Two years ago, the University of Montana spurned the WAC and a chance to move up to the Football Bowl Subdivision. At the time, they expressed concern that the higher revenue in the FBS would not make up the cost of the additional scholarships and the additional Women's sports teams. In reality, there was probably concern about the stability of the Western Athletic Conference. There were also concerns that Montana State would have needed to make the move with Montana.
The concern about the WAC was not unfounded. After 2013, the WAC will no longer sponsor football as a conference and is struggling to rebuild as a non-football conference, like the Big West. The first question to answer is this: Did Montana's choice doom the WAC?
When the WAC approached six other Big Sky Schools about joining after Montana said no. Each of these schools (we do not know for certain who they were, but I believe Portland State, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State, UC Davis, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona were the likely targets) also spurned the WAC. These schools seemed to follow Montana's lead. It is logical that some of these six schools would have followed Montana to the WAC had they chosen differently. It is also possible that schools outside of the Big Sky Conference like Missouri State, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State or Lamar would have followed Montana into the WAC. With stability, the WAC could have kept Texas State and UT San Antonio. Montana's choice was probably the beginning of the end of WAC football.
Second question, would Montana have been better off in the WAC than in the Big Sky? Certainly football would have brought in more money, but sports would have been more expensive. There are other questions, would the move to the FBS brought more money to Basketball? Would the greater exposure at the FBS level made recruiting LESS expensive? We probably will not be able to answer these questions for certain. However, if the FCS is really a better place to be, why are Idaho and New Mexico State fighting reclassification?
Third question, is the door closed for Montana to move to the FBS? Let's answer that question with another question. Does the Mountain West Conference like Montana? And let's answer that question with yet another question. What is the big problem the Mountain West have right now? It has to be TV revenue and exposure. If it were not for this problem, wouldn't Boise State, BYU and San Diego State still be in the MWC? How is the MWC going to fight this problem. If they expand again, they need to go with schools that are in big markets, even if the football program is a few years away from competing. The probably means that Missoula and Montana are not on the MW radar right now.
Here is a look at the Big Sky Conference and the TV markets they represent.
1. Sacramento, CA (Sacramento State and UC Davis)...2,600,000. Closest FBS School, California (Berkeley) 75 miles.
2. Portland, OR (Portland State)...2,260,000. Closest FBS School, Oregon State (Corvallis) 81 miles.
3. Spokane, WA (Eastern Washington)...614,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 64 miles.
4. Ogden, UT (Weber State)...547,000. Closest FBS School, Utah (Salt Lake City) 40 miles.
5. Missoula, MT (Montana)...110,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 250 miles.
6. Grand Forks, ND (North Dakota) 98,000. Closest FBS School, Minnesota (Minneapolis) 314 miles.
7. Greeley, CO (Northern Colorado)...92,000. Closest FBS School, Colorado State (Fort Collins) 32 miles.
8. Pocatello, ID (Idaho State)...90,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 105 miles.
9. Bozeman, MT (Montana State)...89,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 350 miles.
10. Flagstaff, AZ (Northern Arizona)...60,000. Closest FBS School, Arizona State (Tempe) 135 miles.
11. San Louis Obispo, CA (Cal Poly)...45,000. Closest FBS School, Fresno State (Fresno) 130 miles.
12. Cedar City, UT (Southern Utah) 29,000. Closest FBS School, UNLV (Las Vegas) 174 miles
I know all of the caviats and counter arguments. I know that Cal Poly is the only Division I school in the Central Coast, and that area represents over 3 million people. I know that Montana brings in fans from all over the state. I know that Montana State alumni and Montana alumni are all over the west, there is even an Montana alum in my LDS ward here in Ogden. I know that Portland is filled with Oregon, Oregon State and Washington alumni. Etc. They are not lost on me.
There is no more fighting for BCS AQ status after 2013, it does not exist anymore. The success that a program like Montana has had in recent seasons will not help the MWC get what no longer exists. But adding Portland State and their market may help the MWC get a better TV deal, even if the Vikings are cellar dwellers for a few years.
Right now, the conventional wisdom is that the MWC is holding two spots open for Boise State and San Diego state to return IF the Big East fails. (The Big East will likely fail if it can't hold on to Louisville and others and if it can't lure BYU out of independence.) But if that happens, SMU, Houston, Memphis and Central Florida are also looking for a home, and Conference USA has not left the light on for them. It is possible that a new conference will coalesce from the ashes of the Big East and where will that conference go to fill out?
If the MWC can't improve it's TV revenue, it could end up suffering the same fate as the WAC. They will lose their big market programs beginning with Fresno State or Air Force. Then why wouldn't Nevada, UNLV and Hawaii follow suit. Maybe even New Mexico and San Jose State will go. The conference will be left with just a few micro-market schools like Utah State, Wyoming and Colorado State to scratch the dregs of the college football world for loose change. The perfect conference for Idaho and New Mexico State to feel right at home. That version of the MWC will be no more attractive to Montana than the WAC was 2 years ago. The MW needs a bigger market than Missoula to save it from this fate. If it has to go to the FCS for new members, it needs markets like Portland and Sacramento.
It is likely that Montana will never get another chance to move to the FBS, unless 2 million people move to Western Montana. But who want THAT? There is a certain charm about the emptiness of the Treasure State. (The postal code for Montana is MT (empty)). People move there and visit to get away from the city. Of course, two years ago, who would have believed that the College Football world would have moved to a playoff. The regents at the Montana University System can't completely be blamed for this. Of course, back in 2010, people thought that Montana would get another crack at the FBS if they spurned the WAC. But there is no reason to sit back and regret what has happened. The Grizzlies should go on and win more championships and keep being the way that they are and have been.
As for the MW? The likely targets should the give up on Boise State and San Diego State coming back are in Texas. My money now is on UTEP and UTSA.
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