One of the reasons why Doug Fullerton said the Big Sky Conference became a 13-team conference was to go from being a 2-3 playoff bid conference to being a 3-4 playoff bid conference. If the playoffs were held today, there would be a good chance that 3 teams would be invited to the playoffs with the 4th a good possibility.
The Contenders
#2/2 Montana State (6-0). The 6-0 Bobcats are cruising through the schedule right now. They host 5-1 #6/6 Eastern Washington in Bozeman this week. If the Eagles win, the result could flip the Bobcats and the Eagles in the rankings. A loss will not dramatically hurt either team's playoff chances as long as they otherwise stay the course. Remaining Home Games: Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Portland State. Remaining Road Games: Sacramento State, Montana
#6/6 Eastern Washington (4-1). The Eagles really took care of the Fighting Sioux last week and are breathing down the necks of the Bobcats to begin the playoffs in the top 4, which means they would host a game after a week off against a team that did not get a week off. A loss against the Bobcats may not drop the Eagles so far that they ruin their chances to host a second-round game. Remaining home games: Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis. Remaining road games: Montana State, Southern Utah, and Portland State
#14/15 Cal Poly (5-0). The Mustangs took care of business in Ogden and are now likely in the "last 4 in" spot. They probably will move up if they win all of their remaining games. They have a big date against Eastern Washington looming, and the season finale at Northern Arizona looms big as well, right now. Otherwise, the schedule looks friendly. This is where they may end up if they win the games that they should. Take care of business against the other 4 opponents, and they should be in the post-season. Remaining road games: Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. Remaining home games: Northern Colorado, Portland State, and Idaho State.
#18/16 Northern Arizona (4-1). The Lumberjacks are opposite of Cal Poly right now. They likely sit in the "first 4 out" position right now. They have a favorable schedule and should things work out; the game against Cal Poly in Flagstaff to end the season will be huge. If they win the other 5 games, their chances of making the playoffs look good because teams ahead of them right now will lose. Remaining home games: UC Davis, Southern Utah, Cal Poly. Remaining Road Games: North Dakota, Northern Colorado and Idaho State.
Technically Still in Contention
Sacramento State (4-2). With some help the Hornets could still win the conference, and they might barely win enough games to qualify for an at-large bid. Will 7 wins be enough? As far as playoff contention is concerned, the loss to New Mexico State now hurts a lot more than the win at Colorado helps. Even though they are both FBS schools, neither is very strong. If the Buffaloes were in the Big Sky Conference, they would likely be 5th to 7th in the standings. If NMSU was in the Big Sky, they would be close to the bottom. Of course, if you look at the schedule, the Hornets could really help their playoff chances if they win enough games to qualify. They have to beat either Montana State, Eastern Washington or Cal-Poly to get to 7 wins. Remaining home games: Weber State, Cal Poly, Montana State. Remaining road games: Eastern Washington, UC Davis.
Chances are fading, but all is not lost.
Montana and North Dakota are both 3-3 and 1-2 in conference. They are not really out of the conference race and have a little room for error in to qualify for an at-large bid with 7 wins. They really need to step things up and win some games, because the season is fading fast. They both can't win out, because they play each-other in 2 Saturdays.
Chances are fading even faster, but hope remains.
Portland State, Southern Utah and UC Davis are all at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in conference. They are not out of the conference race, but if they lose one more game, they will not qualify for an at-large bid and they will likely be out of the conference race for good.
Completely out of contention
Next season has already began for Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. North Dakota
7. Sacramento State
8. UC Davis
9. Southern Utah
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
No comments:
Post a Comment