Does SEC Expansion spell RIP WAC?

Rumors are popping up about the Southeast Conference expanding into Texas. Rumors are like car wash tokens. Whether or not they are of any value depends on a lot of factors beyond our control. However, we have learned in recent history that big conference expansion means doom for the little guys. In this case, it could end the WAC.

The rumors are that that SEC is ready to go to 14, and they want to expand into the heart of Texas. Weather the Texas Longhorns want the SEC is another question. Texas has to be the big boy, the one with all the attention. The one calling all of the shots. Kind of what BYU thought they had in the MWC before Utah joined the PAC-10. Where BYU would have jumped at the opportunity to join the PAC-10, Texas is luke warm on the idea of joining the SEC. And the SEC does not need to allow Texas to join and let Texas decide their terms. There will be no negotiation. If Texas does not like the SEC offer, they will take another path...independence. Texas and the SEC will flirt, but if it does not work our right away, it will go no farther.

Texas A&M will consider the SEC, however. So will Oklahoma. This is the way that it appears to be working out. The SEC gets A&M and Oklahoma. Texas goes out on their own and becomes the 5th FBS independent. Not sure where basketball goes, likely either the Big East, MVC or independent as well.

Now, how the dominoes fall from here is anyone's guess.

(Disclaimer: this is not a prediction.)

Scenario 1--WAC dies
SEC invites Texas and Texas A&M...
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas and Missouri
Big 12 invites BYU, Boise State, SMU, Houston, UNLV and San Diego State (Remember that the Big 12 still as Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech and Baylor)
MWC invites Utah State, San Jose State and Idaho
C-USA invites Louisiana Tech and UTSA
Sun Belt invites Texas State
New Mexico State is left without a conference

alt: BYU remains independent, the Big 12 adds Air Force instead and the MWC accepts New Mexico State. Getting BYU and Boise State will be critical for the Big 12 to keep their BCS AQ status.

Scenario 2--WAC survives
SEC invites Texas A&M and Oklahoma
Texas becomes independent
ACC invites West Virginia and Rutgers
Big East invites Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma State
Big 12 disbands
MWC invites Texas Tech and Kansas State
WAC invites Iowa State
C-USA invites Baylor and MTSU

alt: Big East invites Texas Tech and Kansas State as well (That would put the Big East at 20 overall and 12 for football). The MWC invites Baylor and Iowa State and the WAC is left alone.

I'm sure that I will be bombarded with other scenarios. But in the long run, the WAC could emerge from the ashes of other conferences or the WAC could die. If the SEC expands, it all depends on how the other conferences react.