Meeting Commitments

Mountain West Conference

Has Five Bowl Commitments: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico and Humanitarian.  Plus an outside chance at a BCS bowl.

How does the conference stack up?

Already Bowl Eligible 2:
TCU 6-0--likely Las Vegas-Projected 12-0, no likely losses, Worst-case Scenario 10-2.  If they win out, the Frogs could move ahead of Boise State in the BCS rankings.
BYU 6-1--Likely Poinsettia-Projected 10-2, projected loss vs TCU, Worst-case Scenario 9-3.  If they win out and Boise State slips up, BYU could be back in the BCS discussion.

Remaining Teams:
Utah 5-1
Likely wins - 4: Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Diego State
Likely losses -2: @TCU, @BYU
Projected Record: 9-3
Best Case Scenario: 11-1
Worst Case Scenario 7-5
Projected Bowl: Armed Forces

Air Force
4-3
Likely Wins 2: Army, UNLV
Likely Losses 3: @Utah, @ Colorado State, @BYU
Projected Record: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: Humanitarian

Wyoming:
3-4
Projected Wins: 1 @San Diego State
Projected Losses: 4 @Utah, BYU, TCU, @ Colorado State
Projected Record: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 3-9

Colorado State:
3-4
Projected Wins: 5 San Diego State, Air Force, @UNLV, @New Mexico, Wyoming
Projected Losses: 0
Projected Record 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: New Mexico

San Diego State
2-4
Projected Wins 2: New Mexico, @ UNLV
Projected Losses: 4-@ Colorado State, TCU, Wyoming, @ Utah
Projected Record: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 2-10

UNLV
2-5
Projected Wins 1: New Mexico
Projected Losses 4: @TCU, Colorado State, @ Air Force, San Diego State
Projected Record: 3-9
Best Case Scenario: 6-6

New Mexico, 0-6--Must win out to be bowl eligible.  That would be quite some turn around, indeed.

Bottom line for the Mountain West.  Without a team in the BCS chase, the MWC should have little trouble getting all of their bowl commitments filled.  Air Force has no room for error.  It would be a bonus if either Wyoming or San Diego State could also break through and become bowl eligible. 

WAC
Bowl Commitments: Hawaii, New Mexico, Humanitarian.  Poinsettia if PAC-10 does not have enough bowl eligible teams.  BCS is a possibility.  

Already Bowl Eligible: 2

-Boise State 6-0 (No Projected Losses, Could slip below TCU if Frogs win @ BYU on Saturday) Projected Bowl: Fiesta
-Idaho 6-1 (Projected Losses, Fresno State, @ Boise State) should finish 9-3, Projected Bowl: Humanitarian

Others

Nevada
3-3
Projected Wins 3: Hawaii, @San Jose State, @New Mexico State
Projected Losses 3: Idaho, Fresno State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
Projected Bowl: New Mexico

Fresno State
3-3
Projected wins 6: @ New Mexico State, Utah State, @ Idaho, @ Nevada, Louisiana Tech, @Illinois
Projected losses: 0
Projected Record: 9-3
Worst Case Scenario: 7-5
Projected Bowl: Hawaii

Hawaii
2-4
Projected Wins 3: Utah State, New Mexico State, @ San Jose State
Projected Losses 4: Boise State, @ Nevada, Navy, Wisconsin
Projected Record: 5-8
Best Case Scenario: 7-6
Worst Case Scenario: 4-9

Louisiana Tech
3-3
Projected Wins 2: @Utah State, San Jose State
Projected Losses 4: @Idaho, Boise State, @LSU, @Fresno State
Projected Record: 5-7
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8

New Mexico State
3-4
Projected Wins 0:
Projected Losses 5: Fresno State, @Ohio State, @Hawaii, Nevada, @San Jose State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 3-9
Best Case Scenario: 5-7

Utah State
1-5
Projected Wins 1: San Jose State
Projected Losses 5: Louisiana Tech, @Fresno State, @Hawaii, Boise State, @ Idaho
Projected Record: 2-10
Worst Case Scenario: 1-11
Best Case Scenario: 4-8

San Jose State
1-5

Projected Wins 1: New Mexico State
Projected Losses 5: @ Boise State, Nevada, @Utah State, Hawaii, @ Louisiana Tech
Projected Record: 2-10
Worst Case Scenario: 1-11
Best Case Scenario: 3-9

Bottom line for the WAC: If Boise State gets to a BCS bowl, the conference will likely only have enough bowl eligible teams to fill their commitments.  Nevada has no room for error.  Hawaii has priority on the Hawaii bowl if they become bowl eligible, and that should put more pressure on Nevada as they could finish 6-6 and stay home in December should Hawaii pull a late-season upset.  If Hawaii does pull off that late-season upset and finish bowl eligible, then Hawaii would go to the Hawaii Bowl, Fresno State would get to the Humanitarian Bowl leaving Idaho in the New Mexico Bowl and Nevada would be left at home or hoping that another conference can not fulfill it's commitments.  Only one PAC-10 team has less than four wins right now, the Poinsettia Bowl does not seem realistic.

Projected Bowls involving Western Teams.

Las Vegas Bowl: TCU vs Stanford
Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs UCLA
Armed Forces Bowl: Utah vs Tulsa
New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State vs Nevada
Humanitarian Bowl: Air Force vs. Idaho
Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs SMU
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State vs. Oregon (Holy rematch, Batman!)