Speculation--Will the PAC-12 Expand?

May 26, 2021.

No, I do not believe that expansion is in the cards for the PAC-12 in the immediate future.  I don't believe the conference has problems that expansion is the answer to.  The main reason is that you can easily eliminate all the potential contenders.

1. The PAC-12 will not be able to add any Big 12 teams because the PAC-12 offers nothing to them that they do not already have.

2. The PAC-12 will not add BYU because of irreconcilable differences.  I can make a market case to add BYU, but the Provo school's sponsor and their stance on LGBTQ rights and on not playing games on Sunday are non-negotiable.  

Here is my argument for BYU.  10 of the 12 PAC-12 schools are located in the same metro area of temples of the church.  (Oregon and Washington State are the two that lack a temple.)  3 have multiple temples: UCLA/USC, Arizona State and Utah are located where there are multiple temples.  Where you have temples, you have active members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.  Where you have active church members, you have BYU alumni.

This is something that the Big 12 does not have.  Only Oklahoma, Kansas, TCU and Texas Tech are near temples.

3. The PAC-12 will not add Boise State because of market size.

4. The PAC-12 will not add UNLV because they already have Las Vegas in their pocket.

5. The PAC-12 will not add Hawaii because they no longer have the facilities that a Power-5 conference needs.

6.  The PAC-12 will not add San Jose State because they already own the Bay Area.

7.  The PAC-12 will not add Nevada because of market size.

8.  There is only one school that makes the cut.  San Diego State.  The Aztecs are in a large city and market.  But they are the only school it makes sense for the conference to add.  They will not become the PAC-13.  It can also be argued that any PAC-12 school will beat San Diego State in recruiting 9 times out of 10.  You have Utah in the PAC-12, but kids from the state of Utah are still going to other schools in the PAC-12 when recruited by them.

9.  I can make a case for Air Force.  There are 7 large Air Force bases in PAC-12 territory.  (McChord, Travis, Edwards, Luke, Hill, Peterson and The Academy itself)  But there are no other service academies in the Power-5.  The argument is similar to BYU's at this point.  Service academies have a difficult time landing NFL-potential talent.

 Life, however, can does and will change.