Is the Seat Really that Hot for...

In order of most at risk to most safe, here is where I think Utah's five college football coaches stand.

1.  Jody Sears. 95-100% chance he will not be back in 2013.  Jody Sears took a job that no one in their right mind would want.  John L. Smith came in, fired all of Ron McBride's assistants.  Hired back 3 of them.  Sears was hired when?  During spring practice.  He never had a hand in recruiting any kid that is currently playing football at Weber State.  In most situations, the incoming coach has recruiting the incoming freshmen and JC transfers.  He is not equipped to be successful and that is the main reason why WSU is currently 0-7.  The only reason for him to come back is to see what he will do when he has his own class and a spring training under his belt.  The current members of the team don't believe in him.

Personally, I think that Bovee made a mistake to name Sears as Interim Head Coach.  He also made the mistake of hiring Smith in the first place.  He should have picked one of the assistants that Smith decided to keep, like Colton Swann.  That would have been viewed by the players as the AD is concerned about the players and the stake they have in the program.  He should be on the hot seat as well.  If Sears goes, so should Bovee. 

2.  Kyle Whittingham: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013.  People understand that there is a big transition between the MWC and the PAC-12.  It is obvious right now.  But there are questions as to why Utah has seemed to improve in year 2.  The reason is that the rest of the conference, particularly Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA are light years better than last year, where Utah only made incremental improvements.  Part of the problem is the quarterback situation.  It was obvious last year there was a serious problem.  There was no credible backup to Jordan Wynn.  That situation does not correct itself in one season.  There are expectations that things will be better next season, but it is best to expect gradual and incremental improvements.  I suspect if that minimum of incremental improvements is not met next season that Kyle will be asked to leave.  I do not want to see Dr. Hill wreck the football program the same way that the basketball program has been ruined.

3.  Bronco Mendenhall: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013.   BYU is going through the same growing pains that Utah is, except for one difference.  How many 4-star quarterbacks has BYU been through in the last 4 years?  Jake Heaps transferred to Kansas.  Brad Sorensen to Southern Utah.  James Lark and Jason Munns have been sitting on the bench for 4 years.  While Riley Nelson continues to play like a freshman.  People like Bronco, but he will have to find an offensive coordinator who can develop the offense as well as players.  Because he has been head and shoulders ahead of his predecessor, and because he is so aligned with the vision of the University, he has just as long of a life as Whittingham to prove himself, perhaps even longer.  The more his offenses look like this year's offense, the hotter his seat will get.  It takes both offense and defense to win games.  I do not expect to see Bronco be forced out in Provo for at least 3 years if things do not improve.  But, Bronco might recognize his predicament and take himself out of the picture.  If he does not believe he can do the job, he will leave on his own.

Incremental improvements would be nice at BYU as well, not a sudden or a quick turnaround.  How to measure that would be difficult.  BYU is better than they were in 2010, but not as good as they were in 2011.  Their defense is pretty good, but the offense has sputtered.

4.  Ed Lamb: 1-5% chance he will not be back in 2013.  SUU resides in the smallest market in all of Division I football, and I challenge anyone to prove otherwise.  It may be almost impossible to succeed there.  That I why I admire the job that Ed Lamb has done at Southern Utah.  He deserves and should get the chance to coach somewhere bigger, and I suspect that someday, he will.

5.  Gary Anderson: 0% chance he will not be back in 2013.  He just signed a contract extension.  He is getting paid a lot for a non-AQ head coach.  He may take a job somewhere else, but where would he go?  I don't know they guy personally.  But I don't see him leaving for just any school that could double his salary.  In fact, I think that there is only one job that Gary Anderson would leave Utah State for right now.  That job is in Salt Lake City.