We are now into the heart of the conference season in 2012, the first season of the Bigger Big Sky Conference. How is it working out so far? So far, it appears to be business as usual, which means that it is not working the way that Doug Fullerton predicted. But that could change by season's end.
When expanding to 13 members, commissioner Fullerton predicted that the conference would go from a 2-3 bid conference to a 4-5 bid conference. If the playoffs were held today, there would be no doubt that Eastern Washington and Montana State would be selected for the post season. Beyond that, it is a crap shoot. You have the possibility that Cal Poly would be the third team selected, but they are definitely on the bubble right now. Northern Arizona has an outside chance, but will need some help to get in...meaning that some bubble teams from other conferences will need to loose out an make room for the Lumberjacks. Because other conferences will get automatic bids with unranked teams, and there are only 20 playoff spots, a team really needs to be in the top 15 to get a bid.
Here is a look at the post-season chances for each Big Sky Conference team.
The Contenders
Montana State (#2/2)...Currently 5-0, 2-0. The remaining schedule is kind to the Bobcats. Remaining home games: EWU, North Dakota, Portland State. Remaining road games: UCD, Sacramento State and Montana. Chances are pretty good that MSU can drop a game and still get a second-round home game. Appear to be a lock for the playoffs baring a complete melt-down
Eastern Washington (#7/7)...Currently 4-1, 2-0. The one loss was a close one to FBS Washington State and they have a win over FBS Idaho. The performance against the upper division teams should be a bonus for the Eagles come selection time if they end up with a 7-4 or 8-3 record by season's end and should help them get a second round home game. Remaining home games: North Dakota, Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis. Remaining home games: Montana State, Southern Utah and Portland State.
Cal Poly (#19/20)...Currently 4-0, 2-0. Perhaps the Mustangs are not ranked as high as they should be this season. They have a date with Eastern Washington looming to prove that they deserve better than to be lingering on the bubble. Otherwise, the schedule is favorable. Remaining home games: Northern Colorado, Portland State, Idaho State. Remaining road games: Weber State, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona.
Northern Arizona (#21/18)...4-1, 2-0. The Lumberjacks have been a surprise so far in 2012. Other than a loss to Arizona State, it has been all wins. Between now and the end of the season, the Lumberjacks have games that they should win, and they avoid playing Eastern Washington or Montana State. This means that NAU could get the automatic bid, even if they are ranked lower than EWU or MSU, as is now the case. Remaining Home Games: UCD, SUU, Cal-Poly. Remaining road games: North Dakota, Northern Colorado and ISU.
Note: Eastern Washington and Cal Poly have wins over FBS schools and that would be a tie breaker. If EWU and NAU both end up unbeaten, EWU would get the automatic bid as the teams do not play each other. NAU could get the automatic bid if they win the remainder of their games, which includes a game against Cal-Poly and the other contenders each lose a game. Best scenario for NAU is to beat Cal-Poly, have Cal-Poly beat EWU and see EWU drop Montana State.
If they playoffs were held today, the BSC would have a good argument to get Cal Poly in, but it is a long shot. NAU, probably not.
Really on the bubble
North Dakota and Sacramento State are both at 3-2. They have a little, but not much, wiggle room left. But are really on the outside looking in.
Sacramento State
The Hornets have the roughest schedule remaining of anyone in the Big Sky. They have to play Cal-Poly, Eastern Washington and Montana State. If they win 2 of these three and all of their remaining games, they will have a strong case for making the playoffs as they also have a win over Colorado. Remaining home games: Weber State, Cal Poly, Montana State. Remaining road games: Southern Utah, Eastern Washington, UC Davis
North Dakota
The Sioux have some work to do. They have one of the "quality" losses on the road to FBS San Diego State. But the loss to Cal-Poly, a chance to improve their playoff chances, hurts a little. Their bubble could burst permanently at Eastern Washington. They still have a couple of chances to improve their chances, but they will have to win them both. Remaining home games: Northern Arizona, Montana, Southern Utah. Remaining road games: Eastern Washington, Montana State, Northern Colorado.
On the outside looking in
With 3 losses, chances for making the playoffs are really dim at this point in the season.
2-3 teams
Montana is usually in playoff contention, but they are likely 1 loss away from staying home this year. They need to tackle the rest of the season with a sense of urgency. Remaining home games: Southern Utah, Idaho State, Montana State. Remaining road games: Northern Colorado, North Dakota, Weber State
Southern Utah lost a heart breaker to Montana State this weekend. It hurt more because of the 2 FBS losses. They have to get more wins to be eligible for the at-large bid. Remaining home games: Sacramento State, Weber State, Eastern Washington. Remaining road games: Montana, North Dakota, Northern Arizona
UC Davis has beaten the teams that they should, and handily. They have not looked as good in their losses. They will have to figure out a way to break through to clear a path to the playoffs. Remaining home games: Montana State, Portland State, Sacramento State. Remaining road games: Idaho State, Northern Arizona and Sacramento State
1-3 teams
Idaho State took an early bye and has only defeated Black Hills State, a NAIA school. Two of their losses are to FBS school. They have most of the conference schedule ahead of them with an early-season bye. They will have to figure out how to win against Division I schools to see the post season. Remaining home games: UC Davis, Northern Arizona, Weber State. Remaining road games: Portland State, Northern Colorado, Montana and Cal-Poly
Northern Colorado has also taken an early season bye. Their single victory is against Division II Colorado Mesa. They, also, will need to begin winning against Division I schools. Remaining home games: Montana, Idaho State, Northern Arizona, North Dakota. Remaining road games: Cal Poly, Portland State and Weber State
Probably looking forward to basketball season
Portland State is 1-4 and still mathematically in post-season contention; if PSU wins out, they are eligible for an at-large bid. But in reality already looking forward to next year.
Weber State is now 0-5 and has to win out and win the conference championship to be eligible for the post-season. It is no longer possible for WSU to win 7 games get an at-large bid. At least there is basketball season, as always, to look forward to in Ogden. They have a chance to play spoiler this Friday as they host Cal Poly.
Power Rankings
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. North Dakota
6. Sacramento State
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
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