Bowl Picture getting clearer.

Mountain West Conference

Bowl Commitments (5): Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, New Mexico and Humanitarian.  Plus an outside chance at a BCS bowl.

Already Bowl Eligible 4:
TCU 10-0--Needs Texas to loose to get to play for the National Championship.  Or needs Florida or Alabama to loose before the SEC championship game.  Of course the Frogs need to take care of business at Wyoming and then at home against winless New Mexico
Utah 8-2
BYU 8-2
Air Force 7-3


Remaining Teams:

San Diego State
4-6
Projected Wins 1: @ UNLV
Projected Losses 1:  @ Utah
Projected Record: 5-7
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 4-8

Wyoming
5-5
Projected Wins: 1 @Colorado State
Projected Losses: 1 TCU
Projected Record: 6-6
Best Case Scenario: 6-6
Worst Case Scenario: 5-7
I project them to the Humanitarian Bowl vs Idaho.  Sounds like nice border battle.  Besides, who else would consider Boise a nice warm bowl destination other than the good folks in Laramie?


Eliminated from Bowl Contention 3:
UNLV, 3-7
Colorado State, 3-7
New Mexico, 0-9

Bottom line for the Mountain West: The conference will not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill all of their commitments should TCU earn a BCS bowl bid, unless San Diego State can pull off an upset in Salt Lake City this week.

WAC
Bowl Commitments: Hawaii, New Mexico, Humanitarian.  Poinsettia if PAC-10 does not have enough bowl eligible teams.

Already Bowl Eligible: 4

-Boise State 10-0
-Idaho 7-4 Should finish 8-4 and get to host the Humanitarian Bowl
-Nevada 7-3
-Fresno State 6-4

Others

Hawaii
4-6
(Plays a 13-game regular season)
Projected Wins 1: @ San Jose State
Projected Losses 2: Navy, Wisconsin
Projected Record: 5-8
Best Case Scenario: 6-7
Worst Case Scenario: 4-9


Eliminated from Bowl Contention 4:
Louisiana Tech  3-7
New Mexico State 3-7
Utah State 3-7
San Jose State 1-8

WAC Bottom Line: The WAC already has it's four bowl-eligible teams.  There will be no others.

More about Boise State:  I do not see them being left out of the BCS if they remain unbeaten.  There are four at-large slots:  TCU should get one of them.  The Florida/Alabama looser will get the other.  Either Iowa or Penn State will get the third.  The only problem scenarios for BSU would be a Pitt win over Cincinnati or Texas loosing in the Big XII title game.  Cincinnati did beat Fresno State earlier.  A Pitt win would weaken Boise's SOS, even though it would put BSU in the top 5 in the polls.  A Pitt win would not keep BSU out, but it would make it more difficult.  So Relax Boise State fans, I think you have a shot a big money bowl.

Big Sky Playoff Scenarios--Brief

-Montana, already has the conference championship.  If they win in Bozeman, they have a shot at either the #1 or #2 overall seed and should host the semi-finals should they make it that far.
-Montana State should get an at large bid if they pull of the upset against their in-state rivals at home on Saturday
-If Montana takes care of their Treasure State rival, Eastern Washington has the inside track at an at-large bid.  They will tie Weber State for second place and have a tie breaker with an impressive win.
-Weber State needs both Montana State to loose against Montana and Eastern Washington to loose against Northern Arizona to even have a shot.  In looking over the FCS standings, it looks like there are only three at-large seats up for grabs this week...but more on that Monday.