This year, Wasatch Swagger is examining how well Sagarin is doing at predicting the winners for the 5 Utah College football teams. So far, the computer has predicted the victor in 9 of the 10 games. The only miscue was that Sagarin predicted a Hornet victory in last week's Sacramento State game vs Southern Utah. In the Ed Lamb era, people have been underestimating the Thunderbirds. The margin of victory has been off, however. BYU, Utah State and Southern Utah have been better than expected so far this year. Weber has seen mixed results against computer predictions. Utah has not lived up to expectations so far this year. Of course, we are all surprised by how well the Aggies have been so far this year.
Sagarin is one of the computer polls used by both the BCS and the FCS for playoff seeding.
Brigham Young.
BYU and Ole Miss finished exactly where predicted. No much changes on the projections for the Cougars.
September 3 Final BYU 14 Ole Miss 13...Computer predicted a 1 point Cougar victory.
September 10 Texas 17 BYU 16...Computer predicted an 8-point Longhorn victory.
September 17 Utah...BYU wins by 3. (+)
September 23 Central Florida...BYU wins by 3. (-)
September 30 Utah State...BYU wins by 13. (-)
October 8 San Jose State...BYU wins by 29. (0)
October 15 @ Oregon State...BYU wins by 21. (++)
October 22 Idaho State...BYU wins by 40. (-)
October 28 v TCU...BYU loses by 7. (+)
November 12 Idaho...BYU wins by 23. (-)
November 19 New Mexico State...BYU wins by 24. (-)
December 3 @ Hawaii...BYU wins by 6. (+)
Armed Forces Bowl, Dallas, TX
December 30 v Houston...BYU wins by 10. (+)
BYU finishes 11-2 (+).
FBS Independents.
1. BYU
2. Navy
3. Notre Dame
4. Army
Utah
Utes gain ground on the conference, but it does not show in the projections.
September 1 Final...27-10 Utah. Computer predicted a 28-point Ute victory.
September 10 Final USC 23 Utah 14...Computer predicted a 6-point Trojan win.
September 17 @ BYU...Utah loses by 3. (-)
October 1 Washington...Utah wins by 12. (+)
October 8 Arizona State...Utah wins by 5. (+)
October 15 @ Pittsburgh...Utah wins by 2. (++)
October 22 @ California...Utah loses by 1. (+)
October 29 Oregon State...Utah wins by 17. (+)
November 5 @ Arizona...Utah wins by 1. (++)
November 12 UCLA...Utah wins by 13. (+)
November 19 @ Washington State...Utah wins by 10. (-)
November 25 Colorado...Utah wins 16. (0)
Utah qualifies for the PAC-12 title game because USC is ineligible.
December 3 @ Stanford...Utah loses by 13. (0)
Holiday Bowl, San Diego, California
December 28 v Texas A&M...Utah wins by 1. (-)
Utah finishes 9-5, 7-3 in conference play, including the conference championship.
Conference Projection (Includes conf championship, but not the bowls)
North
1. Stanford 12-1, (Rose vs Ohio State)
2. Oregon 10-2, 8-1 (Fiesta vs. Oklahoma)
3. California 9-3, 6-3 (Alamo vs. Texas)
4. Washington 7-5, 4-5 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs. Fresno State)
5. Washington State 3-9, 1-8
6. Oregon State 2-10, 0-9
South
1. USC 11-1, 8-1 (Ineligible)
2. Utah (tie) 8-6, 7-3 (Holiday vs. Texas A&M) (3rd loss is conf championship)
2. Arizona State 9-3, 6-3 (Sun vs. Maryland)
4. Arizona 6-6, 4-5 (Las Vegas vs. TCU)
5. UCLA 3-9, 2-7
6. Colorado 3-9, 1-8
Note: The PAC-12 will not have a team for the New Mexico Bowl. The bids goes to a WAC or MAC team instead.
Utah State
Utah State gained the most in their near upset of Auburn. They are now projected to go bowling.
September 3 Final Auburn 41 Utah State 38...Computers predicted a 30 point Tiger victory.
September 10 Final Utah State 54 Weber 17...Computers projected a 9 point Aggie win.
September 24 Colorado State...USU wins by 12. (+)
September 30 @ BYU...USU loses by 13. (+)
October 8 Wyoming...USU wins by 11. (+)
October 15 @ Fresno State...USU loses by 2. (+)
October 22 Louisiana Tech...USU wins by 9. (+)
November 5 @ Hawaii...USU loses by 5. (+)
November 12 San Jose State...USU wins by 18. (+)
November 19 @ Idaho...USU wins by 6. (+)
November 26 Nevada...USU wins by 2. (++)
December 3 @ New Mexico State...USU wins by 10. (+)
Idaho Famous Potato Bowl, Boise, ID
December 17 vs. Ohio...USU wins by 1 (++)
USU finishes 10-3, 5-2 in WAC play.
Conference Projection (Bowl and Opponent)
1. Nevada 8-4, 6-1 (Poinsettia vs. Air Force) (Nevada beats Hawaii)
1. Hawaii 10-2, 6-1 (Hawaii vs Tulsa)
3. Utah State 8-4, 5-2 (Idaho Famous Potato vs. Ohio)
4. Fresno State 5-7, 4-3
5. Louisiana Tech 5-7, 3-4
6. Idaho 4-8, 2-5
7. New Mexico State 3-9, 1-6
8. San Jose State 1-11, 0-7
Weber State
Weber State beat the computer projection, but they lose ground on the rest of the conference.
September 3 Wyoming 35 Weber State 32...Computer predicted a 7 point Cowboy win.
September 10 Final Utah State 54 Weber 17...Computers projected a 9 point Aggie win.
September 17 Sacramento State...Weber wins by 6. (++)
September 24 @ Northern Colorado...Weber wins by 9. (+)
October 1 @ Eastern Washington...Weber loses by 9. (+)
October 15 Idaho State...Weber wins by 16. (-)
October 22 Southern Utah...Weber wins by 2. (-)
October 29 @ Montana...Weber loses by 10. (-)
November 5 Montana State...Weber loses by 2. (+)
November 12 Northern Arizona...Weber wins by 4. (0)
November 19 @ Portland State...Weber wins by 3. (-)
Weber finishes 6-5, 5-3 in conference play...Not quite good enough for the FCS playoffs
Conference Projection
1. Montana 10-1, 8-0
2. Eastern Washington 8-3, 7-1
3. Montana State 8-3, 6-2
4. Weber State 6-5, 5-3
5. Sacramento State 6-5,4-4
6. Northern Arizona 4-7, 3-5
7. Portland State 4-7, 2-6
8. Northern Colorado 3-8, 1-7
9. Idaho State 1-11, 0-8
Southern Utah
In week 1, SUU beat the computer projection, but they still lose ground.
September 3 Final South Dakota State 29 SUU 28...Computer predicted a 6 point Jackrabbit victory.
September 10 Final SUU 35 Sacramento State 14...Computer predicted a 3 point Hornet win.
September 17 UTSA...SUU wins by 18. (+)
September 24 @ UNLV...SUU loses by 1. (+)
October 1 North Dakota...SUU wins by 12. (+)
October 8 @ South Dakota...SUU loses by 2. (--)
October 15 @ Cal Poly...SUU wins by 1. (++)
October 29 UC Davis...SUU wins by 10. (+)
November 12 @ Northern Iowa...SUU loses by 11. (+)
November 19 Northern Arizona...SUU wins by 5. (++)
SUU finishes 6-5, 3-1 in conference play.
Conference Projection
1. South Dakota 8-3, 3-1
2. Southern Utah 6-5, 3-1
3. Cal Poly 5-6, 2-2
4. UC Davis 6-5, 1-3
5. North Dakota 3-8, 0-4
Key
(+++) This is a new post-season game.
(++) Last projection had this game as a loss, now it is a win.
(+) Improved point spread
(0) No Change
(-) Worsened point spread
(--) Last projection had this game as a win, now it is a loss.
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