The Computer Predicts...Week 2

In week 1, Sagarin's formula predicted the winner in all 5 games involving Utah teams.  The margin of victory was narrower in than predicted in 4 of the 5 games.  Utah State gained ground on their competition, and are now projected to finish with a winning record and go bowling.  Even though Weber State and SUU beat the computer's projection, they lost ground on their competition.  The main reason for this is that a common opponents are Sacramento State and Northern Arizona, both who did much better than projected.

Brigham Young.
BYU and Ole Miss finished exactly where predicted.  No much changes on the projections for the Cougars.

September 3 Final BYU 14 Ole Miss 13...Computer predicted a 1 point Cougar victory.
September 10 Texas 17 BYU 16...Computer predicted an 8-point Longhorn victory.
September 17 Utah...BYU wins by 1. (0)
September 23 Central Florida...BYU wins by 8. (+)
September 30 Utah State...BYU wins by 18. (-)
October 8 San Jose State...BYU wins by 29. (+)
October 15 @ Oregon State...BYU loses by 1. (0)
October 22 Idaho State...BYU wins by 42. (+)
October 28 v TCU...BYU loses by 8. (+)
November 12 Idaho...BYU wins by 25. (+)
November 19 New Mexico State...BYU wins by 33. (+)
December 3 @ Hawaii...BYU wins by 3. (-)
Armed Forces Bowl, Dallas, TX
December 30 v Southern Mississippi...BYU wins by 9. (+)
BYU finishes 10-3 (0).

FBS Independents.
1. BYU
2. Navy
3. Notre Dame
4. Army

Utah
Utes gain ground on the conference, but it does not show in the projections.

September 1 Final...27-10 Utah.  Computer predicted a 28-point Ute victory.
September 10 Final USC 23 Utah 14...Computer predicted a 6-point Trojan win.
September 17 @ BYU...Utah loses by 1. (0)
October 1 Washington...Utah wins by 11. (+)
October 8 Arizona State...Utah wins by 3. (-)
October 15 @ Pittsburgh...Utah loses by 1. (0)
October 22 @ California...Utah loses by 3. (-)
October 29 Oregon State...Utah wins by 7. (+)
November 5 @ Arizona...Utah loses by 3. (-)
November 12 UCLA...Utah wins by 11. (+)
November 19 @ Washington State...Utah wins by 18. (+)
November 25 Colorado...Utah wins 16. (+)
Utah qualifies for the PAC-12 title game because USC is ineligible and because they will own a tie-breaker over Arizona State.
December 3 @ Oregon...Utah loses by 11. (-)
Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
December 28 v Maryland...Utah wins by 5. (-)
Utah finishes 8-6, 6-4 in conference play.

Conference Projection (Includes conf championship, but not the bowls)

North

1.  Stanford 12-1,  (Rose vs Oklahoma)
2. Oregon 10-2, 8-1 (Alamo vs. Texas)
3. California 9-3, 6-3 (Holiday vs. Texas Tech)
4. Washington 5-7, 3-6
5. Oregon State 3-9, 1-8
6. Washington State 2-10, 0-9

South

1. USC 11-1, 8-1 (Ineligible)
2. Utah (tie) 7-6, 6-4 (Sun vs. Maryland) (4th loss is conf championship)
2. Arizona State 9-3, 6-3 (Las Vegas vs. TCU)
4. Arizona 6-6, 4-5 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs. Fresno State)
5. UCLA 3-9, 2-7
6. Colorado 3-9, 1-8
Note: The PAC-12 will not have a team for the New Mexico Bowl. The bids goes to a WAC or MAC team instead.

Utah State

Utah State gained the most in their near upset of Auburn.  They are now projected to go bowling.

September 3 Final Auburn 41 Utah State 38...Computers predicted a 30 point Tiger victory.
September 10 Final Utah State 54 Weber 17...Computers projected a 9 point Aggie win.
September 24 Colorado State...USU wins by 5. (+)
September 30 @ BYU...USU loses by 18. (+)
October 8 Wyoming...USU wins by 6. (+)
October 15 @ Fresno State...USU loses by 8. (+)
October 22 Louisiana Tech...USU wins by 2. (++)
November 5 @ Hawaii...USU loses by 11. (+)
November 12 San Jose State...USU wins by 7. (+)
November 19 @ Idaho...USU wins by 4. (++)
November 26 Nevada...USU loses by 17. (+)
December 3 @ New Mexico State...USU wins by 11. (+)
Idaho Famous Potato Bowl, Boise, ID
December 17 vs. Central Michigan...USU loses by 2 (+++)

USU finishes 7-6, 4-3 in WAC play.

Conference Projection (Bowl and Opponent)
Nevada 9-3, 7-0 (Poinsettia vs. Air Force)
Hawaii 10-2, 6-1 (Hawaii vs Houston)
Fresno State 7-5, 5-2 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs. Arizona)
Utah State 7-5, 4-3 (Idaho Famous Potato vs. Central Michigan)
Louisiana Tech 5-7, 3-4 
Idaho 4-8, 2-5
San Jose State 1-11, 1-6
New Mexico State 1-11, 0-7

Weber State
Weber State beat the computer projection, but they lose ground on the rest of the conference.

September 3 Wyoming 35 Weber State 32...Computer predicted a 7 point Cowboy win.
September 10 Final Utah State 54 Weber 17...Computers projected a 9 point Aggie win.
September 17 Sacramento State...Weber wins by 1. (--)
September 24 @ Northern Colorado...Weber wins by 8. (+)
October 1 @ Eastern Washington...Weber loses by 11. (-)
October 15 Idaho State...Weber wins by 21. (+)
October 22 Southern Utah...Weber wins by 7. (+)
October 29 @ Montana...Weber loses by 8. (-)
November 5 Montana State...Weber loses by 5. (-)
November 12 Northern Arizona...Weber wins by 4. (-)
November 19 @ Portland State...Weber wins by 5. (-)

Weber finishes 6-5, 5-3 in conference play...Not quite good enough for the FCS playoffs

Conference Projection
1. Montana 10-1, 8-0
2. Eastern Washington 9-2, 7-1
3. Montana State 8-3, 6-2
4. Weber State 6-5, 5-3
5. Sacramento State 6-5,4-4
6. Northern Arizona 5-6, 3-5
7. Portland State 4-7, 2-6
8. Northern Colorado 3-8, 1-7
9. Idaho State 1-11, 0-8

Southern Utah

In week 1, SUU beat the computer projection, but they still lose ground.

September 3 Final South Dakota State 29 SUU 28...Computer predicted a 6 point Jackrabbit victory.
September 10 Final SUU 35 Sacramento State 14...Computer predicted a 3 point Hornet win.
September 17 UTSA...SUU wins by 15. (+)
September 24 @ UNLV...SUU loses by 8. (-)
October 1 North Dakota...SUU wins by 4. (-)
October 8 @ South Dakota...SUU wins by 1. (-)
October 15 @ Cal Poly...SUU loses by 2. (+)
October 29 UC Davis...SUU wins by 4. (+)
November 12 @ Northern Iowa...SUU loses by 13. (-)
November 19 Northern Arizona...SUU loses by 6. (-)

SUU finishes 4-7, 3-1 in conference play.

Conference Projection
1. Cal-Poly 6-5, 4-0
2. Southern Utah 4-7, 3-1
3. UC Davis 5-6, 2-2
4. North Dakota 6-5, 1-3
5. South Dakota 3-8, 0-4

BTW--BCS Bowl Pairings.
Rose...Stanford vs. Ohio State
Fiesta...Florida State vs Oregon
Sugar...LSU vs Boise State
Orange...Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
BCS Championship...Oklahoma vs. Alabama

Key
(+++) This is a new post-season game.
(++) Last projection had this game as a loss, now it is a win.
(+) Improved point spread
(0) No Change
(-) Worsened point spread
(--) Last project had this game as a win, now it is a loss.