Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Big Sky Post-Season Picture for 11/3.

One of the reasons that was given for a 13-team Big Sky Football Conference was to increase the footprint of the conference in the post-season.  Usually, the Big Sky Conference was a 2-3 seed conference.  The Conference is hopeful that they can get 4 or 5 teams in the playoffs this year.

There were a couple of big upsets in the Big Sky this last weekend. This may hurt the hopes that the Big Sky can get 4 teams into the post-season.  Both Cal Poly and Eastern Washington suffered losses last week and they play each-other this week.  Someone will have a 2-game losing streak by Sunday.  This becomes a must-win for both teams.  It should also be a warning to Northern Arizona, who is now in the Big Sky Conference drivers seat.  It is their championship to lose.

The Contenders.

#3/3 Montana State had a very lopsided victory over North Dakota to spring them into the top 4.  They reside at #3 in the GPI as well.  If they are seeded at #3, they have home field until the semi-finals where the altitude and the weather are to their advantage.  They have a couple of trap games left in their schedule.  Remaining schedule: @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana

#8/7 Eastern Washington dropped 8 sports after the upset loss at Southern Utah.  The Eagles do not have a lot of wiggle room.  They are #6 in the GPI.  Their playoff chances may survive a close loss to Cal Poly, but they best not leave anything to chance and take care of business the rest of the way.  Remaining schedule: Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State

#12/12 Northern Arizona.  The Lumberjacks have not been given a lot of love in the polls.  Their last three games have not been convincing enough.  They have Idaho State next where, no matter what, they will not have a convincing enough win to make significant movement in the polls.  GPI, has them at #8.  They simply need to take care of business from here on and win the automatic conference bid.  If they win out, they will do that.  Remaining Schedule: @ Idaho State, Southern Utah, Cal Poly.

#16/16 Cal Poly.  Their playoff chances took a big hit with the upset loss to Sacramento State.  GPI has them at #9 and they have the win at Wyoming to help.  The game at EWU is much more of a must-win game for the Mustangs than it is for the Eagles.  If EWU wins, Cal Poly is on the outside looking in where today they are probably in "last 4 in" territory.  I agree that they are probably not ranked as high as they should be, but they should have also beaten the Hornets.  Remaining schedule:@ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona.

Of Note: Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly and Sacramento State all have wins over the FBS.  Eastern Washington beat Idaho, Northern Arizona beat UNLV, Cal Poly defeated Wyoming and Sacramento State beat Colorado.

Still in Contention

Sacramento State.  The Hornets remain unranked and are not getting all the love from the pollsters that they deserve.  The win against Cal Poly hurt the Mustangs more than it helped the Hornets.  They will probably get the 7 wins to qualify, but need some serious help to make the playoffs.  They can help their own chances a ton when they entertain Montana State this weekend.  Remaining schedule: Montana State, bye, UC Davis.

Everyone else has no chance at the post-season.

Power Rankings:

1.  Northern Arizona
2.  Montana State
3.  Cal Poly
4.  Eastern Washington
5.  Sacramento State
6.  Southern Utah
7.  Portland State
8.  UC Davis
9.  Montana
10. North Dakota
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State

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