stores instead of large supermarkets and big-box stores. Smaller churches and no mega-churches. Perhaps we will have closer knit communities, much like we used to.
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