Improvement at BYU, Bronco beating his own record.

 I have a hunch that Bronco Mendenhall knows that BYU needs to get better.  The first two years of independence have been frustrating to the fans and another season of almost victories will probably put Mendendall firmly in the hot seat.  However, Bronco has been Bronco all along.  He had a relapse, or a bad season, in the 2010 season, but recovered.  He has been as good in 2011 and 2012 as he was in 2006-2009, but the competition has been stronger.  This year, Utah State is better and BYU has replaced games against UNLV and Wyoming with games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.  And will be even more so going forward.  I have written several articles about BYU and the success under the Mendenhall era.  Here is the benchmark that needs to be improved upon.

What Bronco does well.

1.  Wins against non-bowl eligible BCS teams.  This years loss to Utah may stand as the only loss against this group. 

2.  Vs. average/poor non-BCS teams.  You can count on one hand the number of times BYU has lost these games.

Losses against this group:

2010, Utah State
2005, San Diego State


Where BYU needs to improve.

1.  Vs. Bowl-eligible BCS competition which now includes Utah and TCU.  Mendenhall's teams have won only about 20% of these games.  Not counting bowl games, Bronco's teams have won against this level of competition only three times.  2007 vs. Arizona (Arizona finished 6-6 and did not go to a bowl game that year), 2009 vs. Oklahoma and 2010 vs. Washington.  I think the next step, beginning in 2013, is to move up to 50% vs this level of competition.  It is likely that Georgia Tech, regardless of the BYU outcome, will not be bowl-eligible this year.  BYU has no more opportunities, therefore, has to show that they can win these game this year. This season, Bronco is 0-3 (not including Utah at this point, as they are currently below .500).  This represents the bulk of Bronco Mendenhall's losses at BYU.

2.  Vs. Ranked/Quality non-BCS teams (finished with 9 or more wins). This includes Utah and TCU when they were part of the MWC.  BYU is 1-1 against this group in 2012.  No other chances against this level of competition this season.  BYU has won about 1/3 of these games.  (7-12 record.).  The goal for 2013 should be to win half of these games.

Noteable wins against this group.
2012, Utah State
2010, San Diego State
All wins against TCU and Utah.

Here are some notable losses
2012, Boise State
2010, Air Force
2010, Nevada (They were not ranked at the time, but finished the season at #11.)
2007, Tulsa
All losses against TCU and losses against Utah when they were members of the MWC.

Bronco's Record vs TCU as members of the MWC
2-5

Bronco's Record vs Utah
3-3 while Utah was in the MWC
0-2 while Utah since Utah joined the PAC-12 (Not part of this group.)

In short, Bronco's Record, or the Bronco Pattern.

Vs. Bowl Eligible BCS Teams 20%
Vs. Other BCS teams 80%
Vs. Quality non-BCS teams 33%
Vs. Other non-BCS teams 90%

BYU's probable 2013 schedule, based upon these groups

Bowl-eligible BCS (20% chance of victory)
Texas
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
Utah (assuming that Utah is better)

Other BCS (80% chance of victory)
Washington State
Georgia Tech (Assuming Ga Tech fires their coach and is rebuilding in 2013).

Quality non-BCS (33% chance of victory)
Boise State
Utah State

Other non-BCS (90% chance of victory)
Houston
Middle Tennessee
Hawaii
(Unnamed 12th opponent, likely New Mexico State)

BYU's best-case scenario 2013, given the "Bronco Pattern" 7-5...BYU is due for a win against an elite program.  Last win was 2010 vs Washington who finished 6-6 in the regular season and then won the Holiday Bowl to finish 7-6.

BYU's worst-case scenario for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 5-7...BYU is due for a loss against a lesser program.  Last loss was 2010 vs Utah State.  But they have 3 more chances to loose against this level of competition in the regular season in 2012.

Because BYU beat Utah State in 2012, they should lose to both Boise State and Utah State in 2013.

Because BYU lost to Utah in 2012, they should beat both Georgia Tech and Washington State in 2013.

BYU's most-likely outcome for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 6-6

For 2013, 5-7 wins would be Bronco as usual.  8 would be an improvement, even if BYU wins 9 this year.  4 or less would be getting worse.

I have one more thing to say in conclusion.  BYU's record this year is reflective of one fact.  In 3 of the 4 losses, the team made 1 too many mistakes.  That is the reality of the situation.  You can get away with mistakes against the likes of San Diego State and Wyoming that will cost games against Boise State and Notre Dame.  That is the reality of independence for BYU and their fans.  They mainly need to wake up to the fact that the schedule is tougher and clean up the errors.  If they do this, the team will progress.