Let me say from the start, I know of no rumors of expansion from Conference USA, expect they may be looking for replacements if they are raided by the Big East or other conferences. Should Villanova not decide to upgrade the the FBS the way that U-Conn did a few years ago, then C-USA may lose as many as three programs. The Big 12 may also be looking to get back to 12. Central Florida, Houston, East Carolina, SMU, Memphis and Tulsa may be Big East or Big 12 candidates. They may also have to deal with Tulane dropping football. Here is a look at who they could consider:
From the Sun Belt
North Texas -- The Mean Green is another program that is a shadow of their former glory, and seem to have languished in the current incarnation of the Sun Belt conference. They have rebuffed the WAC several times, however. Seems like they are hoping for C-USA to make the call. The North Texas Market may be perfect for C-USA, but they already have SMU. This would really would not be an expansion, but further extension into a market that the Big 12 already owns and will for the foreseeable future.
FAU/FIU -- Should C-USA lose Central Florida, either of these programs would help the conference keep a foothold in the Sunshine State. It is a rich recruiting field for many football programs. However, this is another market that is dominated by programs from bigger conferences, namely Miami and South Florida, and usually both FAU and FIU are on ESPN's Bottom 10 list. FIU had a winning record in 2010, won the Sun Belt Championship and the Little Ceasar's Bowl.
Middle Tennessee--The Conference already has Memphis and inviting another program from the Volunteer State, seems logical. This school is in the Nashville suburb of Murpheesburough. Meaning that their main competition is Vanderbilt. The Commodores do not cast a big shadow, even if they are in the SEC. Since moving up from the FCS in 2000, the Blue Raiders have been consistent winners, but lost last year in the GoDaddy.com bowl.
Troy--Even though they are new to Division I sports, Troy has had some success in recent years with wins over Mississippi and Missouri. It gives C-USA a rival to mainstay UAB. Troy is in rural southeast Alabama and not exactly a big market program.
From the WAC
Louisiana Tech--Since the WAC has been put on life support by last summer's conference realignment, no one has more publicly wanted a new conference outside of LT. C-USA does not have a school in football friendly Louisiana. Getting to Rushton from anywhere may be the biggest draw-back.
UTSA--Those looking for the next Boise State are looking at for the Roadrunners to prove it can be done again. They are in football-friendly San Antonio, will play in the Alamodome and have a well seasoned head coach at the helm. If I was a member of the Conference USA board of directors, I would be looking hard at this school should I need a replacement.
New Mexico State--If the WAC stops sponsoring football, then the Las Cruces school will be looking for a new conference. There are some negatives in adding the Aggies, however. First, the football program has never been spectacular. They have very few winning seasons and bowl appearances to boast about. Second is that their academics are not exactly stellar. They are in a size-able market, they get a lot of recruits from Southwest Texas and they make a good travel partner for UTEP.
From the FCS
Appalachian State--It was not a fluke that this program took it to Michigan a few years ago. This is really a quality program that is good year in and year out. They are well set up to repeat this success in the FBS.
Georgia Southern--This is another FCS program the is set up to succeed at the next level. Football-friendly Georgia only has two FBS programs at this time and there is plenty of room for another.
Missouri State--This is another FCS program that may be looking for an upgrade, according to the comment of one reader--Thank You, BTW. They are located in the Central Missouri hamlet of Springfield, they are closer to Kansas City than St. Louis. They have facilities that are ready from an upgrade. The football stadium holds 16,000 and they boast a new basketball arena.
May 29, update:
I have spent a lot of time looking at tweets and other comments all over the web for what Conference USA might do. They seem to be working in the background, examining their options. But there is no panic. This is not the WAC. There are plenty of options in the C-USA footprint. Another option for C-USA, should they fall to 9 members is to remain at 9 members and wait for the dust of conference expansion and realignment to clear or remain permanently at 9. They would lose the revenue of the conference championship game, but there would be fewer slices of the pie to share and the revenue per school might increase. The conference just signed a new TV deal with fox that is worth 14 million per season, or 1.16 million per year per school and it is not public what effect a the loss of the conference championship game would do to that total.
Certainly, C-USA will look at what markets potential new members would add. Based upon this, I would have to believe that UTSA, Middle Tennessee and probably one of the Florida schools would be the leading candidates to join Conference USA should they need replacements.
September 8, 2011 Update.
Texas A&M is trying to go to the SEC. If the Big 12 does break up, you can add Baylor and Iowa State as C-USA potential members. If the Big 12 breaks up, whose to say that C-USA won't go to 16 either.
September 22, 2011 Update.
With the PAC-12 refusing to add members at this time, it appears that the Big 12 will stay together. With Pitt and 'Cuse leaving the Big East, it looks as if C-USA will lose some members. SMU, Houston, East Carolina, Central Florida and Southern Mississippi are considered potential members for either the Big 12 or Big East. The key will be what TCU does at this point. The Big East could add SMU in an effort to keep TCU from joining the Big 12. If this happens, Houston could end up in the Big 12. ECU, UCF and Southern Miss could also join the Big East along with Temple from the MAC. C-USA could now lose as many as 5. Good news is that they have choices to replace those they lose.
Who C-USA adds should depend on who they lose. Let's say they suffer the worst-case scenario, which is Houston to the Big 12 with SMU, ECU, UCF, and Southern Miss to the Big East, then I would chose North Texas, UTSA, Middle Tennessee, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern.
September 24, 2011 Update
East Carolina is the reportedly the first C-USA program to leave for the Big East. They have formally applied for Big East Membership.
November 1, 2011 Update
It appears that C-USA will at least lose Houston, SMU and UCF to the Big East. Who tops the list for replacement? The MWC/C-USA merger will no doubt be weakened if C-USA does not make a move for replacements. But in retrospect, it may be part of the plan of both conferences to avoid going into divisions. 9 is a good size for division-less college sports. But no Houston, SMU or Boise--the football merger plan is weak.
Here are some interesting article about Conference USA and their revenue picture:
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2011-01-05/sports/os-conference-usa-fox-tv-deal-20110105_1_cbs-college-sports-secondary-agreement-fox-sports-florida
http://businessofcollegesports.com/category/conference-finance-series/
1 comment:
Missouri State make the move from FCS? Would be a nice basketball and baseball addition.
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