Boise State hosts Nevada and their "steamroll express" this Friday. While the Wolfpack are the best shot at ending a perfect regular season for the Broncos, they have already done a lot of damage to Boise State's BCS chances by loosing their first three games this season. In fact, the rest of the WAC has done little to help Boise State. To illustrate, I reverse-"Oreo" what Nevada did in their first three games, by going outside, inside.
Nevada opened with three three losses. The third loss was a 31-21 loss to Missouri, a middle of the pack Big 12 team. Even though it does not look that bad to lose to a middle of the pack Big 12 team, the way that Nevada is playing now, it is a game that the Wolfpack was talented enough to win. And the game took place at MacKay stadium, where the Wolfpack have demolished everyone else. In this game, a bad 4th quarter red-zone fumble led to a Missouri score and was likely the difference in the game. It was the dreaded 14 point turnaround in a ten point game. This knocks the WAC down a notch.
In the first week of the season, Nevada lost big time at Notre Dame. Sure, the Irish were ranked in the top 25 at the time, but now are 6-5 with a road game at Stanford remaining. The Wolfpack gave away the ball three times in that game, but turnovers were not the final difference. Nevada just lost this one.
But the most costly loss for the Wolfpack and the WAC this year was in their second game, a 35-20 loss at Colorado State. That's right, the same Colorado State team that lost it's next eight games. Going into the Nevada battle, the Rams had just escaped by the narrowest of margins from FCS power Weber State. They were exposed and vulnerable and the Wolfpack was completely unprepared to take advantage. The Rams led from kickoff to gun, but the Wolfpack statistically dominated in all categories, including give aways. It was a -5 giveaway ratio in that game which gave the Rams the win. Five Nevada turnovers, zero for Colorado State. Four of those five turnovers led to 28 Colorado State points. Even if none of those give-away drives end in points for Nevada, the final is still a convincing 20-7 win instead of a two touchdown loss.
At of today, Nevada is in first place in the WAC by 1/2 game. They are 7-0 in conference play where Boise State is 6-0. Colorado State is in last place in the MWC, going 0-7 in conference play so far. Which conference is better? As of today, the last place MWC team has a victory over the first place WAC team. Again, this game just looks bad for Nevada and looks bad for the WAC.
If it was not for turnovers in against Missouri and Colorado State, Nevada would be entering Friday's contest at 10-1, ranked in the top 25, with a shot to give Boise State the same sort of lift that TCU got by beating BYU and Utah. But Nevada is still a dangerous team. They got it figured out since that trip to Fort Collins, and have been rolling ever since the Fremont Cannon Game kicked off in week four. They have scored more that 60 in four of their eight wins. 63 against in-state rival UNLV. 70 against bowl-bound Idaho. 62 against San Jose State. 63 against New Mexico State last Saturday. They also scored 52 against bowl-bound Fresno State. The Nevada Wolfpack are scary and if they take care of the ball, they will give Boise State all that they can handle and perhaps more.
Fresno State also had their chance to help Boise State in the Strength of Schedule department. The Bulldogs lost an overtime game at Wisconsin and another close game at #5 Cincinnati. In the Wisconsin game, the Bulldogs committed three turnovers and missed two field goals and could have won that game in regulation. Neither of the interceptions in regulation led to a Wisconsin score, but the second overtime ended with a Fresno State interception...on the first play after Wisconsin had scored the would-be game winning field goal. Fresno State came closer than anyone else to beating Cincinnati this year. In that game, a Fresno State interception, in field goal range, late in the third quarter led to the final Cincinnati touchdown drive. That was a 10/14 point turnaround in an eight point game.
The difference between TCU and BSU this year is their respective conferences. Don't look at the entire conference, just positions two through four as the teams that will occupy those positions are now settled in both conferences. Two through four for the WAC is 5-6 in non-conference games. With a little crisper execution and a cleaner game or four, they could be 9-2. That would have been more impressive than the MWC's 8-4. Out of the four for the Mountain West losses, it is difficult to find a loss where key turnovers were the difference. Utah's loss to Oregon? Nope, Utah was +2 in take aways in that game. BYU's loss to Florida State? Probably not as FSU had the game well in hand before quarterback Max Hall became desperate and generous with the football. The only game out of those four losses where turnovers were the difference was Air Force's loss to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers returned a Falcon fumble the distance in the fourth quarter. It was a seven point victory that opened Minnesota's new stadium. The MWC's two through four would likely be 9-3 at best.
Give-a ways and take-a ways are just one phase of the game. Good teams take away, they do not give away games. Often, the difference between a 10-1 team vs a 8-3 team, like Nevada, is the turnover ratio. It bet with another hour or two, I could find six or seven more teams just like them.
The difference between the WAC and the MWC this year? TCU is the best of the "Big 3" this year. The WAC? It's the same as it was when BYU ruled the conference in the early 80s. It's the "Big 1" and everyone else. Boise State will continue to be the bridesmaid until their conference gets better.
WAC top-4 in Non-Conference Games
Boise State 5-0
Nevada 1-3
Fresno State 1-2 (So far, with a road game against Illinois on December 5th pending)
Idaho 3-1
Total 10-6 (.625). #2 through #4 5-6 (.455) .
Mountain West top-4 in Non-Conference Games
TCU 4-0
BYU 3-1
Utah 3-1
Air Force 2-2
Total 12-4 (.750) #2 through #4 8-4 (.667)
No comments:
Post a Comment