What if...

If BYU remained in the Mountain West Conference, how many games would they have won this year?

To answer that question, we have to determine who would have been the MWC this season.  BYU's departure, most likely opened the door for Hawaii.  First off, if BYU was in still in the MWC, Hawaii is still in the WAC.  Second, who would be BYU's non-conference opponents?  Most of BYU's schedule this season happened BECAUSE of independence.  Only Boise State was on the schedule before independence.  My guess is that BYU would have played USU in Logan.  The 2 for 1 was done because USU needed games due to the diminished WAC and BYU's independence.  Typically in the Bronco Mendenhall era, they play 2 BCS teams...one at home and one on the road.  My hunch is that the non-conference schedule would have been Washington State and Hawaii at home with Utah and Utah State on the road.  Boise State would still be on the schedule, but as a conference game.  They would have played an 8-game conference schedule and for argument sake, I will leave New Mexico off the schedule.  I think it would have looked like this:

A30 Washington State
S8 @ Air Force
S15 @ Utah
S20 BYE
S27 Hawaii
O5 @ Utah State
O13 San Diego State
O20 @ Fresno State
O27 Wyoming
N3 UNLV
N10 @ Colorado State
N17 Nevada
N27 @ Boise State

There is only 2 question marks with the schedule.  Would the Utah State result been different playing USU in Logan?  And would the result at Boise State been different playing them later in the season?  That's hard to say.  Perhaps the result of the Utah game is different considering there is still a conference championship to play for and BYU goes into Salt Lake not emotionally over-prepared.  Let's say the results are the same.  BYU also gets a 7-1 record in conference, goes to the Poinsettia Bowl and beats San Jose State.  Only Fresno State would have been a real challenge.  They still get a 10-win season and many of their problems go forgiven or unexposed because of the weaker conference schedule.

Let's say that BYU get the invite to the Big 12 instead of West Virginia.  Same exercise, who are the non-conference games.  My hunch is that BYU would have played Washington State and Utah State at home with Utah and Notre Dame on the road.  They otherwise would have played West Virginia's schedule in conference.


A30 Washington State
S8 BYE
S15 @ Utah
S20 Baylor
S27 @ Texas
O5 Utah State
O13 @ Texas Tech
O20 Kansas State
O27 @ Notre Dame
N3 TCU
N10 @ Oklahoma State
N17 @ Iowa Sate
N27 Kansas

It can again be argued that the result of the Utah game is different for two reasons, a healthy Riley Nelson and BYU does not have so much riding on the game because they have a conference championship to play for.  The Utah State game may be different because BYU might get beat up at Texas, where this year they had an easy game vs Hawaii before Utah State.  But let's argue that the results of Utah and Utah State are the same because they were actually played.  This year's BYU team only wins three games in the Big 12.  Baylor, @Iowa Sate and Kansas.  This means that BYU would have finished the regular season 5-7 with no bowl game.  The only opportunity to turn that around is maybe you get TCU as a win this year because the game is in Provo and because of the problems with TCU's quarterback this year.  Oklahoma State could be a win if you get them at home.  They might, if they can play at a higher level than they have so far in 2012, come away with a 7-5 record and a possible trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl.  In other words, they would be as good in the Big 12 as Utah has been in the PAC-12.

Here is the point: your conference matters, the level of competition is different.  In the MWC, you could take a week off mentally, make a lot of unforced errors and still win most of your games.  BYU had to get up for Air Force and a couple of other opponents every year, but not the entire schedule.

Finally, I think that that most people appreciate Bronco Mendenhall and what he has done at BYU.  I am not the exception to this.  It should be no secret, however, that if BYU is to continue in independence, or accept a bid to an elite conference, they need to be better than they are right now.  Is Bronco Mendenhall up to the job?  The level of play this year is fine for the MWC, but not for the path BYU wants to trod.

Gordon Monson is thinking the same thing that I am.