BYU
BYU has the Armed Forces Bowl bid locked up. At this point it looks like their opponent will be SMU. Why? The Mustangs are now in 4th in C-USA, but Houston could be BCS bound. That would put Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl, Southern Mississippi in the Hawaii Bowl and leave SMU for the Armed Forces Bowl. If Houston does not earn a BCS bid, then BYU's opponent appears to be Southern Mississippi.
Utah
The Utes are bowl eligible for the 9th consecutive season. The last time Utah failed to make a bowl game was 2002. But let's examine were they will go.
Here is the current BCS picture. I will update this post when the BCS standings are released, but I imagine that Stanford and Boise State will not be in the BCS any longer.
BCS Championship...LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl...Oregon vs. Michigan State
Fiesta Bowl...Oklahoma vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar Bowl...Alabama vs. Houston
Orange Bowl...Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Pac-12 Bowl Picture
BCS (Rose Bowl)...Oregon vs. Michigan State
Alamo Bowl...Stanford vs. Baylor
Holiday Bowl...Arizona State vs. Texas
Sun Bowl...Washington vs. Georgia Tech
Las Vegas Bowl...Utah vs. TCU
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl...California vs. Miami (FL)
New Mexico Bowl...UCLA* vs. San Diego State
*UCLA is yet bowl eligible.
UCLA is currently 5-5 with Colorado and USC remaining.
USC, Arizona, Colorado and Washington State are no longer bowl eligible.
Can Utah still play in the Rose Bowl? It is not impossible. Arizona State, which has dropped their last two games, would have to lose both of their remaining games and Utah would have to win both of their remaining games. The way ASU played against Washington State, that is not too far fetched. Then Utah would have to beat, presumably Oregon, on the road in the PAC-12 championship game. That would be, at this point, an epic upset.
Utah State/WAC Bowl Picture
Nevada appears to be the WAC champion, but can wrap the championship up if they defeat Louisiana Tech in Reno next week. You should expect to see the Wolfpack in the Poinsettia Bowl.
Louisiana Tech is now bowl eligible. They will go to the Idaho Famous Potato bowl unless there is another eligible team from the WAC. If there are only 3 bowl eligible teams from the WAC, La Tech will be obligated to go to Boise. If not, they may get to go to a bowl game closer to Rushton. Why? Look at the Conference USA Bowl Picture. It will be all messed up if Houston gets to the BCS. Then C-USA will have only 3 or 4 bowl eligible teams and 6 bowl slots. I think that Louisiana Tech would rather go to New Orleans Bowl if that option is open to them. And if C-USA can't fill that slot, the New Orleans Bowl would probably prefer La Tech as a substitute. But if La Tech beats Nevada and wins the WAC, I'm sure that they would be just fine going to San Diego and the Poinsettia Bowl.
Utah State is now 4-5 and needs to win 2 out of the last 3 to be bowl eligible. They have @ Idaho, Nevada and @ New Mexico State left.
New Mexico State can still become bowl eligible, but they have @ BYU, @ La Tech and Utah State left.
Fresno State, San Jose State and Idaho can no longer become bowl eligible.
Here is how I think things will work out...
Poinsettia Bowl...Nevada vs. Boise State
Hawaii Bowl...Hawaii vs. Southern Mississippi
Idaho Famous Potato Bowl...Utah State vs. Ohio
New Orleans Bowl...Louisiana Tech vs. Temple
Utah State needs to win 2 of their remaining three to be bowl eligible. Sagarin has USU a 10 point favorite over Idaho on the road. They are very slim favorite over Nevada at home...1/4 of a point. And they are a 9 point favorite over New Mexico State on the road. They can win all three of their remaining games.
For Conference-USA...For Reference. Again, in order for the Aggies to make a bowl they need to take care of business. It will be easier if Houston makes the BCS, leaving the New Orleans Bowl free to pick La Tech.
BCS Sugar Bowl...Houston
Liberty Bowl...Tulsa
Hawaii Bowl...Southern Mississippi
Armed Forces Bowl...SMU
New Orleans Bowl...(None Eligible)...Lousiana Tech substitutes.
Beef 'O' Bradys Bowl...(None Eligible)...Ball State substitutes.
For Conference USA...UCF, Marshall and East Carolina are one more loss away from not being bowl eligible and UTEP is 5-5. Maybe one of those teams wins out and makes a bowl game. If so, I think that the New Orleans Bowl would still want La Tech ahead of any of them...but we will see what works out.
Neither Southern Utah nor Weber State are eligible for the FCS playoffs. 7 wins are required.
Houston, Boise State and the BCS
Boise State is still ranked higher in the BCS than Houston. BSU is 10 and UH is 11. But you have to be the conference champion to get the #12 automatic bid. BSU is not in the drivers seat in the MWC any longer. TCU is in the drivers seat and Boise State needs to hope that both UNLV and Colorado State can knock off TCU.
BTW...
The Mountain West has another reason to be mad at BYU. TCU tripped up Boise State. The MWC will not have a team in the BCS and may have more bowl eligible teams then they have bowl slots for. Here is the current MWC bowl picture...
Las Vegas...TCU
Poinsettia...Boise State
Independence...Wyoming
New Mexico...San Diego State
Also Eligible...Air Force
Note...Air Force and Wyoming are both at 5 wins. Wyoming has New Mexico, Boise State and Colorado State remaining. Air Force has UNLV and Colorado State remaining. BYU took the Armed Forces Bowl away from the MWC this year. My hunch is, however, that someone will invite Air Force as they have fans everywhere.
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