Due to Corona virus, the NHL, NBA and Major League Soccer are taking a break. Major League Baseball is starting late. There are some franchises that can't afford to lose any time off. Their teams will not get revenue during the shutdown but some bills will still have to be paid. Here is a list of teams that may not come back.
NFL
If Corona virus affect the NFL in 2020, football will be the least of our worries. Society will be in collapse if the NFL is unable to kick off on time. The worst-case scenario for the NFL is if the season starts a couple of weeks late.
NBA
There is only one franchise in basketball that Forbes reports operates at a loss. That is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Fortunately, the Thunder have a low debt to value ratio and could borrow the money to offset the loss of the rest of the 2020 season. They will return next year.
The team most at risk is the Sacramento Kings. Their debt to value ratio is currently at 30%. Their value is at 1.7 billion, which means that the team has 510,000,000 in debt to pay. This is mostly due to their share of the cost of the new arena. Without any money coming in, the team may not be able to pay what they owe. Of course, this is not knowing anything about how the debt is structured.
The worst-case scenario for the NBA is that the Kings, the Thunder and a couple of other teams that are operating at a loss have a "fire sale" to offload their highest paid players. I don't expect the NBA will suffer much.
Hockey
The team at the greatest risk is the Arizona Coyotes. According to Forbes, the hockey team based in the Phoenix suburbs has a 100% debt to value ratio and operates with a 15 million dollar loss. The NHL currently owns and operates the team. There is no scenario where this works out, unless the league wants to keep losing money in Arizona. The Coyotes have been in trouble for a long time. Coronavirus may push them over the edge.
The Coyotes are not the only team in the National Hockey League that are in trouble and may fold if the league does not get back on the ice. The Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets and Winnepeg Jets are also in financial trouble.
The most likely scenario for the NHL that I see is if the Coyotes are finally sold for a very low price and the new owners move them to Kansas City or Houston or another city where they can be profitable and the rest of the league takes on their debt. In the worst-case scenario, the Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets also move or the NHL experiences a contraction of 2 franchises.
Major League Soccer
Sure, it's a good idea to have 2 teams in New York. All of the other leagues in North America have 2 teams in the New York area while Hockey has 3. NYCFC is the team in Major League Soccer losing the most money. This does not mean that they are in the worst shape and are least prepared to weather this storm. Keep in mind that the team that plays games in Yankee Stadium is backed by Manchester City, one of the most valuable teams in the English Premier League and has the wealthiest owner in all of sport.
The Chicago Fire are also losing money hand over fist, which is why they abandoned their suburban soccer-specific stadium for a return to Soldier Field. Soccer is structured differently. The Chicago Fire were, at one time, one of the more successful teams in Major League Soccer. Major League Soccer will strive to keep a team in the hub of the American Heartland if they possibly can, even if it is only a symbolic gesture.
The teams in the most trouble with a protracted shutdown would be the the teams north of the border. Their revenue is in Canadian money, but their expenses are in US Dollars. Even today, this is not an even exchange. The Canadian dollar is worth about 70-75% of the US dollar. This is the reason why most of the NHL is south of the border, while most of the players come from the north. Beyond this, are there any other US teams in trouble?
Possibly the Colorado Rapids are this team. They are the least valuable in Major League Soccer. In 2019 they were 2nd to last in attendance in MLS. There are teams in Major League Soccer located farther from the downtown hub than DSG is to downtown Denver that do better in attendance. Their Rocky Mountain rival, Real Salt Lake, for example, is nearly twice as far from downtown as they are and does much better in attendance. Denver is the smallest US metro with all 5 major sports, nearly 700,000 people behind the next smallest, Minneapolis-St. Paul. This year, they have a promising team. Hopefully, this will result in an uptick in attendance.
The worst-case scenario for Major League Soccer is that the three teams based in Canada leave Major League Soccer and return to an all-Canadian league and a couple of teams, namely Chicago and Colorado move. The most likely scenario is that none of this happens and the league continues its plans to expand.
Major League Baseball
There is only one baseball team that is in real financial trouble at this time, no matter what you may see elsewhere. The only team with a load of debt and annual financial losses is the Miami Marlins. But with most baseball teams, April is when crowds are the smallest...other than opening day. Summer is where the real money is made. If baseball can get going in May, no one is really in trouble. The Tampa Bay Rays also seem like they struggle. They play in likely the worst stadium and smallest stadium in Baseball. From a financial standpoint, they break even and do not have a load of debt. Obviously, this can't continue forever, and the virus may make things worse.
The most likely scenario is that nothing major happens in Major League Baseball as a result of the pandemic. Baseball continues on. It represents American stability through hard times. Baseball survived two world wars and the Great Depression and the cancellation of one World Series. It will survive this. The worst case scenario is that future baseball in Florida beyond Spring Training becomes a thing of the past.
