Mountain West Conference
Bowl Commitments (5): Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico and Humanitarian. Plus an outside chance at a BCS bowl.
How does the conference stack up?
Already Bowl Eligible 3:
TCU 8-0--BCS likely if they win out. They are impressing the voters in all three human polls.
Utah 7-1--Likely Las Vegas Bowl if TCU can get a BCS slot.
BYU 6-2--Likely Poinsettia
Reason: Even if BYU wins out and also defeats Utah and TCU gets a BCS bowl, it sounds like the Las Vegas Bowl Committee as well as BYU players, coaches, administrators and fans would like a change of pace. For that reason, I think that it is unlikely to see BYU in a fifth consecutive Las Vegas Bowl. Utah is almost as close to Las Vegas as BYU and should help sell the game.
Remaining Teams:
Air Force
5-4
Likely Wins 2: Army, UNLV
Likely Losses 1: @BYU
Projected Record: 7-5
Best Case Scenario: 8-4
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: Armed Forces
San Diego State
4-4
Projected Wins 2: @ UNLV, Wyoming
Projected Losses 2: TCU, @ Utah
Projected Record: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 7-5
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
Projected Bowl: New Mexico
Wyoming:
4-4
Projected Wins: 1 @Colorado State
Projected Losses: 3 BYU, TCU, @ San Diego State
Projected Record: 5-4
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
Colorado State:
3-6
Projected Wins: 2 @UNLV, @New Mexico
Projected Losses: 1 Wyoming
Projected Record 5-7
Best-case Scenario: 6-6
Their season hangs on them wining the games they should. They still have a real shot at a bowl.
UNLV
3-6
Projected Wins 0:
Projected Losses 3: Colorado State, @ Air Force, San Diego State
Projected Record: 3-9
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Eliminated from Bowl Contention 1:
New Mexico, 0-8
Bottom line for the Mountain West: TCU goes to a BCS bowl there will likely be no MWC team to play in the Humanitarian Bowl. Wyoming will have to win a game as the underdog in order for this to happen. They could not get the job done in Salt Lake this last week. BYU comes to Laramie this week. It is also possible that Wyoming beats San Deigo State and then looses to Colorado State leaving the conference with only four bowl-eligible teams.
WAC
Bowl Commitments: Hawaii, New Mexico, Humanitarian. Poinsettia if PAC-10 does not have enough bowl eligible teams.
Already Bowl Eligible: 2
-Boise State 8-0 Both Boise State and TCU should get into a BCS bowl game as the SEC is the only automatic qualifying conference that seems to have more than one worthy team.
-Idaho 7-2 Should finish 8-4 and get to host the Humanitarian Bowl
Others
Nevada
5-3
Projected Wins 2: @San Jose State, @New Mexico State
Projected Losses 2: Fresno State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 7-5
Best Case Scenario: 9-3
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Bowl: New Mexico
Fresno State
5-3
Projected wins 4: @ Idaho, @ Nevada, Louisiana Tech, @Illinois
Projected losses: 0
Projected Record: 9-3
Worst Case Scenario: 7-5
Projected Bowl: Hawaii
Hawaii
2-6
Projected Wins 3: Utah State, New Mexico State, @ San Jose State
Projected Losses 2: Navy, Wisconsin
Projected Record: 5-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-9
Louisiana Tech
3-5
Projected Wins 1: San Jose State
Projected Losses 3: Boise State, @LSU, @Fresno State
Projected Record: 4-8
Best Case Scenario: 5-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8
New Mexico State
3-6
Projected Wins 0:
Projected Losses 4: @Hawaii, Nevada, @San Jose State, @ Boise State
Projected Record: 3-10
Best Case Scenario: 5-8
Utah State
2-6
Projected Wins 1: San Jose State
Projected Losses 3: @Hawaii, Boise State, @ Idaho
Projected Record: 3-9
Worst Case Scenario: 2-10
Best Case Scenario: 4-8
San Jose State
1-6
Projected Wins 1: New Mexico State
Projected Losses 4: Nevada, @Utah State, Hawaii, @ Louisiana Tech
Projected Record: 2-10
Worst Case Scenario: 1-11
Best Case Scenario: 3-9
WAC Bottom Line: The WAC will have four bowl eligible teams.
Here is my latest guess for Western Bowl Slots
Note: At this point, it seems likely that both TCU and Boise State will finish in the top five. As such, both should get at-large BCS bowl bids.
Fiesta: Boise State vs Penn State
Orange Bowl: TCU vs Georgia Tech
Las Vegas: Utah vs Oregon State
Poinsettia: BYU vs Arizona State
Hawaii: Fresno State vs SMU
New Mexico: San Diego State vs Nevada
Humanitarian: Idaho vs Northern Illinois (Fill in for MWC)
Armed Forces: Air Force vs Tulsa
Alternative Scenario for MWC:
Las Vegas--BYU
Poinsettia--San Diego State
Armed Forces--Utah
New Mexico--Air Force
Why? Why not reward the Aztecs with a Bowl in their home stadium if the finish bowl eligible. If the Las Vegas Bowl selects BYU, San Diego State would give the Poinsettia Bowl the best shot at a sold-out crowd.
Note: 3 WAC teams play 13 regular season games this year. Seems unlikely to make a difference for either.
FAQ: If both TCU and Boise finish unbeaten, could they meet in a BCS Bowl?
A: Unlikely. Each BCS bowl has a conference affiliation. In order for this to happen, a conference with a team in the BCS championship would not have an at-large team. USC will drop like a rock after the way that they lost to Oregon. So it is possible that the Fiesta Bowl will choose TCU and Boise State...however it would be risky to put two non-automatic qualifiers in the same bowl especially if one of those (TCU) has a reputation of fans that do not travel well. The big bowls will do all that they can to ensure a sell out, bi-partisan crowd.
Affiliations:
Rose: PAC-10 vs Big 10
Fiesta: Big XII vs PAC-10, if available
Sugar: SEC
Orange: ACC
Big East is an automatic qualifying conference, but does not have a formal BCS bowl affiliation.
Picks:
BSC Championship: Texas (Big 12) vs Alabama (SEC)
Rose: Oregon (Pac-10) vs Iowa (Big 10)
Fiesta: Penn State* (At-Large) vs Boise State* (At Large)
Sugar: Florida* (At-Large) vs Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: Georgia Tech (ACC) vs. TCU* (At-Large)
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