Not So Fast Take on College Football Split

One problem that I have had with the proposal out of the Big 10 that schools pay for the full cost of attendance is that fact that TV revenue is the only factor considered in which schools could make it is TV revenue.  For many schools, even huge TV numbers are only a piece of the total pie when it comes to revenue.  Many schools, in fact, make more money from attendance and donations than they make from TV.  Therefore, one can come to the conclusion that if the Big 10 proposal were approved, that likely that not even the Big 10 would make the cut.  There are schools from the BCS conferences that are struggling with revenue in spite of getting big TV money.  And there are schools from non-automatic qualifying conferences that do well even without a huge chunk of TV money.  But, the TV money helps.

Attendance is the biggest driver in college football revenue.

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2009/07/how-much-revenue-did-your-favorite-fbs-school-take-in-in-200708-this-chart-will-tell-you.html

But as you can can see by comparing to 2008 attendance figures, TV money is a factor.  Donations from alumni and corporate sponsorships make up the rest.

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2008.pdf


It is estimated that the total cost of education would add as much as 1 million dollars in cost per school.  BYU and Utah would likely be able to handle this additional expense.  In two years time, Utah will be raking in an additional 20 to 40 million in revenue, and although costs will increase, it will not be by 20 to 40 million dollars.  BYU's TV deal with ESPN is worth 3 to 18 million dollars depending on how often the Cougars show up on the World Wide Leader and whether or not they get to a bowl game.

BYU, according to the Department of Education (http://ope.ed.gov/athletics/GetOneInstitutionData.aspx), made about 5,000,000 in profit in 2009.  Utah broke even in 2009.  Utah State lost 25,000 in their sports programs in 2009, but also paid for upgrades to their facilities.  Weber State netted about 287,000 in 2009.  Southern Utah netted about 96,000.

In 2009, BYU averaged about 64,000 people per game, Utah about 45,000, Utah State about 16,000, Weber State around 6,500 and Southern Utah about 5,000.  Across the country, there is a correlation between attendance and revenues for sports.  The best thing that a person can do to show support for their favorite team is to show up on game day and buy a ticket.

Therefore, the results of the proposal to split Division I into 4 subdivision(Remember, there is also Division I-AAA or the no football subdivision), I would do it like this.

New Football Bowl Subdivision (Division I-A).
-Pays full cost of attendance.
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 35,000 (Each conference can keep two members that are below the standard.)
-18 sponsored sports, at least 6 men's programs and 8 women's programs. 90% scholarships.
-All schools, except for the service academies, must award doctoral degrees.
-BCS+1 playoff.

Make up:Current BCS Conferences
Plus non BCS Schools that could make the cut:
BYU, East Carolina, Hawaii, Air Force and UCF are non-BCS schools that meet this attendance standard.  Cincinnati, Duke and Washington State are BCS Programs that do not meet this standard.

New Football Playoff Subdivision (Division I-AA):
-Traditional Scholarships
-Paid or actual attendance at football games, at least 8,000 (Conference Average, meaning, the conference could carry two schools that do not meet the attendance standard.)  (8,000 would be a starting number, it should eventually be raised to 10,000 once the economy improves.)
-At least 12 sponsored sports, at least 4 men's and 6 women's sports.  75% scholarships.
-All schools must award master's degrees.
-20 team playoff.
Make up: 11 Conferences: C-USA, MWC, WAC, MAC, Sun Belt, SoCon, Missouri Valley Football Conference, Big Sky, MEAC, Southland and CAA

Some schools in this alignment would have to drop down if they do not meet the attendance requirement or other requirements.  This would be the case for at least 5 members of the 13-member Big Sky conference, for example.  (Idaho State, Weber State, Portland State, Northern Arizona and Northern Colorado.)  But the conference can keep two members that are below the standard.

Football Championship Subdivision (Division I-AAA)
-Current FCS Standards (50% scholarships)
-Paid or actual attendance, at least 5,000 (Conference Average)
-12-team playoff.
Makeup: 10 Conferences: Ohio Valley, Big South, Patriot, Pioneer, NEAC, Ivy, SWAC + Plus 3 other conferences made up of current FCS teams that would not qualify for the FPS (Such as Indiana State or Northern Colorado) and Division II schools (Like West Texas A&M and Angelo State (17 Schools met this standard in 2009)) that have a high enough attendance to move up.

No Football Subdivision (Division I-AAAA)
-A schools that otherwise qualify for Division I, that do not sponsor football teams.

May 30 Update:

I have not taken the time to look at all 120 programs, but have taken a look at the Department of Education site for many I thought were in trouble.  The fact is, they are not.  Nearly everyone at least breaks even.  I think that this proposal will go down as the biggest much ado about nothing in sports history.  At most, it will encourage some programs that do not draw well at the gate to drop to the FCS and discourage some programs from making the jump to the FBS.