This article is a very simple illustration between the regular flu and corona-virus. Let's shrink the population down to what will fit in a typical NBA arena or MLS stadium, which is usually around 20,000. Just so you know that I am not making these numbers up, please visit this site.
Source on Seasonal Flu
Also, keep in mind that there are many factors of corona that we do not know yet. We do not know what lifestyle factors are more likely to lead to death. We also are not exactly sure how many people the average person with corona will infect. These number assume a value of 3.
Also, there has been a recent study on coronavirus antibodies that show that it may have spread father than we thought, which also means that the complication rate and death rate are much lower. This is based upon information we have as of today, April 20, 2020.
The seasonal flu numbers vary from year to year.
These number indicate why social distancing is important. It also may take longer for these numbers to be realized...perhaps as long as 15-20 days. A typical virus will not spread like this in real life, because sporting events are usually 2 to 3 hours. (Please read this up front and do not flame in the comments.)
Regular Seasonal Flu
(Seasonal flu changes from year to year.)
20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the flu and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...
10,000 others go home sick, and have flu symptoms (1 sick person infects one other person. This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1))
Usually everyone who has the flu will have to take time off of their regular schedule...which is one reason why the flu does not spread as easily as other viruses.
200 may need hospitalization
10 people will die
Coronavirus
20,000 people at a sports stadium
If 1 person has the virus and everyone remains at the stadium long enough...
15,000 go home with the virus (1 sick person infects 3 other other persons. This is how many people need to be exposed before the virus dies out due to herd immunity...or 1-1/(r+1)) For Corona, this may not be as high, or could be higher. This is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms.
12,000 will have no symptoms or will have only mild symptoms. One problem with Corona, there is no way to tell the difference, at this time, between someone who has the virus and showing no symptoms and someone who does not have the virus.
3,000 will have symptoms serious enough to take time off work
2,070 may need hospitalization
450 will die (This may not be as high or could be higher than we currently think it is due to the number of infected people who do not present symptoms)
A far better comparison for COVID-19 may be the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20, which had similar rates of transmission and death.
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