BYU
Current record..6-3...3 more left to play. Idaho, New Mexico State and @Hawaii
It is all settled except for the formal invitation. BYU will be going to the Armed Forces Bowl. The formal invitation will likely be extended after BYU's last home game against New Mexico State. Their opponent looks to be either SMU or Tulsa. The bowl game is played on SMU's home field. Even though Tulsa appears to be the 3rd place team in C-USA, many predict that SMU will be selected for this bowl because of it's location. It would represent lower travel costs and almost guarantee a sell-out crowd. BYU and SMU have some history, as well. And if rumors about the Big East are to be believed, BYU and SMU might have a future.
Update: The latest projections from ESPN have Southern Mississippi playing against BYU in this game.
Utah
If the Utes win 1 of their final 3, the Utes will be bowl eligible. But to determine which bowl the Utes will go into, we must first look at the current BCS picture.
BCS National Championship...LSU vs Oklahoma State
Rose (PAC-10 vs Big 10)...Stanford vs. Penn State
Fiesta (Big 12 vs At Large)... Oklahoma vs Oregon
Orange (ACC vs At-Large, usually Big East)...Clemson vs Cincinnati
Sugar (SEC vs At Large) Alabama vs Boise State
Here is the current PAC-12 bowl picture.
1. BCS (Probable Rose Bowl)...Stanford Current BCS standing #4
2. Also BCS (Probable Fiesta)...Oregon Current BCS standing #7
3. Alamo...Arizona State
4. Holiday...Washington
5. Sun...Utah*
6. Las Vegas Bowl...California*
7. Kraft Fight Hunger...UCLA*
8. New Mexico...Probably none eligible...Washington State has to win out. The bid goes to the MAC if the PAC-12 is unable to fill this commitment.
*Utah, California and UCLA are not yet bowl eligible.
Utah is 5-4 with UCLA, @Washington State and Colorado remaining
UCLA is 5-4 with @Utah, Colorado and @USC remaining
California is currently 5-4 and has Oregon State, Stanford and Arizona State remaining
Washington State has Arizona State, Utah and @Washington remaining
Not eligible for bowls: USC, Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado
PAC-12 championship game should be Arizona State at Stanford. Oregon appears destined for a BCS-at-large bid no matter the outcome of this game.
Analysis for Utah. They should win 2 of their final 3 if not all three and should end up in the Sun Bowl. If they lose one of their final 3, they should end up in the Kraft Fight Hunger bowl or the Las Vegas Bowl. Utah has the most favorable schedule between the 4 PAC-12 team fighting for bowl eligibility.
Update: The latest projection from ESPN has Utah either playing North Carolina in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl or playing Georgia Tech in the Sun Bowl.
Utah State
Here is the current WAC bowl picture
Hawaii (5-4) needs 2 more wins to be eligible and qualify for the Hawaii bowl. Hawaii plays 13 games and needs to have 7 wins. Hawaii still could win the WAC championship if they win out. Hawaii has @Nevada, Fresno State, Tulane and BYU remaining.
Nevada is currently 5-3 and needs to 1 more game to be bowl eligible. Nevada, needs 2 more wins if one of those wins is against La Tech to win the WAC championship. Remaining games are Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, @Utah State and Idaho
Louisiana Tech can win the WAC championship if they win their remaining conference games and Hawaii loses one of their remaining conference games. La Tech needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Remaining games @Ole Miss, @Nevada and New Mexico State
Utah State is currently 3-5 and must win 3 of their remaining 4 games to be bowl eligible. Those games are San Jose State, @Idaho, Nevada and @ New Mexico State
San Jose State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be bowl eligible. Those games are @ Utah State, Navy and @ Fresno State
Fresno State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be bowl eligible. Fresno State plays a 13 game schedule this year and must finish 7-6 or better. Their remaining games are @ New Mexico State, @ Hawaii, San Jose State and @ San Diego State.
New Mexico State State is currently 3-6 and must win all of their remaining games to be
bowl eligible. New Mexico State plays a 13 game schedule this year and must
finish 7-6 or better. Their remaining games are Fresno State, @BYU, @ Louisiana Tech and Utah State
Analysis on the WAC picture. If things do go right for the WAC, if the right teams do not win out, then the WAC could end up with only 1 or 2 bowl eligible teams. It looks like they will end up with 3 and hopefully 4 bowl eligible teams.
Now, if the bowl eligible teams are Nevada, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii and Utah State; here is how the invitations should work out.
Hawaii...Hawaii
Nevada...Poinsettia
Idaho Famous Potato...?Louisiana Tech?
Utah State...
Utah State won at Hawaii and there is no reason why they can not beat a rebuilding Nevada in Logan. There is no reason why they can not win all 4 of their remaining games. But they lost a couple of other games this season that they should have won. Hopefully, the win at Hawaii will help USU build momentum for their remaining games and provide the late-game confidence they missed earlier this season. Right now, Sagarin has them as a 12 point favorite against San Jose State, an 8 point favorite at Idaho, a 1 point favorite at home vs Nevada and a 9 point favorite at New Mexico State. Wouldn't it be great to just see USU in a bowl game, even if they have to go to Albuquerque or Boise?
Beyond winning their remaining games, there does not seem to be an opening for USU unless other conferences are not able to fill all of their bowl options. The best case scenario for the Aggies is that UCLA can not finish bowl eligible and the Aggies become an option for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. They could hope that either Wyoming or San Diego State can not finish bowl eligible and they can get into the New Mexico Bowl. Or the most likely scenario is that either the GoDaddy.com Bowl, Little Cesar Pizza Bowl or the New Orleans Bowl will have an opening and will want Louisiana Tech allowing USU to go to Boise, the blue turf and the Idaho Famous Potato Bowl. These other bowls are better travel options for La Tech.
I should point out that Jerry Palm at CBSSports.com does not have anyone listed for the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl because he does not believe that there will be enough bowl eligible teams. But he does not list either Utah State nor Louisiana Tech among his bowl eligible teams. Therefore, here is how I believe the WAC bowls will play out.
Hawaii...Hawaii
Nevada...Poinsettia
Idaho Famous Potato...Utah State
Little Caesar's Pizza...Louisiana Tech
No longer bowl eligible.
Idaho
Update: ESPN is showing no love for the Aggies. They are not on a bowl projection. That could change should USU defeat San Jose State and Idaho.
Southern Utah
It's a long shot at best, but if SUU wins their remaining two games, they could get an invite to the FCS playoffs. They would have a 7-4 record with some quality wins. Both games are on the road against Northern Iowa and Northern Arizona. Northern Iowa is the first place team in the MVFC...did I mention that it's a long shot? But if SUU can beat the Panthers, they would have some quality wins under their belt. The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid.
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