Updated Bowl Prospects

Mountain West Conference

Bowl Commitments (5): Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico and Humanitarian.  Plus an outside chance at a BCS bowl.

How does the conference stack up?

Already Bowl Eligible 3:
TCU 7-0--Can they jump ahead of Boise State for the BCS bowl?
BYU 6-2--Likely Poinsettia. 
Utah 6-1--Likely Armed Forces but could be selected to the Las Vegas Bowl if TCU can get a BCS slot.

Remaining Teams:

Air Force
4-4
Likely Wins 3: @Colorado State, Army, UNLV
Likely Losses 1: @BYU
Projected Record: 7-5
Best Case Scenario: 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: Humanitarian

San Diego State
3-4
Projected Wins 3: New Mexico, @ UNLV, Wyoming
Projected Losses 2: TCU, @ Utah
Projected Record: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 7-5
Worst Case Scenario: 3-9
Projected Bowl: New Mexico

Wyoming:
3-4
Projected Wins: 1 @Colorado State
Projected Losses: 4 @Utah, BYU, TCU, @ San Diego State
Projected Record: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 3-9

Colorado State:
3-5
Projected Wins: 2 @UNLV, @New Mexico
Projected Losses: 2 Wyoming, Air Force
Projected Record 5-7
Their season hangs on them winnging the games they should.
 
UNLV
3-5
Projected Wins 0:
Projected Losses 4: @TCU, Colorado State, @ Air Force, San Diego State
Projected Record: 3-9
Best Case Scenario: 6-6



Eliminated from Bowl Contention 1:
New Mexico, 0-7

Bottom line for the Mountain West:  Thanks to Colorado State's swoon, the Mountain West risks not being able to fill all five bowl commitments even if TCU does not get into the BCS.  San Diego State and Ryan Lindley need to remain hot and they should finish 6-6.  They have no room for error  Wyoming has to win two games as the underdog to go bowling.  Colorado State may get there if they can stop the swoon, beat the cellar dwellers on the road and win one of their two reaming home games against either Air Force or Wyoming.

WAC
Bowl Commitments: Hawaii, New Mexico, Humanitarian.  Poinsettia if PAC-10 does not have enough bowl eligible teams.

Already Bowl Eligible: 2

-Boise State 7-0, Computers may put TCU ahead of Boise for the BCS slot even if the Broncos win out.
-Idaho 6-2 Should finish 8-4

Others

Nevada
4-3
Projected Wins 3: Hawaii, @San Jose State, @New Mexico State
Projected Losses 2: Fresno State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 7-5
Best Case Scenario: 9-3
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: New Mexico

Fresno State
4-3
Projected wins 5: @ New Mexico State, Utah State, @ Idaho, @ Nevada, Louisiana Tech, @Illinois
Projected losses: 0
Projected Record: 9-3
Worst Case Scenario: 7-5
Projected Bowl: Hawaii

Hawaii
2-5
Projected Wins 3: Utah State, New Mexico State, @ San Jose State
Projected Losses 3: @ Nevada, Navy, Wisconsin
Projected Record: 5-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-9

Louisiana Tech
3-4
Projected Wins 1: San Jose State
Projected Losses 4: @Idaho, Boise State, @LSU, @Fresno State
Projected Record: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 5-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8

New Mexico State
3-5
Projected Wins 0:
Projected Losses 4: @Ohio State, @Hawaii, Nevada, @San Jose State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 3-9
Best Case Scenario: 5-7

Utah State
2-5
Projected Wins 1: San Jose State
Projected Losses 4: @Fresno State, @Hawaii, Boise State, @ Idaho
Projected Record: 3-9
Worst Case Scenario: 2-10
Best Case Scenario: 4-8

San Jose State
1-5
Projected Wins 1: New Mexico State
Projected Losses 5: @ Boise State, Nevada, @Utah State, Hawaii, @ Louisiana Tech
Projected Record: 2-10
Worst Case Scenario: 1-11
Best Case Scenario: 3-9

WAC Bottom Line: The WAC will have four bowl eligible teams.  If Boise State fails to make a BCS bowl and TCU goes in their place, look for Nevada to take the place of a Mountain West Team in one of their slots--likely the Armed Forces.

Here is my latest guess for Western Bowl Slots

Fiesta: TCU vs USC
Las Vegas: Utah vs Stanford
Poinsettia: BYU vs Arizona State
Hawaii: Boise State vs SMU
New Mexico: San Diego State vs Fresno State
Humanitarian: Idaho vs Air Force
Armed Forces: Nevada vs Tulsa (Nevada filling the empty MWC bowl slot)