Utah State University Student Section

If Utah State were to host Grambling State University, would the student body show up in black face?  How about the student body dress as priest and nuns when Notre Dame comes to town.  Of course not.  But their actions at the first game of the season against Brigham Young rose to that level classlessness.


Utah State students, in the first game of the season against the Cougars dressed as missionaries and mocked Cougar Bradon Davies for his honor code violation last year.  The protest was at the level that the USU administration, including President Stan Albrecht felt an apology to the Provo campus was in order.


Tonight, the student section sat out for the first 3 minutes of the game, and then gave the team the silent treatment.  As a result, the Aggies usual home-court advantage was lost and the Aggies dropped a game to a good Denver team, who will be in the WAC next season.


The articles in the newspapers did not make mention of this, but one of the comments from the Deseret News read, as follows...


I sure am glad that section F and the Refraction made their point about the apology from Stan about the BYU game, that's definitely more important that helping out a young struggling team come out with energy. Kudos to all of you




The Aggies came out flat, and Denver jumped out to a 31-14 lead.  Energy from the student section could have helped USU avoid such a poor start.  But Stew Morrill, who has more class than most of the State of Utah all together, gave credit to Denver for their performance.


However, the Student Body, especially those who are in section F need to realize that they crossed the line twice this season.  Why?  Religion is personal.  You do not have to agree with another person's religious beliefs, but to mock people for their beliefs is over the line.  Especially when the majority of your fellow students adhere to the same belief system that you are mocking.  


I first met Stew Morrill in 1989.  I was a missionary in Missoula, Montana and he was the Head Basketball Coach at the University of Montana and a member of the Missoula Stake High Council.  Yes, Coach Morrill adheres to the same belief that the student body mocked on Opening Night.  He remains one of the most classy coaches in College Basketball to date and perhaps the best college-level coach in the History of Utah.    I do not know if he was offended by the actions of the students, but he would never say anything about it if he was.  But some of my friends who are USU boosters have expressed to me their embarrassment over the whole act.


Now, I know that many other student bodies around the west have performed a similar stunt.  San Diego State is particularly famous for making an art of it.  But that does not make it correct.  Students do not have an obligation to show up for games, it is secondary to their primary purpose at the university.  Their primary purpose is to earn a degree and prepare for a profession.  Part of that preparation includes learning how to work with other people.  In my profession, I have worked beside Agnostics, Atheists, Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus as well as Roman Catholics and Baptists.  I met all of these people here in the great state of Utah.  In the work place, you have to learn to get along.  You can not afford otherwise.  If that is all you learn from your time in college, you are better off than a lot of people in the world today.

What if the NFL playoffs were held today...November 29, 2011

NFC Playoff

Division leaders

East...Dallas
North...Green Bay
South...New Orleans
West...San Francisco

Wild Card...Chicago, Atlanta
Championship Home Game...Green Bay

Bracket

Chicago at Dallas winner to play at San Francisco
Atlanta at New Orleans winner to play at Green Bay

Tie Breakers...Atlanta, Chicago and Detroit have identical records.  Chicago and Detroit have split their regular season series.  Atlanta has a win over Detroit, but has lost to Chicago.  In head to head competition between the three team, Chicago is in because they have 2 wins and 1 loss against the other two.  Atlanta has the next best record with 1 win and 1 loss.  Detroit is out because they have 1 win and 2 losses in head to head match-ups between the three teams.

AFC Playoffs

Division leaders

East...New England
North...Baltimore
South...Houston
West...Oakland

Wild Card...Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
Championship Home Game...Baltimore

Bracket

Pittsburgh at Oakland winner to play at Baltimore
Baltimore at New England winner to play at Houston

Tie Breakers...New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Houston all have identical records.  Baltimore is the division leader because they have defeated the Steelers twice.  Baltimore get's home field because they defeated the Texans and because they have a perfect division record.  Houston has a better division record and has the 1st round bye over New England.

Saving the WAC...Props to the Bulldogs and Aggies

Boise State is in the Mountain West Conference.  Nevada, Hawaii and Fresno State are following the Broncos next season.  I bet no one would have guessed that the WAC will have a defending champion in 2012, but they do.  Congratulations to the 2011 WAC football champions...the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs.  And they will return in 2012 to defend their title.

Their biggest challenger win 2012 could be the surprise 2nd place team from 2011, the Utah State Aggies.  If the Northern Aggies beat the Southern Aggies on Saturday, the WAC will return their #1 and #2 from 2011 in 2012.  Who would have guessed that would happen?  Not only that, Boise State may not go to the Big East.  And if that happens, the WAC-Armageddon that people have predicted may not happen at all.

So, those who chose the post-season awards from the WAC have a choice.  Will it be Louisiana Tech's Sonny Dykes or Utah State's Gary Anderson?  Why not both?  I hear by lobby Karl Benson to have co-coaches of the year in the WAC this year!  If the WAC is still around as a football conference in 2014, a lot of the credit for that will belong to Dykes, Anderson and the programs they have built.

Too bad that Tech will have to put their 7-game winning streak on the line in the Poinsettia Bowl against Kellen Moore and Boise State.  But then again, why not put that that defense against the best?

Utah College Basketball Power Rankings...November 27, 20

Here is how Utah's college basketball teams stack up this week.

1. Weber State (4-0)...Last week, defeated Jacksonville State...On Tap, @Saint Mary's Monday, San Jose State Saturday.

2. BYU (3-2)...Last week, defeated Prairie View A&M and Nevada, lost to #11 Wisconsin...On tap, @ Northern Arizona Wednesday, Oregon Saturday.

3. Utah State (3-2)...Last week, lost @ Texas A& M Corpus Christi, defeated @ Idaho State...On tap, Denver Wednesday, @ Pacific Saturday.

4. Southern Utah (4-3)...Last week, defeated Southern Virginia, lost to Troy...On Tap, @ Oral Roberts Saturday.

5. Utah Valley (3-3)...Last week, lost @ Arkansas, lost @Oakland (MI)...On Tap, Northern Illinois Monday, @ Wyoming Wednesday, Haskell Friday.

6. Utah (1-5)...Last week, Lost vs Harvard, lost vs U Mass, lost vs UNC Ashville...On Tap, @ Fresno State Saturday.

MVP This Week:  BYU G Charles Abouo

What the experts say...

Sagarin ranks Utah's College teams...

1. BYU
2. Weber State
3. Utah State
4. Utah Valley
5. Southern Utah
6. Utah

Post Season for Utah's Football Teams...November 27.

BYU

The Cougars have accepted a invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl.  Here is an update on who their opponent could be.  Houston defeated Tulsa and will host Southern Mississippi for the Conference USA championship.  If the Bayou Cougars hold on, they will bust the BCS.  If the Eagles win, they will earn a spot in the Liberty Bowl.  If Houston earns a trip to the BCS, the Liberty Bowl has the freedom to pick whatever C-USA team they deem worthy.  Who BYU will play in Dallas depends on the outcome of the game in Houston on Saturday.

If Houston Wins...C-USA bowls

Sugar...Houston
Liberty...Tulsa
Hawaii...Southern Mississippi
Armed Forces...SMU
New Orleans...Marshall
Beef 'O' Brady's...someone else

If Southern Mississippi wins

Liberty...USM
Hawaii...Houston
Armed Forces...Tulsa
New Orleans...SMU
Beef 'O' Brady's...Marshall

Utah

The Utes lost to Colorado, but will get a nice bowl trip regardless.  The real controversy is that UCLA is likely to finish 6-7 and still get a chance to play in a bowl game.  I think that the NCAA should deny the waiver to the Bruins and let Air Force or someone else take that slot.  UCLA is applying for an exception because they are, in fact, eligible were it not for the PAC-12 championship.  Here is the likely PAC-12 scenario...

BCS Bowls

Championship...LSU vs Alabama
Rose...Oregon vs Michigan State
Sugar...Houston vs Michigan...but Boise State is more deserving
Orange...Virginia Tech vs Louisville
Fiesta...Oklahoma State vs Stanford

Assuming there is not a colossal upset in Eugene on Saturday.

Rose Bowl...Oregon
Fiesta...Stanford
Alamo...Washington
Holiday...California
Sun...Utah
Las Vegas...Arizona State
Kraft Fight Hunger...UCLA...if a waiver granted.  But I will argue that Air Force belongs here.
New Mexico...none...bid goes to the MAC.

Of note: Utah, Washington and California all have 7-5 records.  The Alamo bowl can select either team.  The Holiday bowl selects 1 of the 2 that the Alamo bowl does not select.  And the Sun bowl will get the remaining team.  I put this selection in place because if there were a tie breaker, it would belong to Washington and the second tie breaker belongs to California.  But, there are no tie breakers for second place.  I, personally, am hoping for the Holiday Bowl.  If UCLA happens to upset Oregon, the PAC-12 should still get 2 BCS selections.  If that happens, Utah could end up in the Las Vegas Bowl.  There is a lot left to be determined next week.

Utah State

Yes, the Aggies are bowl eligible.  This is the second time in history that all three FBS teams from the Beehive State will be bowl eligible.  The last time was 1993 when BYU went to the Holiday Bowl, Utah went to the Freedom Bowl and Utah State went to the Las Vegas Bowl.  BYU was the lone loser that season.  If Utah State wins next week, and BYU beats Hawaii, then the Aggies should be invited to the Hawaii Bowl.  Otherwise, it will likely be the Smurf Turf Bowl.  The only thing we know for certain is that Louisiana Tech is the WAC champion and will play in the Poinsettia Bowl

Expected WAC bowl games.

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Utah State
Idaho FP...Nevada

What the experts predict...

Will be updated on Monday.

Report on the Games November 27, 2011

Normally, I have this post earlier, but with a busy holiday weekend, I missed my usual deadline.  No regrets, however.  It was an enjoyable time by all.

Colorado 17 Utah 14

After spring practice this year, Utah coach Kyle Whittingham publicly expressed concern for his kicking game.  That self-fulfilling prophecy was fulfilled on Friday afternoon at Rice-Eccles Stadium where three missed field goals cost Utah a shot at Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game.  The Utes did not move the ball well in the first half, but the Buffaloes did and took a 14-0 lead into the locker room at halftime.  In the second half the tables were turned, but Coleman Peterson failed on a 26 yard attempt and a 48 yard attempt.  The latter attempt was in the final seconds of the game to force overtime.  Another Utah drive was stopped when Tauni Vakapuna laid the ball on the after a nice run.  Utah will next play in a to be determined later bowl game.  The Utes finish the regular season 7-5.

MVP: Jon Hayes

Utah State 21 Nevada 17

For the first time this season, Utah State took a slim lead into the 4th quarter and held on for a slim, 4-point victory for a win over Nevada to become bowl eligible for the first time since 1997.  The Aggies took their first lead of the game, and the final lead on the final play of the third quarter on a trick play double-pass where WR Stanley Morrison found Robert Turpin who scored the go-ahead touchdown.  With less than 6 minutes remaining in the game, Nevada's Tyler Lantrip fumbled at the Utah State 11 and preserved the victory for the Aggies.  The only disappointing thing was that only 15,784 fans turned out to witness the game.  The Aggies can finish the season tied for 2nd place in the conference with win over New Mexico State next weekend.

MVP: Adam Kennedy

BYU was off this weekend.  Weber State and Southern Utah are finished for the season.

The NBA Lockout Is Over...Now Back to Business

The NBA Lockout is over, and the Jazz only have 11 players under contract, assuming that Enes Kanter and Alec Burks sign contracts and do not hold out and also assuming that Mehmet Okur comes back.  Do the Jazz re-sign Andre and Ronnie Price?  Do they need those players?  Let's examine the situation.

Here is who the Jazz have under contract...

Point Guards

Devin Harris

Free Agents

Ronnie Price
Earl Watson

Shooting Guards

Raja Bell
Alec Burks
CJ Miles

Small Forwards

Gordon Hayward
Jeremy Evans

Free Agent

Andre Kirilenko

Power Forwards

Derrick Favors
Paul Milsap

Centers

Enes Kanter
Al Jefferson
Mehmet Okur

Free Agents

Kyrylo Fesenko
Francisco Elson

So the Jazz have 5 free agents and 3 roster slots to fill.

Here is what the Jazz need

Point guards...if there is a position on the team that you need 3 people under contract, it is point guard.  The Jazz definitely need to sign Watson and Price.  Both contributed quality time off the bench for the Jazz last season and would be reasonable signs with the new CBA and harder salary cap.


Shooting guards...the Jazz are fine here.  Three men in this position should be fine.

Small forwards...there are only 2 small forwards under contract, but CJ Miles can play both shooting guard and small forward.  The Jazz probably do not need to re-sign Andre Kirilenko.  And AK-47 is recovering from a concussion.  I wish him well, but my feeling is that he has played his last game in a Jazz uniform.  The luxury tax penalty is stiffer in the new CBA, and it is probable that the Jazz can no longer afford AK.

Power forwards...The Jazz only have 2 pure power forwards under contract, but all three centers under contract can play the position.  Mehmet Okur is probably more of a power forward than he is a center, at least offensively, and probably more productive playing in the high post than the low post.  Milsap may be traded because of his heavy contract...that is if anyone will take on his high contract.

Centers...The Jazz have 3 centers under contract, and all three can play power forward as well.  Likely, once Enes Kanter can play effectively, either Jefferson or Okur will play more power forward than center.  The Jazz have Fesenko and Watson as free agents.  I do not expect to see either one of them back in a Jazz uniform.

Implications of the new CBA...The Jazz may waive or trade some expensive players like Okur and Milsap and the last vestiges of the Williams and Boozer era may be gone before the shortened season tips off.  I am a fan of Milsap and admire his work ethic and hope that he can remain with the team, but understand what has to happen this offseason and the implications of the new CBA.  Perhaps the Jazz can re-work his contract.  If the Jazz need to let him go or trade him because of the new cap, I will him luck elsewhere.  Another player who could be off-loaded because of a heavy contract is Raja Bell.

The Jazz need most to get Price and Watson back under contract.  That should be their highest priority.  Favors needs good quality backups.  If not these two, the Jazz need someone to fill that role.  If the Jazz trade Milsap, getting some quality help at point guard should be a priority.

The Jazz may not look the same as we are used to, but that changed last year when Darren Williams was traded to New Jersey and Jerry Sloan retired.  But there is enough talent for the future.

With no trades and assuming the Jazz can sign Price and Watson and possibly Elson, here is the projected depth chart...

PG...Favors, Price, Watson
SG...Miles, Bell, Burks
SF...Hayward, Evans
PF...Milsap, Favors, Okur
C...Jefferson, Kanter, Elson

No Big East After All

BYU will not be joining the Big East after all. Here is why Independence has not been good for BYU.

Attendance at home games.

While it is too early to tell after only one season, the fans in the Provo area do not seem to approve of the level of competition BYU has scheduled in November.  Attendance at home games is down 5% over 2010 when arguably the level of competition is the same.  In 2011, the average November attendance is 57,000 with Idaho and New Mexico State.  In 2010 it was 60,000 with UNLV and New Mexico.  It was above 64,000 with Utah and Air Force in 2009.  In 2010, attendance was off 6.25% from 2009  The trend in November attendance in Provo is not good right now.

If this downward trend continues, BYU will be seeing increasingly sparse crowds in November.  And it will be more difficult than it is now for BYU to schedule quality November opponents.  Here is a strait-line projected attendance for LaVell Edwards Stadium in the future...

2009--64,300--Air Force and Utah
2010--60,000 down 6.25%--UNLV and New Mexico
2011--57,000 down 5.00%--Idaho and New Mexico State
2012--54,800 down 3.75%--Idaho and Hawaii
2013--53,200 down 2.50%--TBA
2014--52,500 down 1.25%--TBA
2015--51,800 down 1.25%--TBA

Now, I understand that most college programs in the country would be pleased with 51,800 people in the stands.  But that represents money that will go to the other team.  Total revenues will be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 200,000 to 400,000 per game.  Some of that is shared with the visiting team, making it less likely that another team will break their conference schedule in November.  In order for Independence to work, fans have to show up at games.  Ticket revenues need to remain strong.  So for the trend indicates that this will not be the case.

Scheduling.

BYU has their 2012 schedule lined up, although the dates are not firm.  Fans used to seeing decent MWC competition in November...such as Colorado State, when they were good, Air Force, Rocky Long's New Mexico, and San Diego State will now have to suffer with the dregs of the lower conferences.  BYU's schedule will be front loaded with tough competition in September, and weak competition in November.  BYU's future Septembers feature Texas, West Virginia, Utah, Boise State and Houston.  Beyond 2013, BYU has nothing but Notre Dame scheduled in November, and that one game is in Indiana.  BYU fans will likely be able to look forward to more San Jose State, New Mexico State or even worse, some Sun Belt Conference and MAC in the future.  As of right now, BYU has no November games scheduled beyond 2012.

Something to play for.

Unless BYU is struggling with bowl eligibility or has a BCS possibility, games in November will be meaningless outside of a conference, other than just playing for experience.  If 2010 is an indication of the future, fans will not come and support a team struggling with bowl eligibility against weaker competition.  Fans want games in November that are meaningful and they want good competition.  In 2009, BYU had already been eliminated from MWC title contention by the time that Air Force came to town, but were still playing to get a better bowl game, and ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl when they could have wound up in the New Mexico Bowl.  This year, and in the next two years, BYU will know what bowl game they will attend as soon as they have 6 wins, unless they are unbeaten.


Bowl Games


With changes to the BCS pending, where only the #1 and #2 teams in the country will play in the BCS championship and the other bowls back to getting the best teams they can, it is a good argument that BYU will not need to be in a big conference to get to a big bowl game.  This means that seeing a better bowl game than the trio of games BYU has agreed to in independence seems unlikely.  Will an 11-1 BYU team replace the PAC-12 in the Rose Bowl if, say, Oregon gets to the BCS Championship as an independent?  Never  The Rose Bowl will simply pick the 2nd place PAC-12 team.  But without the Big East, BYU will likely never play in the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, even as a 12-0 team.  The Fiesta Bowl will remain only a slim possibility unless the Big 12 decides to make the Cotton Bowl their primary bowl game again.  The Big East will likely remain tied to the Florida Citrus Bowl, a game that the Cougars have been to twice.  In the Big East, the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl are possible and arguments for even for replacing the PAC-12 team in the Rose Bowl become stronger.


Rivaries


Let's face it.  The Holy War is dieing a slow death.  It does not mean as much as it used to.  Rivalries drive fans to a game in November, even in losing seasons.  Who will be BYU's big rival if they are independent?


My Conclusion.


True, the Big East is not the perfect situation for BYU, but it is better than what they had and better than independence.  In my opinion, BYU has put TV exposure over the things that make college football great.  There is no guarantee that the TV interest will be there in the future.  A conference will provide guaranteed exposure, even for a 4-8 team.  It was foolish for BYU to insist on so much and kill it's chances on improving their situation in football.

What if there was an FBS playoff...

This weekend, the lower Division 1 subdivision will kick off their playoffs.  What would a playoff in Division 1-A, or the Football Bowl Subdivision look like if held by the same rules?

Automatic Bids.

ACC--Virginia Tech
Big 12--Oklahoma State
Big East--Louisville
Big 10--Michigan State
Conference USA--Houston
MAC--Northern Illinois
MWC--TCU*
PAC-12--Stanford
SEC--LSU
Sun  Belt--Arkansas State*
WAC--Louisiana Tech

*Teams that have already cliched their conference championship

Seedings...

1.  LOUISIANA STATE
2.  Alabama
3.  Arkansas
4.  OKLAHOMA STATE
5.  VIRGINIA TECH
6.  STANFORD
7.  Boise State
8.  HOUSTON
9.  Oklahoma
10. Oregon
11. Kansas State
12. South Carolina
13. Georgia
14. MICHIGAN STATE
15. Baylor
16. Clemson
17. TEXAS CHRISTIAN
18. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
19. LOUISIANA TECH
20. ARKANSAS STATE

First Round Games

Game 1

Arkansas State at Georgia

Game 2

Louisiana Tech at Michigan State

Game 3

Northern Illinois at Baylor

Game 4

TCU at Clemson

Second Round

Game 4 winner at 1. LSU
9. Oklahoma at 8. Houston

Game 1 winner at 4. Oklahoma State
12. South Carolina at 5. Virginia Tech

Game 2 winner at 3. Arkansas
11. Kansas State at 6. Stanford

Game 3 winner at 2. Alabama
10. Oregon at 7. Boise State

Last 4 in...South Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Clemson
First 4 out...Michigan, Penn State, Nebraska, Notre Dame
Next 4 out...Georgia Tech, Auburn, Texas, Virginia

What if the NFL Playoffs Were Held Today? November 22, 2011

Of course, this is not unique to this blog at this time of year.  If a major virus hit the country today, here is the NFL playoff picture.

NFC

East--Dallas
North--Green Bay
South--New Orleans
West--San Francisco

Wild Card--Chicago, Detroit
NFC Home Field--Green Bay

Brackets

Chicago at Dallas winner to play at Green Bay
Detroit at New Orleans winner to play at San Francisco

Championship game home field...Green Bay

Tie Breakers:
Dallas and New York have yet to meet in the regular season.  Dallas has the better division record.
Detroit and Chicago have split their regular season series.  Chicago has the better division record.  Both are Wildcard teams, but Chicago will play the division champion with the weaker record.

AFC

East--New England
North--Pittsburgh
South--Houston
West--Oakland

Wild Card--Baltimore, Cincinnati

Brackets

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh winner to play at New England
Baltimore at Oakland winner to play at Houston

Championship game home field...Houston

Tie Breakers

Pittsburgh has won both regular season games against Baltimore.  Pittsburgh is the division champion.
Houston, Pittsburgh and New England have identical records.  Houston will not play either Pittsburgh or New England.  New England defeated the Steelers, therefore, Pittsburgh will not get the first round bye.  Houston and New England have identical conference records.  Houston has the better division record.

Post Season for Utah's College Football Teams...

I love it...Utah State fans are going to have to root for BYU!  I'll explain later...keep reading.

Update November 21.

BYU...

Armed Forces Bowl Bid accepted.  BYU sits at 7-3 with a game at Hawaii remaining.  This game means more to Utah State fans than it does to BYU fans, but I will explain later.  BYU's opponent will depend on whether or not Houston holds on and earns a BCS bid.  Let's look at Conference-USA's bowl situation.

Houston and Tulsa play Saturday and the C-USA championship game will be the following week between the winner of this game and Southern Mississippi.  C-USA will likely have 5 bowl eligible teams, and maybe 6 and has 5 bowl slots.  The champion goes to the Liberty Bowl, Second place goes to Hawaii, Third place to the Armed Forces Bowl, Fourth place to New Orleans and Fifth place to the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in Tampa.  If Houston holds out, they will go to a BCS bowl.  Here is how you will likely see it shake down if Houston wins out.

BCS--Houston
Liberty--Southern Mississippi
Hawaii--Tulsa
Armed Forces--Southern Methodist
New Orleans--Marshall/East Carolina winner
Beef 'O' Brady's--UTEP if they beat UCF.

If Houston loses either week.

Liberty--Tulsa or Southern Mississippi
Hawaii--Tulsa or Southern Mississippi or Houston
Armed Forces--Tulsa or Houston
New Orleans--SMU
Beef 'O' Brady--Marshall/East Carolina/UTEP  

Perhaps BYU fans will cheer for the other Cougars so that they do not have to play them.

Utah

If I read the BCS correctly, this is where BCS teams will land in the BCS bowls.

BCS National Championship--LSU vs. Alabama
Rose--Oregon vs. Michigan State
Fiesta--Oklahoma vs. Stanford
Sugar--Boise State vs. Houston
Orange--Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati

But I am not reading the BCS correctly...read what the experts are saying down below...

I put Oregon and Stanford in the BCS because Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play each other and someone has to lose.  Same for LSU and Arkansas.  The SEC will be 1,2 and 3 for only one week. 

Here is, therefore, how the PAC-12 bowl picture looks.

Rose--Stanford
Fiesta--Oregon
Alamo--Arizona State
Holiday--Utah
Sun--Washington
Las Vegas--UCLA
Kraft Fight Hunger--California
New Mexico--No PAC-12 team eligible...The MAC supplies an alternate.

Utah State

Louisiana Tech won the WAC championship and will likely play in the Poinsettia Bowl.  This is not really good news for the Aggies, who need to win one of their last two to become bowl eligible.  But there was good news last night for USU and that is that Fresno State lost to Hawaii.  The Warriors have to win out to become bowl eligible.  Hawaii finishes out at home against Tulane and BYU.  If Hawaii beats hapless Tulane, USU fans may find themselves in an awkward position...having to hope for a BYU victory to get to a bowl game.

I know Aggie fans very well.  I have many cousins that have Utah State degrees.  They don't just love watching BYU lose.  The really looooove watching BYU lose.  For some Aggie fans, a BYU loss is the third best feeling in the world.  It will be really hard for them to cheer on the Cougars against Hawaii, but it may be necessary.  But first, the Aggies need to surprise the Wolfpack and down the other Aggies.  Then cheer for the Cougars.  If USU can beat both Nevada and New Mexico State, the Aggies could say Aloha.  And the Wolfpack will be digging for spuds.

Personally, Hawaii is in a funk, but they can pull out of it against the Cougars.  They have done so before.  BYU has little to play for, and Hawaii's season is on the line.  But they are in such a bad funk that they may lose to hapless Tulane and the BYU game will become 'Hawaii's Bowl Game'.

If USU wins out and Hawaii loses to BYU.

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Utah State
Idaho Famous Potato...Nevada

If USU loses one of the two, and Hawaii does not win out...

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Nevada
Idaho Famous Potato...Utah State

If USU loses both...

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Nevada
Idaho Famous Potato...someone else.

Now, if Hawaii wins out...they will go to the Hawaii Bowl even though Utah State beat them in Hawaii.  That is the deal that Hawaii has with this game.  And if USU beats Nevada, they may both end up 7-5 and the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl committee would have a choice on who to select as there are no tie breakers for 2nd place.  Do they chose the team that would be thrilled to go there or the team that they know will sell tickets?  USU should not leave that to chance.  But if they lose to Nevada, they could find themselves bowl eligible and staying home.

If Hawaii wins out...No matter what USU's record is....

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Hawaii
Idaho Famous Potato...Nevada

USU...stays home or goes somewhere else...but

Miami has decided not to go to a bowl game and Army is not bowl eligible.  This means that the Kraft Fight Hunger bowl is looking for a team.  Nevada may fit their requirement.  You may see this WAC bowl arrangement.

Poinsettia...La Tech
Hawaii...Hawaii
Idaho Famous Potato...Utah State
KFH...Nevada

The WAC is an alternate to the MWC to the New Mexico Bowl, but the MWC will likely have all of their bowls slots filled.  But another thing that Utah State can hope for is that Colorado State beats Air Force.

BCS--Boise State
Las Vegas--TCU
Poinsettia--San Diego State
Independence--Wyoming
New Mexico--Air Force

What the experts say...

ESPN's Bowl Bound has Utah State in the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl taking on Ohio and Nevada in the Hawaii bowl. They also have Utah in the Holiday bowl taking on Missouri.  They have Tulsa as BYU's Armed Forces Bowl opponent.  They also have #15 in the BCS Michigan in the Sugar Bowl ahead of #7 Boise State.

CBS's Jerry Palm has Wyoming in the Hawaii Bowl and Utah State staying home during the bowl season.  He has Utah in the Alamo Bowl taking on Oklahoma.  SMU as BYU's Armed Forces Bowl Opponent.  He has Louisville in the Orange Bowl and Michigan over Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.

Remember, these guys get paid to make these predictions, where I do not.

Report on the Games,,,November 19, 2011

Everyone was a winner this weekend.

Utah 30 Washington State 27

The Utes let a 10 point lead slip away, but in overtime, the Ute defense held.  Washington State had the ball first, but Mo Lee intercepted Connor Halliday after the Cougars lose yards on penalties.  Coleman Peterson hit a 38-yard FG to end the game.  Utah escapes with a narrow 3-point victory over Washington State on the road.  Again, John White IV runs over the defense and carries the team with 186 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Utah hosts Colorado next week to wrap up conference play.

MVP: RB John White IV

Utah can still play in the PAC-12 championship game...more on that in a later post.

BYU 42 New Mexico State 7

On Senior Day in Provo, the defense came up big for the Cougars.  It was a bend but don't break situation in the first half, as NMSU out-gained BYU, but the Cougars had a 21-7 lead.  It was all Jake Heaps and BYU in the second half.  The Aggies got their only score after a Heaps interception gave them a short field.  NMSU could not drive the full length of the field and score.

MVP: QB Jake Heaps

Utah State 49 Idaho 42

In a half-full Kibbie Dome, the Idaho Vandals were unable to score in the second overtime period and USU wins a wild one in Moscow.  The game was tied at the end of the third quarter.  If you are keeping score, the Aggies are 2-5 when leading at the end of 3, 2-0 when trailing at the end of 3 and 1-0 when the score is tied at the end of the third frame.  USU evens their record at 5-5 and need to win only 1 more game to become bowl eligible.  They host Nevada next week and finish a week later @ New Mexico State.

More on USU's bowl possibilities in a later post.

MVP: RB Robert Turpin

Weber State 48 Portland State 33

WSU erupted for 21 4th quarter points to send Coach Ron McBride into retirement as a victor in his last game.  PSU was unable to move the ball at critical points as the game ran down and and suffered defensive breakdowns that led to 2 late Wildcat scores.  CJ Tucket had another monster game running the football.  WSU finishes the season 5-6 and will not lace up the cleats again until next season's opener at Fresno State.

MVP: RB CJ Tucket

Southern Utah 27 Northern Arizona 24

The Thuderbirds scored 17 unanswered points in the second half and held on to a close victory in Flagstaff at Northern Arizona in a preview of what will become a new season ending rivalry for both Painted Desert schools.  Brad Sorensen pitched 2 touchdown passes and Austin Minifee ran for 96 yards.  SUU finishes 2011 above .500 at 6-5.  We will next see Southern Utah in action as they open 2012 at Utah State in Logan.

MVP: WR Jared Ursua

Utah Basketball Power Rankings...November 20, 2011

Another week of college basketball down, a lot more left.  NBA lockout?  What NBA lockout?

1.  Weber State (3-0)...Beat Utah State, won @ UC Irvine...Up next...does not play this week.  Next game is 11/27 at the St. Mary's tourney vs. Jacksonville State.  Enjoy the turkey, guys.

2.  Utah State (2-1)...Lost @ Weber State, beat Southern Utah...Up Next...@ Texas A&M Corpus Christi Tuesday, @ Idaho State Saturday...Got to credit Stew for taking road games few would dare to.

3.  BYU (2-1)...Beat BYU-Hawaii, Beat Longwood...Up Next...Prairie View A&M Tuesday, vs. Nevada Friday in Chicago at the Chicago Invitational, vs either Wisconsin or Bradley on Saturday...Cougars did not play the toughest of competition this week.

4.  Southern Utah (3-1)...Beat Montana State-Billings, lost to Utah State...Up Next...Southern Virginia (AKA BYU East...an NAIA school) Tuesday, Troy Saturday...T-Birds came oh so close to a win in Logan.  They are better than I thought.

5.  Utah Valley (3-1)...Lost @Houston, defeated Grambling State, defeated Missouri-Kansas City...Up Next...@Arkansas Tuesday, @ Oakland (Michigan) Friday...I have been a little impressed with the Wolverines this week.

6.  Utah (1-2)...Defeated San Diego Christian, lost @ Boise State, lost vs. Montana State...Up Next...The Battle 4 Atlantis Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Begin vs. Harvard Thursday, UMass or Florida State Friday...It is that bad on the hill.

MVP this week: Weber State G Scott Bamforth

Saving The WAC...A New Conference?

I have seen rumors, but I have not been able to confirm them that a new conference will form out of the ashes of the WAC once the move of Utah State and San Jose State to the Mountain West as replacements from Air Force and Boise State are official.  The plan is for the five remaining football members of the WAC to invite schools from the Big Sky and possibly Southland Conference that are ready to compete at the next level and form a new football conference.

Again, I have not been able to confirm this other than seeing twitter reports stating that Idaho is ready to "euthanize the WAC" and move on.  And that the Big Sky Conference is "preparing for D-IA defections."

However, the "euthanize the WAC" comment may refer to a push by Idaho to be included in the MWC.

Those are rather cryptic twitter posts and may mean nothing...after all, they come from twitter.  But if this is true, here is the conference I see moving forward...


UC Davis
Idaho
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
Montana
Montana State
Texas State
Texas San Antonio
Sacramento State

Let me emphasize, this is not teams being invited to the WAC...this would be a new conference.  I would be certain, if this is true, that UC Davis and Sac State would defiantly be involved.  I am not certain about Montana and Montana State who seem content with the FCS.   Other schools that could be involved instead include; SF Austin, Sam Houston State, Weber State, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona.

Stay tuned...

BYU to the Big East Rumored to be Official

I came back from lunch and saw dozens of tweets on my twitter account that report the following...

It appears to be official that Air Force, Boise State, Navy and BYU will join the Big East as football-only members.  Houston, UCF and SMU will join the Big East in all sports.  It is unclear whether this will happen in 2013 or 2014 after West Virginia, Pittsburgh and Syracuse leave.  The Big East will break into East/West Divisions and have a conference championship game.  The official announcement is expected soon.

It is assumed that BYU's other sports will remain in the West Coast Conference.  It is also assumed that Navy's non-football sports will remain in the Patriot League.  We do not yet know where Boise State and Air Force will put their non-football sports.  Boise State is rumored to either rejoin the WAC or rejoin the Big West.  Air Force is rumored to either rejoin the WAC or join the Missouri Valley Conference.  The Big East may go to 14 schools for football if they can convince Army to join her sister academies.

It is the Salt Lake Tribune that is breaking this news.

Looks like the new BYU/Boise State rivalry will be something to look forward to.

The divisions will likely be thus.

Western division

Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Central Florida
Houston
Southern Methodist

Eastern Division

Connecticut
Cincinnati
Louisville
Navy
Rutgers
South Florida

There will be a scheduling arrangement so that USF and UCF play every season and Air Force and Navy play every season.  Reason for UCF being in the west...neither Cincy nor Louisville want to be west.

Does this look like a BCS conference?  In the past 4 years, the only BCS team that people have questioned is UConn.  Cincy, Boise State, and Houston (likely this season) have legitimately earned BCS bids.

Update...

Washington Examiner is reporting that the invitation has been extended, but the BYU Board of Trustees has yet to approve the move.  They meet on Thursdays.

Sources...
http://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2011/11/15/2564587/big-east-expansion-byu-possibly-on-board-speculation-on-possible
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/cougars/52922957-88/football-byu-east-conference.html.csp

What if the FBS Had a Playoff

In the Football Championship Subdivision (D-IAA), there is a 20-team playoff.  Here is what a 20-team playoff would look like in the Football Bowl Subdivision (D-IA).

Automatic Bids...

ACC...Clemson
Big 12...Oklahoma State
Big East...Cincinnati
Big Ten...Michigan State
Conference-USA...Houston
MAC...Northern Illinois
Mountain West...Texas Christian
PAC-12...Oregon
SEC...Louisiana State
Sun  Belt...Arkansas State
WAC...Nevada

Seedings

1.  LOUISIANA STATE
2.  OKLAHOMA STATE
3.  Alabama
4.  OREGON
5.  Oklahoma
6.  Arkansas
7.  CLEMSON
8.  Virginia Tech
9.  Stanford
10. Boise State
11. HOUSTON
12. South Carolina
13. Kansas State
14. MICHIGAN STATE
15. Georgia
16. TEXAS CHRISTIAN
17. CINCINNATI
18. NEVADA
19. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
20. ARKANSAS STATE

First Round Games (Saturday, December 10)

Game 1
20. Arkansas State at 13. Kansas State

Game 2
19. Northern Illinois at 14. Michigan State

Game 3
18. Nevada at 15. Georgia

Game 4
17. Cincinnati at 16. TCU

Second Round (Thursday December 15 to Saturday December 17)

Game 4 winner at 1. LSU (Saturday)
9. Stanford at 8. Virginia Tech (Thursday)
Winners Play Friday December 23 in Arlington, Texas

Game 1 winner at 4. Oregon (Saturday)
12. South Carolina at 5. Oklahoma (Friday)
Winners Play Saturday December 24 in San Diego, California

Game 2 winner at 3. Alabama (Saturday)
11. Houston at 6. Arkansas (Thursday)
Winners Play Friday December 23 in Detroit, Michigan

Game 3 winner at 2. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
10. Boise State at 7. Clemson (Friday)
Winners Play Saturday December 24 in Miami Gardens, Florida

Quarter Final Round (Friday December 23 and Saturday December 24)
Friday Sites...Arlington and Detroit
Saturday Sites...Miami and San Diego

Semi Final Round (Saturday December 31)
Sites Pasadena, California (Winners of the Friday games) and Glendale, Arizona (Saturday games)

Championship
Saturday, January 7, 2012 New Orleans, Louisiana

Last 4 in...Georgia, Kansas State, South Carolina, Boise State
First 4 out...Nebraska, Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Southern Mississippi
Next 4 out...Penn State, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame

This also means that 10 current bowl games would be discontinued...GoDaddy.com, BBVA Compass, Ticket City, Kraft Fight Hunger, Pinstripe, Military, New Mexico, Idaho Famous Potato, New Orleans, and Beef 'o' Brady's.

What if the NFL Playoffs Were Held Today...November 15, 2011

NFC Playoffs

Division Champions
East...New York
North...Green Bay
South...New Orleans
West...San Francisco

Wild Card...Chicago, Detroit.

NFC Championship Home Field...Green Bay

Brackets...Chicago at New York winner to play at Green Bay
Detroit at New Orleans winner to play at San Francisco

Tie Breaker...Chicago and Detroit have the same record and split their season series.  Chicago has the better division record and plays their opening round game against the division champion with the worst record.

AFC Playoffs

Division Champions
East...New England
North...Pittsburgh
South...Houston
West...Oakland

Wild Card...Baltimore, Cincinnati

AFC Championship Home Field...Houston

Brackets...Baltimore at Oakland winner to play at Houston
Cincinnati at New England winner to play at Pittsburgh

Tie Breakers...Houston and Pittsburgh have an identical records and do not play each other this season.  Houston, as of today, has the better division record.  Cincinnati and Baltimore have identical records and have not yet played each other.  Baltimore has the better division record and plays the division champion with the worst record.

NBA Lockout Continues.

The players have rejected the owners latest proposal.  There is a move to disband the players union.  Looks like the 2011-12 season will be a complete wash. 

I suspect that in the end the deal that the players actually sign will be worse.  That some players will regret not accepting this deal.

Some owners may also regret not pushing for a solution to the problem as TV deals are renegotiated and some fans fail to return.

One Week to FCS Playoffs, Where We Now Stand.

How do the FCS Playoffs look now that there is a week left in the season?  Here is my preview.

Automatic Bids

Big Sky--Montana State
Big South--Stony Brook
CAA--Maine
MEAC--Norfolk State*
Missouri Valley--North Dakota State
NEC--Albany
Ohio Valley--Tennessee Tech
Patriot--Lehigh*
Southern--Georgia Southern*
Southland--Sam Houston State*
*These teams have already won their conference championship and have the automatic bid all sewn up.

Seedings

1. NORTH DAKOTA STATE (MVFC)
2. MONTANA STATE (Big Sky)
3. SAM HOUSTON STATE (Southland)
4. GEORGIA SOUTHERN (SoCon)
5. Northern Iowa (MVFC)
6. LEHIGH (Patriot)
7. New Hampshire (CAA)
8. Montana (Big Sky)
9. Wofford (SoCon)
10. Appalachian State (SoCon)
11. Old Dominion (CAA)
12. Towson (CAA)
13. MAINE (CAA)
14. Illinois State (MVFC)
15. STONY BROOK (Big South)
16. Delaware (CAA)
17. Liberty (Big South)
18. TENNESSEE TECH (OVC)
19. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
20. ALBANY (NEC)

First Round Games...
Game 1...Albany at Maine
Game 2...Norfolk State at Illinois State
Game 3...Tennessee Tech at Stony Brook
Game 4...Liberty at Delware

Second Round Games

Game 4 winner at 1. North Dakota State
9. Wofford at 8. Montana

Game 1 winner at 4. Georgia Southern
12. Towson at 5. Northern Iowa

Game 2 winner at 3. Sam Houston State
11. Old Dominion at 6. Lehigh

Game 3 winner at 2. Montana State
10. Appalachian State at 7. New Hampshire

Last 4 in...Liberty, Delaware, Illinois State, Towson

First 4 out...Furman, Central Arkansas, Jackson State, Alabama State
Next 4 out...Eastern Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Portland State, North Dakota

How Utah's Basketball Teams Rank...Nov 13

Now that we have people play games, here is how they stack up...

1.  Utah State (1-0) Defeated BYU...On tap @Weber State Tuesday, vs. Southern Utah Saturday

2.  Weber State (1-0) Defeated Northern New Mexico...On tap Utah State Tuesday, @ UC Irvine Saturday

3.  Brigham Young (0-1) Lost @ Utah State...On tap BYU-Hawaii Tuesday, Longwood Friday

4.  Southern Utah (2-1) Defeated UC Davis, Lost @ San Diego State, Defeated Bryant...On tap Montana State Billings Thursday, @ Utah State Saturday

5.  Utah (0-0) DNP...On Tap San Diego Christian Monday, @ Boise State Wednesday, Montana State Saturday

6.  Utah Valley (1-0) Defeated Simpson...On tap @ Houston Monday, Grambling State Wednesday, Missouri Kansas City Saturday

Player of the Week: Weber State G Damien Lillard with 25 points.

Conference Report

PAC-12
UCLA and ASU forget their skates.

Game of the week: Washington State stuns Arizona State 37-27
(Yes, that was the best game.)
Utah skates past UCLA 31-6
Colorado runs past Arizona 48-29
Oregon surprises Stanford 53-30
California all over Oregon State 23-6
USC tromps Washington 40-17

MVP: Washington State QB Connor Halliday

Independents

Game of the Week: Navy sinks SMU 24-17
BYU cruises past Idaho 42-7
Army tripped by Rutgers 27-12
Notre Dame trips Maryland 45-21

MVP: Notre Dame RB Jonas Gray

WAC

Game of the Week: New Mexico State stuns Fresno State 48-45
Utah State outduels San Jose State 34-33
Louisiana Tech sinks Ole Miss 27-7
Nevada shoots down Hawaii 42-28
Idaho bows to BYU 42-7

MVP: New Mexico State QB Matt Christien

Big Sky

Game of the Week: Weber State stuns Northern Arizona 34-31
Eastern Washington outduels Cal Poly 53-51 in 3OT
Sacramento State stomps Idaho State 24-9
Portland State outruns Northern Colorado 24-17

MVP: Weber State RB CJ Tuckett

Big West

Game of the Week: Eastern Washington outduels Cal Poly 53-51 in 3OT
Southern Utah trips at Northern Iowa 34-21
North Dakota slips past UC Davis 14-7
Sout Dakota blows out Missouri S&T 48-14

MVP: Cal Poly RB Jake Romanelli

Post Season Possibilities for Utah Schools

BYU

BYU has the Armed Forces Bowl bid locked up.  At this point it looks like their opponent will be SMU.  Why?  The Mustangs are now in 4th in C-USA, but Houston could be BCS bound.  That would put Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl, Southern Mississippi in the Hawaii Bowl and leave SMU for the Armed Forces Bowl.  If Houston does not earn a BCS bid, then BYU's opponent appears to be Southern Mississippi.

Utah

The Utes are bowl eligible for the 9th consecutive season.  The last time Utah failed to make a bowl game was 2002.  But let's examine were they will go.

Here is the current BCS picture.  I will update this post when the BCS standings are released, but I imagine that Stanford and Boise State will not be in the BCS any longer.

BCS Championship...LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl...Oregon vs. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl...Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl...Alabama vs. Houston
Orange Bowl...Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Pac-12 Bowl Picture

BCS (Rose Bowl)...Oregon vs. Michigan State
Alamo Bowl...Stanford vs. Baylor
Holiday Bowl...Arizona State vs. Texas
Sun Bowl...Washington vs. Georgia Tech
Las Vegas Bowl...Utah vs. TCU
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl...California vs. Miami (FL)
New Mexico Bowl...UCLA* vs. San Diego State

*UCLA is yet bowl eligible.

UCLA is currently 5-5 with Colorado and USC remaining.

USC, Arizona, Colorado and Washington State are no longer bowl eligible.

Can Utah still play in the Rose Bowl?  It is not impossible.  Arizona State, which has dropped their last two games, would have to lose both of their remaining games and Utah would have to win both of their remaining games.  The way ASU played against Washington State, that is not too far fetched.  Then Utah would have to beat, presumably Oregon, on the road in the PAC-12 championship game.  That would be, at this point, an epic upset.

Utah State/WAC Bowl Picture

Nevada appears to be the WAC champion, but can wrap the championship up if they defeat Louisiana Tech in Reno next week.  You should expect to see the Wolfpack in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Louisiana Tech is now bowl eligible.  They will go to the Idaho Famous Potato bowl unless there is another eligible team from the WAC.  If there are only 3 bowl eligible teams from the WAC, La Tech will be obligated to go to Boise.  If not, they may get to go to a bowl game closer to Rushton.  Why? Look at the Conference USA Bowl Picture.  It will be all messed up if Houston gets to the BCS.  Then C-USA will have only 3 or 4 bowl eligible teams and 6 bowl slots.  I think that Louisiana Tech would rather go to New Orleans Bowl if that option is open to them.  And if C-USA can't fill that slot, the New Orleans Bowl would probably prefer La Tech as a substitute.  But if La Tech beats Nevada and wins the WAC, I'm sure that they would be just fine going to San Diego and the Poinsettia Bowl.

Utah State is now 4-5 and needs to win 2 out of the last 3 to be bowl eligible.  They have @ Idaho, Nevada and @ New Mexico State left.

New Mexico State can still become bowl eligible, but they have @ BYU, @ La Tech and Utah State left.

Fresno State, San Jose State and Idaho can no longer become bowl eligible.

Here is how I think things will work out...

Poinsettia Bowl...Nevada vs. Boise State
Hawaii Bowl...Hawaii vs. Southern Mississippi
Idaho Famous Potato Bowl...Utah State vs. Ohio
New Orleans Bowl...Louisiana Tech vs. Temple

Utah State needs to win 2 of their remaining three to be bowl eligible.  Sagarin has USU a 10 point favorite over Idaho on the road.  They are very slim favorite over Nevada at home...1/4 of a point.  And they are a 9 point favorite over New Mexico State on the road.  They can win all three of their remaining games.

For Conference-USA...For Reference.  Again, in order for the Aggies to make a bowl they need to take care of business.  It will be easier if Houston makes the BCS, leaving the New Orleans Bowl free to pick La Tech.

BCS Sugar Bowl...Houston
Liberty Bowl...Tulsa
Hawaii Bowl...Southern Mississippi
Armed Forces Bowl...SMU
New Orleans Bowl...(None Eligible)...Lousiana Tech substitutes.
Beef 'O' Bradys Bowl...(None Eligible)...Ball State substitutes.

For Conference USA...UCF, Marshall and East Carolina are one more loss away from not being bowl eligible and UTEP is 5-5.  Maybe one of those teams wins out and makes a bowl game.  If so, I think that the New Orleans Bowl would still want La Tech ahead of any of them...but we will see what works out.

Neither Southern Utah nor Weber State are eligible for the FCS playoffs.  7 wins are required.

Houston, Boise State and the BCS

Boise State is still ranked higher in the BCS than Houston.  BSU is 10 and UH is 11.  But you have to be the conference champion to get the #12 automatic bid.  BSU is not in the drivers seat in the MWC any longer.  TCU is in the drivers seat and Boise State needs to hope that both UNLV and Colorado State can knock off TCU.

BTW...

The Mountain West has another reason to be mad at BYU.  TCU tripped up Boise State.  The MWC will not have a team in the BCS and may have more bowl eligible teams then they have bowl slots for.  Here is the current MWC bowl picture...

Las Vegas...TCU
Poinsettia...Boise State
Independence...Wyoming
New Mexico...San Diego State
Also Eligible...Air Force

Note...Air Force and Wyoming are both at 5 wins.  Wyoming has New Mexico, Boise State and Colorado State remaining.  Air Force has UNLV and Colorado State remaining. BYU took the Armed Forces Bowl away from the MWC this year.  My hunch is, however, that someone will invite Air Force as they have fans everywhere.

Report on the Games

Utah State 34 San Jose State 33

Once again Adam Kennedy leads the Aggies for a 4th quarter comeback.  USU trailed 33-21 with 6 minutes remaining in the game.  Kennedy led the Aggies on a pair of long drives to put USU ahead with 41 seconds remaining.  The Spartans had the ball last, but a 67 yard field goal attempt was blocked.  Utah State won in spite of giving up 4 turnovers.  Utah State can keep their slim bowl hopes alive next week under the Kibbie Dome at Idaho.

MVP: Robert Turpin

Weber State 34 Northern Arizona 31

In Ron McBride's last home football game as a head coach, Weber came from behind to defeat the Lumberjacks.  NAU held a 27-24 lead at the beginning of the 4th quarter.  CJ Tuckett, a member of the running game committee, had 257 yards rushing and scored 3 touchdowns.  The final score for the Wildcats came with 26 seconds remaining on a running play from quarterback Mike Hoke.  Weber State can not finish with a winning record this season, but can play spoiler next week and possibly ruin Portland State's bid for the post season by beating the Vikings at Jeld Wenn Field in Ron McBride's final game as a head football coach.

MVP: CJ Tuckett

Northern Iowa 34 Southern Utah 21

The Thunderbirds were not able to maintain their slim hopes at the FCS post season.  SUU jumped to a 21-7 lead early in the second quarter, but the game was all Panthers from that point on.  Austin Minefee was good early in the game, scoring a rushing touchdown and returning a kickoff for a touchdown.  But the Panther defense stiffened. The T-Birds will conclude the season in next week's Grand Canyon Cup (my name for it) in Flagstaff against Northern Arizona.

SUU MVP: Austin Minefee

BYU 42 Idaho 7

BYU starting QB Riley Nelson broke a rib, but it wasn't completely ugly for Idaho.  But it was close.  Princeton McCardy broke through on an 82 yard touchdown run late in the third quarter to give the Idaho faithful a reason to cheer.

MVP: Cody Hoffman

Not the Way to Go.

Joe Paterno wanted to get out of the way of the Penn State investigation, but finish the season.  But the Board of Trustees in State College will not give him the chance.  He is out immediately.

One of Joe Paterno's long time assistants, Jerry Sandusky, was arrested and indicted for sexually abusing 8 children over 15 years.  This is not the type of scandal that will leave the program with a just a black eye.  This is not something that people will forget about in a couple of years.  This will linger in College Station for a long, long time.  That was not a simple mistake.  This was a crime against the most innocent and vulnerable among us.  More should have been done to protect these boys.  But the proper safeguards were not in place, and the image of one of college footballs great programs is forever tarnished.

This seems unfair to dismiss Paterno, based upon what we know about the scandal today.  From what we know, Paterno reported what he knew to the campus police.  It was others above him, the Athletic Director and the Vice President over athletics that swept this under the rug.  But this is the price you pay for being the guy on the top.  Everyone in Sundusky's chain of command was held responsible by the University board.  That is the proper course of action.  Others who knew and did nothing should be dismissed as well.

What was done by some in this incident was a crime.  There will be serious consequences to Penn State.  The Feds are investigating whether or not federal money was used properly.  If they find a problem, the Penn State system can lose funds from the government.  This is money that is used for everything from research and for student grants.  This may or may not be taken from the athletic department.  It will be a major headache for the university to deal with the loss of this money.  Students on Federal Aid could lose title IV money and funds for research projects could be curtailed.  Instructors and other staff will lose their jobs at a time when jobs are hard to come by.  It could effect every student on campus in one way or another.  That is why the trustees had to act and act quickly.  Too much is on the line.  This is why Joe Pa has to leave Happy Valley.

The Board of Trustees is doing what it must do to save face, to prevent lawsuits, and to ensure that Penn State remains a high performing research institution.  But on the field of athletics?  It will be a different story.  You don't replace a Joe Paterno with just anyone.  It took Florida State a couple of years to perform at a high level without Bobby Bowden.  It took BYU a bit longer to succeed without LaVell Edwards.  And it was nearly a decade before Nebraska could succeed without Tommy Osbourne.  You just can't replace a legend.

This incident will have a negative effect on Penn State sports for a long time.  But this time, it is not the most important thing.  Protecting the most vulnerable and innocent among us is the most important thing that we can do.  Quality football will have to wait for everything else to clear.

I am sorry to see a legend leave like this.  I wish it could have been different.  His last game on the sidelines should have been under the warm sun of Pasadena in January smelling the roses.  Not under the dark cloud of scandal.  Penn State will fix the problems that allowed this to happen. 

Hopefully, Penn State will make proper restitution to the victims.  After this is accomplished, it will be time to rebuild the football program.  Let's hope and pray for the best for the victims.  Once they are properly taken care of, then let's hope for quality football to return to College Station.

BYU to the Big East

Before I post about the Big East question, I recommend that everyone read Jay Drew's article in the Tribune.  Right now, I have nothing to say about it other than to grin and nod.  BYU seems to have become college football's version of the LA Rams of the 60s and 70s....the teams that Merlin Olsen played for.  They beat the teams that they should have beat, but could win the big games and could not get into the Super Bowl.

It took me a couple of days to work up to this.  But what does BYU gain from joining the Big East vs. remaining independent?  That is a good question.  From a financial standpoint, probably not much unless the Big East allows BYU-TV to rebroadcast games and to televise live games that do not get chosen to be broadcast on ESPN and the Big East TV partners.  But there are three advantages to the Big East that BYU does not have now.

1.  BCS access
2.  Late-season scheduling
3.  Regional rivalries

The BCS access at this time is iffy.  No team has ever been removed from BCS access to date.  Certainly if a conference is "worthy" of that distinction, it is the Big East.  I've asked this question before, and I ask this question again.  Does this look like a BCS conference to you?

East Division

Connecticut
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Louisville
Rutgers
South Florida
Navy

West Division

Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Houston
Memphis
San Diego State
SMU

It is no worse than the MWC was when BYU, Utah and TCU were a part of it.  May I remind you that the real problem the MWC has was not that the top teams were not good enough, it was that the bottom half, especially UNLV and New Mexico, were so bad.  Ditto for the WAC.  Cincinnati, Lousiville and Boise State have been legitimate BCS-worthy teams.  And there is no one as consistently bad on this list as UNLV, New Mexico or New Mexico State.  That may be good enough, and may not be.  It stands a chance and it may be that as good of a chance as BYU will ever get.  If that is the case, BYU will have no choice but to go for it.  If it does not work, well, go back to independence.

What if the NFL playoffs were held today...November 8, 2011

Disclaimer...this is the way that the NFL playoffs would be if they were played today.  Not all of the this team plays that team scenarios have taken place yet.  We are only about half way through the season.

NFC Playoffs

Division Champions
East-New York
North-Green Bay
South-New Orleans
West-San Francisco

Wild Card--Detroit, Atlanta

Championship home field: Green Bay

Bracket

Detroit at New Orleans winner to play at San Francisco
Atlanta at New York winner to play at Green Bay

Tie Breaker...Right now, Atlanta and New Orleans are tied in the loss column, but New Orleans has the better overall record.  This coming Sunday, New Orleans visits Atlanta.

AFC Playoffs

Division Champions

East--New England
North--Baltimore
South--Houston
West--San Diego

Wild Cards--Cincinnati and Pittsburgh

Championship Home Field--Baltimore

Bracket
Pittsburgh at San Diego winner plays at Baltimore
Cincinnati at New England winner plays at Houston



Tie Breaker...New England currently holds the tie breaker in the AFC east over Buffalo and New York due to a better division record.  Baltimore owns the AFC north due to a better division record.  San Diego owns the AFC west because they beat Kansas City in their head to head meeting.

Who Will Replace McBride at Weber State?

When Ron McBride stepped down from Utah, the Utes hit a home run in replacing him with Urban Meyer, who then went on to coach for Florida.  Will McBride be replaced by another Meyer?  That hire was probably one in a million, but there are some good coaches.  Here are some of my thoughts...

BTW...this is thinking out loud...I have no insider information.

My Choice

Weber State alum Robb Akey is the current and will likely soon become the former coach at Idaho.  I remember interacting with Akey when I returned home from my LDS mission and worked as a Math Tutor for the Football Team.  (He was NOT one of my students.)  He was at Weber State at the end of the Mike Price era and the beginning of the Dave Arslenian era and on the first WSU team to make the NCAA quarter finals.  He is very enthusiastic and has done well in what is really a no-win situation in Idaho.  (Not even Dennis Ericson could succeed at Idaho). 

Other Possibilities


Current Weber Assistants Jake Cookus who is the co-defensive coordinator, Matt Hammer who is the offensive coordinator and assistant head coach, Colton Swan who is the other co-defensive coordinator and assistant and former Tennessee Titan Andre Dyson.  The main drawback to any of these coaches is their lack of experience.

Other local assistant coaches...

Utah State offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin

BYU's Steve Kafusi or Paul Tidwell, both defensive assistants in Provo

Utah's Dave Schramm, Aaron Roderick or Morgan Scalley

Current Coaches as other FCS schools...

I can not think of any at this time...who would come to Weber?

Current Coaches at DII schools...

Central Washington...Blaine Bennett


Former Coaches

Former Wyoming, Montana and Northern Colorado Head Coach Joe Glenn
Former UNLV Head Coach Mark Stanford
Former Boise State and Colorado Head Coach Dan Hawkins
Former BYU and Louisiana Tech Head Coach Gary Crowton

If you would like to brainstorm with me and suggest some names, comment on this blog or email wasatchswagger@gmail.com

Thanks,

Breaking News...Ron McBride Retires

The Standard Examiner is reporting the Weber State head football coach Ron McBride will retire at the end of this season.

More details to come.

Saving the WAC...It Will Not Die

Thought that I would simplify what I said the other day.  In the end, the WAC will not die.  That was the logic of inviting Seattle, Denver and UT Arlington.  It was all about survival as basketball conference.  Benson is not so crazy nor stupid as he has been reported.  Again, this is how things appear to be going down.

There are 7 football members of the WAC, here is where they will end up.

Idaho--Will most likely return to the Football Championship Subdivision and the Big Sky Conference.  It is possible that the MWC will expand to 12 and invite the Vandals, but probably not without a commitment for a larger football facility.  That is the main hurdle.  The Kibble Dome is a nice indoor practice facility, but will not work in the MWC.

Louisiana Tech--Wants an invite to Conference-USA.  But they will settle for the Sun Belt.  If UTEP ends up in a 12-member MWC, then La Tech's chances at a C-USA invite improve.

New Mexico State--Has very little to offer anyone in the way of athletics or academics or market.  If they remain in the FBS, they will return to the Sun Belt Conference, possibly for football only.  They could end up in the Southland Conference (FCS).  It is a longshot possibility for them to end up in the MWC with New Mexico.  If they join the Sun Belt only in Football, then the rest of their sports can remain in the WAC.

San Jose State--Will likely end up in the MWC as a replacement for Boise State/Air Force.

Texas State--Will likely end up joining the Sun Belt Conference but have a long-shot chance that C-USA will invite them.

Texas San Antonio--Their first year of football...not so good.  But they have the Alamo City and the Alamodome and could get a C-USA invite, but will most likely end up as a member of the Sun Belt Conference.

Utah State--Most likely will join the Mountain West.

So what happens to the WAC?

Currently, they have 3 non-football schools

Denver
Texas Arlington
Seattle

And they will be joined by

Cal-State Bakersfield
Utah Valley

And they could also invite

Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Who is a non-football member of the Southland Conference.

And, they can get the Olympic Sports of Big East Invitees

Air Force
Boise State

Making the non-football WAC look like...

Air Force
Boise State
Cal State Bakersfield
Denver
Seattle
Texas Arlington
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Utah Valley
Possibly New Mexico State joins Sun Belt as football only and remains in the WAC for other sports.

What will the Sun Belt look like?

My guess is that the Sun Belt will lose North Texas and Middle Tennessee to C-USA.  They could lose one more, but the third C-USA replacement will likely come from elsewhere (Appalachian State).  But they gain 4.

East Division

Florida AtlanticFlorida International
Louisiana Lafayette
Louisiana Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky

West Division

Arkansas Little Rock (Non Football)
Arkansas State
New Mexico State (Football only) 
Texas State
Texas San Antonio
South Alabama
Troy

Who in Utah is Eligible for the Post Season...

BYU

Current record..6-3...3 more left to play.  Idaho, New Mexico State and @Hawaii

It is all settled except for the formal invitation.  BYU will be going to the Armed Forces Bowl.  The formal invitation will likely be extended after BYU's last home game against New Mexico State.  Their opponent looks to be either SMU or Tulsa.  The bowl game is played on SMU's home field.  Even though Tulsa appears to be the 3rd place team in C-USA, many predict that SMU will be selected for this bowl because of it's location.  It would represent lower travel costs and almost guarantee a sell-out crowd.  BYU and SMU have some history, as well.  And if rumors about the Big East are to be believed, BYU and SMU might have a future.

Update: The latest projections from ESPN have Southern Mississippi playing against BYU in this game.

Utah

If the Utes win 1 of their final 3, the Utes will be bowl eligible.  But to determine which bowl the Utes will go into, we must first look at the current BCS picture. 

BCS National Championship...LSU vs Oklahoma State
Rose (PAC-10 vs Big 10)...Stanford vs. Penn State
Fiesta (Big 12 vs At Large)... Oklahoma vs Oregon
Orange (ACC vs At-Large, usually Big East)...Clemson vs Cincinnati
Sugar (SEC vs At Large)  Alabama vs Boise State

Here is the current PAC-12 bowl picture.

1. BCS (Probable Rose Bowl)...Stanford Current BCS standing #4
2. Also BCS (Probable Fiesta)...Oregon Current BCS standing #7
3. Alamo...Arizona State
4. Holiday...Washington
5. Sun...Utah*
6. Las Vegas Bowl...California*
7. Kraft Fight Hunger...UCLA*
8. New Mexico...Probably none eligible...Washington State has to win out.  The bid goes to the MAC if the PAC-12 is unable to fill this commitment.

*Utah, California and UCLA are not yet bowl eligible.
Utah is 5-4 with UCLA, @Washington State and Colorado remaining
UCLA is 5-4 with @Utah, Colorado and @USC remaining
California is currently 5-4 and has Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona State remaining
Washington State has Arizona State, Utah and @Washington remaining
Not eligible for bowls: USC, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado

PAC-12 championship game should be Arizona State at Stanford.  Oregon appears destined for a BCS-at-large bid no matter the outcome of this game.

Analysis for Utah.  They should win 2 of their final 3 if not all three and should end up in the Sun Bowl.  If they lose one of their final 3, they should end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl.  Utah has the most favorable schedule between the 4 PAC-12 team fighting for bowl eligibility.

Update: The latest projection from ESPN has Utah either playing North Carolina in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl or playing Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl.

Utah State

Here is the current WAC bowl picture

Hawaii (5-4) needs 2 more wins to be eligible and qualify for the Hawaii bowl.  Hawaii plays 13 games and needs to have 7 wins.  Hawaii still could win the WAC championship if they win out. Hawaii has @Nevada, Fresno State, Tulane and BYU remaining. 

Nevada is currently 5-3 and needs to 1 more game to be bowl eligible.  Nevada, needs 2 more wins if one of those wins is against La Tech to win the WAC championship.  Remaining games are Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State and Idaho

Louisiana Tech can win the WAC championship if they win their remaining conference games and Hawaii loses one of their remaining conference games.  La Tech needs one more win to become bowl eligible.  Remaining games @Ole Miss, @Nevada and New Mexico State

Utah State is currently 3-5 and must win 3 of their remaining 4 games to be bowl eligible.  Those games are San Jose State, @Idaho, Nevada and @ New Mexico State

San Jose State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be bowl eligible.  Those games are @ Utah State, Navy and @ Fresno State

Fresno State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be bowl eligible.  Fresno State plays a 13 game schedule this year and must finish 7-6 or better.  Their remaining games are @ New Mexico State, @ Hawaii, San Jose State and @ San Diego State.

New Mexico State State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be bowl eligible.  New Mexico State plays a 13 game schedule this year and must finish 7-6 or better.  Their remaining games are Fresno State, @BYU, @ Louisiana Tech and Utah State

Analysis on the WAC picture.  If things do go right for the WAC, if the right teams do not win out, then the WAC could end up with only 1 or 2 bowl eligible teams.  It looks like they will end up with 3 and hopefully 4 bowl eligible teams.

Now, if the bowl eligible teams are Nevada, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Utah State; here is how the invitations should work out. 

Hawaii...Hawaii
Nevada...Poinsettia
Idaho Famous Potato...?Louisiana Tech? 
Utah State...

Utah State won at Hawaii and there is no reason why they can not beat a rebuilding Nevada in Logan.  There is no reason why they can not win all 4 of their remaining games.  But they lost a couple of other games this season that they should have won.  Hopefully, the win at Hawaii will help USU build momentum for their remaining games and provide the late-game confidence they missed earlier this season.  Right now, Sagarin has them as a 12 point favorite against San Jose State, an 8 point favorite at Idaho, a 1 point favorite at home vs Nevada and a 9 point favorite at New Mexico State.  Wouldn't it be great to just see USU in a bowl game, even if they have to go to Albuquerque or Boise?

Beyond winning their remaining games, there does not seem to be an opening for USU unless other conferences are not able to fill all of their bowl options.  The best case scenario for the Aggies is that UCLA can not finish bowl eligible and the Aggies become an option for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.  They could hope that either Wyoming or San Diego State can not finish bowl eligible and they can get into the New Mexico Bowl.  Or the most likely scenario is that either the GoDaddy.com Bowl, Little Cesar Pizza Bowl or the New Orleans Bowl will have an opening and will want Louisiana Tech allowing USU to go to Boise, the blue turf and the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl.  These other bowls are better travel options for La Tech.

I should point out that Jerry Palm at CBSSports.com does not have anyone listed for the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl because he does not believe that there will be enough bowl eligible teams.  But he does not list either Utah State nor Louisiana Tech among his bowl eligible teams.  Therefore, here is how I believe the WAC bowls will play out.


Hawaii...Hawaii
Nevada...Poinsettia
Idaho Famous Potato...Utah State
Little Caesar's Pizza...Louisiana Tech 

No longer bowl eligible.
Idaho

Update: ESPN is showing no love for the Aggies.  They are not on a bowl projection.  That could change should USU defeat San Jose State and Idaho.

Southern Utah

It's a long shot at best, but if SUU wins their remaining two games, they could get an invite to the FCS playoffs.  They would have a 7-4 record with some quality wins.  Both games are on the road against Northern Iowa and Northern Arizona.  Northern Iowa is the first place team in the MVFC...did I mention that it's a long shot?  But if SUU can beat the Panthers, they would have some quality wins under their belt.  The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid.

Conference Report November 5, 2011

FBS Independents

Game of the Week: Notre Dame nips Wake Forest 24-17

-Army drops the ball and game at Air Force 24-14
-Navy torpedoes Troy


MVP: Notre Dame RB Jonas Gray

PAC-12

Game of the Week: UCLA sneaks past Arizona State 29-28

-USC steamrolls Colorado  42-17
-Standford "Lucks" past Oregon State 38-13
-Cal blows out Washington State 30-7
-Utah takes care of Arizona 34-21
-Oregon doubles up Washington 34-17

MVP: USC QB Matt Barkley

WAC

Game of the Week: Utah State nips Hawaii 35-31

Georgia embarrasses New Mexico State 63-16
Idaho nips San Jose State 32-29
Louisiana Tech jumps on Fresno State 41-21

MVP: Idaho RB Kama Bailey


Big Sky

Game of the Week: Portland State runs past Sacramento State 29-20

-Montana defeated Western Oregon 32-7
-Montana State hold down Weber State 44-24
-Northern Arizona stops Northern Colorado 24-14

MVP: Portland State WR Justin Monahan

Great West

Game of the Week: North Dakota slips past Sioux Falls 19-17

UC Davis holds off Cal Poly 24-17

MVP: UC Davis QB Randy Wright

Report on the Games, November 5, 2011

Here, in a nutshell, is what happened to Utah football teams this last Saturday...

Utah State 35 Hawaii 31

Utah State figured out how to avoid the 4th quarter bugaboo that has plagued them all season...be the team that makes the 4th quarter comeback.  For the first time in 2011, USU trailed at the end of the 3rd quarter, 31-21, but outscored Hawaii 14-0 in the final frame.  USU outscored Hawaii 28-3 in the second half.  The Aggies keep their slim hopes at bowl eligibility and their first winning season in a long time alive.  The bad news for Utah State is that Chuckie Keeton left the game in the first half after a 14 yard scramble where he lost the ball.  As of 7:30 AM this morning, the SL Trib did not have an update on Keeton's status other than it was a neck injury and he was taken to a Honolulu hospital.  Adam Kennedy played the entire second half and engineered the USU comeback.  The task does not get easier for USU next week who hosts fellow WAC upstart San Jose State next week.

USU MVP: QB Adam Kennedy

Utah 34 Arizona 21

The Utah Utes took advantage of a rare "off" day by Arizona's Nick Foles to edge the Wildcats in Tuscon.  Utah jumped out to an early 17-0 lead as the Wildcat offense sputtered.  The Arizona offense failed on convert 4th down attempts on their first two drives and Nick Foles threw an interception on the 4th Cat drive.  Three of Utah's first 4 drives resulted in points.  Utah had a 20-7 lead at half time.  The two teams traded a pair of 2nd half touchdowns.

Utah MVP: John White IV

Montana State 44 Weber State 24

Fourth ranked Montana State clinched a share of the Big Sky Conference championship and almost assured themselves of a spot in the FCS playoffs when they scored 24 unanswered 2nd half points in Ogden.  The loss ensures that Weber State will finish below .500 for the first time since 2007.  WSU had a 24-20 lead at halftime, but the second half was a tale of futility for the Weber State offense where they gained only 96 yards.  The one incursion into Bobcat territory in the 2nd half resulted in a missed field goal.  At that point, the game was not yet out of hand and would have cut the Bobcat lead to 30-27.  That drive accounted for 60 of WSU's 96 second half yards.

WSU MVP: RB Josh Booker

BYU and SUU were off for the week.

Saving the WAC...The End is Near

What Will Conference-USA do?

The Big East Conference has taken 3 from Conference-USA and 2 from the Mountain West Conference.  The question for Conference-USA is whether they remain at 9 schools or replace those who they have lost.  I know people around the country are curious, because this has suddenly become my most read post.  As C-USA has lost 2 of the 3 teams in Texas, I believe that is where they will go next...not to Louisiana Tech, but to North Texas and possibly UTSA.  Although Louisiana Tech is certainly lobbying hard to get off of the sinking ship known as the WAC.  However, I believe that if C-USA returns to 12 teams, they will not take the Rushton school.  My guess at this point is North Texas, Middle Tennessee and Appalachian State.  I have been wrong before, but I believe that the WAC may dodge the bullet here.

C-USA will probably not loose any others even if the Big 12 returns to 12 and takes Louisville and Cincinnati.  The Big East has better options left to them.  BYU, and Temple are at the top of the list right now.  Memphis is a favorite of Louisville coach Rick Pitino, but if he is not in the Big East, why take his input?  Especially if Memphis is not the best market and university to add to the fold.  The new western-half of the Big East...Houston, SMU, Air Force and Boise are pushing for the Cougars.

What about the MWC?

Where the WAC will not dodge the bullet is in the Mountain West Conference.  Certainly, the MWC will add at least 1 school and return to 9.  That 1 school should be Utah State.  Even though the Aggies are only 2-5 at this point, they have been in every game they have played.  They have held the lead in the 4th quarter in every single game so far this year.  You also can't ignore, if you are the Mountain West Conference, what Stew Morrill and the Spectrum Crazies have done on the basketball court.  Nor can the MWC afford to ignore how the Beehive State supported the mtn. when BYU and Utah were part of the fold.  The MWC, if they get Utah State, will have the 2 fastest growing states in the country...Utah and Nevada.

Now the question is this, does the Mountain West Conference expand beyond 9?  This is anyone's guess at this point.  They may follow the lead of Conference-USA.  If Conference-USA remains at 9, the MWC will remain at 9 and only add Utah State.  If C-USA pushes for other schools, so will the MWC.  If the MWC expands beyond 9, they will finish off the WAC for good.

Beyond Utah State, San Jose State probably is the next school.  San Diego State and Fresno State will push  to complete the trio of Cal-State schools that have not been together since SDSU left the Big West in the 70s.  And the MWC may not be able to resist getting a foothold in the Bay Area, even if the Spartans are way down the food chain.

Eleven and 12 are not so easy because the options are dwindling.  Idaho is a good academic option, but their facilities are not the best and neither is their fan support.  But if the MWC takes Idaho and New Mexico State, they could consolidate football mid-major power and take out another conference...sort of another merger.  They could ask C_USA to add La Tech, UTSA and make a formal WAC merger complete, but I don't think it will happen.  If the MWC goes to 12 at this point, Idaho is a good option, but not New Mexico State.  At least Idaho has a respected academic profile.  New Mexico State has very little to offer.  They do not have a winning tradition on the gridiron nor are their academics worth bragging about. IMHO, New Mexico State truly belongs in the Southland Conference...in the FCS.  But they will end up in the Sun Belt along with Texas State, Louisiana Tech and UTSA.

If the MWC stays at 10, and does not go to 12 and add Idaho, they should return to the FCS and the Big Sky Conference.  If the MWC reaches out and accepts the Vandals, a serious push for a 25,000+ seat outdoor stadium should be be more than seriously considered.

The 12th team for the MWC should be bold and should be based on potential.  I have been shot down by readers for suggesting Montana.  But I stick by that suggestion.  If not Montana, then who?

The WAC, at this point should lock up the non-football programs for Air Force and Boise State, add Utah Valley, CS-Bakersfield and Texas A&M Corpus Christi and keep the NCAA automatic bid and become a basketball conference.  I have heard that the Missouri Valley is considering Air Force while even the Big Sky is pursuing Boise State.  If the WAC can not lock up Boise State's non-football programs and BSU joins the Big Sky, the WAC should fold.

Ranking Utah's College Basketball Teams...How do the stack up?

The pre-season mid-major poll was released yesterday.  BYU came out at #9 and WSU came out at #19.  Here is the Utah power rankings for the pre-season.

1.  Brigham Young
2.  Weber State
3.  Utah State
4.  Southern Utah
5.  Utah
6.  Utah Valley