Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Big Sky Post-Season Outlook for 10/17

The main justification in expanding the Big Sky Football Conference to 13 members was to get greater representation in the FCS playoffs.  So far, the plan seems to be working as 4 BSC members are are on the inside of the bubble right now.

The Contenders

#1/1 Eastern Washington was propelled to the top spot in the land in both polls after a victory over Montana State in Bozeman.  The Eagles hold the number 2 spot in the GPI Power Rankings, the FCS semi-equivelent of the the BCS poll.  The Eagles are in a 2-way tie with Cal Poly for the conference race.  That could be settled on November 3rd on the red turf.  Remaining schedule: Sacramento State, @Southern Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State.

#5/5 Montana State was hurt a little by the loss to Eastern Washington.  The Bobcats hold the number 5 spot in the GPI rankings.  That is not all that bad.  It does mean a 1st round bye and a 2nd round home game.  The main difference is that the opposition also has a week off.  The goal is to get to the #4 position and one of the teams currently ahead of them should lose before the end of the season.  They are behind the 8-ball for the automatic bid.  EWU and Cal Poly both have a win over an FCS team.  Remaining schedule: bye, North Dakota, @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana

#12/14 Cal Poly again takes care of business against a weaker conference foe, but the whole season will not be a cakewalk for the Mustangs.  Currently, they have a GPI of 4.  Ahead of Montana State and behind EWU.  They have a couple of chances to impress the pollsters later in the season.  Remaining schedule: Portland State, @ Sacramento State, @ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona

#15/16 Northern Arizona is much higher in the GPI, where they reside at #7.  That is good enough to get a 2nd round home game.  Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Big Sky Conference with 4 2nd round home teams.  That would be a feather in Doug Fullerton's cap.  The Lumberjacks do not have a lot of chances to impress the pollsters, other than to run the table, and then be ready for Cal Poly.  Remaining schedule: UC Davis, @ Northern Colorado, @ Idaho State Southern Utah, Cal Poly.

Also still in the running

Sacramento State is not ranked in either poll right now.  They are not in the top 25 of the GPI either.  But they have their chances to make impressions before the end of the season.  They have @ Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Montana State and UC Davis left to play.  If they win 2 of the next 3, their playoff chances are good.

Mathematically Still in the Race

Southern Utah can still qualify for the post-season if they win all 4 remaining games.  They have Weber State, Eastern Washington, @ North Dakota and @ Northern Arizona left and they finish the season a week early.

UC Davis can also qualify for an at-large bid if they win all of their remaining games.  They have @ Northern Arizona, Portland State, bye, @ Eastern Washington and @ Sacramento State left to play.

Not in post-season contention:

There will be no post-season this year for Portland State, Montana, North Dakota, Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado

Power Rankings

1.  Eastern Washington
2.  Cal Poly
3.  Northern Arizona
4.  Montana State
5.  Sacramento State
6.  Southern Utah
7.  UC Davis
8.  Montana
9.  North Dakota
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State

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