Monday, November 27, 2017

Did Ty Detmer Deserve to Get Fired

BYU fans a split on this.  Did the BYU legend deserve to get fired.  Let's look at the arguments on both sides of the coin.

He should have stayed:

1.  Injuries.  BYU played 4 quarterbacks in 2018.  They had injuries at every single offensive position.  Nobody wins under those circumstances.

2.  His Recruits: The players he had to use were not guys he recruited for his system, but Bronco Mendenhall leftovers

3.  Schedule:  It was brutal.

4.  He's a legend:  You just don't fire a legend.

Counter Arguments to he should have stayed:

1.  Injuries are a part of football.  BYU has been through this before and still found a way to win.  The 1992 Aloha Bowl season is a prime example of this, where Tom Young, who started the season 4th on the depth chart at the start of the season, started the bowl game and BYU lost because of two missed field goals.  The guys down the depth chart need to be ready to start.

2.  Once you accept the job, the guys on the team are "your guys".  In college football, if you don't have the guys you want, hit the junior college ranks and get the guys that fit your system.  You don't have to wait for them to return from missions.

3.  Yes, the schedule WAS brutal when you looked at it from the beginning of the season.  You can argue that Mississippi State and Wisconsin were probably unwinnable games for the Cougars.  However, Utah barely became bowl eligible.  Boise State is having a down year.  LSU lost games that they should have won.  This was a long-shot, but a winnable game.

4.  There is a long list of 'legends' who have not successfully made the transition to coaching.  Micheal Jordan, Magic Johnson, Bart Starr, Larry Bird and many others.  Ty Detmer is not alone.  In fact, this field is crowded with names.

Here is the real case against Detmer:

1.  Performance.  BYU's offense was simply dismal.  Seven of BYU's 13 opponents had their best defensive game against BYU in 2017

Portland State--Held BYU to 20 points.  Their next best defensive outing was against Montana State, who scored 30.  The Vikings were winless in 2017.

LSU--BYU was the only team the 8-4 Tigers shut out.

Utah--Held BYU to 13 points, the same point total the Colorado Buffaloes where held to.

Wisconsin--BYU was the only team the Badgers kept out of the end zone.

Boise State--BYU scored 7.  They held both Utah State and San Diego State to 14, their next best defensive games.

East Carolina--Had their best defensive game against BYU.  Their next best outing was the 20 points against Cincinnati

UMass--Had their best defensive game against BYU.  Two teams, Tennessee and Old Dominion scored 17 against the Minutemen.

Other teams that had better than average defensive outings against BYU

Utah State--Scored 2 defensive touchdowns against the Cougars

Hawaii--The 30 points the Warriors allowed were one of their better defensive games.  Only the Wyoming Cowboys and the FCS Western Carolina Catamounts had worse offensive outings.

UNLV--had a better than average defensive performance against BYU

San Jose State--Gave up 41 points to the Cougars.  This was their 4th best defensive game of the season.

Fresno State and Mississippi State had average defensive outings against the Cougars.

But in no game of the 2017 football season did BYU's offense do better than average against anyone's defense.  Not one.  The tally.  BYU played 13 games.  7 teams had their best defensive game of the season.  4 other teams had a better than average defensive performance.  2 teams had an average defensive performance.

2.  Tanner Mangum's career.

Tanner's 2017 was by far worse than the 2015 season where he filled in for Taysom Hill after he left in the Nebraska game.  His raw QBR in 2017 is half of what is was in 2015, under Bronco Mendenhall and Robert Anae.  Half.

Arguably, Tanner Mangum's 2017 season was a career killer.  I would not blame him if he transferred and played somewhere else in 2018.

3.  It's not just the quarterback.  The entire offense was dismal.  The offensive line play was bad.  Receivers couldn't catch the ball, even well thrown balls.  The running game was absent except against UNLV and Hawaii.  The only good passing game of the season was against San Jose State.

5.  Stats do not lie.  BYU was near the bottom in the NCAA in nearly every single offensive category:

Completion %--104 out of 129 (Some of those that are lower are teams like Army, that do not throw the ball very often.)

First Downs--105

Fumbles Lost--70

Interceptions--Tied for 125 with 3 other schools.  Only San Jose State threw more interceptions.

Passing Offense--91

Passing Yards Per Completion--110

Red Zone Offense--119

Sacks Allowed--Tied for 65 with 8 other schools

Scoring Offense--123

Tackles for Loss Allowed--5 (The bright spot on the BYU offense.  Likely indicates, when compared with the other stats that the play calling was ultra conservative.)

Time of Possession--108

Total Offense--118

Turnover Margin--118

4.  It can not be argued that the entire team was as bad.  The defense could have been better in some games.  BYU was 48th in total defense.  With a better performance from the offense, the defense gets more rest, more time to talk about strategy, and gets a better performance.  With an average NCAA offense, which scored 27 points in 2017.  BYU gets 5 more wins assuming their opponents score the same number of points.  They also give LSU a game.  BYU's losses would have been to LSU and Wisconsin and Mississippi State.  East Carolina and Utah State score fewer points because there are fewer opportunities for them to score.

BYU also was near the top of the NCAA in fewest penalties per game.

How about special teams.  It was a mixed bag.  BYU was 22 in Kickoff Return Defense.  In net punting, BYU was 12.  BYU was 122 in kickoff returns.  But there are a lot of touchbacks in Provo.

5.  BYU becomes irrelevant if they string together seasons like this.  Wisconsin scheduled BYU to improve their strength of schedule.  BYU did not hold up their end of the bargain.  Wisconsin went undefeated in the Big 10 and should be number 1.  How can anyone get through the Big 10 schedule undefeated and not be number 1?  One of the reasons they are not.  SOS.  A 9 win BYU team, and Wisconsin has a better shot at the national championship provided they beat Ohio State.  They definately would get a few more #1 votes.

Teams have schedule BYU not because they are a pushover, but because they improve their rankings.  If BYU becomes a pushover, their independence experiment is a failure.  If the MWC does not take them back (and why should they), where do they go?  Conference USA? Sun Belt?  Big Sky?

6.  Attendance.  BYU's attendance was below 50,000 for the last two games of the season.  They need to give fans a reason to show up.  This year's BYU team did not.

Not relevant arguments:

Ty Detmer won the Heisman Trophy, he deserves a shot.  Having been on the short end of a few such arguments with my boss, this is completely irrelevant to the argument.  No one can rest on past accomplishments and expect to maintain their employment.  In fact, this is probably why he lasted until the end of the season.  If it had been someone else, he would have been gone after the Utah State game.

BYU doesn't pay enough and can't get anyone better.  The truth is that there are coaching staffs in the NCAA who don't make as much as BYU's coaching staff and are doing much better.  We do not know how well Ty Detmer was paid.  According to some estimates, BYU and UCF pay about the same.  UCF is 11-1 this year.  10-2 Toledo, less than half.  Better performance at BYU means that coaches look to Provo as a stepping stone and will come.

They don't have to win the National Championship every season.  However, 6 wins is not an unrealistic expectation.  That is all that had to happen this year.  It did not.

Saturday, October 7, 2017

It's Not the End of The World

Who was BYU's head football coach the last time the team was 1-5?

Yes, it was LaVell Edwards.  It was his 2nd season.

Going into a home game against New Mexico on November 3, 1973, BYU was 1-5 before Gary Sheide and the new pass-happy offense rolled up 56 points against the Lobos.  There were two big differences between BYU football then and BYU football today.  First, the expectations were much lower.  Edwards believed he would only get a few seasons at BYU before getting fired.  He could build up his resume before going on to be a coordinator at Utah State or somewhere else.  His passing scheme just wasn't clicking before this game.  Their defense couldn't stop anyone.  Future Dallas Cowboy, Danny White, passed for 303 yards 3 touchdowns no sacks and no interceptions as the Sundevils crush BYU 52-12.  However, that is what was expected.  No one was leaving the bandwagon back in those days because no one was on it.  Arizona State of 1973 was much like Boise State of today.

The other difference between BYU of then and BYU of today is the schedule.  Of those 6 opponents in 1973, 3 were what we now consider Power-5 programs, and yes, I would put Arizona State of 1973 into that category, as the Frank Cush-led Sun Devils were among the nation's elite back then.  But those program were not elite programs like BYU faced this year.  The other two power programs were Iowa State and Oregon State.  The Cyclones and the Beavers, even then, like today, were in power conferences but not the elite programs of their respective conferences.  The other losses in 1973 came to Colorado State, Utah State and Wyoming.  These football programs then, were like these football programs are today, were good but not elite.  Today LSU, Utah and Wisconsin are arguably the creme de la creme.  Mississippi State, who has BYU next, is also one of those elite programs.  The 1973 schedule was a spanking machine.  The 2017 schedule is like running though a sting a guillotines.

BYU would finish 1973 with a 5-6 record with their last loss of that season coming to Arizona in Provo.  Their other wins were against Weber State, Utah and UTEP where BYU would score 45, 46 and 63 points, respectively.  At that time, the 63-0 victory against the Miners was the most lopsided victory in school history.  Those scores showed the potential of the offense that scored 7 against Utah State, 12 against Arizona State, 13 against Colorado State and 10 against Arizona.

In 1974, BYU would start the season 0-3-1 before reeling off 7 straits wins and earning a bid to the Fiesta Bowl.  One of those 7 wins would be against the same elite Arizona State program.  In 1974, in spite of breaking in a new quarterback, the Sun Devils were still the WAC favorites.  ASU left Provo empty-handed at the short end of a 21-18 Cougar Victory.

In 2018, BYU starts the season against Arizona, California, Wisconsin and Washington with McNeese State mixed in and they conclude the season at Utah.  Reeling off 7 victories in a row against these schools would indeed be impressive, beating all of these schools as well as beating the teams they would be expected to beat would earn them a shot a big bowl game and make Tanner Mangum a high NFL draft pick.  One similarity between 1974 and 2018 is that as 1974 was no easier than 1973, 2018 will be no easier than 2017. 

Back then, BYU got better.  LaVell Edwards and his assistants got better.  No need to rehash what Edwards did in his career after 1973.  Edwards is now a legend for what he did afterwards.  1973 wasn't the end of the world, but a new beginning.  In 2017, BYU can get better.  Kalani Sitake can be better.  Ty Detmer and the other assistants can be better.  They do not have to set their sights on being legends, just getting better.  At the end of the 1973 season, no one expected LaVell Edwards would go on to win 257 games and 19 conference championships.  Back then, they only focused on improving.

Even the most elite programs in college football, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas, USC and others have a bad season now and then.  BYU can learn from them as well.  Like 1973, Rock Bottom can be the foundation for greater things to come.  Sometimes it is good for history to repeat.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

Taking a Knee

I have not been blogging about College Football this year.  I, like some other, have been losing my interest in American Football.  I have found other things to occupy me on Saturday.  There are many reasons for this.  Mostly, I do not enjoy seeing the same teams win year after year.  Like many other sports, however, I feel that Football forgets to put the fans first.

I believe in the first amendment and free speech, and I celebrate it.  However, my love of the game diminished when I saw Colin Kaepernick take a knee during the national anthem last year, and see many players in all sorts of sport events all over sport follow suit.

Every single month, I pay $90 to Direct TV.  My apartment complex "offers" a media package.  They offer it as in, "you take it or you can find somewhere else to live."  Most places around town do this.  Until I can take out a mortgage and find a place of my own, I have to live with this.  A little over 1/3 of that fee, I am not entirely certain of the exact amount because Direct TV does not break it down for me, goes toward my internet connection.  Behind that, the second largest part of the package is ESPN, at least that is according to my research.

Even though I live 500 miles from Denver and 600 miles from Phoenix, I can't watch the Rockies or the Diamondbacks on TV.  MLB blacks out those games in my area so that the local stations who cover those teams can broadcast those games without competition from ESPN.  But for my $90, I do not get the cable stations that cover the closest MLB teams to my home, because there is not enough interest in those teams to warrant including it in the base package.

How do I get repaid for the $90 extra dollars?  I get politics shoved down my throat.

Sports is entertainment.  It is supposed to give me a release from the pressures of the real world.  It is supposed to give me pride in my community.  The National Anthem at the beginning of the game honors those who made this all least it should.

But it is not really the ingratitude for the country that makes me upset.  It's the ingratitude for the fans.  Where does your paycheck come from?

Collin Kaepernick's salary was 11.9 million in 2016.  The San Francisco 49er's probably did not make enough money from selling tickets to pay their players.  The average ticket price at Levi's stadium is reported to be $117.  The stadium has a capacity of 68,000 seats.  This means that the 49ers make just under 8 million per game from ticket sales.  This is 63 million for the entire season if the team does not make the playoffs.  Kaepernick is not the only millionaire on the team.  The typical NFL team makes much more money from sponsorship, TV revenue, licensing and other activities.

Two years ago, the biggest NFL sponsor was Gatorade.  This would not be possible if Gatorade didn't sell so well at your local Piggly Wiggly.  The reason why Gatorade sells so well?  Sports and athletes at all levels.  Sports drinks are even beginning to catch soda in their popularity.

The second largest NFL sponsor, and probably the largest sponsor of sports in the entire world is in your wallet.  It's not Capital One, it's Visa.

The other big sponsors of the NFL and of sports in general are names that you and I use every day.  FedEx, Frito Lay, Mars snacks and Pepsi are all big sponsors.

The point is, no matter where you turn, the money that funds sports ultimately comes from people like you and me.  All of us are helping to pay for an NFL team even if we are hundreds of miles from the nearest NFL stadium and never watch a single game on TV.  Even if we are not subscribers to ESPN or any cable TV package that includes it.  Chances are, no matter how hard you try, you can't avoid paying for sports in this country unless you live on a self-sustaining farm in a county that is too small to sponsor a high school sports team, don't have any media in your home and never drive into town.  Where in America can you do that?

If you live in a sports town, you pay dearly for your team.  Tax money is diverted from roads, schools, other infrastructure, police, fire and other essential services to pay for stadiums and arenas.  If you don't pay, your team moves.

A strike against sports will not work because it is impossible to boycott every dollar that flows into the National Football League, or any other sports league.

How do we get repaid for our sponsorship of sports?  We see our athletes take a knee at a time when they should show respect.

Do things need to change in this country?  Absolutely they do.

Are racism, sexism, homophobia and ethnic discrimination still big problems in the United States?  Certainly.

Do we need to call attention to solving the problem?  Yes.

Is kneeling for the National Anthem fixing the problem?  No.  It is fanning the flames.  It is deepening the divide instead of healing it.

There are better ways to deal with these problems.  Yes, there are.

Does kneeling for the flag call attention to you the player, or to the problem you want to solve.  For Collin Kaepernick, one is the same as the other.  That is really the problem that I have with it all.  These issue are bigger than any one person.  It is killing my enthusiasm for sports in general and I am not alone.  I don't need this in my life.  I live in Utah, and I am a tank full of gas away from the most scenic places in the world.  I can get my sports fix by doing things I enjoy, and perhaps should have done when I was younger.

But there is a problem and how do we solve the problem?  Education.

Instead of taking a knee before the anthem, do what Major League Soccer does.  Run a stadium ad before every game.  Run the add on TV before you show the national anthem.  How about this statement before every game:

"Hello, this is NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.  In the NFL we welcome those from all races.  We don't pay our employees less because they are female.  We don't turn away anyone who is gay, lesbian, bi-sexual or transgender.  We don't discriminate against anyone who was born in a different country.  We respect people from all religions, including those who don't believe in a supreme being at all.  We encourage all of America to follow our example.  Please rise and remove your hats as Boy George sings our National Anthem."

Friday, June 2, 2017

Will Salt Lake Host the Winter Olympics Again, 2017? 2017 Eidition

A few year ago, I wrote this.  The question I asked was would Salt Lake host the Winter Games again?  A lot has changed since then.

First of all, I wrote that the IOC likes to spread the games around.  However, in bidding for the 2022 games, all of the cities dropped out except for Beijing and Almaty.  This was due to the expense of the games in Sochi and due to the publication of what neglected Olympic sites look like now.  Cities do not want to spend billions for facilities that will only be used once.  Sochi was the most expensive Olympic games ever, bar none.  Most of Sochi's sites will never host another winter event, although the stadium is one of the World Cup stadia for 2018.  Sochi is a summer resort town.

That is why the 2018 Winter Games, the 2020 Summer Games and the 2022 Winter Games will all be in Asia.  This has not happened since the early days of the modern Olympic movement.

Los Angeles is bidding for the 2024 summer games.  Paris is considered the favorite to host these games.  The heart of LA's bid is that they can do it on the cheap.  Most of the events will be at venues that have already been built, including many that were used in 1984.  That really gives LA no advantage over Paris, as they also have many existing venues and can host the games at a low cost.

Will LA bid for the 2028 games if they lose out?  Traditionally, summer sites do not bid for more than one Olympiad in a row.  Right now, the USOC is putting all of its eggs in the 2024 LA basket.  The USOC is not planning to bid for either the 2026 Winter games nor the 2028 Summer games.  The 2028 games will likely come to the Americas if Paris is selected, but LA is already at a huge disadvantage.  Toronto, Guadalajara and Buenos Aires already are pursuing the bid in 2028 and likely are the front runners.  Likely Canada, Mexico and all of South America will vote for Paris in hopes to improve their chances to host the games in 2028.  Both Toronto and Guadalajara plan to make heavy use of existing facilities to lower costs.  If the USOC was willing to let LA also bid for 2028, and do so publicly, they would improve the chances of LA getting the games in 2024 and trump any the advantage that Paris has with the other Western Hemisphere countries that want the games.  Sounds like circular logic, I know.  This is the way the Olympic bidding works.

The best shot the US has at hosting the Olympics before 2040 is to host a winter games.  To do it on the cheap, Salt Lake or Lake Placid are the only cities with existing facilities.  A lot of Lake Placid's facilities for the 1980 games have been re-purposed.

There are other cities that want to host a Winter Games, but Salt Lake has advantages in addition to cost.  The main disadvantages are the climate and culture.  The main climate disadvantage is the pollution in the winter time.  This was not really a problem in 2002.  Usually, by February the inversions are gone for the year.  The main culture problem is not the Mormon issue.  It is the push against the national monuments, which makes it look like Utahans are against visitors and environmental preservation.

The best advantage that Salt Lake has is that most of the venues built for 2002 have been put to continuous use and have been kept in good repair.  This also makes Salt Lake a good backup city in case any winter games in the future are delayed due to natural disaster or political unrest.

If the USOC isn't willing to allow a bid for the 2026 winter games, Calgary or Innsbruck will get them and get the chance to prove that recycled facilities will work.  This will improve Salt Lake's chances with both the USOC and the IOC.  The 2030 will then become the first chance the US will host the games again, and the US should consider using Salt Lake City again, especially if Innsbruck is selected for 2026.  Realistically, if the USOC doesn't want to host the 2026 games, the first best shot the US has for winter is 2030 or 2034.

*********************************** weekend, the IOC will vote on a proposal to award the 2024 AND 2028 games in September.  If this passes, the 2024 games are expected to go to Paris and the 2028 games are expected to go to Los Angeles.  However, this proposal will give host cities in the future more time to plan the games and more time to develop plans for post-Olympic use of the facilities.  That is one thing that Salt Lake City did better than almost any Olympic city, summer or winter.

Monday, November 28, 2016

If Utah Coaches Leave this Year--2016 Edition

In college football, the Monday after the last day of the football season is known as Black Monday.  It is the day that most college coaches who are going to get fired will lose their jobs.  This happens quickly because the battle for new recruits begins after the season ends.  If you do not have a coach, you could lose out.  According to Coaches Hot Seat, as many as 30 coaches could lose their jobs this week.  However, usually less than 10 do.

I do not expect any changes in Utah's head coaches, but it could happen.  I don't see any higher than a 15% chance that any coach in Utah will leave.  However, after last season, I thought that Bronco Mendenhall had a 90% chance of remaining, yet he surprised almost everyone.

From Most to Least Likely

Utah's Kyle Whittingham

Impressions on the his job status:  Many fans are disappointed in how the season came to an end, losing 3 of the last 4.  However, I don't see anyone with credibility calling for Whit to step aside.

Reason he would leave:  Greener pastures, however I do not see him leaving Utah for another college like Notre Dame.  But the NFL may come calling.

Possible next job: NFL Head Coach

Reason he will stay: Dr. Chris Hill will pull out all of the stops to keep KW where he is, as he has before.  There are many jobs that pay more than he makes in Utah, and his name has been linked to other openings in the past, but he has remained in Utah.

Chances he will leave: No higher than 15%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Stanford DC Lance Anderson: Successful.  Recruits in Utah.  Familiar with the Conference.
2.  Oregon State HC Gary Anderson: Maybe this was the job he's been after all along
3.  Utah DC Morgan Scalley: Long time, true blooded Ute who is paying his dues.  Perhaps it is time for him to cash in.
4.  Utah State HC Matt Wells: Last year he was at the top of this list.  He's lost some luster after this last season.
5.  Weber State HC Jay Hill: Former Utah assistant who is working miracles up the road.
<10 p="">
<10 p="">Conclusion: KW will likely retire as the coach of the Utes in 5-10 years.

Weber State HC Jay Hill

<10 p="">
<10 p="">Impressions on his job security: Weber State made the playoffs just 3 years removed from 3 consecutive 2 win seasons.  The short turn around has been remarkable.

Reason he would leave: Look at what he has done in 3 short years in Ogden.  He has to be on some short lists.

Reason he would stay: Wife is ill.  Not a good time for his family to make a job change, especially if it involves a change in location.  Utah or Utah State, maybe.  Anywhere else, probably not.

Possible next job: FBS, G5, Head Coach

Chances he will leave: Less than 10%<10 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Weber State OC Fesi Sitake: Popular with the team.  Good recruiter.
2.  Weber State AHC Brent Meyers: Would be a good choice to continue what Hill has done
3.  Weber State STC Colton Swan: Been in Ogden for a long time, would provide consistency
4.  Weber State DC Jason Kafusi: Been in the state a long time.  Good recruiting connections
<10 p=""><10 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p="">Conclusion: Jay will eventually coach at the FBS level, but will be at Weber another 2-3 years.

Utah State HC Matt Wells

Reason he would leave: Can't think of a reason he would leave right now.  If USU had a winning season, Wells would be a hotter commodity at another school.  Considering the inconsistency he has had in his staff, seeing Wells in a lesser light because of this season would be a mistake, but that is the way life is in college football.  Wells, so far, has been this most successful coach at USU since Phil Krueger.  There is no reason for USU to let him go.

Reason he would stay: After a losing season, has a chip on his shoulder, something to prove.  Lost some of his luster after a losing season.

Possible next job: Head coach for a Power 5 program.

Chances he will leave: Less than 5%<1 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Weber State HC Jay Hill:  Again, look at what Hill has done in Ogden in 3 years.
2.  Utah DC Morgan Scalley: The guy has paid his dues and is perhaps ready to be a head coach.  May not get the chance in Salt Lake City
3.  BYU AHC Ed Lamb: Lamb was successful at SUU.  Considered "the glue" in BYU's coaching staff.  Not being LDS, Lamb will never be the head coach at BYU.
4.  Wyoming OC Brent Vigen: Laramie is a tough place to be successful...need I say more
5.  Someone on the USU staff
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: At least 1-2 more years of Matt Wells at Utah State.

BYU HC Kalani Sitake

Reason he would leave: BYU can't match a P5 salary, and many G5 programs...that is why Kalani got the job in the first place.

Reason he would stay: He is just getting started and has yet to prove himself.  Likely little interest in from other programs.  Likely little interest he would have in pursuing another job.  And as far as losing his job, no one fires a head coach after an 8-win season unless they really mess up.

Possible next job: PAC-12 Head Coach, NFL Head Coach

Chances he will leave: Less than 1%
<1 p="">
Short list of possible replacements:

1.  (Popular choice) OC Ty Detmer: There would be cheers from many in Cougarland, even though Ty has only 1 year as a coodinator under his belt.
2.  DC Iliasa Tuiaki: The more I see of Tuiaki, the more I like him.  I think many in Provo see it the same way.  In a few years, he may surpass Detmer as Sitake's heir apparent.  He will be a head coach sooner or later somewhere.
3.  Weber State HC Jay Hill: See above
4.  Utah Co-OC Aaron Roderick: Why not bring another prodigal son home?
5.  Snow College HC Britt Maughan: He we the dark horse when Mendenhall left.  Could be the dark horse again.
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Kalani may not finish his career in Provo, but it will be at least 5 years before he goes somewhere else.

SUU Head Coach Demario Warren

Reason he would leave: It actually pays better to be an FBS coordinator than and FCS head coach.

Reason he would stay: Like Sitake, Warren is new at this and needs another season or two to get his feet under him.

Chances he will leave: Almost infinitesimal

Possible next job: Defense coordinator at an FBS school.

Short list of possible replacements:

1.  Utah assistant Justin Ena: He was in Cedar City for a number of years.  It's familiar territory for him and SUU
2.  An assistant, but not a coordinator, at any school in Utah
3.  An SUU assistant
4.  An assistant from another Big Sky School
5.  A successful Division II head coach
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Conclusion: Demario Warren will be in Cedar City for a few more years.

High profile jobs that have already been filled:

Ed Orgeron-LSU
Tom Herman-Texas
Jeff Tedford-Fresno State

Likely and/or Current Openings (According to Coaches Hot Seat, which isn't the best source)

Notre Dame (Coach Brian Kelly has resigned)
Texas Tech
Boston College
Arizona State
Texas A&M
San Jose State

Coaches on the hot seat who may get one more year

Chris Ash-Rutgers
Gary Anderson-Oregon State
Bret Beilema-Arkansas
Tony Sachez-UNLV
Jim Mora-UCLA

PAC-12 coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season other than KW:

Probably none.

MWC head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:

1.  Wyoming HC Craig Bohl 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">2.  San Diego State HC Rocky Long 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3.  Boise State HC Bryan Harsin 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4.  New Mexico HC Bob Davie 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">Big Sky Conference head coaches who are not on the hot seat who could leave after this season:

1.  Eastern Washington HC Beau Baldwin
2.  Cal Poly HC Tim Walsh 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">3.  North Dakota HC Bubba Schweigert 
<10 p=""><10 p=""><1 p=""><1 p="">4.  Weber State HC Jay Hill 

Monday, October 17, 2016

The Big 12 is Not Expanding After All

The Big 12 will not expand after all, and BYU will remain independent for the extended future.  I did not hop on the Big 12 expansion rumors because I more than a little doubt it would actually happen as the process moved on.

It's not that the Universities in the conference do not want BYU's baggage, although there is some of that, it's mostly the media partners who are saying no.  They are the ones who pony up the money.  They are the ones who are at risk if there is an advertising boycott.  BYU is up against a very powerful and wealthy group intent on creating permanent change to American culture and the LDS church is standing in the way.

So far, it is not as bad as it could be.  Schools have not refused to play BYU in sports, nor has there been any move to strip BYU of its accreditation, yet.  I do not feel as if those in that community feel that they have done enough.

Also, keep in mind that you are up against a group that knows how to chose the battles that they fight.

But that is not the only thing about American Culture that is changing.  The model that college football is on at this time is not sustainable.  The TV money will not be around forever.  Either it will remain flat and inflation will catch up, or it will fall.  BYU is in a good position to ride it out, where others are not.  BYU will not be kept out of the top tier forever.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Big Sky Divisions for 2017 with Idaho Returning

This also includes some alternative proposals:

The Vandals return to the Big Sky Conference next season.  Perhaps it is time to pick divisions.  In the FCS, divisions are for scheduling.  There is no prevision for a championship game.  The Big Sky conference has rarely been denied a second NCAA bid in the playoffs.  It would be nice to decide a champion on the field.  Perhaps the NCAA will change the rule and allow the two division champions to meet in Las Vegas to determine who will get the auto bid.  When the CAA or other conference that has had divisions, usually they are both awarded a championship unless the two division champions met in the regular season.  Then the winner of that game is awarded the championship.  The NCAA auto bid would go to the higher ranked of the two teams.

The division names, by my choice, are after the two most popular national parks in the west.

The Yellowstone Division

Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Montana State
North Dakota
Portland State

The Grand Canyon Division

Cal Poly
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Northern Colorado
Southern Utah
Sacramento State
Weber State

How the scheduling works

Each team will play 1 designated rival from the other division, plus one other game on a rotational basis.  That will give the conference teams 8 games.  The teams can play games against teams from the other division as non-conference games.  However, this proposal has a problem.  Weber State is one of the founders of the conference, and the other four founders: Idaho, Idaho State, Montana and Montana State will be together in the other division.  Weber State would likely be assigned Idaho State as a recognized rival, and then play the other four founders once every six years.  One way around this would be to switch with either Portland State or North Dakota, which would obviously present travel issues.

Alternative Proposal 1:

However, I have a solution to fix this that perhaps has not been discussed, or may it has.  Cal Poly and UC Davis are in the Big West Conference.  Is it possible, and I am not sure that it is, to resurrect the Big West Football Conference (Similar to the Missouri Valley Football Conference) and allow some schools to leave the Big Sky Conference for Football.  For Example:

Big Sky Conference:

Eastern Washington
Idaho State
Montana State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
Weber State

Big West Football Conference:

Cal Poly
UC Davis
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Diego

Alternate Proposal 2:  Keeping Idaho at the FBS level.

FBS Big Sky Conference (Primary Conference if not Big Sky)

Cal Poly (Big West)
Eastern Washington
Hawai'i (Big West)
Montana State
North Dakota State (Summitt)
Portland State
Sacramento State

Grand Canyon Conference (FCS Big Sky...Probably must have a different name.)

UC Davis (Big West)
Idaho State
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Northern Arizona
Southern Utah
San Diego (WCC)
Weber State