If Bronco Mendenall Were to Leave BYU after This Seaon...

If Bronco Mendenhall were to leave BYU after this season, here is the likely short list of candidates to replace him.

Ed Lamb, Head Coach, Southern Utah University
Ken Nuimatalolo, Head Coach, US Naval Academy
Darrell Bevel, Offensive Coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
Kalani Sitake, Defensive Coordinator, University of Utah and BYU Alum
Andy Ludwig, San Diego State Offensive Coordinator
Steve Kafusi, Current Defensive Line Coach
Paul Tidwell, Current Linebackers Coach


Names left off the list because there is little chance any would come to BYU or little chance they could be successful right away.

Andy Reid, HC Philadelphia Eagles, BYU Alum
Kyle Whittingham, HC Utah, BYU Alum
Gary Anderson, HC Utah State, Rick's College Alum
Ty Detmer, Current High School Coach in Texas, BYU Alum

Breaking down Bronco Mendenhall's record as of post 10/13 loss vs. Oregon State

70-26 (.729) Overall
11-13 (.458) vs BCS Opponents (Includes 2 losses to Utah in 2011 and 2012)
3-5 (.375) vs Utah
2-5 (.286) vs TCU
54-6 (.900) vs Everyone Else

The 6 losses to non-BCS, and non-Utah/TCU?

Boise State 2012 
Air Force 2010
Nevada 2010  
Utah State 2010 
Tulsa 2007
San Diego State 2005
Only Utah State in 2010 and San Diego State in 2005 finished with losing records.

Bronco Mendenhall has never lost to Colorado State, Central Florida, Idaho, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Hawaii, UNLV, San Jose State, Tulane, UTEP, Washington nor Wyoming.  He has only one loss to Air Force, Utah State, Tulsa and San Diego State whom he has played more than once.  He has never lost to an FCS opponent.  He has never beaten Boston College, Florida State nor Nevada.  Bronco has yet to lose a bowl game to a non-BCS team.

The 11 wins vs. BCS Opposition

Washington State 2012 (2-5 so far in 2012)
Ole Miss 2011 (2-10 in 2011)
Oregon State 2011  (3-9 in 2011)
Washington 2010 (7-6 in 2011)
Oklahoma 2009 (8-5 in 2009)
Oregon State 2009 Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2009)
Washington 2008 (0-12 in 2008)
UCLA 2008 (4-8 in 2008)
Arizona 2007 (5-7 in 2007)
UCLA 2007 Las Vegas Bowl (6-7 in 2007)
Oregon 2006 Las Vegas Bowl (7-6 in 2006)

5 of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records.  3 wins were in bowl games.  Bronco has beaten 2 BCS-level teams that finished with a winning record.  Washington in 2012 in Provo and Oklahoma in 2009 at a neutral field.

13 losses to BCS Opposition

2012 vs. Oregon State (Oregon State is 6-0 so far in 2012)
2012 vs. Utah (Utah is 2-4 so far in 2012)
2011 vs. Texas (8-5 in 2011)
2011 vs. Utah (8-5 in 2011)
2010 vs. Florida State (10-4 in 2010)
2009 vs. Florida State (7-6 in 2009)
2008 vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2008)
2007 vs. UCLA (6-7 in 2007)
2006 vs. Arizona (6-6 in 2006)
2006 vs. Boston College (10-3 in 2006)
2005 vs. California in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-4 in 2005)
2005 vs. Notre Dame (9-3 in 2005)
2005 vs. Boston College (9-3 in 2005)

2 of the 13 losses came to teams with losing records.  1 against a .500 team.  1 loss to a sub .500 team was at home and one was on the road.

Bronco Mendenhall vs. BCS (Assuming Utah finishes below .500 this year and Oregon State finishes above .500)

3-2 vs BCS in Bowl Games
2-10 vs BCS teams that finished with winning records
0-1 vs. BCS teams at .500
6-2 vs. BCS teams below .500

If this pattern holds, BYU will lose to Notre Dame as they are above .500, beat Georgia Tech as they are below .500, beat Idaho, beat to San Jose State and beat New Mexico State.  They will win the bowl game because it is not against a BCS team.  And will finish the season 9-4.

Usually coaches that finish with winning records keep their jobs, unless they perform poorly against rivals or the progress of the program stagnates.

If Bronco stays at BYU, you will likely see them win 6-9 games in the regular season depending on the caliber of teams they play.  It is unlikely that you will see Bronco's teams ever go undefeated and earn a spot in one of the big bowl games.  If BYU were in a BCS-caliber conference, you would see them win 4-7 games every season, but never win a conference championship.  The question for BYU and it's fans...are you OK with this level of performance or do you want better?  Can one of the six men lead the team to something better?  More on this to come in future blogs.