Speculation--Will the PAC-12 Expand?

May 26, 2021.

No, I do not believe that expansion is in the cards for the PAC-12 in the immediate future.  I don't believe the conference has problems that expansion is the answer to.  The main reason is that you can easily eliminate all the potential contenders.

1. The PAC-12 will not be able to add any Big 12 teams because the PAC-12 offers nothing to them that they do not already have.

2. The PAC-12 will not add BYU because of irreconcilable differences.  I can make a market case to add BYU, but the Provo school's sponsor and their stance on LGBTQ rights and on not playing games on Sunday are non-negotiable.  

Here is my argument for BYU.  10 of the 12 PAC-12 schools are located in the same metro area of temples of the church.  (Oregon and Washington State are the two that lack a temple.)  3 have multiple temples: UCLA/USC, Arizona State and Utah are located where there are multiple temples.  Where you have temples, you have active members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  Where you have active church members, you have BYU alumni.

This is something that the Big 12 does not have.  Only Oklahoma, Kansas, TCU and Texas Tech are near temples.

3. The PAC-12 will not add Boise State because of market size.

4. The PAC-12 will not add UNLV because they already have Las Vegas in their pocket.

5. The PAC-12 will not add Hawaii because they no longer have the facilities that a Power-5 conference needs.

6.  The PAC-12 will not add San Jose State because they already own the Bay Area.

7.  The PAC-12 will not add Nevada because of market size.

8.  There is only one school that makes the cut.  San Diego State.  The Aztecs are in a large city and market.  But they are the only school it makes sense for the conference to add.  They will not become the PAC-13.  It can also be argued that any PAC-12 school will beat San Diego State in recruiting 9 times out of 10.  You have Utah in the PAC-12, but kids from the state of Utah are still going to other schools in the PAC-12 when recruited by them.

9.  I can make a case for Air Force.  There are 7 large Air Force bases in PAC-12 territory.  (McChord, Travis, Edwards, Luke, Hill, Peterson and The Academy itself)  But there are no other service academies in the Power-5.  The argument is similar to BYU's at this point.  Service academies have a difficult time landing NFL-potential talent.

 Life, however, can does and will change.

Speculation: If the Oakland Athletics Move, Where Will They Go?

Before you read this list, there are some things to consider.  First, there is the definition of city population, metro population, CSA population and sports market.

The Metro population is the population of the city's metropolitan area.  This is the city, plus the size of its suburbs.  The CSA population is the size of the Combined Statistical Area.  That is the metro, plus other nearby metros.  Then there is the sports market, or the area where a team is able to sell primary TV rights and where a team is likely to gain support.

For my readers in Utah.  The Salt Lake City Metro area is Salt Lake County and Tooele County only.  The Salt Lake City CSA is Salt Lake Metro area, the Ogden/Layton Metro area, the Provo/Orem Metro area, the Park City/Heber City area, the Morgan area, the Nephi area and the Brigham City area.  The Sports market is the area where the local team is able to sell TV rights.  The Colorado Rockies can include the entire state of Utah in their sports market, which the Denver Nuggets and Colorado Rapids can't because of the Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake.  However, for the Denver Broncos and Colorado Avalanche the state of Utah is a shared sports market because of the Las Vegas Raiders and the Vegas Golden Knights.  Utah can't be included as the sports market for either NFL or NHL franchise.

The factors that I used to rank this list: City size, current sports teams, sports market size, stadium possibilities, recent rate of growth and city's sports history.  One additional factor is that I believe that if the A's can't stay in Oakland, they will try to stay in California.

10. Havana, Cuba

When the Obama administration began to soften the US stance against Cuba, many began dreaming of Major League Baseball on the Island.  Baseball is the top sport in Cuba and produces many players.  However, Cuba is a poor country and probably not yet able to build a quality stadium for the team to play.

City: 2.3 Million
Sports Market: The nation of Cuba

Currently the sports market belongs to no one.

Current baseball team is the Cuban National Team

Reasons not higher on the list: Not in the West.  Stadium issues.

9. Boise, Idaho

Boise is growing rapidly.  Sooner or later the Treasure Valley will welcome a major league sports franchise.  It could be the Athletics.  More likely, it will be the NHL, NBA or Major League Soccer.  It is also likely another 10 years away.

City: 240,000
Metro: 750,000
Sports Market: Southwestern Idaho and Eastern Oregon

Stadium Possibilities: Build New

Sports market for Baseball belongs to the Seattle Mariners

Current Baseball Team: Pioneer League (Independent) Boise Hawks

Reasons not higher on the list: Market size.  Stadium issues. Not in California.

8. Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Baseball in Mexico?  It could happen someday.  Mexico is still nuts for football.  And by football, I mean what Americans call soccer.  However, the Mexican league is still considered a AAA-level sport.  Sooner or later, MLB will expand south of the border.  Probably later, however.

City: 1.1 Million
Metro: 4.6 Million
Sports Market: Northeastern Mexico

Stadium Possibilities: Expand Estadia de Beisbol de Monterrey and/or build new

Sports market for baseball belongs to no one.

Current Baseball Team: Sultanes de Monterrey of the Mexican League

Reasons not higher on the list: Player safety.

7. Las Vegas, Nevada

Las Vegas has proven to be a welcome home for both the NHL and the NFL.  But the pandemic has hit the city hard.  They would love to take in another Oakland refugee, but they don't exactly have the permanent population to support another team.  They do not have a larger sports market.

City Population: 583,000
Metro: 2.2 Million
CSA: 2.5 Million
Sports Market: Southern Nevada plus the lower Colorado River Basin

Stadium Possibilities: Build new.  The current Las Vegas Ballpark is probably too small to be expanded for temporary use.

Sports market for baseball is shared by the teams in Southern California.  Current AAA franchise is an affiliate of the Oakland Athletics.

Current Baseball Team: AAA West Las Vegas Aviators

Reasons not higher on the list: Market size. Not in California.  NFL and NHL already have teams here.

6. Portland, Oregon 

Portland has been begging for a baseball team for decades.  The main negative is the team has no place to play until an MLB stadium is built.  The plan to replace the Memorial Coliseum (Adjacent to the Trailblazer's Moda Center) with a baseball stadium is bound to have opposition as it has to go through Congress.  (It's a war memorial)  It would also be tricky to find a place in the suburbs.  The old Multinomah ballpark is now a fully-dedicated soccer stadium.  If it were not for potential stadium problems, Portland would be higher on this list.

City Population: 583,000
Metro: 2.5 Million
CSA: 3.2 Million
Sports Market: State of Oregon plus Southwest Washington

Stadium possibilities: Replace old Memorial Coliseum (which is a WWII memorial) with a baseball stadium.  Would have to remain in Oakland until stadium is built.  Team could also build a suburban stadium.  Hillsboro stadium is probably to small to be expanded for short-term use.

Sports market for baseball currently belongs to the Seattle Mariners.  Current baseball team is an Arizona Diamondbacks affiliate

Current Baseball Team: High A West Hillsboro Hawks

Reasons not higher on the list: Not in California. Stadium issues.

5. Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Canada has had only one team since the Expos left for Washington, DC.  Baseball seems like a natural fit for Canada's second largest city.  The main negative, like Portland, is getting a stadium and sharing BC Place with the Lions and the Whitecaps until it is built.

City Population: 631,000
Metro Population: 2.5 Million
Sport Market: Provence of British Columbia and Alberta

Stadium Possibilities: Convert BC Place for baseball (Shared with BC Lions and Vancouver Whitecaps) until a new ballpark is built.

Current sports market for baseball belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays

Current team: None

Reasons not higher on the list: Exchange rate, stadium issues.

4. San Antonio, Texas

The Alamo City and Metro Area is one of the largest in the United States with only one Major Sports franchise.  Sure, people are counting on the NFL coming to this town one day, but Texas is a big baseball state as well.  Certainly there is room for a 3rd Lone Star MLB team.  The main drawback is playing in the Alamodome until a new stadium is built.  There is no AAA stadium in San Antonio to expand, they would have to start by playing indoors in an aging stadium built for football.

City Population: 1.3 million
Metro: 2.5 million
Sports Market: Southern Texas

Stadium Possibilities: Convert Alamodome for baseball until a new stadium is built.

Sports market for baseball is shared by the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers.

Current Baseball Team: None

Reasons not higher on the list.  Not in California.  Stadium issues.

3. Salt Lake City, Utah

Utah is the fastest growing state in United States as of the 2020 Census.  There are no signs of it slowing down.  There would probably not be opposition to any stadium plan as long as it stays in the southern part of the city.  The main downside is that most of the people live in the suburbs and would need to travel to the stadium no matter where it is built.  (As a DJ friend of mine says, no one from Salt Lake is actually from Salt Lake.)  The success of the Utah Jazz and Real Salt Lake are both a blessing and a curse to fans who want Major League Baseball in Utah.  They prove that sports teams can be successful and draw fans.  They also leave major doubts if there is room for another sports franchise in the city.

City Population: 185,000
Metro: 1.2 Million
CSA: 2.6 Million
Sports Market: State of Utah, plus Western Wyoming and Eastern Idaho

Stadium Possibilities: Expand Smith's Ballpark and/or build a new stadium.

Sports market for baseball currently belongs to the Colorado Rockies.  Current AAA team is a long-time affiliate of the Los Angeles Angels.

Current Baseball Team: AAA West Salt Lake Bees

Reasons not higher on the list: Not in California.  NBA and Major League Soccer already in metro.

2. Austin, Texas

Austin is a city which is growing rapidly.  And by that, I mean booming.  It is the fastest growing major metro in the United States.  It is the largest metro area in the United States without an NFL, NBA, MLB or NHL team.  Major League Soccer has just found a home here, but soccer is probably Austin's third love after Football and Baseball.  The Longhorns not only have a storied football program, but a storied baseball program as well.  The reason they are not top of this list is the belief that the A's will try to remain in the Golden State.  Hall of famers like Nolan Ryan grew up in this part of Texas. It seems like a natural fit.  The Austin Metro is the largest on my list.  If the A's don't move to Austin, they will get an expansion team.

City Population: 1 Million
Metro Population: 4.2 Million
Sport Market: Central Texas

Stadium Possibilities: Expand Dell Diamond and/or build a new stadium 

Current sports market for baseball is shared by the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers.  Current AAA team is a Houston Astros affiliate.

Current Baseball Team: AAA West Round Rock Express.

Reasons not higher on list: Not in California.  Prime expansion target.

1. Sacramento, California

I have to think that if the waterfront stadium deal in not approved, the priority of the Oakland Athletics and Major League Baseball will be to remain in California.  Moving inland seems to be the safest possibility.  Many of the A's most loyal fans will still be able to see their beloved team.  They may be able to expand the TV market to include Fresno and all of the Central Valley and expand into Reno while still retaining a presence on Bay Area TV.

City Population: 500,000 
Metro Population: 2.5 Million
Sports Market: Sacramento, Central Valley and Reno

Stadium Possibilities: Expand Sutter Health Park and/or build a new stadium.

Current sports market for baseball is shared by the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants.  Current AAA team is a San Francisco Giants affiliate.

Current Baseball Team: AAA West Sacramento River Cats