Six Ways the Coronavirus Pandemic Could End

1.  Quick herd immunity.  The quickest way this could end is that many more people have been exposed to the disease than previously thought.  In other words, more people than previously thought had the disease, had no symptoms or minor symptoms and have recovered.  People who fit into this category would have needed to have been exposed before social distancing guidelines were in place.  This means that we will quickly develop herd immunity to the disease and be able to return to our normal lives very soon, perhaps by the middle of May.

This is possible because we did not have a lot of testing available to us, and in some areas we still not not of testing in place.

If this happens, you would see a very, very sharp decrease after the disease peaks in mid-April.  In other words, the disease peaks in a couple of weeks, and then the number of new cases is next to nothing very quickly.  We will not know until testing for antibodies in the blood stream becomes widely available.

2.  An effective, early-intervention treatment.  Right now, this looks like the most realistic way the pandemic will end soon.

Malaria drugs show promise as being this kind of treatment.  If administered early enough, people can convalesce at home.  As the treatment becomes more available, and the disease becomes less deadly, lives can return to normal.  It is not yet a certainty that these drugs will work, but it looks promising.

3.  The virus dies out, or becomes greatly reduced, as weather in the northern hemisphere moves into Spring and Summer.  If this happens, we will need to worry about a bounce back this coming fall and winter.  However, we will be better prepared for the bounce back.  The interruption in life will become less invasive in the future.  This will buy us time to find more effective treatments or develop an effective vaccine.

4.  A vaccine is developed.  These take time to be developed, tested and mass-produced.  Perhaps, we will have a vaccine ready by the fall of 2021.

5.  Slow herd immunity.  Rather than quickly, we develop herd immunity slowly.  The disease eventually, over time, becomes much more like the common cold for most people.  But this will still be deadly for some populations.  Like the seasonal flu is deadly for some populations.  This might take 2-3 years to reach this point.

6.  We never develop a vaccine, early treatment nor herd immunity.  The disease constantly mutates.  We learn to adapt and evolve to a new normal.

This means fewer people living in cities.  More living in small towns.  More of us working from home.  Fewer of us commuting long distances to work.  Doctors doing more to help those with high risk of death factors; such as heart disease, obesity and diabetes.  Greater efforts to stop people from smoking and vaping.  Perhaps even outlawing tobacco and tobacco products.  Marijuana becoming illegal again.  Going back to smaller grocery stores instead of large supermarkets and big-box stores.  Smaller churches and no mega-churches.  Perhaps we will have closer knit communities, much like we used to.