Utah's post season chances

After starting the conference season with two consecutive losses, the Utes find themselves in a quandry.  Will they win enough games to qualify for even the New Mexico Bowl?  Chances are not looking good at the moment.  Here is Utah's remaining opponents from strongest to weakest and the Sagarin predictor.

Utah's predictor is 73.85.  Home field add 2.62 to the score

@ Oregon State 79.31 (Predicts a 8-point OSU win)
Arizona 77.72 (Predicts a 1 point UofA win)
@UCLA 77.15 (Predicts a 6-point UCLA win)
@Washington 73.90 (Predicts 3-point UW win)
California 75.29 (Predicts a 1-point Utah win)
Washington State 63.02 (Predicts a 12-point Utah win)
@ Colorado 53.51 (Predicts a 17-point Utah win)

Therefore, the computer thinks that Utah is going to finish 6-6.  The key game to the rest of Utah's season is the home match to California, if the Utes do not otherwise pull off an upset.  They are certainly capable of that, even with the current QB situation.  Here's why...

BYU's Sagarin predictor is 83.03.  The Cougars should have beaten Utah by a touchdown.  But we all know that did not happen.  Certainly, the Utes are capable of winning every game on this schedule even with John Hays at quarterback.

Now, as for which bowl they will go to.  The Utes, if they finish 6-6 will likely be the last PAC-12 team to be bowl eligible.

Here is the way it could work out.

Oregon--Rose vs. Northwestern (I kid not)
ASU--Fiesta vs. West Virginia
USC--Alamo vs. Texas
Stanford--Holiday vs. TCU
OSU--Sun vs. Duke (I am also serious here)
UCLA--Las Vegas vs. Boise State
Washington--Kraft FH vs. San Jose State (Substitute for Navy)
Utah--New Mexico vs. Air Force

I am assuming that Arizona and California are not going to finish the season  bowl eligible.  It appears that the Wildcats only have two winnable games left on their schedule.  Utah would be a good choice for LV for ticket sales between Utah, UCLA and Washington.  Too bad the game will likely be against Boise State.  Let's hope the Broncos make the BCS.  Maybe if BSU is in the LV Bowl, they will chose UCLA for the better match-up leaving Utah to play an old MWC rival in Albuquerque, namely Air Force who appears in that slot right now.  Either way, the KFHB will prefer either UCLA or Washington ahead of Utah for ticket sales.


PAC-12 Power Rankings

1.  Oregon
2.  USC
3.  Stanford
4.  Arizona State
5.  Oregon State
6.  UCLA
7.  Washington
8.  Arizona
9.  Utah
10. California
11. Washington State
12. Colorado

BTW--BCS picks

Championship--Alabama vs. Florida...sorry.
Rose--Oregon vs. Northwestern
Fiesta--Arizona State vs. West Virginia
Sugar--Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati
Orange--Florida State vs. Kansas State