Monday, February 24, 2014

Will Salt Lake host the Olympics again?

There are many in Utah who think that Salt Lake could host another Winter Olympics games.  That opportunity will be on our doorstep before we even realize it.  Next year, the IOC will award the city that will host the Winter Games in 2022.  The opportunity to host the 2026 Winter Games is at our door, if the USOC wants it.

The challenge for the USOC is that they do not wish to spend money on more than one bid at once.  As such bidding is futile.  The International Olympic community likes to spread the games all over the world, as it is truly a world event.  The last time the Summer Games was held in the same continent for two consecutive Summer Games was 1952 when the Helsinki games followed the London Games of 1948.  As for the Winter Games, the last two consecutive games were held on the same continent was in 1994 when the Winter Games switched from leap years to the other even-number years when the Lillihammer games followed the games in Albertville.  The USOC needs to decide if they want to host the summer or the winter games next.

The main reason Salt Lake had to wait until 2002 to host the winter games instead of getting the 1998 games, Atlanta got the 1996 summer games.  This forced Salt Lake to wait another 4 years, and the 1998 Winter Games went to Nagano, Japan. 

The 2022 games are most certainly going to be in Europe because the 2018 games will be in Asia, in Pyongchang, South Korea.  The USOC passed up the opportunity to bid for these games, and no other cities in the Americas are interested.  The IOC will probably not pick another Asian City for 2022.  Therefore Beijing and Almaty, Kazakhstan are not in the running.  That leaves the race for the 2022 games between 4 European Cities: Lviv, Ukraine; Munich, German; Krakow, Poland and Oslo, Norway.  How far Olso and Munich get in the voting is something that Salt Lake organizers will watch closely.  Both cities have had the games before.  Gamesh-Partenkirken is just a stone throw away from Munich, which also hosted the 1972 Summer games.  Oslo is not very far from Lillihammer, host of the 1994 Winter Games.  If the IOC picks one of these cities, or at least if one gets to the final vote, it looks good for Salt Lake.  It shows that the IOC likes the possibility of hosting a winter games near a city that has had them before, and that they approve of using many of the same venues.

The 2026 Winter Games appear almost certainly to be in an American city of the USOC wants them there.  Right now, the only cities that have expressed interest in placing bids for the 2026 Winter games are Quebec City, Canada and 6 US Cities.  Those Cities are Anchorage, Alaska; Bozeman, Montana; Boston; Reno, Nevada; Denver and Salt Lake.

Quebec City has a problem, and that is that a city on the southern edge of the Canadian Shield has no ski mountain nearby, and the IOC has told the QC organizers that much.  Find a nearby mountain or don't bother.  The 2026 games seem to be the next US hosted games by default.  Therefore, what is to stop Salt Lake from hosting again?

First of all, do the other cities want want the games as well.  I would not consider Anchorage nor Bozeman credible cities to host the games.  Sure, Pyongchang is a small city, but Korea is not a large country.  A planned high speed train between Seoul and Pyongchang will solve the main problem that the small Korean town has, and that is hotel space.  Many wishing to attend the games can stay in Seoul and take a short, fast train ride to the games.  This is something that Anchorage and Bozeman can't as easily overcome.  Neither city has enough hotel space to accommodate the tens of thousands of people that will converge on the city for the games.  Having lived in both cities, I know what happens when small sporting events come to town.  The Great Alaskan shootout snarls traffic in the Anchorage for one weekend.  And this is just seven visiting basketball teams.  What will the Olympics do when they come.  And a state wrestling tournament takes all of the hotel space in Bozeman.  The Marriots and Hiltons of the world don't build one-use hotels in any town, even if they are on the doorstep of a National Park.  These cities just don't have either the infrastructure nor the facilities to host the Olympics.

As for Denver, they will never be able to live down the fact that they were awarded the 1976 Winter Games, but then turned them away.  The only city in history ever to do so.  Colorado has some of the best snow in the world, but the town has an Olympic history that they will never be able to live down.  They would be a good host city, but blew their chance.  It will never come again.

The Reno/Tahoe people are optimistic that they can host the games.  For Reno, their problem is not the lack of snow this season, and the quality of snow during normal water years.  Some believe that the lack of snow is a portent of things to come, due to global warming.  But most of the western US is gripped in drought this year, and it is likely not typical of what we will see in 2026.  Many were unhappy with the quality of snow conditions in Sochi during this years games, and Reno itself has similar temperatures throughout the winter, even in good snow years.  The Sierra snow is much heavier than snow in the Rockies because the water content is higher.  Reno may have trouble convincing the USOC that they could host the Winter games because of the quality of snow that typically falls in their area.

That leaves Boston, which is certainly more culturally diverse than Salt Lake; has more hotel rooms and has many advantages over Salt Lake.  Massachusetts itself is not known as ski Mecca, but there are quality ski areas in the mountains of western Massachusetts, less than two hours by car from Boston.  That is the big advantage that Salt Lake has over Reno, Denver, and Boston.  Salt Lakers ski in the suburbs, 20 minutes away from the airport, not two hours away like many other cities in the US.

There are really only three other US cities not going for the Winter Games in 2026 that could be good hosts for the Winter Games.  Seattle; Portland, Oregon and Sacramento, California.  Portland has many of the same advantages that Salt Lake has, good hotel space and ski areas that are practically in the suburbs.

For Salt Lake, the USOC may pass simply because they want to see another city play host to the games.  Because the IOC likes to spread the games around, the USOC may do the same.  The US doesn't do as well in the Winter Games because winter sports aren't as popular in the US as summer sports are.  Spreading the Winter Games around may be part of the solution to this problem.  Getting other, perhaps larger cities interested in the Winter Games will help the US win more metals in the Winter Games.  This may be the sole reason a larger city like Boston will gain support from the USOC.

There is only other factor that could derail the US from hosting the Winter Games of 2026, and that is the desire to host the summer games again.  The US probably won't get the 2024 summer games, a city in Europe or Africa, a continent that has never hosted the Olympics, is likely due for the honor in 2024.  The USOC may decide to throw their support behind bidding for the 2028 Summer Olympics instead.  The competition for those games; Guadalajara, Mexico.  The second largest city in Mexico has successfully hosted many international events in recent years, and is gaining the confidence of the World that they can successfully host the Olympic Games.

There are several US Cities interested, including Dallas and San Francisco.  If the US passes on the Winter Games of 2026, the next chance will depend on if the US gets the 2028 Summer Games.  The next chance for a Winter Games may not come until 2034 or later.  If the US passes on 2026, those games will likely be held in Asia or 'down under' with the 2030 games going to Europe. If the US doesn't get to host the summer games in 2028, the next real chance for the Summer Games will likely come in 2040.

The real fact to consider is that the summer games are much more difficult to get than winter games.  We may see the Winter Olympics in the US again much sooner than we see the Summer Olympics.  There are many cities around that world that could host a successful summer games, but not many that can successful host the winter games.  There is a good possibility that the we will see the Winter Olympics in Utah again in our lifetime. 

Summer Games

1896--Athens (1st modern Olympic Games)
1900--Paris
1904--St. Louis (1st Olympic Games held outside of Europe)
1908--London
1912--Stockholm
1916--Canceled, but would have been held in Berlin
1920--Antwerp
1924--Paris
1928--Amsterdam
1932--Los Angeles (Americas) 
1936--Berlin (Europe/Africa)
1940--Canceled, but would have been held in Tokyo
1944--Canceled, but would have been held in London
1948--London (Europe/Africa)
1952--Helsinki (Europe/Africa--Last time consecutive summer games were held on the same continent)
1956--Melbourne (Asia/Australia--First Summer Olympics in Southern Hemisphere)
1960--Rome (Europe/Africa)
1964--Tokyo (Asia--First Olympics in Asia)
1968--Mexico City (Americas)
1972--Munich (Europe/Africa)
1976--Montreal (Americas)
1980--Moscow (Europe/Africa)
1984--Los Angeles (Americas)
1988--Seoul (Asia--First Olympics on Asian Mainland)
1992--Barcelona (Europe)
1996--Atlanta (Americas)
2000-Sydney (Asia/Australia)
2004--Athens (Europe)
2008--Beijing (Asia/Australia)
2012--London (Europe)
2016--Rio (Americas--first Olympic games in South America)
2020--Tokyo (Asia/Australia)
2024--Likely Europe or Africa (Nairobi, Casablanca, Durban, Paris, Hamburg, Rome, Kiev, Istanbul and Baku are making bids, there are also bids from North American and Asian cities)
2028--Likely Americas (Guadalajara or USA (Dallas/San Francisco/Los Angeles))
2032--Likely Asia
2036--Likely Africa or Europe
2040--Likely Americas

Winter Games

1924--Chaminioux
1928--St. Moritz (First Winter games not held in the same country as the summer games.)
1932--Lake Placid
1936--Garmisch-Partenkirken
1940--Canceled, but would have been held in Saporro
1944--Canceled, but would have been held in Cortina d'Ampezzo
1948--St. Moritz (IOC stopped the practice of having the winter games in same country as summer games.)
1952--Oslo
1956--Cortina d'Ampezzo
1960--Squaw Valley (Lake Taho area--Americas).
1964--Insbruck (Europe)
1968--Grenoble (Europe)
1972--Saporro (Asia, first winter games held in Asia)
1976--Insbruck (Originally scheduled for Denver)
1980--Lake Pacid (Americas)
1984--Sarajevo (Europe)
1988--Calgary (Americas)
1992--Alberville (Europe)
1994--Lillehammer (Europe, Winter games began to be held in even numbered years opposite of summer games, last time consecutive winter games held in same continent.)
1998--Nagano (Asia)
2002--Salt Lake City (Americas)
2006--Turino (Europe)
2010--Vancouver (Americas)
2014--Sochi (Europe)
2018--Pyongchang (Asia)
2022--Likely Europe (Oslo, Munich, Krakow or L'viv as USOC passed on the chance to bid for these games.)
2026--Likely Americas (Most likely a US city, unless US hosts 2024 Summer games or decides to bid on 2028 Summer games.)
2030--Likely Asia/Australia
2034--Likely Europe
2038--Likely Americas

Note: Winter games have never been held south of the equator.