No Big East After All

BYU will not be joining the Big East after all. Here is why Independence has not been good for BYU.

Attendance at home games.

While it is too early to tell after only one season, the fans in the Provo area do not seem to approve of the level of competition BYU has scheduled in November.  Attendance at home games is down 5% over 2010 when arguably the level of competition is the same.  In 2011, the average November attendance is 57,000 with Idaho and New Mexico State.  In 2010 it was 60,000 with UNLV and New Mexico.  It was above 64,000 with Utah and Air Force in 2009.  In 2010, attendance was off 6.25% from 2009  The trend in November attendance in Provo is not good right now.

If this downward trend continues, BYU will be seeing increasingly sparse crowds in November.  And it will be more difficult than it is now for BYU to schedule quality November opponents.  Here is a strait-line projected attendance for LaVell Edwards Stadium in the future...

2009--64,300--Air Force and Utah
2010--60,000 down 6.25%--UNLV and New Mexico
2011--57,000 down 5.00%--Idaho and New Mexico State
2012--54,800 down 3.75%--Idaho and Hawaii
2013--53,200 down 2.50%--TBA
2014--52,500 down 1.25%--TBA
2015--51,800 down 1.25%--TBA

Now, I understand that most college programs in the country would be pleased with 51,800 people in the stands.  But that represents money that will go to the other team.  Total revenues will be down somewhere in the neighborhood of 200,000 to 400,000 per game.  Some of that is shared with the visiting team, making it less likely that another team will break their conference schedule in November.  In order for Independence to work, fans have to show up at games.  Ticket revenues need to remain strong.  So for the trend indicates that this will not be the case.

Scheduling.

BYU has their 2012 schedule lined up, although the dates are not firm.  Fans used to seeing decent MWC competition in November...such as Colorado State, when they were good, Air Force, Rocky Long's New Mexico, and San Diego State will now have to suffer with the dregs of the lower conferences.  BYU's schedule will be front loaded with tough competition in September, and weak competition in November.  BYU's future Septembers feature Texas, West Virginia, Utah, Boise State and Houston.  Beyond 2013, BYU has nothing but Notre Dame scheduled in November, and that one game is in Indiana.  BYU fans will likely be able to look forward to more San Jose State, New Mexico State or even worse, some Sun Belt Conference and MAC in the future.  As of right now, BYU has no November games scheduled beyond 2012.

Something to play for.

Unless BYU is struggling with bowl eligibility or has a BCS possibility, games in November will be meaningless outside of a conference, other than just playing for experience.  If 2010 is an indication of the future, fans will not come and support a team struggling with bowl eligibility against weaker competition.  Fans want games in November that are meaningful and they want good competition.  In 2009, BYU had already been eliminated from MWC title contention by the time that Air Force came to town, but were still playing to get a better bowl game, and ended up in the Las Vegas Bowl when they could have wound up in the New Mexico Bowl.  This year, and in the next two years, BYU will know what bowl game they will attend as soon as they have 6 wins, unless they are unbeaten.


Bowl Games


With changes to the BCS pending, where only the #1 and #2 teams in the country will play in the BCS championship and the other bowls back to getting the best teams they can, it is a good argument that BYU will not need to be in a big conference to get to a big bowl game.  This means that seeing a better bowl game than the trio of games BYU has agreed to in independence seems unlikely.  Will an 11-1 BYU team replace the PAC-12 in the Rose Bowl if, say, Oregon gets to the BCS Championship as an independent?  Never  The Rose Bowl will simply pick the 2nd place PAC-12 team.  But without the Big East, BYU will likely never play in the Orange Bowl or the Sugar Bowl, even as a 12-0 team.  The Fiesta Bowl will remain only a slim possibility unless the Big 12 decides to make the Cotton Bowl their primary bowl game again.  The Big East will likely remain tied to the Florida Citrus Bowl, a game that the Cougars have been to twice.  In the Big East, the Orange Bowl and Sugar Bowl are possible and arguments for even for replacing the PAC-12 team in the Rose Bowl become stronger.


Rivaries


Let's face it.  The Holy War is dieing a slow death.  It does not mean as much as it used to.  Rivalries drive fans to a game in November, even in losing seasons.  Who will be BYU's big rival if they are independent?


My Conclusion.


True, the Big East is not the perfect situation for BYU, but it is better than what they had and better than independence.  In my opinion, BYU has put TV exposure over the things that make college football great.  There is no guarantee that the TV interest will be there in the future.  A conference will provide guaranteed exposure, even for a 4-8 team.  It was foolish for BYU to insist on so much and kill it's chances on improving their situation in football.