BYU's Revised 2013 prospects, Utah State Could be the WAC Champion?, BYU's 2013 Schedule Complete?

BYU fans are upset after the loss at Boise State, and they should be.  For the second week in a row, the game was handed to the Cougars in the waning minutes, and the coaching staff and the team could not deliver.  There is a reason I say coaching staff.  The Utah game was lost in the 3^rd quarter, where too many mistakes were made to overcome in the 4^th quarter.  For much of the 2^nd half, BYU’s offens was in shell shock.  That happened because the Utah coaching staff made adjustments at half-time on defense that the BYU coaching staff was unprepared for.  I do not suppose that I need to rehash what happened at Boise State. 

BYU fans, however, should take heart.  I have looked at the Sagarin computer rankings, and BYU has done better than predicted.  BYU’s Sagarin predictor is 79.26 right now.  The home-field advantage add 2.38 points to the home team.  Here is how BYU has performed.

Washington State (predictor is at) 61.16—predicts a 20-point BYU victory, but BYU won by 24 points.
Weber State 52.89—predicts a 29-point BYU victory, BYU won by 32
Utah 74.96—predicts a 2-point BYU victory, Utah won by 3
Boise State 82.73—predicts a 6-point BSU victory, BSU won by 1

According to Sagarin, here BYU’s toughest remaining games from strongest to weakest

Notre Dame  88.40
Oregon State  78.46
Georgia Tech  77.11
Utah State  73.15
San Jose State  72.32
Hawaii  62.11
New Mexico State  53.82
Idaho  52.45

BYU has performed better than the Sagarin predictor in every game so far, except for the Utah game.  Here is remaining outcome for BYU as predicted by Sagarin.

Hawaii—Predicts a 19-point Cougar victory
Utah State—Predicts a 8-point BYU win
Oregon State—Predicts a 3-point BYU win
Georgia Tech—Predicts a 1-point GaTech win
Notre Dame—Predicts an 11-point Notre Dame win
Idaho—Predicts 29-point BYU win
San Jose State—Predicts a 4-point BYU win
New Mexico State—Predicts a 14-point BYU win

Right now, Sagarin predicts that BYU will finish the regular season 8-4.

In the Poinsettia Bowl, BYU would play the MWC #2 team, which should be Nevada.  They have a 75.21 predictor which means that BYU should win by 4.  That means that BYU should finish 9-4.

Here is the warning…Games are not played on paper or by the computer.  BYU is currently 88^th in points scored, and although the team has a fabulous defense, the offense is going to have to perform better than they did at Boise State and Utah in order to win.  If the offense does not settle down and score points, it will be easy for any game that the computers predict within 10 points to turn into losses.  Without better offensive performance, Utah State, Oregon State and San Jose State will turn into losses.  If this happens, BYU will end up below .500 for the first time since 2004 and for the first time in the Mendenhall era.  People will end up pointing to the incredulous 2-point decision at Boise and the offensive problems at Utah as the cause unless there is an even worse performance on the horizon.  If this happens, I guarantee that Brandon Doman and Mark Weber will not be back in 2013.

It may also be surprising to many that San Jose State this year is almost as strong at Utah State.  Personally, I think that Utah State is underrated.   But San Jose State is much improved over last year's team and should give BYU a good game.  If BYU is not prepared for this game...same goes for Utah State for that matter...San Jose State could pull off an upset.

On the flip side, BYU could beat Utah State, Oregon State and San Jose State as predicted.  They could win at Georgia Tech and they may even catch Notre Dame sleeping at home and finish with another 10-win regular season.  The next 3 home games are a turning point in BYU’s season this year.  Perhaps not all will be forgiven if BYU wins 10 games again, but much of the sting will be forgotten.

In other news: Louisiana Tech’s Tevin King is out for the season and this could clear the way for Utah State to go down in history as the last football champion of the Western Athletic Conference.  Never thought that would happen, did you?  Without super freshman King in the Louisiana Tech backfield, the WAC is now a 3-team race between La Tech, Utah State and San Jose State.

BYU has added Middle Tennessee to the 2013 schedule.  Officially, they have 11 opponents for 2013.  I suspect that the schedule is complete, because New Mexico State and Idaho will also be independent in 2013.  What I do not know is if Idaho is willing come to Provo for the 3^rd consecutive season, even if they are desperate for games.  Since BYU has the Hawaii exemption, it is a possibility that both New Mexico State and Idaho will end up on BYU’s 2013 schedule.  My hunch is that New Mexico State in Provo will be the 12^th opponent on the schedule, but I am not certain about Idaho.  

If BYU does not want to play in the 16,000 seat Kibbie Dome (which would give them 7 road games in 2013—something I’m sure Bronco Mendenhall does not want), they could play Idaho at a neutral site, like Joe Albi Stadium (Capacity 20,000) in Spokane, Martin Stadium (33,000) in Pullman (BYU is to play @ Washington State in 2013), Bronco Stadium in Boise (37,000) or even Bobcat Stadium (20,767) in Bozeman, Montana (within 200 miles of BYU-Idaho in Rexburg) or Washington-Grizzly Stadium (25,203) in Missoula, Montana (not very far from Moscow).  All of these stadiums have a larger seating capacity than the Kibbie Dome.   

In fact, sometime, BYU should consider finding temporary bleachers and playing a game at BYU-Idaho just for fun.  If Idaho needs to schedule BYU, why not consider it?  It would be cool to play a BYU/Idaho football game at BYU-Idaho, don't you agree?

Other possibilities for a neutral BYU/Idaho game include Jeld-Wenn Field in Portland, Oregon (33,000) or Century-Link Field (NFL Stadium) in Seattle.  If Idaho alumni are in these cities as claimed, any of these cities would be a good place for Idaho to have as a neutral-site game.

 

I speculate that the reasons these games have not been announced, yet, is because long-term deals have not yet been worked out.  Of course for both Idaho and New Mexico State, independence is just a bridge until they can work invites to other conferences (or until they give up and reclassify to the FCS).  The series with BYU would need to have a clause that the games could be called off if Idaho and New Mexico State receive those coveted invites.  However, because BYU is having trouble finding November games, they may be unwilling to have such an escape clause.  Especially since Idaho and New Mexico State have been so willing to play BYU late in the season.

Otherwise, BYU needs to return a favor to Idaho, who gave BYU a home game for 2 consecutive years, and play in the Kibbie Dome sometime.  If Idaho is going to survive as an independent, they should consider once again playing a game or two in the larger Joe Albi Stadium in nearby Spokane every season to better attract quality opponents.  This was once a regular practice for Idaho.  I know that BYU fans will be upset at me for saying so, but BYU owes Idaho a favor and should be willing to return it.  I can understand why BYU does not want to use the Hawaii exemption for a 7th road game in 2013.  That is why I am raising the possibility of a neutral-site game.