One of the reasons that was given for a 13-team Big Sky Football Conference was to increase the footprint of the conference in the post-season. Usually, the Big Sky Conference was a 2-3 seed conference. The Conference is hopeful that they can get 4 or 5 teams in the playoffs this year.
There were a couple of big upsets in the Big Sky this last weekend. This may hurt the hopes that the Big Sky can get 4 teams into the post-season. Both Cal Poly and Eastern Washington suffered losses last week and they play each-other this week. Someone will have a 2-game losing streak by Sunday. This becomes a must-win for both teams. It should also be a warning to Northern Arizona, who is now in the Big Sky Conference drivers seat. It is their championship to lose.
The Contenders.
#3/3 Montana State had a very lopsided victory over North Dakota to spring them into the top 4. They reside at #3 in the GPI as well. If they are seeded at #3, they have home field until the semi-finals where the altitude and the weather are to their advantage. They have a couple of trap games left in their schedule. Remaining schedule: @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana
#8/7 Eastern Washington dropped 8 sports after the upset loss at Southern Utah. The Eagles do not have a lot of wiggle room. They are #6 in the GPI. Their playoff chances may survive a close loss to Cal Poly, but they best not leave anything to chance and take care of business the rest of the way. Remaining schedule: Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State
#12/12 Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have not been given a lot of love in the polls. Their last three games have not been convincing enough. They have Idaho State next where, no matter what, they will not have a convincing enough win to make significant movement in the polls. GPI, has them at #8. They simply need to take care of business from here on and win the automatic conference bid. If they win out, they will do that. Remaining Schedule: @ Idaho State, Southern Utah, Cal Poly.
#16/16 Cal Poly. Their playoff chances took a big hit with the upset loss to Sacramento State. GPI has them at #9 and they have the win at Wyoming to help. The game at EWU is much more of a must-win game for the Mustangs than it is for the Eagles. If EWU wins, Cal Poly is on the outside looking in where today they are probably in "last 4 in" territory. I agree that they are probably not ranked as high as they should be, but they should have also beaten the Hornets. Remaining schedule:@ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona.
Of Note: Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona, Cal Poly and Sacramento State all have wins over the FBS. Eastern Washington beat Idaho, Northern Arizona beat UNLV, Cal Poly defeated Wyoming and Sacramento State beat Colorado.
Still in Contention
Sacramento State. The Hornets remain unranked and are not getting all the love from the pollsters that they deserve. The win against Cal Poly hurt the Mustangs more than it helped the Hornets. They will probably get the 7 wins to qualify, but need some serious help to make the playoffs. They can help their own chances a ton when they entertain Montana State this weekend. Remaining schedule: Montana State, bye, UC Davis.
Everyone else has no chance at the post-season.
Power Rankings:
1. Northern Arizona
2. Montana State
3. Cal Poly
4. Eastern Washington
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. Portland State
8. UC Davis
9. Montana
10. North Dakota
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Is BYU's Season a Success?
KSL asked the question this year, would BYU fans consider an 8-4 regular season a success? In my opinion, I think that most would not consider the 2012 campaign a success. BYU was on the short end of 3 close games and was victorious in only 1. In the minds of many, BYU should have finished the 2012 season with a 10-2 or 11-1 record.
Looking back, here is what could have turned around the BYU season.
Utah.
I spite of the missed field goals at the end of the game, this game was lost in the 3rd quarter. BYU's second 3rd quarter drive ended in an interception which was turned into a Utah Field Goal. The next drive ended with a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The next drive lost 19 yards and ended with a punt that gave the Utes good field position, which they immediately turned into their other touchdown. Without those 17 points by Utah, there would have been no need for the late-game dramatics. BYU probably would have escaped with a 21-7 win. After the fumble was returned for a touchdown was where the coaching staff failed. Something should have been done to calm down the shell-shocked offensive line.
Boise State
When BYU finally scored, the coaching staff could have kicked the extra point and tied the score instead of going for a 2-point conversion to win the game. I don't know if BYU could have won on the road in overtime, but there would have been no second guessing the coaching staff. Boise failed to score However, if they would have made the 2-point conversion, what a conversation piece that would have been.
Also of note, Boise State scored their only touchdown when Riley Nelson forced a pass into coverage.
Notre Dame
None of BYU's turnovers turned into scores. BYU missed a field goal and quarterback Riley Nelson missed a wide-open Cody Hoffman on what could have been a game breaking touchdown score.
Oregon State
This was a very close game until the beginning of the 4th quarter when the Beavers blew the game open. Mistakes were made early in the game. It could have been a different game if BYU had been able to take the lead early in the game.
Here is where BYU has to improve on in 2013.
1. Quarterback Play. Riley Nelson has a tendency to force the ball downfield when nothing is open. This has killed scoring opportunities and in some cases, led to scoring opportunities for the opposition. This was THE difference in at least one game in 2012. BYU is more likely to win when the quarterback throws the ball. Steve Young himself said that a quarterback will not win the game by letting the defense hit him. When the quarterback runs, he should avoid contact. This will help minimize injury. Quarterbacks are usually not built to get the extra 2 or 3 yards. The only time to fight for the extra yards is on 3rd down.
2. Offesnive line play. The 2013 starting quarterback has have time to throw the ball. Better blocking will also lead to more yards on the ground. A stronger passing game will open up opportunities for yards by the running backs. That is the definition of how the West Coast Offense should work.
3. Clock and game management. Need to work on saving time outs for late in the game. The Boise State decision could have been viewed differently if BYU had time outs to use after they kicked the ball back to Boise State. With 3 time outs, they could have got the ball back. There were some other times when game management was glaring, particularly the Notre Dame Game.
4. Kicking Field Goals. Need to improve success on field goal attempts.
It would be nice if the BYU defense could be 80% of how good they are this year. It would be even better if they could duplicate this year's success.
Bronco Mendenhall Year by Year...
2012
Best Win, Utah State. At best, the Aggies will finish the season with 11 wins, a conference championship and a national ranking. At worst, USU will finish with 9 wins. USU is a good team this year and even though the games was ugly, a good win for the Cougars.
Worst Loss, Utah. The Utes will struggle to achieve bowl eligibility. It seem that at best, after the bowls, the Utes will be 7-6. This is a game that BYU should have won.
2011
Best Win, Utah State. The Aggies were, in 2011, the only bowl-eligible team the Cougars defeated in 2011.
Worst Loss, Utah. The Utes beat the Cougars badly due to BYU's errors. The Utes barely become bowl eligible and struggled throughout the season.
2010
Best Win, San Diego State. The Aztecs had the best record of all the teams that BYU defeated in 2010.
Worst Loss, Utah State. In 2010, the Aggies had the worst record of all the teams that BYU lost to.
2009
Best Win, Oklahoma. The Sooners finished 8-5, but were ranked in the top 10 when BYU bested them.
Worst Loss, Florida State. The Seminoles barely finished the season bowl-eligible. This was a lopsided loss at home. Could turn out to be the worst loss of Bronco Mendenhall's tenure. There was no shame in BYU's other 2009 loss, but this one was bad.
2008
Best Win, Air Force. The Falcons were the only FBS team with a winning record that BYU defeated in 2008.
Worst Loss, TCU. There was no shame in losing to TCU in 2008, however.
2007
Best Win, Utah. Austin Collie was living right in this one.
Worst Loss, Tulsa. When your team scores 47 points, you should win.
2006
Best Win, TCU. The Horned Frogs were in the top 25 all season.
Worst Loss, Arizona. The Wildcats finished 6-6 and were not invited to a bowl. This one cost BYU a chance at a BCS bowl.
2005
Best win, Colorado State. 2005 was Sunny Lubick's last good season at CSU.
Worst Loss, San Diego State. 4 of the other 5 teams BYU lost to in 2005 finished the season ranked. Utah finished with a winning record. This was the only team with a sub .500 record that BYU lost to this season.
Looking back, here is what could have turned around the BYU season.
Utah.
I spite of the missed field goals at the end of the game, this game was lost in the 3rd quarter. BYU's second 3rd quarter drive ended in an interception which was turned into a Utah Field Goal. The next drive ended with a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. The next drive lost 19 yards and ended with a punt that gave the Utes good field position, which they immediately turned into their other touchdown. Without those 17 points by Utah, there would have been no need for the late-game dramatics. BYU probably would have escaped with a 21-7 win. After the fumble was returned for a touchdown was where the coaching staff failed. Something should have been done to calm down the shell-shocked offensive line.
Boise State
When BYU finally scored, the coaching staff could have kicked the extra point and tied the score instead of going for a 2-point conversion to win the game. I don't know if BYU could have won on the road in overtime, but there would have been no second guessing the coaching staff. Boise failed to score However, if they would have made the 2-point conversion, what a conversation piece that would have been.
Also of note, Boise State scored their only touchdown when Riley Nelson forced a pass into coverage.
Notre Dame
None of BYU's turnovers turned into scores. BYU missed a field goal and quarterback Riley Nelson missed a wide-open Cody Hoffman on what could have been a game breaking touchdown score.
Oregon State
This was a very close game until the beginning of the 4th quarter when the Beavers blew the game open. Mistakes were made early in the game. It could have been a different game if BYU had been able to take the lead early in the game.
Here is where BYU has to improve on in 2013.
1. Quarterback Play. Riley Nelson has a tendency to force the ball downfield when nothing is open. This has killed scoring opportunities and in some cases, led to scoring opportunities for the opposition. This was THE difference in at least one game in 2012. BYU is more likely to win when the quarterback throws the ball. Steve Young himself said that a quarterback will not win the game by letting the defense hit him. When the quarterback runs, he should avoid contact. This will help minimize injury. Quarterbacks are usually not built to get the extra 2 or 3 yards. The only time to fight for the extra yards is on 3rd down.
2. Offesnive line play. The 2013 starting quarterback has have time to throw the ball. Better blocking will also lead to more yards on the ground. A stronger passing game will open up opportunities for yards by the running backs. That is the definition of how the West Coast Offense should work.
3. Clock and game management. Need to work on saving time outs for late in the game. The Boise State decision could have been viewed differently if BYU had time outs to use after they kicked the ball back to Boise State. With 3 time outs, they could have got the ball back. There were some other times when game management was glaring, particularly the Notre Dame Game.
4. Kicking Field Goals. Need to improve success on field goal attempts.
It would be nice if the BYU defense could be 80% of how good they are this year. It would be even better if they could duplicate this year's success.
Bronco Mendenhall Year by Year...
2012
Best Win, Utah State. At best, the Aggies will finish the season with 11 wins, a conference championship and a national ranking. At worst, USU will finish with 9 wins. USU is a good team this year and even though the games was ugly, a good win for the Cougars.
Worst Loss, Utah. The Utes will struggle to achieve bowl eligibility. It seem that at best, after the bowls, the Utes will be 7-6. This is a game that BYU should have won.
2011
Best Win, Utah State. The Aggies were, in 2011, the only bowl-eligible team the Cougars defeated in 2011.
Worst Loss, Utah. The Utes beat the Cougars badly due to BYU's errors. The Utes barely become bowl eligible and struggled throughout the season.
2010
Best Win, San Diego State. The Aztecs had the best record of all the teams that BYU defeated in 2010.
Worst Loss, Utah State. In 2010, the Aggies had the worst record of all the teams that BYU lost to.
2009
Best Win, Oklahoma. The Sooners finished 8-5, but were ranked in the top 10 when BYU bested them.
Worst Loss, Florida State. The Seminoles barely finished the season bowl-eligible. This was a lopsided loss at home. Could turn out to be the worst loss of Bronco Mendenhall's tenure. There was no shame in BYU's other 2009 loss, but this one was bad.
2008
Best Win, Air Force. The Falcons were the only FBS team with a winning record that BYU defeated in 2008.
Worst Loss, TCU. There was no shame in losing to TCU in 2008, however.
2007
Best Win, Utah. Austin Collie was living right in this one.
Worst Loss, Tulsa. When your team scores 47 points, you should win.
2006
Best Win, TCU. The Horned Frogs were in the top 25 all season.
Worst Loss, Arizona. The Wildcats finished 6-6 and were not invited to a bowl. This one cost BYU a chance at a BCS bowl.
2005
Best win, Colorado State. 2005 was Sunny Lubick's last good season at CSU.
Worst Loss, San Diego State. 4 of the other 5 teams BYU lost to in 2005 finished the season ranked. Utah finished with a winning record. This was the only team with a sub .500 record that BYU lost to this season.
Utes May get 6 wins...but will it matter?...Wasatch Swagger Bowl projections
The Utes beat California and they should feel good about that. They have four games left and they should win three of those four. Ute fans should feel good abou that. So Utah will be going bowling, right? Not so fast.
The PAC-12 suffered a couple of big upsets on Saturday. Sometimes parity is good, and sometimes it stings. With USC and Oregon State both losing on Saturday, it looks like the PAC-12 will be lucky to get 2 teams in bowls games.. That may leave the Utes home for the holidays, even with 6 wins.
As it stands after the latest BCS standing, the PAC-12 might have 2 BCS bowl teams. Here is what it means for the Utes.
BCS Championship--Alabama vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl--Oregon vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl--Notre Dame vs. LSU
Orange Bowl--Florida State vs. Louisville
Fiesta Bowl--Oregon State vs. Clemson
But even if the PAC-12 gets 2 teams into the BCS, as it currently stands, there may not be enough room for the Utes. Here is who the PAC-12 bowls look.
Oregon--Rose
Oregon State--Fiesta
Stanford--Alamo
USC--Holiday
UCLA--Sun
Arizona State--Las Vegas
Washington--Kraft Fight Hunger
Arizona--New Mexico
Utah--??
But what about the Utes?
1. Army will not be bowl eligible this year. Their Military Bowl slot will be available.
2. The ACC will not fill out their bowl slots, their Military Bowl slot will be available. But will go to the MAC.
3. Conference USA will not be able to fill all of their bowl slots. They have 5 bowl slots, but will probably only have 4 bowl eligible teams.
4. The Big 10 will not be able to fill all of their bowl spots, leaving the Ticket City Bowl open.
5. The Big East will not fill all of their bowl projections. This will leave the Pinstripe Bowl open.
There are options for Utah if they take care of business. They shouldn't worry about not having a bowl to go to.
CBS has the Utes projected to the Pinstripe bowl. If it were me, however, I would consider ticket sales. I would invite Washington to the Hawaii Bowl to replace the Conference USA team. I would put Utah in either the Las Vegas Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl.
The PAC-12 suffered a couple of big upsets on Saturday. Sometimes parity is good, and sometimes it stings. With USC and Oregon State both losing on Saturday, it looks like the PAC-12 will be lucky to get 2 teams in bowls games.. That may leave the Utes home for the holidays, even with 6 wins.
As it stands after the latest BCS standing, the PAC-12 might have 2 BCS bowl teams. Here is what it means for the Utes.
BCS Championship--Alabama vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl--Oregon vs. Nebraska
Sugar Bowl--Notre Dame vs. LSU
Orange Bowl--Florida State vs. Louisville
Fiesta Bowl--Oregon State vs. Clemson
But even if the PAC-12 gets 2 teams into the BCS, as it currently stands, there may not be enough room for the Utes. Here is who the PAC-12 bowls look.
Oregon--Rose
Oregon State--Fiesta
Stanford--Alamo
USC--Holiday
UCLA--Sun
Arizona State--Las Vegas
Washington--Kraft Fight Hunger
Arizona--New Mexico
Utah--??
But what about the Utes?
1. Army will not be bowl eligible this year. Their Military Bowl slot will be available.
2. The ACC will not fill out their bowl slots, their Military Bowl slot will be available. But will go to the MAC.
3. Conference USA will not be able to fill all of their bowl slots. They have 5 bowl slots, but will probably only have 4 bowl eligible teams.
4. The Big 10 will not be able to fill all of their bowl spots, leaving the Ticket City Bowl open.
5. The Big East will not fill all of their bowl projections. This will leave the Pinstripe Bowl open.
There are options for Utah if they take care of business. They shouldn't worry about not having a bowl to go to.
CBS has the Utes projected to the Pinstripe bowl. If it were me, however, I would consider ticket sales. I would invite Washington to the Hawaii Bowl to replace the Conference USA team. I would put Utah in either the Las Vegas Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Huge upset and other happenings in Utah's College Football
This first one is Big...
Southern Utah 30 Eastern Washington 27
A week after surrendering the first win of the season to previously winless Weber State, SUU stole a win from FCS #1 Eastern Washington. The Eagles were nursing a 1 touchdown lead and inside the T-Bird 15 at the beginning of the 4th quarter when on the second play of the quarter, running back Demitrius Bronson fumbled the ball. After an exchange of punts, Brad Soresen led a 78-yard game-tying touchdown touchdown drive that was capped with a 21 yard touchdown pass to Fatu Maola. After Eastern Washington missed a 37 yard field goal, Sorensen led the Thunderbids on another long drive, this time for the game-winning field goal.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Soresen
BYU 41 Georgia Tech 17
Georgia Tech scored on an interception, a kick off return and a field goal, but otherwise it was total Cougar domination on the road in Atlanta. Freshman running back Jamaal Williams outgained and completely outscored the Georgia Tech offense all by himself. He had 107 yards rushing and 54 yards receiving with 3 touchdowns on the ground and catching 1 touchdown pass. The Yellowjackets were held to 157 total yards and managed only 3 points on offense.
BYU MVP: RB Jamaal Williams
Utah 49 California 27
The Utes won in big fashion over the Bears, so technically their bowl hopes are still alive. (More on why it may be all academic, later). Blackout night was a fun one for Ute fans. For the first time in history, they get to witness not 1 but 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns by the same player. By the time the Cal offense got on track, the game was out of reach.
Utah MVP: KR Reggie Dunn
Utah State 48 UTSA 17
The Aggies took the Kerwynn Williams and Chuckie Keeton show to the Alamodome. The Aggies scored 20 points in the 2nd quarter and 21 points in the 3rd. During that time, the Roadrunners only scored only 7 points during that half of the game.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Southern Utah 30 Eastern Washington 27
A week after surrendering the first win of the season to previously winless Weber State, SUU stole a win from FCS #1 Eastern Washington. The Eagles were nursing a 1 touchdown lead and inside the T-Bird 15 at the beginning of the 4th quarter when on the second play of the quarter, running back Demitrius Bronson fumbled the ball. After an exchange of punts, Brad Soresen led a 78-yard game-tying touchdown touchdown drive that was capped with a 21 yard touchdown pass to Fatu Maola. After Eastern Washington missed a 37 yard field goal, Sorensen led the Thunderbids on another long drive, this time for the game-winning field goal.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Soresen
BYU 41 Georgia Tech 17
Georgia Tech scored on an interception, a kick off return and a field goal, but otherwise it was total Cougar domination on the road in Atlanta. Freshman running back Jamaal Williams outgained and completely outscored the Georgia Tech offense all by himself. He had 107 yards rushing and 54 yards receiving with 3 touchdowns on the ground and catching 1 touchdown pass. The Yellowjackets were held to 157 total yards and managed only 3 points on offense.
BYU MVP: RB Jamaal Williams
Utah 49 California 27
The Utes won in big fashion over the Bears, so technically their bowl hopes are still alive. (More on why it may be all academic, later). Blackout night was a fun one for Ute fans. For the first time in history, they get to witness not 1 but 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns by the same player. By the time the Cal offense got on track, the game was out of reach.
Utah MVP: KR Reggie Dunn
Utah State 48 UTSA 17
The Aggies took the Kerwynn Williams and Chuckie Keeton show to the Alamodome. The Aggies scored 20 points in the 2nd quarter and 21 points in the 3rd. During that time, the Roadrunners only scored only 7 points during that half of the game.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Utah College Football Picks for 10/27
BYU @ Georgia Tech
The Cougars have had a good defense this year, and have their biggest test this Saturday at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets can run the ball. I expect that BYU will hold them below the season average in points and yards. The passing game should be of concern to BYU. They do so little of it that they catch you by surprise when they do it. The real question is what will BYU's offense do when they have the ball. BYU will have to score in the high 20s to win and GT does not have the best defense BYU will see all year. The computers say BYU by a touchdown and who I am to argue with that logic.
28-21 BYU
California @ Utah
If Utah is going to turn the season around and get back to a bowl game, now is the time. Lately, the offense has been anemic. But the defense is good, and should be just good enough to give the Utes a win at home and hope for a post season, even if it's the New Mexico Bowl.
17-14 Utah
Utah State at UTSA
The Road Runners aren't half bad for a team playing only their 3rd season of college football. They are 5-2 and could be unofficially bowl-eligible, even though they won't really be bowl eligible until 2014. But, this weekend, the Aggies present the first real quality team that the Road Runners have ever faced. And last week, San Jose State ran up 52 points against them. I don't think that this game will be a big blowout, but it won't be all that close either.
45-21 USU
Eastern Washington at Southern Utah
The #1 team in FCS is visiting Cedar City this weekend. The Thunderbirds have been competitive in almost every game this season, but last week's near comeback may have been a back breaker. The Thunderbirds can only play spoiler from here on out. Here is their first chance, they could deal EWU's conference title hopes a big blow this weekend. The Eagles could be looking ahead to the big match against Cal Poly next week. I think that this will be closer than "they" think it will be. But I don't think the Thunderbirds will win.
35-32 EWU
The Cougars have had a good defense this year, and have their biggest test this Saturday at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets can run the ball. I expect that BYU will hold them below the season average in points and yards. The passing game should be of concern to BYU. They do so little of it that they catch you by surprise when they do it. The real question is what will BYU's offense do when they have the ball. BYU will have to score in the high 20s to win and GT does not have the best defense BYU will see all year. The computers say BYU by a touchdown and who I am to argue with that logic.
28-21 BYU
California @ Utah
If Utah is going to turn the season around and get back to a bowl game, now is the time. Lately, the offense has been anemic. But the defense is good, and should be just good enough to give the Utes a win at home and hope for a post season, even if it's the New Mexico Bowl.
17-14 Utah
Utah State at UTSA
The Road Runners aren't half bad for a team playing only their 3rd season of college football. They are 5-2 and could be unofficially bowl-eligible, even though they won't really be bowl eligible until 2014. But, this weekend, the Aggies present the first real quality team that the Road Runners have ever faced. And last week, San Jose State ran up 52 points against them. I don't think that this game will be a big blowout, but it won't be all that close either.
45-21 USU
Eastern Washington at Southern Utah
The #1 team in FCS is visiting Cedar City this weekend. The Thunderbirds have been competitive in almost every game this season, but last week's near comeback may have been a back breaker. The Thunderbirds can only play spoiler from here on out. Here is their first chance, they could deal EWU's conference title hopes a big blow this weekend. The Eagles could be looking ahead to the big match against Cal Poly next week. I think that this will be closer than "they" think it will be. But I don't think the Thunderbirds will win.
35-32 EWU
Big Sky Conference Post Season Chances and Power Rankings
The picture is pretty much the same as last week, but I erroneously reported that North Dakota was out of the race. They are now 4-4 with three games left. They still have a mathematical possibility of a post-season bid.
The reason for keeping track of this is to determine if the expanded Big Sky Conference can be justified by more playoff births. Before, the BSC was often a 2 or 3 team post-season conference. Where the GWC was often left out. So far, it appears that the BSC will get 4 teams in the post-season.
The Contenders
#1/1 Eastern Washington is still #1, but fell to #3 in the GPI because of they did not win easily over Sacramento State. GPI is used to determine who the at-large people will be, not necessarily seeding. But if it is, #3 is as good as #1 until the semi-finals. However, if the voters in both polls think that EWU is the #1 team in the land, can the committee really be justified and giving them a lower seed? Remaining schedule: @Southern Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State.
#4/4 Montana State took the week off and moved up one spot in the polls. In the GPI, they are at #6. They should win all of their remaining games, but they also do not have that much of a chance to make more of an impression unless they win big. Too bad Montana is having an off year. Remaining schedule: North Dakota, @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana
#11/11 Cal Poly had a close game last week against Portland State. But they move up in the polls and hold steady with a GPI of #4. Even if they lose to EWU and NAU, they should still be in good shape for the post season as long as they do not look past their other two opponents. Remaining schedule: @ Sacramento State, @ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona
#13/13 Northern Arizona is steadily climbing the polls. They are also at #7 on the GPI. They have a relatively light schedule before the big finale. It will be a challenge for them to remain focused because NCU, ISU and SUU are dying to spoil their season. Remaining schedule: @ Northern Colorado, @ Idaho State Southern Utah, Cal Poly.
Also still in the running
Sacramento State's chances took a major hit with the loss to EWU. Close losses to quality opponents do not matter right now. They need to beat somebody, either Cal Poly or Montana State, just to get to 7 wins. They have Cal Poly, Montana State and UC Davis left to play. If they win 2 of the last 3, their playoff chances are good.
Mathematically Still in the Race
North Dakota is a 4-4 with 3 left to play. @Montana State, Southern Utah and @Northern Colorado. If they can knock off the Bobcats, they have breath
Not in post-season contention:
There will be no post-season this year for Southern Utah, UC Davis, Portland State, Montana, Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Cal Poly
3. Northern Arizona
4. Montana State
5. Sacramento State
6. North Dakota
7. UC Davis
8. Southern Utah
9. Montana
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
The reason for keeping track of this is to determine if the expanded Big Sky Conference can be justified by more playoff births. Before, the BSC was often a 2 or 3 team post-season conference. Where the GWC was often left out. So far, it appears that the BSC will get 4 teams in the post-season.
The Contenders
#1/1 Eastern Washington is still #1, but fell to #3 in the GPI because of they did not win easily over Sacramento State. GPI is used to determine who the at-large people will be, not necessarily seeding. But if it is, #3 is as good as #1 until the semi-finals. However, if the voters in both polls think that EWU is the #1 team in the land, can the committee really be justified and giving them a lower seed? Remaining schedule: @Southern Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State.
#4/4 Montana State took the week off and moved up one spot in the polls. In the GPI, they are at #6. They should win all of their remaining games, but they also do not have that much of a chance to make more of an impression unless they win big. Too bad Montana is having an off year. Remaining schedule: North Dakota, @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana
#11/11 Cal Poly had a close game last week against Portland State. But they move up in the polls and hold steady with a GPI of #4. Even if they lose to EWU and NAU, they should still be in good shape for the post season as long as they do not look past their other two opponents. Remaining schedule: @ Sacramento State, @ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona
#13/13 Northern Arizona is steadily climbing the polls. They are also at #7 on the GPI. They have a relatively light schedule before the big finale. It will be a challenge for them to remain focused because NCU, ISU and SUU are dying to spoil their season. Remaining schedule: @ Northern Colorado, @ Idaho State Southern Utah, Cal Poly.
Also still in the running
Sacramento State's chances took a major hit with the loss to EWU. Close losses to quality opponents do not matter right now. They need to beat somebody, either Cal Poly or Montana State, just to get to 7 wins. They have Cal Poly, Montana State and UC Davis left to play. If they win 2 of the last 3, their playoff chances are good.
Mathematically Still in the Race
North Dakota is a 4-4 with 3 left to play. @Montana State, Southern Utah and @Northern Colorado. If they can knock off the Bobcats, they have breath
Not in post-season contention:
There will be no post-season this year for Southern Utah, UC Davis, Portland State, Montana, Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Cal Poly
3. Northern Arizona
4. Montana State
5. Sacramento State
6. North Dakota
7. UC Davis
8. Southern Utah
9. Montana
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Improvement at BYU, Bronco beating his own record.
I have a hunch that Bronco Mendenhall knows that BYU needs to get better. The first two years of independence have been frustrating to the fans and another season of almost victories will probably put Mendendall firmly in the hot seat. However, Bronco has been Bronco all along. He had a relapse, or a bad season, in the 2010 season, but recovered. He has been as good in 2011 and 2012 as he was in 2006-2009, but the competition has been stronger. This year, Utah State is better and BYU has replaced games against UNLV and Wyoming with games against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. And will be even more so going forward. I have written several articles about BYU and the success under the Mendenhall era. Here is the benchmark that needs to be improved upon.
What Bronco does well.
1. Wins against non-bowl eligible BCS teams. This years loss to Utah may stand as the only loss against this group.
2. Vs. average/poor non-BCS teams. You can count on one hand the number of times BYU has lost these games.
Losses against this group:
2010, Utah State
2005, San Diego State
Where BYU needs to improve.
1. Vs. Bowl-eligible BCS competition which now includes Utah and TCU. Mendenhall's teams have won only about 20% of these games. Not counting bowl games, Bronco's teams have won against this level of competition only three times. 2007 vs. Arizona (Arizona finished 6-6 and did not go to a bowl game that year), 2009 vs. Oklahoma and 2010 vs. Washington. I think the next step, beginning in 2013, is to move up to 50% vs this level of competition. It is likely that Georgia Tech, regardless of the BYU outcome, will not be bowl-eligible this year. BYU has no more opportunities, therefore, has to show that they can win these game this year. This season, Bronco is 0-3 (not including Utah at this point, as they are currently below .500). This represents the bulk of Bronco Mendenhall's losses at BYU.
2. Vs. Ranked/Quality non-BCS teams (finished with 9 or more wins). This includes Utah and TCU when they were part of the MWC. BYU is 1-1 against this group in 2012. No other chances against this level of competition this season. BYU has won about 1/3 of these games. (7-12 record.). The goal for 2013 should be to win half of these games.
Noteable wins against this group.
2012, Utah State
2010, San Diego State
All wins against TCU and Utah.
Here are some notable losses
2012, Boise State
2010, Air Force
2010, Nevada (They were not ranked at the time, but finished the season at #11.)
2007, Tulsa
All losses against TCU and losses against Utah when they were members of the MWC.
Bronco's Record vs TCU as members of the MWC
2-5
Bronco's Record vs Utah
3-3 while Utah was in the MWC
0-2 while Utah since Utah joined the PAC-12 (Not part of this group.)
In short, Bronco's Record, or the Bronco Pattern.
Vs. Bowl Eligible BCS Teams 20%
Vs. Other BCS teams 80%
Vs. Quality non-BCS teams 33%
Vs. Other non-BCS teams 90%
BYU's probable 2013 schedule, based upon these groups
Bowl-eligible BCS (20% chance of victory)
Texas
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
Utah (assuming that Utah is better)
Other BCS (80% chance of victory)
Washington State
Georgia Tech (Assuming Ga Tech fires their coach and is rebuilding in 2013).
Quality non-BCS (33% chance of victory)
Boise State
Utah State
Other non-BCS (90% chance of victory)
Houston
Middle Tennessee
Hawaii
(Unnamed 12th opponent, likely New Mexico State)
BYU's best-case scenario 2013, given the "Bronco Pattern" 7-5...BYU is due for a win against an elite program. Last win was 2010 vs Washington who finished 6-6 in the regular season and then won the Holiday Bowl to finish 7-6.
BYU's worst-case scenario for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 5-7...BYU is due for a loss against a lesser program. Last loss was 2010 vs Utah State. But they have 3 more chances to loose against this level of competition in the regular season in 2012.
Because BYU beat Utah State in 2012, they should lose to both Boise State and Utah State in 2013.
Because BYU lost to Utah in 2012, they should beat both Georgia Tech and Washington State in 2013.
BYU's most-likely outcome for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 6-6
For 2013, 5-7 wins would be Bronco as usual. 8 would be an improvement, even if BYU wins 9 this year. 4 or less would be getting worse.
I have one more thing to say in conclusion. BYU's record this year is reflective of one fact. In 3 of the 4 losses, the team made 1 too many mistakes. That is the reality of the situation. You can get away with mistakes against the likes of San Diego State and Wyoming that will cost games against Boise State and Notre Dame. That is the reality of independence for BYU and their fans. They mainly need to wake up to the fact that the schedule is tougher and clean up the errors. If they do this, the team will progress.
What Bronco does well.
1. Wins against non-bowl eligible BCS teams. This years loss to Utah may stand as the only loss against this group.
2. Vs. average/poor non-BCS teams. You can count on one hand the number of times BYU has lost these games.
Losses against this group:
2010, Utah State
2005, San Diego State
Where BYU needs to improve.
1. Vs. Bowl-eligible BCS competition which now includes Utah and TCU. Mendenhall's teams have won only about 20% of these games. Not counting bowl games, Bronco's teams have won against this level of competition only three times. 2007 vs. Arizona (Arizona finished 6-6 and did not go to a bowl game that year), 2009 vs. Oklahoma and 2010 vs. Washington. I think the next step, beginning in 2013, is to move up to 50% vs this level of competition. It is likely that Georgia Tech, regardless of the BYU outcome, will not be bowl-eligible this year. BYU has no more opportunities, therefore, has to show that they can win these game this year. This season, Bronco is 0-3 (not including Utah at this point, as they are currently below .500). This represents the bulk of Bronco Mendenhall's losses at BYU.
2. Vs. Ranked/Quality non-BCS teams (finished with 9 or more wins). This includes Utah and TCU when they were part of the MWC. BYU is 1-1 against this group in 2012. No other chances against this level of competition this season. BYU has won about 1/3 of these games. (7-12 record.). The goal for 2013 should be to win half of these games.
Noteable wins against this group.
2012, Utah State
2010, San Diego State
All wins against TCU and Utah.
Here are some notable losses
2012, Boise State
2010, Air Force
2010, Nevada (They were not ranked at the time, but finished the season at #11.)
2007, Tulsa
All losses against TCU and losses against Utah when they were members of the MWC.
Bronco's Record vs TCU as members of the MWC
2-5
Bronco's Record vs Utah
3-3 while Utah was in the MWC
0-2 while Utah since Utah joined the PAC-12 (Not part of this group.)
In short, Bronco's Record, or the Bronco Pattern.
Vs. Bowl Eligible BCS Teams 20%
Vs. Other BCS teams 80%
Vs. Quality non-BCS teams 33%
Vs. Other non-BCS teams 90%
BYU's probable 2013 schedule, based upon these groups
Bowl-eligible BCS (20% chance of victory)
Texas
Wisconsin
Notre Dame
Utah (assuming that Utah is better)
Other BCS (80% chance of victory)
Washington State
Georgia Tech (Assuming Ga Tech fires their coach and is rebuilding in 2013).
Quality non-BCS (33% chance of victory)
Boise State
Utah State
Other non-BCS (90% chance of victory)
Houston
Middle Tennessee
Hawaii
(Unnamed 12th opponent, likely New Mexico State)
BYU's best-case scenario 2013, given the "Bronco Pattern" 7-5...BYU is due for a win against an elite program. Last win was 2010 vs Washington who finished 6-6 in the regular season and then won the Holiday Bowl to finish 7-6.
BYU's worst-case scenario for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 5-7...BYU is due for a loss against a lesser program. Last loss was 2010 vs Utah State. But they have 3 more chances to loose against this level of competition in the regular season in 2012.
Because BYU beat Utah State in 2012, they should lose to both Boise State and Utah State in 2013.
Because BYU lost to Utah in 2012, they should beat both Georgia Tech and Washington State in 2013.
BYU's most-likely outcome for 2013, according to the "Bronco Pattern" 6-6
For 2013, 5-7 wins would be Bronco as usual. 8 would be an improvement, even if BYU wins 9 this year. 4 or less would be getting worse.
I have one more thing to say in conclusion. BYU's record this year is reflective of one fact. In 3 of the 4 losses, the team made 1 too many mistakes. That is the reality of the situation. You can get away with mistakes against the likes of San Diego State and Wyoming that will cost games against Boise State and Notre Dame. That is the reality of independence for BYU and their fans. They mainly need to wake up to the fact that the schedule is tougher and clean up the errors. If they do this, the team will progress.
Idaho in the Big Sky for non-football sports
Idaho has decided to move to the Big Sky for it's non football sports, and many believe it will be a matter of time before football follows, however, Idaho is still hoping for an invite to the Mountain West Conference.
First, let's look at the 2013 schedule. There are five glaring features. They play New Mexico State twice and they do not play fellow independent BYU. I can understand why there is no BYU on the schedule. BYU already has 12 games scheduled (including NM State, who is not officially announced.) And already has 6 road games. They do play at Hawaii in 2013. Idaho, however, was unwilling to play in Provo for a 3rd season in a row and BYU was not going to use the Hawaii exemption for a road game. You may (emphasis on may) see the Cougars visit the Kibbie Dome in 2014, however. There are no FCS teams on the schedule. Old Dominion will be in transition, joining C-USA. Fifth, who is the mystery BCS team?
A31 @ North Texas
S7 @ Wyoming
S14 Northern Illinois
S21 @ Washington State
S28 Temple
O5 Fresno State
O12 @ Arkansas State
O19 Open
O26 @ Ole Miss
N2 New Mexico State
N9 Old Dominion
N16 Open
N23 TBA--BCS opponent
N30 @ New Mexico State
Now for the mystery BCS team, don't have a real clue. Notre Dame doesn't begin their ACC schedule until 2014. We know it will not be a PAC-12 school as they will not play a non-conference game so late in the season.
Here is the list of BCS schools that still have an opening, based upon information from FBSchedules.com
Wake Forest
Minnesota
Ohio State
Alabama
Auburn
Missouri
This is why I say road game, who on this list would come to Moscow and play in the Kibbie Dome? Maybe a neutral site game in Seattle, but not in November.
First, let's look at the 2013 schedule. There are five glaring features. They play New Mexico State twice and they do not play fellow independent BYU. I can understand why there is no BYU on the schedule. BYU already has 12 games scheduled (including NM State, who is not officially announced.) And already has 6 road games. They do play at Hawaii in 2013. Idaho, however, was unwilling to play in Provo for a 3rd season in a row and BYU was not going to use the Hawaii exemption for a road game. You may (emphasis on may) see the Cougars visit the Kibbie Dome in 2014, however. There are no FCS teams on the schedule. Old Dominion will be in transition, joining C-USA. Fifth, who is the mystery BCS team?
A31 @ North Texas
S7 @ Wyoming
S14 Northern Illinois
S21 @ Washington State
S28 Temple
O5 Fresno State
O12 @ Arkansas State
O19 Open
O26 @ Ole Miss
N2 New Mexico State
N9 Old Dominion
N16 Open
N23 TBA--BCS opponent
N30 @ New Mexico State
Now for the mystery BCS team, don't have a real clue. Notre Dame doesn't begin their ACC schedule until 2014. We know it will not be a PAC-12 school as they will not play a non-conference game so late in the season.
Here is the list of BCS schools that still have an opening, based upon information from FBSchedules.com
Wake Forest
Minnesota
Ohio State
Alabama
Auburn
Missouri
This is why I say road game, who on this list would come to Moscow and play in the Kibbie Dome? Maybe a neutral site game in Seattle, but not in November.
Monday, October 22, 2012
It's Official
Robb Akey has been fired as Idaho's head football coach. Too bad. Hopefully he will find a place where success is possible.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
What Happened in Utah College Football 10/20
Notre Dame 17 BYU 14
The Cougars took at 14-7 lead into the locker room in Notre Dame, but the previously vaunted run defense could not hold off the Irish, who won 17-14. BYU had their chances to add another score in the second half, but Riley Nelson was unable to connect. BYU will now travel to Georgia Tech, who is also struggling for bowl eligibility. In the meantime, many fans are looking for answers to the questions that have bugged the Cougars for the last 3 seasons, particularly on offense.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Oregon State 21 Utah 7
It was a surprisingly defensive game. The Utes were able to move the ball, but gave it away 4 times. Particularly hurtful was a 3rd quarter drive where the fumble occurred inside the OSU 10 yard line. To their credit, Utah was very good at pressuring Cody Vaz to stymie the Beaver offense. He did not have time, much of the night, to find his talented receivers.
Utah MVP: TE Jake Murphy
Utah State 41 New Mexico State 7
If there is anything to complain about in this game for the USU Aggies, it is when they decided to take their foot off of the gas. USU only scored 13 points in the second half. USU only managed 516 yards of total offense in a balanced attack and benefited from favorable field position most of the game. The main reason the score was not in the 60s was that the other Aggies didn't turn the ball over much.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Weber State 24 Southern Utah 22
The Weber State Wildcats earned their first win of 2012 by winning a nail-biter in Ceder City. The WSU Cats built up a 21-9 4th quarter lead and then held on for the victory. SUU tried to tie the game in the final minute, but missed a two-point conversion attempt. They were then unable to recover the ensuing on-site kick, even though celebration penalties after the 2-point conversion attempt placed the kickoff on the WSU 35.
WSU MVP: WR Xavian Johnson
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
The Cougars took at 14-7 lead into the locker room in Notre Dame, but the previously vaunted run defense could not hold off the Irish, who won 17-14. BYU had their chances to add another score in the second half, but Riley Nelson was unable to connect. BYU will now travel to Georgia Tech, who is also struggling for bowl eligibility. In the meantime, many fans are looking for answers to the questions that have bugged the Cougars for the last 3 seasons, particularly on offense.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Oregon State 21 Utah 7
It was a surprisingly defensive game. The Utes were able to move the ball, but gave it away 4 times. Particularly hurtful was a 3rd quarter drive where the fumble occurred inside the OSU 10 yard line. To their credit, Utah was very good at pressuring Cody Vaz to stymie the Beaver offense. He did not have time, much of the night, to find his talented receivers.
Utah MVP: TE Jake Murphy
Utah State 41 New Mexico State 7
If there is anything to complain about in this game for the USU Aggies, it is when they decided to take their foot off of the gas. USU only scored 13 points in the second half. USU only managed 516 yards of total offense in a balanced attack and benefited from favorable field position most of the game. The main reason the score was not in the 60s was that the other Aggies didn't turn the ball over much.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
Weber State 24 Southern Utah 22
The Weber State Wildcats earned their first win of 2012 by winning a nail-biter in Ceder City. The WSU Cats built up a 21-9 4th quarter lead and then held on for the victory. SUU tried to tie the game in the final minute, but missed a two-point conversion attempt. They were then unable to recover the ensuing on-site kick, even though celebration penalties after the 2-point conversion attempt placed the kickoff on the WSU 35.
WSU MVP: WR Xavian Johnson
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
Friday, October 19, 2012
Utah College Picks for October 20
BYU at Notre Dame
I don't think that this game will be close after what we witnessed in Provo last week. BYU's defense should hold the Notre Dame running game in check. But the BYU offense will be fortunate just to score against Manti Teo and the rest of the Irish defense.
10-0 Notre Dame
Utah at Oregon State
This is another game that the team from Utah will simply be terribly over-matched. The key for the Utes will be to succeed where BYU's defense failed, to bring pressure on quarterback Cody Vaz. Otherwise, the OSU receivers are just too good when Vaz has enough time in the pocket. OSU is for real this year. Looking forward to Oregon's Civil War this year.
35-10 Oregon State
New Mexico State at Utah State
This time it is the Utah team that overly matches the opponent. At one point, about 4 years ago, these two teams were on an equal plane. Now one's program has improved at a much greater rate than the other.
45-10 Utah State
Weber State at Southern Utah
The Wildcats are still looking their first win of the season while the Thunderbirds need a win to stay alive for a possible post-season bid. SUU is the first sub .500 team that WSU has faced this year. But SUU should still come out as the favorite in Cedar City.
35-28 SUU
I don't think that this game will be close after what we witnessed in Provo last week. BYU's defense should hold the Notre Dame running game in check. But the BYU offense will be fortunate just to score against Manti Teo and the rest of the Irish defense.
10-0 Notre Dame
Utah at Oregon State
This is another game that the team from Utah will simply be terribly over-matched. The key for the Utes will be to succeed where BYU's defense failed, to bring pressure on quarterback Cody Vaz. Otherwise, the OSU receivers are just too good when Vaz has enough time in the pocket. OSU is for real this year. Looking forward to Oregon's Civil War this year.
35-10 Oregon State
New Mexico State at Utah State
This time it is the Utah team that overly matches the opponent. At one point, about 4 years ago, these two teams were on an equal plane. Now one's program has improved at a much greater rate than the other.
45-10 Utah State
Weber State at Southern Utah
The Wildcats are still looking their first win of the season while the Thunderbirds need a win to stay alive for a possible post-season bid. SUU is the first sub .500 team that WSU has faced this year. But SUU should still come out as the favorite in Cedar City.
35-28 SUU
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Big Sky Post-Season Outlook for 10/17
The main justification in expanding the Big Sky Football Conference to 13 members was to get greater representation in the FCS playoffs. So far, the plan seems to be working as 4 BSC members are are on the inside of the bubble right now.
The Contenders
#1/1 Eastern Washington was propelled to the top spot in the land in both polls after a victory over Montana State in Bozeman. The Eagles hold the number 2 spot in the GPI Power Rankings, the FCS semi-equivelent of the the BCS poll. The Eagles are in a 2-way tie with Cal Poly for the conference race. That could be settled on November 3rd on the red turf. Remaining schedule: Sacramento State, @Southern Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State.
#5/5 Montana State was hurt a little by the loss to Eastern Washington. The Bobcats hold the number 5 spot in the GPI rankings. That is not all that bad. It does mean a 1st round bye and a 2nd round home game. The main difference is that the opposition also has a week off. The goal is to get to the #4 position and one of the teams currently ahead of them should lose before the end of the season. They are behind the 8-ball for the automatic bid. EWU and Cal Poly both have a win over an FCS team. Remaining schedule: bye, North Dakota, @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana
#12/14 Cal Poly again takes care of business against a weaker conference foe, but the whole season will not be a cakewalk for the Mustangs. Currently, they have a GPI of 4. Ahead of Montana State and behind EWU. They have a couple of chances to impress the pollsters later in the season. Remaining schedule: Portland State, @ Sacramento State, @ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona
#15/16 Northern Arizona is much higher in the GPI, where they reside at #7. That is good enough to get a 2nd round home game. Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Big Sky Conference with 4 2nd round home teams. That would be a feather in Doug Fullerton's cap. The Lumberjacks do not have a lot of chances to impress the pollsters, other than to run the table, and then be ready for Cal Poly. Remaining schedule: UC Davis, @ Northern Colorado, @ Idaho State Southern Utah, Cal Poly.
Also still in the running
Sacramento State is not ranked in either poll right now. They are not in the top 25 of the GPI either. But they have their chances to make impressions before the end of the season. They have @ Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Montana State and UC Davis left to play. If they win 2 of the next 3, their playoff chances are good.
Mathematically Still in the Race
Southern Utah can still qualify for the post-season if they win all 4 remaining games. They have Weber State, Eastern Washington, @ North Dakota and @ Northern Arizona left and they finish the season a week early.
UC Davis can also qualify for an at-large bid if they win all of their remaining games. They have @ Northern Arizona, Portland State, bye, @ Eastern Washington and @ Sacramento State left to play.
Not in post-season contention:
There will be no post-season this year for Portland State, Montana, North Dakota, Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Cal Poly
3. Northern Arizona
4. Montana State
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. UC Davis
8. Montana
9. North Dakota
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
The Contenders
#1/1 Eastern Washington was propelled to the top spot in the land in both polls after a victory over Montana State in Bozeman. The Eagles hold the number 2 spot in the GPI Power Rankings, the FCS semi-equivelent of the the BCS poll. The Eagles are in a 2-way tie with Cal Poly for the conference race. That could be settled on November 3rd on the red turf. Remaining schedule: Sacramento State, @Southern Utah, Cal Poly, UC Davis, @Portland State.
#5/5 Montana State was hurt a little by the loss to Eastern Washington. The Bobcats hold the number 5 spot in the GPI rankings. That is not all that bad. It does mean a 1st round bye and a 2nd round home game. The main difference is that the opposition also has a week off. The goal is to get to the #4 position and one of the teams currently ahead of them should lose before the end of the season. They are behind the 8-ball for the automatic bid. EWU and Cal Poly both have a win over an FCS team. Remaining schedule: bye, North Dakota, @ Sacramento State, Portland State, @ Montana
#12/14 Cal Poly again takes care of business against a weaker conference foe, but the whole season will not be a cakewalk for the Mustangs. Currently, they have a GPI of 4. Ahead of Montana State and behind EWU. They have a couple of chances to impress the pollsters later in the season. Remaining schedule: Portland State, @ Sacramento State, @ Eastern Washington, Idaho State, @ Northern Arizona
#15/16 Northern Arizona is much higher in the GPI, where they reside at #7. That is good enough to get a 2nd round home game. Wouldn't it be interesting to see the Big Sky Conference with 4 2nd round home teams. That would be a feather in Doug Fullerton's cap. The Lumberjacks do not have a lot of chances to impress the pollsters, other than to run the table, and then be ready for Cal Poly. Remaining schedule: UC Davis, @ Northern Colorado, @ Idaho State Southern Utah, Cal Poly.
Also still in the running
Sacramento State is not ranked in either poll right now. They are not in the top 25 of the GPI either. But they have their chances to make impressions before the end of the season. They have @ Eastern Washington, Cal Poly, Montana State and UC Davis left to play. If they win 2 of the next 3, their playoff chances are good.
Mathematically Still in the Race
Southern Utah can still qualify for the post-season if they win all 4 remaining games. They have Weber State, Eastern Washington, @ North Dakota and @ Northern Arizona left and they finish the season a week early.
UC Davis can also qualify for an at-large bid if they win all of their remaining games. They have @ Northern Arizona, Portland State, bye, @ Eastern Washington and @ Sacramento State left to play.
Not in post-season contention:
There will be no post-season this year for Portland State, Montana, North Dakota, Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Power Rankings
1. Eastern Washington
2. Cal Poly
3. Northern Arizona
4. Montana State
5. Sacramento State
6. Southern Utah
7. UC Davis
8. Montana
9. North Dakota
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Is the Seat Really that Hot for...
In order of most at risk to most safe, here is where I think Utah's five college football coaches stand.
1. Jody Sears. 95-100% chance he will not be back in 2013. Jody Sears took a job that no one in their right mind would want. John L. Smith came in, fired all of Ron McBride's assistants. Hired back 3 of them. Sears was hired when? During spring practice. He never had a hand in recruiting any kid that is currently playing football at Weber State. In most situations, the incoming coach has recruiting the incoming freshmen and JC transfers. He is not equipped to be successful and that is the main reason why WSU is currently 0-7. The only reason for him to come back is to see what he will do when he has his own class and a spring training under his belt. The current members of the team don't believe in him.
Personally, I think that Bovee made a mistake to name Sears as Interim Head Coach. He also made the mistake of hiring Smith in the first place. He should have picked one of the assistants that Smith decided to keep, like Colton Swann. That would have been viewed by the players as the AD is concerned about the players and the stake they have in the program. He should be on the hot seat as well. If Sears goes, so should Bovee.
2. Kyle Whittingham: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013. People understand that there is a big transition between the MWC and the PAC-12. It is obvious right now. But there are questions as to why Utah has seemed to improve in year 2. The reason is that the rest of the conference, particularly Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA are light years better than last year, where Utah only made incremental improvements. Part of the problem is the quarterback situation. It was obvious last year there was a serious problem. There was no credible backup to Jordan Wynn. That situation does not correct itself in one season. There are expectations that things will be better next season, but it is best to expect gradual and incremental improvements. I suspect if that minimum of incremental improvements is not met next season that Kyle will be asked to leave. I do not want to see Dr. Hill wreck the football program the same way that the basketball program has been ruined.
3. Bronco Mendenhall: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013. BYU is going through the same growing pains that Utah is, except for one difference. How many 4-star quarterbacks has BYU been through in the last 4 years? Jake Heaps transferred to Kansas. Brad Sorensen to Southern Utah. James Lark and Jason Munns have been sitting on the bench for 4 years. While Riley Nelson continues to play like a freshman. People like Bronco, but he will have to find an offensive coordinator who can develop the offense as well as players. Because he has been head and shoulders ahead of his predecessor, and because he is so aligned with the vision of the University, he has just as long of a life as Whittingham to prove himself, perhaps even longer. The more his offenses look like this year's offense, the hotter his seat will get. It takes both offense and defense to win games. I do not expect to see Bronco be forced out in Provo for at least 3 years if things do not improve. But, Bronco might recognize his predicament and take himself out of the picture. If he does not believe he can do the job, he will leave on his own.
Incremental improvements would be nice at BYU as well, not a sudden or a quick turnaround. How to measure that would be difficult. BYU is better than they were in 2010, but not as good as they were in 2011. Their defense is pretty good, but the offense has sputtered.
4. Ed Lamb: 1-5% chance he will not be back in 2013. SUU resides in the smallest market in all of Division I football, and I challenge anyone to prove otherwise. It may be almost impossible to succeed there. That I why I admire the job that Ed Lamb has done at Southern Utah. He deserves and should get the chance to coach somewhere bigger, and I suspect that someday, he will.
5. Gary Anderson: 0% chance he will not be back in 2013. He just signed a contract extension. He is getting paid a lot for a non-AQ head coach. He may take a job somewhere else, but where would he go? I don't know they guy personally. But I don't see him leaving for just any school that could double his salary. In fact, I think that there is only one job that Gary Anderson would leave Utah State for right now. That job is in Salt Lake City.
1. Jody Sears. 95-100% chance he will not be back in 2013. Jody Sears took a job that no one in their right mind would want. John L. Smith came in, fired all of Ron McBride's assistants. Hired back 3 of them. Sears was hired when? During spring practice. He never had a hand in recruiting any kid that is currently playing football at Weber State. In most situations, the incoming coach has recruiting the incoming freshmen and JC transfers. He is not equipped to be successful and that is the main reason why WSU is currently 0-7. The only reason for him to come back is to see what he will do when he has his own class and a spring training under his belt. The current members of the team don't believe in him.
Personally, I think that Bovee made a mistake to name Sears as Interim Head Coach. He also made the mistake of hiring Smith in the first place. He should have picked one of the assistants that Smith decided to keep, like Colton Swann. That would have been viewed by the players as the AD is concerned about the players and the stake they have in the program. He should be on the hot seat as well. If Sears goes, so should Bovee.
2. Kyle Whittingham: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013. People understand that there is a big transition between the MWC and the PAC-12. It is obvious right now. But there are questions as to why Utah has seemed to improve in year 2. The reason is that the rest of the conference, particularly Oregon State, Arizona State and UCLA are light years better than last year, where Utah only made incremental improvements. Part of the problem is the quarterback situation. It was obvious last year there was a serious problem. There was no credible backup to Jordan Wynn. That situation does not correct itself in one season. There are expectations that things will be better next season, but it is best to expect gradual and incremental improvements. I suspect if that minimum of incremental improvements is not met next season that Kyle will be asked to leave. I do not want to see Dr. Hill wreck the football program the same way that the basketball program has been ruined.
3. Bronco Mendenhall: 5-10% chance he will not be back in 2013. BYU is going through the same growing pains that Utah is, except for one difference. How many 4-star quarterbacks has BYU been through in the last 4 years? Jake Heaps transferred to Kansas. Brad Sorensen to Southern Utah. James Lark and Jason Munns have been sitting on the bench for 4 years. While Riley Nelson continues to play like a freshman. People like Bronco, but he will have to find an offensive coordinator who can develop the offense as well as players. Because he has been head and shoulders ahead of his predecessor, and because he is so aligned with the vision of the University, he has just as long of a life as Whittingham to prove himself, perhaps even longer. The more his offenses look like this year's offense, the hotter his seat will get. It takes both offense and defense to win games. I do not expect to see Bronco be forced out in Provo for at least 3 years if things do not improve. But, Bronco might recognize his predicament and take himself out of the picture. If he does not believe he can do the job, he will leave on his own.
Incremental improvements would be nice at BYU as well, not a sudden or a quick turnaround. How to measure that would be difficult. BYU is better than they were in 2010, but not as good as they were in 2011. Their defense is pretty good, but the offense has sputtered.
4. Ed Lamb: 1-5% chance he will not be back in 2013. SUU resides in the smallest market in all of Division I football, and I challenge anyone to prove otherwise. It may be almost impossible to succeed there. That I why I admire the job that Ed Lamb has done at Southern Utah. He deserves and should get the chance to coach somewhere bigger, and I suspect that someday, he will.
5. Gary Anderson: 0% chance he will not be back in 2013. He just signed a contract extension. He is getting paid a lot for a non-AQ head coach. He may take a job somewhere else, but where would he go? I don't know they guy personally. But I don't see him leaving for just any school that could double his salary. In fact, I think that there is only one job that Gary Anderson would leave Utah State for right now. That job is in Salt Lake City.
What if...
If BYU remained in the Mountain West Conference, how many games would they have won this year?
To answer that question, we have to determine who would have been the MWC this season. BYU's departure, most likely opened the door for Hawaii. First off, if BYU was in still in the MWC, Hawaii is still in the WAC. Second, who would be BYU's non-conference opponents? Most of BYU's schedule this season happened BECAUSE of independence. Only Boise State was on the schedule before independence. My guess is that BYU would have played USU in Logan. The 2 for 1 was done because USU needed games due to the diminished WAC and BYU's independence. Typically in the Bronco Mendenhall era, they play 2 BCS teams...one at home and one on the road. My hunch is that the non-conference schedule would have been Washington State and Hawaii at home with Utah and Utah State on the road. Boise State would still be on the schedule, but as a conference game. They would have played an 8-game conference schedule and for argument sake, I will leave New Mexico off the schedule. I think it would have looked like this:
A30 Washington State
S8 @ Air Force
S15 @ Utah
S20 BYE
S27 Hawaii
O5 @ Utah State
O13 San Diego State
O20 @ Fresno State
O27 Wyoming
N3 UNLV
N10 @ Colorado State
N17 Nevada
N27 @ Boise State
There is only 2 question marks with the schedule. Would the Utah State result been different playing USU in Logan? And would the result at Boise State been different playing them later in the season? That's hard to say. Perhaps the result of the Utah game is different considering there is still a conference championship to play for and BYU goes into Salt Lake not emotionally over-prepared. Let's say the results are the same. BYU also gets a 7-1 record in conference, goes to the Poinsettia Bowl and beats San Jose State. Only Fresno State would have been a real challenge. They still get a 10-win season and many of their problems go forgiven or unexposed because of the weaker conference schedule.
Let's say that BYU get the invite to the Big 12 instead of West Virginia. Same exercise, who are the non-conference games. My hunch is that BYU would have played Washington State and Utah State at home with Utah and Notre Dame on the road. They otherwise would have played West Virginia's schedule in conference.
A30 Washington State
S8 BYE
S15 @ Utah
S20 Baylor
S27 @ Texas
O5 Utah State
O13 @ Texas Tech
O20 Kansas State
O27 @ Notre Dame
N3 TCU
N10 @ Oklahoma State
N17 @ Iowa Sate
N27 Kansas
It can again be argued that the result of the Utah game is different for two reasons, a healthy Riley Nelson and BYU does not have so much riding on the game because they have a conference championship to play for. The Utah State game may be different because BYU might get beat up at Texas, where this year they had an easy game vs Hawaii before Utah State. But let's argue that the results of Utah and Utah State are the same because they were actually played. This year's BYU team only wins three games in the Big 12. Baylor, @Iowa Sate and Kansas. This means that BYU would have finished the regular season 5-7 with no bowl game. The only opportunity to turn that around is maybe you get TCU as a win this year because the game is in Provo and because of the problems with TCU's quarterback this year. Oklahoma State could be a win if you get them at home. They might, if they can play at a higher level than they have so far in 2012, come away with a 7-5 record and a possible trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl. In other words, they would be as good in the Big 12 as Utah has been in the PAC-12.
Here is the point: your conference matters, the level of competition is different. In the MWC, you could take a week off mentally, make a lot of unforced errors and still win most of your games. BYU had to get up for Air Force and a couple of other opponents every year, but not the entire schedule.
Finally, I think that that most people appreciate Bronco Mendenhall and what he has done at BYU. I am not the exception to this. It should be no secret, however, that if BYU is to continue in independence, or accept a bid to an elite conference, they need to be better than they are right now. Is Bronco Mendenhall up to the job? The level of play this year is fine for the MWC, but not for the path BYU wants to trod.
Gordon Monson is thinking the same thing that I am.
To answer that question, we have to determine who would have been the MWC this season. BYU's departure, most likely opened the door for Hawaii. First off, if BYU was in still in the MWC, Hawaii is still in the WAC. Second, who would be BYU's non-conference opponents? Most of BYU's schedule this season happened BECAUSE of independence. Only Boise State was on the schedule before independence. My guess is that BYU would have played USU in Logan. The 2 for 1 was done because USU needed games due to the diminished WAC and BYU's independence. Typically in the Bronco Mendenhall era, they play 2 BCS teams...one at home and one on the road. My hunch is that the non-conference schedule would have been Washington State and Hawaii at home with Utah and Utah State on the road. Boise State would still be on the schedule, but as a conference game. They would have played an 8-game conference schedule and for argument sake, I will leave New Mexico off the schedule. I think it would have looked like this:
A30 Washington State
S8 @ Air Force
S15 @ Utah
S20 BYE
S27 Hawaii
O5 @ Utah State
O13 San Diego State
O20 @ Fresno State
O27 Wyoming
N3 UNLV
N10 @ Colorado State
N17 Nevada
N27 @ Boise State
There is only 2 question marks with the schedule. Would the Utah State result been different playing USU in Logan? And would the result at Boise State been different playing them later in the season? That's hard to say. Perhaps the result of the Utah game is different considering there is still a conference championship to play for and BYU goes into Salt Lake not emotionally over-prepared. Let's say the results are the same. BYU also gets a 7-1 record in conference, goes to the Poinsettia Bowl and beats San Jose State. Only Fresno State would have been a real challenge. They still get a 10-win season and many of their problems go forgiven or unexposed because of the weaker conference schedule.
Let's say that BYU get the invite to the Big 12 instead of West Virginia. Same exercise, who are the non-conference games. My hunch is that BYU would have played Washington State and Utah State at home with Utah and Notre Dame on the road. They otherwise would have played West Virginia's schedule in conference.
A30 Washington State
S8 BYE
S15 @ Utah
S20 Baylor
S27 @ Texas
O5 Utah State
O13 @ Texas Tech
O20 Kansas State
O27 @ Notre Dame
N3 TCU
N10 @ Oklahoma State
N17 @ Iowa Sate
N27 Kansas
It can again be argued that the result of the Utah game is different for two reasons, a healthy Riley Nelson and BYU does not have so much riding on the game because they have a conference championship to play for. The Utah State game may be different because BYU might get beat up at Texas, where this year they had an easy game vs Hawaii before Utah State. But let's argue that the results of Utah and Utah State are the same because they were actually played. This year's BYU team only wins three games in the Big 12. Baylor, @Iowa Sate and Kansas. This means that BYU would have finished the regular season 5-7 with no bowl game. The only opportunity to turn that around is maybe you get TCU as a win this year because the game is in Provo and because of the problems with TCU's quarterback this year. Oklahoma State could be a win if you get them at home. They might, if they can play at a higher level than they have so far in 2012, come away with a 7-5 record and a possible trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl. In other words, they would be as good in the Big 12 as Utah has been in the PAC-12.
Here is the point: your conference matters, the level of competition is different. In the MWC, you could take a week off mentally, make a lot of unforced errors and still win most of your games. BYU had to get up for Air Force and a couple of other opponents every year, but not the entire schedule.
Finally, I think that that most people appreciate Bronco Mendenhall and what he has done at BYU. I am not the exception to this. It should be no secret, however, that if BYU is to continue in independence, or accept a bid to an elite conference, they need to be better than they are right now. Is Bronco Mendenhall up to the job? The level of play this year is fine for the MWC, but not for the path BYU wants to trod.
Gordon Monson is thinking the same thing that I am.
Monday, October 15, 2012
How the rest of the season looks for Utah's football teams.
BYU, currently 4-3
Remaining schedule
@Notre Dame
@Ga Tech
Idaho
@San Jose State
@New Mexico State
Best-case scenario
-Get a hard-fought but tough, although respect-earning, loss at Notre Dame
-Get a hard-fought 2-score win at Georgia Tech
-Get a 50-point win vs. Idaho where the starters rest the 2nd half
-Get a 2-score win at San Jose State
-Get a 30-point win at New Mexico State
-Get a 2-score win over Fresno State in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish 9-4
Worst-case scenario
-Get blown out by Notre Dame
-Get a hard-fought close loss at Georgia Tech
-Get a two-score win vs. Idaho
-Lose a close game to San Jose State
-Beat New Mexico State by 1 touchdown to secure bowl eligibility
-Fall in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish 6-7
Most likely scenario
-Suffer a 2-score loss to Notre Dame
-Suffer a close one-score loss at Geogia Tech, possibly in overtime
-Win by 40+ points vs. Idaho
-Earn a tough, one score win at San Jose State, possibly in overtime
-Win by 20+ points at New Mexico State
-Lose a close game in the Poinsettia Bowl to Fresno State, possibly in overtime to finish 8-5
-Bronco Mendenhall leaves BYU to become the president in the newly-created California Fullerton Mission and is replaced by Kalani Sitake.
Utah
Remaining schedule, currently 2-4
@Oregon State
California
Washington State
@Washington
Arizona
@Colorado
best case scenario
-Suffer a close, but respectable loss to Oregon State
-Win easily vs California
-Win easily vs Washington State
-Win a close, hard-fought game at Washington
-Win a 2-score game vs. Arizona
-Beat Colorado easily
-Lose to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 7-6
worst-case scenario
-Get blown out by Oregon State
-Suffer a close, hard-fought loss to California
-Suffer another close, hard-fought loss to Washington State
-Lose by 7-10 at Washington
-Suffer yet another heartbreaking loss to Arizona
-Beat Colorado by a touchdown and finish 3-9
most-likely scenario
-Lose by 17-20 at Oregon State
-Eek out a close, hard-fought win vs. California
-Win by 1-2 touchdowns vs. Washington State
-Lose a close, hard-fought game at Washington
-Win a close, hard-fought battle vs. Arizona
-Beat Colorado easily to become bowl eligible
-Beat Air Force in the New Mexico Bowl to finish 7-6
-Star Lotulelei is drafted in the first round by the Saints
Utah State, currently 5-2
Remaining schedule
New Mexico State
@ UTSA
Texas State
@Louisiana Tech
Idaho
Best case scenario
-Win by 40+ vs New Mexico State
-Win easily at UTSA
-Win by 40+ vs Texas State
-Earn a close, hard-fought win vs. Louisiana TEch
-Beat Idaho by an unfathomably-lopsided score
-Easily beat Toledo in the Famous Potato Bowl to finish 11-2
Worst-case scenario
-Win a unexpectedly hard-fought game vs. New Mexico State
-Suffer an close loss at UTSA
-Win by 20+ vs. Texas State
-Lose to Louisiana Tech by 17-20 points
-Beat Idaho by 40+ points
-Lose a close game to Toledo in the Famous Potato Bowl to finish 9-4
Most likely scenario
-Beat New Mexico State by 30+ points
-Win by 2+ touchdowns at UTSA
-Win by 30+ vs. Texas State
-Earn at tough, but hard fought victory vs Louisiana Tech
-Beat Idaho by 50+
-Earn a hard-fought, but satisfying Potato Bowl to finish 11-2
-Gary Anderson says no to offers to both California and BYU to return to the Aggies
Weber State
Remaining games
@Southern Utah
Montana
Northern Colorado
@Idaho State
Best-case scenario
-Lose a close, hard-fought game at Southern Utah
-Surprise Montana, possibly in overtime
-Beat Northern Colorado by 20+
-Earn a 2+ score victory at Idaho State to finish 3-8
Worst-case scenario
-Lose at Southern Utah by 2+ scores
-Get blown out vs. Montana
-Suffer a close, hard-fought loss to Northern Colorado
-Suffer a 2+ score loss at Idaho State to finish 0-11
Most-likely scenario
-Lose at Southern Utah in a close, hard fought game
-Lose another tough-luck game vs. Montana
-Win a tough, hard-fought game vs. Northern Colorado
-Lose a tough, hard-fought game at Idaho State to finish 1-10
-Weber State hires long-time BYU assistant Lance Reynolds as new head coach.
Southern Utah, currently 4-3
Remaining games
Weber State
Eastern Washington
@North Dakota
@Northern Arizona
Best Case scenario
-Beat Weber State easily
-Earn a tough, upset vs. Eastern Washington
-Earn a tough, one-score victory at North Dakota
-Surprise Northern Arizona
-Beat Bethune-Cookman in the play-in round of the FCS playoffs
-Lose at North Dakota State in the FCS 2nd round to finish 9-4
Worst Case Scenario
-Lose a tough, hard fought game vs. Weber State
-Blown out at home to Eastern Washington
-Lose to North Dakota by 2+ scores
-Lose at Northern Arizona to finish 3-8
Most likely scenario
-Beat Weber State by 10-17 points.
-Lose a close, hard-fought game to Eastern Washington
-Lose another heartbreaker to North Dakota
-Lose another close game to Northern Arizona to finish 4-7
Brad Sorensen signs a free-agent contract with the BC Lions of the CFL and has a long career.
Remaining schedule
@Notre Dame
@Ga Tech
Idaho
@San Jose State
@New Mexico State
Best-case scenario
-Get a hard-fought but tough, although respect-earning, loss at Notre Dame
-Get a hard-fought 2-score win at Georgia Tech
-Get a 50-point win vs. Idaho where the starters rest the 2nd half
-Get a 2-score win at San Jose State
-Get a 30-point win at New Mexico State
-Get a 2-score win over Fresno State in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish 9-4
Worst-case scenario
-Get blown out by Notre Dame
-Get a hard-fought close loss at Georgia Tech
-Get a two-score win vs. Idaho
-Lose a close game to San Jose State
-Beat New Mexico State by 1 touchdown to secure bowl eligibility
-Fall in the Poinsettia Bowl to finish 6-7
Most likely scenario
-Suffer a 2-score loss to Notre Dame
-Suffer a close one-score loss at Geogia Tech, possibly in overtime
-Win by 40+ points vs. Idaho
-Earn a tough, one score win at San Jose State, possibly in overtime
-Win by 20+ points at New Mexico State
-Lose a close game in the Poinsettia Bowl to Fresno State, possibly in overtime to finish 8-5
-Bronco Mendenhall leaves BYU to become the president in the newly-created California Fullerton Mission and is replaced by Kalani Sitake.
Utah
Remaining schedule, currently 2-4
@Oregon State
California
Washington State
@Washington
Arizona
@Colorado
best case scenario
-Suffer a close, but respectable loss to Oregon State
-Win easily vs California
-Win easily vs Washington State
-Win a close, hard-fought game at Washington
-Win a 2-score game vs. Arizona
-Beat Colorado easily
-Lose to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl to finish 7-6
worst-case scenario
-Get blown out by Oregon State
-Suffer a close, hard-fought loss to California
-Suffer another close, hard-fought loss to Washington State
-Lose by 7-10 at Washington
-Suffer yet another heartbreaking loss to Arizona
-Beat Colorado by a touchdown and finish 3-9
most-likely scenario
-Lose by 17-20 at Oregon State
-Eek out a close, hard-fought win vs. California
-Win by 1-2 touchdowns vs. Washington State
-Lose a close, hard-fought game at Washington
-Win a close, hard-fought battle vs. Arizona
-Beat Colorado easily to become bowl eligible
-Beat Air Force in the New Mexico Bowl to finish 7-6
-Star Lotulelei is drafted in the first round by the Saints
Utah State, currently 5-2
Remaining schedule
New Mexico State
@ UTSA
Texas State
@Louisiana Tech
Idaho
Best case scenario
-Win by 40+ vs New Mexico State
-Win easily at UTSA
-Win by 40+ vs Texas State
-Earn a close, hard-fought win vs. Louisiana TEch
-Beat Idaho by an unfathomably-lopsided score
-Easily beat Toledo in the Famous Potato Bowl to finish 11-2
Worst-case scenario
-Win a unexpectedly hard-fought game vs. New Mexico State
-Suffer an close loss at UTSA
-Win by 20+ vs. Texas State
-Lose to Louisiana Tech by 17-20 points
-Beat Idaho by 40+ points
-Lose a close game to Toledo in the Famous Potato Bowl to finish 9-4
Most likely scenario
-Beat New Mexico State by 30+ points
-Win by 2+ touchdowns at UTSA
-Win by 30+ vs. Texas State
-Earn at tough, but hard fought victory vs Louisiana Tech
-Beat Idaho by 50+
-Earn a hard-fought, but satisfying Potato Bowl to finish 11-2
-Gary Anderson says no to offers to both California and BYU to return to the Aggies
Weber State
Remaining games
@Southern Utah
Montana
Northern Colorado
@Idaho State
Best-case scenario
-Lose a close, hard-fought game at Southern Utah
-Surprise Montana, possibly in overtime
-Beat Northern Colorado by 20+
-Earn a 2+ score victory at Idaho State to finish 3-8
Worst-case scenario
-Lose at Southern Utah by 2+ scores
-Get blown out vs. Montana
-Suffer a close, hard-fought loss to Northern Colorado
-Suffer a 2+ score loss at Idaho State to finish 0-11
Most-likely scenario
-Lose at Southern Utah in a close, hard fought game
-Lose another tough-luck game vs. Montana
-Win a tough, hard-fought game vs. Northern Colorado
-Lose a tough, hard-fought game at Idaho State to finish 1-10
-Weber State hires long-time BYU assistant Lance Reynolds as new head coach.
Southern Utah, currently 4-3
Remaining games
Weber State
Eastern Washington
@North Dakota
@Northern Arizona
Best Case scenario
-Beat Weber State easily
-Earn a tough, upset vs. Eastern Washington
-Earn a tough, one-score victory at North Dakota
-Surprise Northern Arizona
-Beat Bethune-Cookman in the play-in round of the FCS playoffs
-Lose at North Dakota State in the FCS 2nd round to finish 9-4
Worst Case Scenario
-Lose a tough, hard fought game vs. Weber State
-Blown out at home to Eastern Washington
-Lose to North Dakota by 2+ scores
-Lose at Northern Arizona to finish 3-8
Most likely scenario
-Beat Weber State by 10-17 points.
-Lose a close, hard-fought game to Eastern Washington
-Lose another heartbreaker to North Dakota
-Lose another close game to Northern Arizona to finish 4-7
Brad Sorensen signs a free-agent contract with the BC Lions of the CFL and has a long career.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Am I still rooting for Coach Jody Sears?
Yes, I am still hoping that he will find a way to succeed this season. I thought that he would need 4 wins to remove the interim tag from his title. He has 4 games left of the season. None of those 4 teams currently has a winning record. However, it does not seem likely that Weber State can expect to win more than 2 of them. If they can win all 4, then Sears should be back as the head coach last season.
Southern Utah has a senior quarterback in Brad Sorensen and has been close in their two conference losses have each been by a single score. The team is probably better than their 3-4 record as they also began the season on the road against 2 FBS teams.
Montana is not having a good season this year by Montana standards, but will probably be back to +.500 by the time they come to Ogden at the end of the month. Weber gets them after the bye week, and could decide during the bye week to replace turnover-prone and inconsistent senior Mike Hoke with junior Jordan Adamczyk or redshirt freshman Ben Maraz to prepare for next season. They could catch the Grizzlies reeling or they could catch them motivated.
Northern Colorado and Idaho are where they have been the last three seasons, so very far behind the rest of the Big Sky Conference that they can't buy a win. But if Weber can't figure out how to play consistently on offense, these games are not guaranteed wins.
Weber State has never been winless in their history. In 2003 and in 1975, Weber earned a win in their last home game. The last home game this season is against Northern Colorado.
To become the new head coach, WSU is probably not going to go very far from Ogden, get someone with local recruiting ties and someone who understands how to deal with LDS missionaries. Finally, someone who is likely to stay for a while and not leave if the 'Cats get a little success. Here is a list of likely candidates to become the permanent head coach.
Idaho Head Coach and WSU alum Robb Akey
Former assistant Don Eck
Former Boise State and Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins
Colorado State assistant Dave Baldwin
Utah State defensive coordinator Dave Aranda
Utah assistant Morgan Scalley
BYU assistant Lance Reynolds
Southern Utah has a senior quarterback in Brad Sorensen and has been close in their two conference losses have each been by a single score. The team is probably better than their 3-4 record as they also began the season on the road against 2 FBS teams.
Montana is not having a good season this year by Montana standards, but will probably be back to +.500 by the time they come to Ogden at the end of the month. Weber gets them after the bye week, and could decide during the bye week to replace turnover-prone and inconsistent senior Mike Hoke with junior Jordan Adamczyk or redshirt freshman Ben Maraz to prepare for next season. They could catch the Grizzlies reeling or they could catch them motivated.
Northern Colorado and Idaho are where they have been the last three seasons, so very far behind the rest of the Big Sky Conference that they can't buy a win. But if Weber can't figure out how to play consistently on offense, these games are not guaranteed wins.
Weber State has never been winless in their history. In 2003 and in 1975, Weber earned a win in their last home game. The last home game this season is against Northern Colorado.
To become the new head coach, WSU is probably not going to go very far from Ogden, get someone with local recruiting ties and someone who understands how to deal with LDS missionaries. Finally, someone who is likely to stay for a while and not leave if the 'Cats get a little success. Here is a list of likely candidates to become the permanent head coach.
Idaho Head Coach and WSU alum Robb Akey
Former assistant Don Eck
Former Boise State and Colorado head coach Dan Hawkins
Colorado State assistant Dave Baldwin
Utah State defensive coordinator Dave Aranda
Utah assistant Morgan Scalley
BYU assistant Lance Reynolds
When was the last time?
The last time that BYU beat a ranked team?
2009 Las Vegas Bowl over #20 Oregon State.
The last time that BYU beat a ranked team at home?
2009 season over #22 Utah.
Last time BYU beat a ranked non-conference opponent.
2009 season over Oklahoma
Last time BYU beat a ranked non-conference team at home?
1996 season over #24 Texas A&M
Last time BYU beat a Top 10 team
2009 Season over Oklahoma
Last time BYU beat a Top 10 team at home?
1990 Season over #1 Miami
2009 Las Vegas Bowl over #20 Oregon State.
The last time that BYU beat a ranked team at home?
2009 season over #22 Utah.
Last time BYU beat a ranked non-conference opponent.
2009 season over Oklahoma
Last time BYU beat a ranked non-conference team at home?
1996 season over #24 Texas A&M
Last time BYU beat a Top 10 team
2009 Season over Oklahoma
Last time BYU beat a Top 10 team at home?
1990 Season over #1 Miami
Saturday, October 13, 2012
Report on the Games 10/13/2012
UCLA 21 Utah 14
Utah's defense did a very good job at times at keeping the UCLA offense in check, but the offense, now led by freshman Travis Wilson was mediocre. The Utes were not all that terrible on offense throwing the ball, but the running game was virtually gone. John White IV had only 44 yards rushing, but only had 11 rushes. That is probably not going to get the job done in the future.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
Oregon State 42 BYU 24
The Cougars went toe to toe with the Beavers for 3 and 1/2 quarters. The game was tied at 21 when the third quarter ended. But the Beavers roughed up the Cougars 21-3 in the final frame. The Beavers figured out how to break through the previously impregnable Cougar defense through the air. The game was really won by the Beaver offensive line, which kept QB Cody Vaz with a clean jersey most of the game. Riley Nelson was scrambling most of the game and made a few too many forced errors, including a pick-6. Considering this, perhaps BYU fans should consider themselves lucky the team was even in the game after 3 quarters. The BYU running game also dissipated, but Jamaal Williams did have some success with shovel passes.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Utah State 49 San Jose State 27
In another game that probably was not as close as the final score indicated, Utah State ran away from San Jose State on the road. Kerwynn Williams broke two long scores. The Aggie defense earned 13 sacks. USU scored late in the first half to take a 28-20 lead into the locker room, but the 2nd half was all Agg
USU MVP: RB Kerwynn Williams
Southern Utah 30 Montana 20
The Thunderbirds finally earned the Big Sky breakthrough they had been so close to the past two weeks. Brad Sorensen engineered two 4th quarter drives to stun the Grizzlies in Missoula. The first set up a 38-yard Colton Cook field goal and the 2nd resulted in a Crawford Harris 34 yard run. The T-Birds keep their post-season and conference championship hopes, although very slim, alive for now and the loss knocks Montana out of the conference and post-season race.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
Sacramento State 19 Weber State 14
Weber State is still winless this season. Not much offense to speak of by either team. The real telling stat of the game was Weber's 3.9 yards per pass completion. This means that several passes, screen passes, went for 2 yards or less. This, and the 3rd safety, shows that Sacramento State put together a pretty good defensive effort to extend Weber State's winless streak. This loss likely means that Weber State will not remove the "interim" tag from Jody Sears title and will soon begin the search for a new permanent head coach.
WSU MVP: None Selected.
Utah's defense did a very good job at times at keeping the UCLA offense in check, but the offense, now led by freshman Travis Wilson was mediocre. The Utes were not all that terrible on offense throwing the ball, but the running game was virtually gone. John White IV had only 44 yards rushing, but only had 11 rushes. That is probably not going to get the job done in the future.
Utah MVP: QB Travis Wilson
Oregon State 42 BYU 24
The Cougars went toe to toe with the Beavers for 3 and 1/2 quarters. The game was tied at 21 when the third quarter ended. But the Beavers roughed up the Cougars 21-3 in the final frame. The Beavers figured out how to break through the previously impregnable Cougar defense through the air. The game was really won by the Beaver offensive line, which kept QB Cody Vaz with a clean jersey most of the game. Riley Nelson was scrambling most of the game and made a few too many forced errors, including a pick-6. Considering this, perhaps BYU fans should consider themselves lucky the team was even in the game after 3 quarters. The BYU running game also dissipated, but Jamaal Williams did have some success with shovel passes.
BYU MVP: WR Cody Hoffman
Utah State 49 San Jose State 27
In another game that probably was not as close as the final score indicated, Utah State ran away from San Jose State on the road. Kerwynn Williams broke two long scores. The Aggie defense earned 13 sacks. USU scored late in the first half to take a 28-20 lead into the locker room, but the 2nd half was all Agg
USU MVP: RB Kerwynn Williams
Southern Utah 30 Montana 20
The Thunderbirds finally earned the Big Sky breakthrough they had been so close to the past two weeks. Brad Sorensen engineered two 4th quarter drives to stun the Grizzlies in Missoula. The first set up a 38-yard Colton Cook field goal and the 2nd resulted in a Crawford Harris 34 yard run. The T-Birds keep their post-season and conference championship hopes, although very slim, alive for now and the loss knocks Montana out of the conference and post-season race.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen
Sacramento State 19 Weber State 14
Weber State is still winless this season. Not much offense to speak of by either team. The real telling stat of the game was Weber's 3.9 yards per pass completion. This means that several passes, screen passes, went for 2 yards or less. This, and the 3rd safety, shows that Sacramento State put together a pretty good defensive effort to extend Weber State's winless streak. This loss likely means that Weber State will not remove the "interim" tag from Jody Sears title and will soon begin the search for a new permanent head coach.
WSU MVP: None Selected.
If Bronco Mendenall Were to Leave BYU after This Seaon...
If Bronco Mendenhall were to leave BYU after this season, here is the likely short list of candidates to replace him.
Ed Lamb, Head Coach, Southern Utah University
Ken Nuimatalolo, Head Coach, US Naval Academy
Darrell Bevel, Offensive Coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
Kalani Sitake, Defensive Coordinator, University of Utah and BYU Alum
Andy Ludwig, San Diego State Offensive Coordinator
Steve Kafusi, Current Defensive Line Coach
Paul Tidwell, Current Linebackers Coach
Names left off the list because there is little chance any would come to BYU or little chance they could be successful right away.
Andy Reid, HC Philadelphia Eagles, BYU Alum
Kyle Whittingham, HC Utah, BYU Alum
Gary Anderson, HC Utah State, Rick's College Alum
Ty Detmer, Current High School Coach in Texas, BYU Alum
Breaking down Bronco Mendenhall's record as of post 10/13 loss vs. Oregon State
70-26 (.729) Overall
11-13 (.458) vs BCS Opponents (Includes 2 losses to Utah in 2011 and 2012)
3-5 (.375) vs Utah
2-5 (.286) vs TCU
54-6 (.900) vs Everyone Else
The 6 losses to non-BCS, and non-Utah/TCU?
Boise State 2012
Air Force 2010
Nevada 2010
Utah State 2010
Tulsa 2007
San Diego State 2005
Only Utah State in 2010 and San Diego State in 2005 finished with losing records.
Bronco Mendenhall has never lost to Colorado State, Central Florida, Idaho, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Hawaii, UNLV, San Jose State, Tulane, UTEP, Washington nor Wyoming. He has only one loss to Air Force, Utah State, Tulsa and San Diego State whom he has played more than once. He has never lost to an FCS opponent. He has never beaten Boston College, Florida State nor Nevada. Bronco has yet to lose a bowl game to a non-BCS team.
The 11 wins vs. BCS Opposition
Washington State 2012 (2-5 so far in 2012)
Ole Miss 2011 (2-10 in 2011)
Oregon State 2011 (3-9 in 2011)
Washington 2010 (7-6 in 2011)
Oklahoma 2009 (8-5 in 2009)
Oregon State 2009 Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2009)
Washington 2008 (0-12 in 2008)
UCLA 2008 (4-8 in 2008)
Arizona 2007 (5-7 in 2007)
UCLA 2007 Las Vegas Bowl (6-7 in 2007)
Oregon 2006 Las Vegas Bowl (7-6 in 2006)
5 of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records. 3 wins were in bowl games. Bronco has beaten 2 BCS-level teams that finished with a winning record. Washington in 2012 in Provo and Oklahoma in 2009 at a neutral field.
13 losses to BCS Opposition
2012 vs. Oregon State (Oregon State is 6-0 so far in 2012)
2012 vs. Utah (Utah is 2-4 so far in 2012)
2011 vs. Texas (8-5 in 2011)
2011 vs. Utah (8-5 in 2011)
2010 vs. Florida State (10-4 in 2010)
2009 vs. Florida State (7-6 in 2009)
2008 vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2008)
2007 vs. UCLA (6-7 in 2007)
2006 vs. Arizona (6-6 in 2006)
2006 vs. Boston College (10-3 in 2006)
2005 vs. California in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-4 in 2005)
2005 vs. Notre Dame (9-3 in 2005)
2005 vs. Boston College (9-3 in 2005)
2 of the 13 losses came to teams with losing records. 1 against a .500 team. 1 loss to a sub .500 team was at home and one was on the road.
Bronco Mendenhall vs. BCS (Assuming Utah finishes below .500 this year and Oregon State finishes above .500)
3-2 vs BCS in Bowl Games
2-10 vs BCS teams that finished with winning records
0-1 vs. BCS teams at .500
6-2 vs. BCS teams below .500
If this pattern holds, BYU will lose to Notre Dame as they are above .500, beat Georgia Tech as they are below .500, beat Idaho, beat to San Jose State and beat New Mexico State. They will win the bowl game because it is not against a BCS team. And will finish the season 9-4.
Usually coaches that finish with winning records keep their jobs, unless they perform poorly against rivals or the progress of the program stagnates.
If Bronco stays at BYU, you will likely see them win 6-9 games in the regular season depending on the caliber of teams they play. It is unlikely that you will see Bronco's teams ever go undefeated and earn a spot in one of the big bowl games. If BYU were in a BCS-caliber conference, you would see them win 4-7 games every season, but never win a conference championship. The question for BYU and it's fans...are you OK with this level of performance or do you want better? Can one of the six men lead the team to something better? More on this to come in future blogs.
Ed Lamb, Head Coach, Southern Utah University
Ken Nuimatalolo, Head Coach, US Naval Academy
Darrell Bevel, Offensive Coordinator, Seattle Seahawks
Kalani Sitake, Defensive Coordinator, University of Utah and BYU Alum
Andy Ludwig, San Diego State Offensive Coordinator
Steve Kafusi, Current Defensive Line Coach
Paul Tidwell, Current Linebackers Coach
Names left off the list because there is little chance any would come to BYU or little chance they could be successful right away.
Andy Reid, HC Philadelphia Eagles, BYU Alum
Kyle Whittingham, HC Utah, BYU Alum
Gary Anderson, HC Utah State, Rick's College Alum
Ty Detmer, Current High School Coach in Texas, BYU Alum
Breaking down Bronco Mendenhall's record as of post 10/13 loss vs. Oregon State
70-26 (.729) Overall
11-13 (.458) vs BCS Opponents (Includes 2 losses to Utah in 2011 and 2012)
3-5 (.375) vs Utah
2-5 (.286) vs TCU
54-6 (.900) vs Everyone Else
The 6 losses to non-BCS, and non-Utah/TCU?
Boise State 2012
Air Force 2010
Nevada 2010
Utah State 2010
Tulsa 2007
San Diego State 2005
Only Utah State in 2010 and San Diego State in 2005 finished with losing records.
Bronco Mendenhall has never lost to Colorado State, Central Florida, Idaho, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Hawaii, UNLV, San Jose State, Tulane, UTEP, Washington nor Wyoming. He has only one loss to Air Force, Utah State, Tulsa and San Diego State whom he has played more than once. He has never lost to an FCS opponent. He has never beaten Boston College, Florida State nor Nevada. Bronco has yet to lose a bowl game to a non-BCS team.
The 11 wins vs. BCS Opposition
Washington State 2012 (2-5 so far in 2012)
Ole Miss 2011 (2-10 in 2011)
Oregon State 2011 (3-9 in 2011)
Washington 2010 (7-6 in 2011)
Oklahoma 2009 (8-5 in 2009)
Oregon State 2009 Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2009)
Washington 2008 (0-12 in 2008)
UCLA 2008 (4-8 in 2008)
Arizona 2007 (5-7 in 2007)
UCLA 2007 Las Vegas Bowl (6-7 in 2007)
Oregon 2006 Las Vegas Bowl (7-6 in 2006)
5 of those 11 wins came against teams with winning records. 3 wins were in bowl games. Bronco has beaten 2 BCS-level teams that finished with a winning record. Washington in 2012 in Provo and Oklahoma in 2009 at a neutral field.
13 losses to BCS Opposition
2012 vs. Oregon State (Oregon State is 6-0 so far in 2012)
2012 vs. Utah (Utah is 2-4 so far in 2012)
2011 vs. Texas (8-5 in 2011)
2011 vs. Utah (8-5 in 2011)
2010 vs. Florida State (10-4 in 2010)
2009 vs. Florida State (7-6 in 2009)
2008 vs. Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-5 in 2008)
2007 vs. UCLA (6-7 in 2007)
2006 vs. Arizona (6-6 in 2006)
2006 vs. Boston College (10-3 in 2006)
2005 vs. California in the Las Vegas Bowl (8-4 in 2005)
2005 vs. Notre Dame (9-3 in 2005)
2005 vs. Boston College (9-3 in 2005)
2 of the 13 losses came to teams with losing records. 1 against a .500 team. 1 loss to a sub .500 team was at home and one was on the road.
Bronco Mendenhall vs. BCS (Assuming Utah finishes below .500 this year and Oregon State finishes above .500)
3-2 vs BCS in Bowl Games
2-10 vs BCS teams that finished with winning records
0-1 vs. BCS teams at .500
6-2 vs. BCS teams below .500
If this pattern holds, BYU will lose to Notre Dame as they are above .500, beat Georgia Tech as they are below .500, beat Idaho, beat to San Jose State and beat New Mexico State. They will win the bowl game because it is not against a BCS team. And will finish the season 9-4.
Usually coaches that finish with winning records keep their jobs, unless they perform poorly against rivals or the progress of the program stagnates.
If Bronco stays at BYU, you will likely see them win 6-9 games in the regular season depending on the caliber of teams they play. It is unlikely that you will see Bronco's teams ever go undefeated and earn a spot in one of the big bowl games. If BYU were in a BCS-caliber conference, you would see them win 4-7 games every season, but never win a conference championship. The question for BYU and it's fans...are you OK with this level of performance or do you want better? Can one of the six men lead the team to something better? More on this to come in future blogs.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Two Years Later...Was Montana's Choice a Mistake?
Two years ago, the University of Montana spurned the WAC and a chance to move up to the Football Bowl Subdivision. At the time, they expressed concern that the higher revenue in the FBS would not make up the cost of the additional scholarships and the additional Women's sports teams. In reality, there was probably concern about the stability of the Western Athletic Conference. There were also concerns that Montana State would have needed to make the move with Montana.
The concern about the WAC was not unfounded. After 2013, the WAC will no longer sponsor football as a conference and is struggling to rebuild as a non-football conference, like the Big West. The first question to answer is this: Did Montana's choice doom the WAC?
When the WAC approached six other Big Sky Schools about joining after Montana said no. Each of these schools (we do not know for certain who they were, but I believe Portland State, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State, UC Davis, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona were the likely targets) also spurned the WAC. These schools seemed to follow Montana's lead. It is logical that some of these six schools would have followed Montana to the WAC had they chosen differently. It is also possible that schools outside of the Big Sky Conference like Missouri State, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State or Lamar would have followed Montana into the WAC. With stability, the WAC could have kept Texas State and UT San Antonio. Montana's choice was probably the beginning of the end of WAC football.
Second question, would Montana have been better off in the WAC than in the Big Sky? Certainly football would have brought in more money, but sports would have been more expensive. There are other questions, would the move to the FBS brought more money to Basketball? Would the greater exposure at the FBS level made recruiting LESS expensive? We probably will not be able to answer these questions for certain. However, if the FCS is really a better place to be, why are Idaho and New Mexico State fighting reclassification?
Third question, is the door closed for Montana to move to the FBS? Let's answer that question with another question. Does the Mountain West Conference like Montana? And let's answer that question with yet another question. What is the big problem the Mountain West have right now? It has to be TV revenue and exposure. If it were not for this problem, wouldn't Boise State, BYU and San Diego State still be in the MWC? How is the MWC going to fight this problem. If they expand again, they need to go with schools that are in big markets, even if the football program is a few years away from competing. The probably means that Missoula and Montana are not on the MW radar right now.
Here is a look at the Big Sky Conference and the TV markets they represent.
1. Sacramento, CA (Sacramento State and UC Davis)...2,600,000. Closest FBS School, California (Berkeley) 75 miles.
2. Portland, OR (Portland State)...2,260,000. Closest FBS School, Oregon State (Corvallis) 81 miles.
3. Spokane, WA (Eastern Washington)...614,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 64 miles.
4. Ogden, UT (Weber State)...547,000. Closest FBS School, Utah (Salt Lake City) 40 miles.
5. Missoula, MT (Montana)...110,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 250 miles.
6. Grand Forks, ND (North Dakota) 98,000. Closest FBS School, Minnesota (Minneapolis) 314 miles.
7. Greeley, CO (Northern Colorado)...92,000. Closest FBS School, Colorado State (Fort Collins) 32 miles.
8. Pocatello, ID (Idaho State)...90,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 105 miles.
9. Bozeman, MT (Montana State)...89,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 350 miles.
10. Flagstaff, AZ (Northern Arizona)...60,000. Closest FBS School, Arizona State (Tempe) 135 miles.
11. San Louis Obispo, CA (Cal Poly)...45,000. Closest FBS School, Fresno State (Fresno) 130 miles.
12. Cedar City, UT (Southern Utah) 29,000. Closest FBS School, UNLV (Las Vegas) 174 miles
I know all of the caviats and counter arguments. I know that Cal Poly is the only Division I school in the Central Coast, and that area represents over 3 million people. I know that Montana brings in fans from all over the state. I know that Montana State alumni and Montana alumni are all over the west, there is even an Montana alum in my LDS ward here in Ogden. I know that Portland is filled with Oregon, Oregon State and Washington alumni. Etc. They are not lost on me.
There is no more fighting for BCS AQ status after 2013, it does not exist anymore. The success that a program like Montana has had in recent seasons will not help the MWC get what no longer exists. But adding Portland State and their market may help the MWC get a better TV deal, even if the Vikings are cellar dwellers for a few years.
Right now, the conventional wisdom is that the MWC is holding two spots open for Boise State and San Diego state to return IF the Big East fails. (The Big East will likely fail if it can't hold on to Louisville and others and if it can't lure BYU out of independence.) But if that happens, SMU, Houston, Memphis and Central Florida are also looking for a home, and Conference USA has not left the light on for them. It is possible that a new conference will coalesce from the ashes of the Big East and where will that conference go to fill out?
If the MWC can't improve it's TV revenue, it could end up suffering the same fate as the WAC. They will lose their big market programs beginning with Fresno State or Air Force. Then why wouldn't Nevada, UNLV and Hawaii follow suit. Maybe even New Mexico and San Jose State will go. The conference will be left with just a few micro-market schools like Utah State, Wyoming and Colorado State to scratch the dregs of the college football world for loose change. The perfect conference for Idaho and New Mexico State to feel right at home. That version of the MWC will be no more attractive to Montana than the WAC was 2 years ago. The MW needs a bigger market than Missoula to save it from this fate. If it has to go to the FCS for new members, it needs markets like Portland and Sacramento.
It is likely that Montana will never get another chance to move to the FBS, unless 2 million people move to Western Montana. But who want THAT? There is a certain charm about the emptiness of the Treasure State. (The postal code for Montana is MT (empty)). People move there and visit to get away from the city. Of course, two years ago, who would have believed that the College Football world would have moved to a playoff. The regents at the Montana University System can't completely be blamed for this. Of course, back in 2010, people thought that Montana would get another crack at the FBS if they spurned the WAC. But there is no reason to sit back and regret what has happened. The Grizzlies should go on and win more championships and keep being the way that they are and have been.
As for the MW? The likely targets should the give up on Boise State and San Diego State coming back are in Texas. My money now is on UTEP and UTSA.
The concern about the WAC was not unfounded. After 2013, the WAC will no longer sponsor football as a conference and is struggling to rebuild as a non-football conference, like the Big West. The first question to answer is this: Did Montana's choice doom the WAC?
When the WAC approached six other Big Sky Schools about joining after Montana said no. Each of these schools (we do not know for certain who they were, but I believe Portland State, Eastern Washington, Sacramento State, UC Davis, Cal Poly and Northern Arizona were the likely targets) also spurned the WAC. These schools seemed to follow Montana's lead. It is logical that some of these six schools would have followed Montana to the WAC had they chosen differently. It is also possible that schools outside of the Big Sky Conference like Missouri State, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston State or Lamar would have followed Montana into the WAC. With stability, the WAC could have kept Texas State and UT San Antonio. Montana's choice was probably the beginning of the end of WAC football.
Second question, would Montana have been better off in the WAC than in the Big Sky? Certainly football would have brought in more money, but sports would have been more expensive. There are other questions, would the move to the FBS brought more money to Basketball? Would the greater exposure at the FBS level made recruiting LESS expensive? We probably will not be able to answer these questions for certain. However, if the FCS is really a better place to be, why are Idaho and New Mexico State fighting reclassification?
Third question, is the door closed for Montana to move to the FBS? Let's answer that question with another question. Does the Mountain West Conference like Montana? And let's answer that question with yet another question. What is the big problem the Mountain West have right now? It has to be TV revenue and exposure. If it were not for this problem, wouldn't Boise State, BYU and San Diego State still be in the MWC? How is the MWC going to fight this problem. If they expand again, they need to go with schools that are in big markets, even if the football program is a few years away from competing. The probably means that Missoula and Montana are not on the MW radar right now.
Here is a look at the Big Sky Conference and the TV markets they represent.
1. Sacramento, CA (Sacramento State and UC Davis)...2,600,000. Closest FBS School, California (Berkeley) 75 miles.
2. Portland, OR (Portland State)...2,260,000. Closest FBS School, Oregon State (Corvallis) 81 miles.
3. Spokane, WA (Eastern Washington)...614,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 64 miles.
4. Ogden, UT (Weber State)...547,000. Closest FBS School, Utah (Salt Lake City) 40 miles.
5. Missoula, MT (Montana)...110,000. Closest FBS School, Idaho (Moscow, ID) 250 miles.
6. Grand Forks, ND (North Dakota) 98,000. Closest FBS School, Minnesota (Minneapolis) 314 miles.
7. Greeley, CO (Northern Colorado)...92,000. Closest FBS School, Colorado State (Fort Collins) 32 miles.
8. Pocatello, ID (Idaho State)...90,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 105 miles.
9. Bozeman, MT (Montana State)...89,000. Closest FBS School, Utah State (Logan, UT) 350 miles.
10. Flagstaff, AZ (Northern Arizona)...60,000. Closest FBS School, Arizona State (Tempe) 135 miles.
11. San Louis Obispo, CA (Cal Poly)...45,000. Closest FBS School, Fresno State (Fresno) 130 miles.
12. Cedar City, UT (Southern Utah) 29,000. Closest FBS School, UNLV (Las Vegas) 174 miles
I know all of the caviats and counter arguments. I know that Cal Poly is the only Division I school in the Central Coast, and that area represents over 3 million people. I know that Montana brings in fans from all over the state. I know that Montana State alumni and Montana alumni are all over the west, there is even an Montana alum in my LDS ward here in Ogden. I know that Portland is filled with Oregon, Oregon State and Washington alumni. Etc. They are not lost on me.
There is no more fighting for BCS AQ status after 2013, it does not exist anymore. The success that a program like Montana has had in recent seasons will not help the MWC get what no longer exists. But adding Portland State and their market may help the MWC get a better TV deal, even if the Vikings are cellar dwellers for a few years.
Right now, the conventional wisdom is that the MWC is holding two spots open for Boise State and San Diego state to return IF the Big East fails. (The Big East will likely fail if it can't hold on to Louisville and others and if it can't lure BYU out of independence.) But if that happens, SMU, Houston, Memphis and Central Florida are also looking for a home, and Conference USA has not left the light on for them. It is possible that a new conference will coalesce from the ashes of the Big East and where will that conference go to fill out?
If the MWC can't improve it's TV revenue, it could end up suffering the same fate as the WAC. They will lose their big market programs beginning with Fresno State or Air Force. Then why wouldn't Nevada, UNLV and Hawaii follow suit. Maybe even New Mexico and San Jose State will go. The conference will be left with just a few micro-market schools like Utah State, Wyoming and Colorado State to scratch the dregs of the college football world for loose change. The perfect conference for Idaho and New Mexico State to feel right at home. That version of the MWC will be no more attractive to Montana than the WAC was 2 years ago. The MW needs a bigger market than Missoula to save it from this fate. If it has to go to the FCS for new members, it needs markets like Portland and Sacramento.
It is likely that Montana will never get another chance to move to the FBS, unless 2 million people move to Western Montana. But who want THAT? There is a certain charm about the emptiness of the Treasure State. (The postal code for Montana is MT (empty)). People move there and visit to get away from the city. Of course, two years ago, who would have believed that the College Football world would have moved to a playoff. The regents at the Montana University System can't completely be blamed for this. Of course, back in 2010, people thought that Montana would get another crack at the FBS if they spurned the WAC. But there is no reason to sit back and regret what has happened. The Grizzlies should go on and win more championships and keep being the way that they are and have been.
As for the MW? The likely targets should the give up on Boise State and San Diego State coming back are in Texas. My money now is on UTEP and UTSA.
Predictions for Utah's College Football games for 10/13
Weber State at Sacramento State
Don't look everyone. Out of Weber State 5 remaining games, how many opponents have winning records? Just this one. OK, Montana is .500 right now and probably will be above .500 when they come to Ogden in November. The point being, the last have of Weber schedule is a lot easier than the first half. The Hornets own a win over Colorado and came from behind last week to beat Southern Utah. On paper, Sacramento State should win this easily. This may not be the first game of Weber State's first win this year.
28-17 Sacramento State
Southern Utah at Montana
The Grizzlies let go of Robin Pflugrad in the off season, and have not been playing like themselves this year. That might be good news for the Thunderbirds. But the defense has given up 31 points per game in Big Sky games this year. That is not counting the Utah State, California and New Mexico Highlands games. The Grizzlies also have a defense that has not been quite good enough, either. Montana's offense does not need their offense to score more points, they need their defense to show up. This one could be a shootout. It is a must-win game for both teams.
49-45 Montana
Utah State at San Jose State
So early in the WAC season, and a game to could decide the conference champion. The Aggie D is pretty good, but the offense struggled last week only getting 243 total yards with 42 on the ground against BYU. But that was against one of the best defenses in the US. Now they take on the pass-happy Spartans, who have not seen nearly the caliber of opposition that the Aggies have, except for their single loss to Stanford. David Fales has 1400 yards passing at and a 159.8 rating so far this season. Yea, he's good enough. It will be fun to see what the battle-tested Aggies can do. But I have a feeling, this will be another relatively low-scoring affair.
24-17 Utah State
Utah at UCLA
Is this the bounce-back game for Utah? It could be. There is some of that optimism floating around the Utah camp right now. It is not unfounded. The Utes, so far, are the only FBS program to score an offensive touchdown against BYU. They are capable of more than what they have shown so far this season, except when playing their rivals. Perhaps they should pretend that Bruin Blue is BYU Royal Blue in Pasadena. Then they might get to play there more often. Utah beat UCLA quite handily in Salt Lake last season. This is not last-season's UCLA. This group is much better coached.
27-10 UCLA
Oregon State at BYU
I was crucified on a BYU chat board for saying that BYU's offense is good enough to win games. I stand by that remark. BYU had a defense that the other team can't score on. They have held 4 opponents this season out of the end zone. The difference between the wins and losses in Provo this season has been the mistakes on the offense. The Cougars lost both games by one score and in both of those game the opponent's defense scored a touchdown. That is what it is going to take for Oregon State to get away from Provo with a win. I did NOT say that BYU had a great offense this year. But with this defense, it is good enough as long as they do not make any big mistakes. No turnovers and few penalties and BYU will win on Saturday. That is a lot to ask, but possible.
10-6 BYU
Don't look everyone. Out of Weber State 5 remaining games, how many opponents have winning records? Just this one. OK, Montana is .500 right now and probably will be above .500 when they come to Ogden in November. The point being, the last have of Weber schedule is a lot easier than the first half. The Hornets own a win over Colorado and came from behind last week to beat Southern Utah. On paper, Sacramento State should win this easily. This may not be the first game of Weber State's first win this year.
28-17 Sacramento State
Southern Utah at Montana
The Grizzlies let go of Robin Pflugrad in the off season, and have not been playing like themselves this year. That might be good news for the Thunderbirds. But the defense has given up 31 points per game in Big Sky games this year. That is not counting the Utah State, California and New Mexico Highlands games. The Grizzlies also have a defense that has not been quite good enough, either. Montana's offense does not need their offense to score more points, they need their defense to show up. This one could be a shootout. It is a must-win game for both teams.
49-45 Montana
Utah State at San Jose State
So early in the WAC season, and a game to could decide the conference champion. The Aggie D is pretty good, but the offense struggled last week only getting 243 total yards with 42 on the ground against BYU. But that was against one of the best defenses in the US. Now they take on the pass-happy Spartans, who have not seen nearly the caliber of opposition that the Aggies have, except for their single loss to Stanford. David Fales has 1400 yards passing at and a 159.8 rating so far this season. Yea, he's good enough. It will be fun to see what the battle-tested Aggies can do. But I have a feeling, this will be another relatively low-scoring affair.
24-17 Utah State
Utah at UCLA
Is this the bounce-back game for Utah? It could be. There is some of that optimism floating around the Utah camp right now. It is not unfounded. The Utes, so far, are the only FBS program to score an offensive touchdown against BYU. They are capable of more than what they have shown so far this season, except when playing their rivals. Perhaps they should pretend that Bruin Blue is BYU Royal Blue in Pasadena. Then they might get to play there more often. Utah beat UCLA quite handily in Salt Lake last season. This is not last-season's UCLA. This group is much better coached.
27-10 UCLA
Oregon State at BYU
I was crucified on a BYU chat board for saying that BYU's offense is good enough to win games. I stand by that remark. BYU had a defense that the other team can't score on. They have held 4 opponents this season out of the end zone. The difference between the wins and losses in Provo this season has been the mistakes on the offense. The Cougars lost both games by one score and in both of those game the opponent's defense scored a touchdown. That is what it is going to take for Oregon State to get away from Provo with a win. I did NOT say that BYU had a great offense this year. But with this defense, it is good enough as long as they do not make any big mistakes. No turnovers and few penalties and BYU will win on Saturday. That is a lot to ask, but possible.
10-6 BYU
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Utah State Post-Season Possibilities
The WAC only has one bowl commitment, but that does not mean that the conference will only have more than one bowl team. There are many possibilities for a variety of reasons.
1. North Carolina is under a post-season ban this year.
2. Ohio State and Penn State are also under a post-season ban.
3. Army and Navy appear not to be bowl eligible this year.
4. Conference-USA has 6 bowl slots, including substituting for Army in the Military Bowl. C-USA may only have 3 bowl eligible teams. At most, they will have 5. Their priorities will be the Liberty Bowl, Armed Forces Bowl and Hawaii Bowl. The New Orleans Bowl, Beef O' Brady's Bowl and Military Bowl may be vacant.
The WAC should have 3 bowl eligible teams and there should be 3 or more open bowls for WAC teams. Here is how I think it will shake out.
Utah State--Idaho Famous Potato Bowl
San Jose State--Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (As a Substitute for Navy)
Louisiana Tech--New Orleans Bowl (For C-USA)
UTSA is not bowl eligible this year. Bummer.
I do not think the WAC standings will matter a whole lot. If these bowls are available, this is where the WAC teams will go.
WAC Power Rankings
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Utah State
3. San Jose State
4. UTSA
5. Texas State
6. Idaho
7. New Mexico State
Jerry Palm at CBS thinks that one bowl game will be canceled because there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams. There is a contingency to allow a 5-7 team to play in a bowl game once all of the eligible 6-6 teams have been placed. Personally, I think they should give an exception to UTSA first.
1. North Carolina is under a post-season ban this year.
2. Ohio State and Penn State are also under a post-season ban.
3. Army and Navy appear not to be bowl eligible this year.
4. Conference-USA has 6 bowl slots, including substituting for Army in the Military Bowl. C-USA may only have 3 bowl eligible teams. At most, they will have 5. Their priorities will be the Liberty Bowl, Armed Forces Bowl and Hawaii Bowl. The New Orleans Bowl, Beef O' Brady's Bowl and Military Bowl may be vacant.
The WAC should have 3 bowl eligible teams and there should be 3 or more open bowls for WAC teams. Here is how I think it will shake out.
Utah State--Idaho Famous Potato Bowl
San Jose State--Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (As a Substitute for Navy)
Louisiana Tech--New Orleans Bowl (For C-USA)
UTSA is not bowl eligible this year. Bummer.
I do not think the WAC standings will matter a whole lot. If these bowls are available, this is where the WAC teams will go.
WAC Power Rankings
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Utah State
3. San Jose State
4. UTSA
5. Texas State
6. Idaho
7. New Mexico State
Jerry Palm at CBS thinks that one bowl game will be canceled because there will not be enough bowl-eligible teams. There is a contingency to allow a 5-7 team to play in a bowl game once all of the eligible 6-6 teams have been placed. Personally, I think they should give an exception to UTSA first.
Utah's post season chances
After starting the conference season with two consecutive losses, the Utes find themselves in a quandry. Will they win enough games to qualify for even the New Mexico Bowl? Chances are not looking good at the moment. Here is Utah's remaining opponents from strongest to weakest and the Sagarin predictor.
Utah's predictor is 73.85. Home field add 2.62 to the score
@ Oregon State 79.31 (Predicts a 8-point OSU win)
Arizona 77.72 (Predicts a 1 point UofA win)
@UCLA 77.15 (Predicts a 6-point UCLA win)
@Washington 73.90 (Predicts 3-point UW win)
California 75.29 (Predicts a 1-point Utah win)
Washington State 63.02 (Predicts a 12-point Utah win)
@ Colorado 53.51 (Predicts a 17-point Utah win)
Therefore, the computer thinks that Utah is going to finish 6-6. The key game to the rest of Utah's season is the home match to California, if the Utes do not otherwise pull off an upset. They are certainly capable of that, even with the current QB situation. Here's why...
BYU's Sagarin predictor is 83.03. The Cougars should have beaten Utah by a touchdown. But we all know that did not happen. Certainly, the Utes are capable of winning every game on this schedule even with John Hays at quarterback.
Now, as for which bowl they will go to. The Utes, if they finish 6-6 will likely be the last PAC-12 team to be bowl eligible.
Here is the way it could work out.
Oregon--Rose vs. Northwestern (I kid not)
ASU--Fiesta vs. West Virginia
USC--Alamo vs. Texas
Stanford--Holiday vs. TCU
OSU--Sun vs. Duke (I am also serious here)
UCLA--Las Vegas vs. Boise State
Washington--Kraft FH vs. San Jose State (Substitute for Navy)
Utah--New Mexico vs. Air Force
I am assuming that Arizona and California are not going to finish the season bowl eligible. It appears that the Wildcats only have two winnable games left on their schedule. Utah would be a good choice for LV for ticket sales between Utah, UCLA and Washington. Too bad the game will likely be against Boise State. Let's hope the Broncos make the BCS. Maybe if BSU is in the LV Bowl, they will chose UCLA for the better match-up leaving Utah to play an old MWC rival in Albuquerque, namely Air Force who appears in that slot right now. Either way, the KFHB will prefer either UCLA or Washington ahead of Utah for ticket sales.
PAC-12 Power Rankings
1. Oregon
2. USC
3. Stanford
4. Arizona State
5. Oregon State
6. UCLA
7. Washington
8. Arizona
9. Utah
10. California
11. Washington State
12. Colorado
BTW--BCS picks
Championship--Alabama vs. Florida...sorry.
Rose--Oregon vs. Northwestern
Fiesta--Arizona State vs. West Virginia
Sugar--Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati
Orange--Florida State vs. Kansas State
Utah's predictor is 73.85. Home field add 2.62 to the score
@ Oregon State 79.31 (Predicts a 8-point OSU win)
Arizona 77.72 (Predicts a 1 point UofA win)
@UCLA 77.15 (Predicts a 6-point UCLA win)
@Washington 73.90 (Predicts 3-point UW win)
California 75.29 (Predicts a 1-point Utah win)
Washington State 63.02 (Predicts a 12-point Utah win)
@ Colorado 53.51 (Predicts a 17-point Utah win)
Therefore, the computer thinks that Utah is going to finish 6-6. The key game to the rest of Utah's season is the home match to California, if the Utes do not otherwise pull off an upset. They are certainly capable of that, even with the current QB situation. Here's why...
BYU's Sagarin predictor is 83.03. The Cougars should have beaten Utah by a touchdown. But we all know that did not happen. Certainly, the Utes are capable of winning every game on this schedule even with John Hays at quarterback.
Now, as for which bowl they will go to. The Utes, if they finish 6-6 will likely be the last PAC-12 team to be bowl eligible.
Here is the way it could work out.
Oregon--Rose vs. Northwestern (I kid not)
ASU--Fiesta vs. West Virginia
USC--Alamo vs. Texas
Stanford--Holiday vs. TCU
OSU--Sun vs. Duke (I am also serious here)
UCLA--Las Vegas vs. Boise State
Washington--Kraft FH vs. San Jose State (Substitute for Navy)
Utah--New Mexico vs. Air Force
I am assuming that Arizona and California are not going to finish the season bowl eligible. It appears that the Wildcats only have two winnable games left on their schedule. Utah would be a good choice for LV for ticket sales between Utah, UCLA and Washington. Too bad the game will likely be against Boise State. Let's hope the Broncos make the BCS. Maybe if BSU is in the LV Bowl, they will chose UCLA for the better match-up leaving Utah to play an old MWC rival in Albuquerque, namely Air Force who appears in that slot right now. Either way, the KFHB will prefer either UCLA or Washington ahead of Utah for ticket sales.
PAC-12 Power Rankings
1. Oregon
2. USC
3. Stanford
4. Arizona State
5. Oregon State
6. UCLA
7. Washington
8. Arizona
9. Utah
10. California
11. Washington State
12. Colorado
BTW--BCS picks
Championship--Alabama vs. Florida...sorry.
Rose--Oregon vs. Northwestern
Fiesta--Arizona State vs. West Virginia
Sugar--Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati
Orange--Florida State vs. Kansas State
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
Big Sky Conference Post-Season Chances as of Oct 9, 2012
One of the reasons why Doug Fullerton said the Big Sky Conference became a 13-team conference was to go from being a 2-3 playoff bid conference to being a 3-4 playoff bid conference. If the playoffs were held today, there would be a good chance that 3 teams would be invited to the playoffs with the 4th a good possibility.
The Contenders
#2/2 Montana State (6-0). The 6-0 Bobcats are cruising through the schedule right now. They host 5-1 #6/6 Eastern Washington in Bozeman this week. If the Eagles win, the result could flip the Bobcats and the Eagles in the rankings. A loss will not dramatically hurt either team's playoff chances as long as they otherwise stay the course. Remaining Home Games: Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Portland State. Remaining Road Games: Sacramento State, Montana
#6/6 Eastern Washington (4-1). The Eagles really took care of the Fighting Sioux last week and are breathing down the necks of the Bobcats to begin the playoffs in the top 4, which means they would host a game after a week off against a team that did not get a week off. A loss against the Bobcats may not drop the Eagles so far that they ruin their chances to host a second-round game. Remaining home games: Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis. Remaining road games: Montana State, Southern Utah, and Portland State
#14/15 Cal Poly (5-0). The Mustangs took care of business in Ogden and are now likely in the "last 4 in" spot. They probably will move up if they win all of their remaining games. They have a big date against Eastern Washington looming, and the season finale at Northern Arizona looms big as well, right now. Otherwise, the schedule looks friendly. This is where they may end up if they win the games that they should. Take care of business against the other 4 opponents, and they should be in the post-season. Remaining road games: Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. Remaining home games: Northern Colorado, Portland State, and Idaho State.
#18/16 Northern Arizona (4-1). The Lumberjacks are opposite of Cal Poly right now. They likely sit in the "first 4 out" position right now. They have a favorable schedule and should things work out; the game against Cal Poly in Flagstaff to end the season will be huge. If they win the other 5 games, their chances of making the playoffs look good because teams ahead of them right now will lose. Remaining home games: UC Davis, Southern Utah, Cal Poly. Remaining Road Games: North Dakota, Northern Colorado and Idaho State.
Technically Still in Contention
Sacramento State (4-2). With some help the Hornets could still win the conference, and they might barely win enough games to qualify for an at-large bid. Will 7 wins be enough? As far as playoff contention is concerned, the loss to New Mexico State now hurts a lot more than the win at Colorado helps. Even though they are both FBS schools, neither is very strong. If the Buffaloes were in the Big Sky Conference, they would likely be 5th to 7th in the standings. If NMSU was in the Big Sky, they would be close to the bottom. Of course, if you look at the schedule, the Hornets could really help their playoff chances if they win enough games to qualify. They have to beat either Montana State, Eastern Washington or Cal-Poly to get to 7 wins. Remaining home games: Weber State, Cal Poly, Montana State. Remaining road games: Eastern Washington, UC Davis.
Chances are fading, but all is not lost.
Montana and North Dakota are both 3-3 and 1-2 in conference. They are not really out of the conference race and have a little room for error in to qualify for an at-large bid with 7 wins. They really need to step things up and win some games, because the season is fading fast. They both can't win out, because they play each-other in 2 Saturdays.
Chances are fading even faster, but hope remains.
Portland State, Southern Utah and UC Davis are all at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in conference. They are not out of the conference race, but if they lose one more game, they will not qualify for an at-large bid and they will likely be out of the conference race for good.
Completely out of contention
Next season has already began for Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. North Dakota
7. Sacramento State
8. UC Davis
9. Southern Utah
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
The Contenders
#2/2 Montana State (6-0). The 6-0 Bobcats are cruising through the schedule right now. They host 5-1 #6/6 Eastern Washington in Bozeman this week. If the Eagles win, the result could flip the Bobcats and the Eagles in the rankings. A loss will not dramatically hurt either team's playoff chances as long as they otherwise stay the course. Remaining Home Games: Eastern Washington, North Dakota, Portland State. Remaining Road Games: Sacramento State, Montana
#6/6 Eastern Washington (4-1). The Eagles really took care of the Fighting Sioux last week and are breathing down the necks of the Bobcats to begin the playoffs in the top 4, which means they would host a game after a week off against a team that did not get a week off. A loss against the Bobcats may not drop the Eagles so far that they ruin their chances to host a second-round game. Remaining home games: Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis. Remaining road games: Montana State, Southern Utah, and Portland State
#14/15 Cal Poly (5-0). The Mustangs took care of business in Ogden and are now likely in the "last 4 in" spot. They probably will move up if they win all of their remaining games. They have a big date against Eastern Washington looming, and the season finale at Northern Arizona looms big as well, right now. Otherwise, the schedule looks friendly. This is where they may end up if they win the games that they should. Take care of business against the other 4 opponents, and they should be in the post-season. Remaining road games: Sacramento State, Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona. Remaining home games: Northern Colorado, Portland State, and Idaho State.
#18/16 Northern Arizona (4-1). The Lumberjacks are opposite of Cal Poly right now. They likely sit in the "first 4 out" position right now. They have a favorable schedule and should things work out; the game against Cal Poly in Flagstaff to end the season will be huge. If they win the other 5 games, their chances of making the playoffs look good because teams ahead of them right now will lose. Remaining home games: UC Davis, Southern Utah, Cal Poly. Remaining Road Games: North Dakota, Northern Colorado and Idaho State.
Technically Still in Contention
Sacramento State (4-2). With some help the Hornets could still win the conference, and they might barely win enough games to qualify for an at-large bid. Will 7 wins be enough? As far as playoff contention is concerned, the loss to New Mexico State now hurts a lot more than the win at Colorado helps. Even though they are both FBS schools, neither is very strong. If the Buffaloes were in the Big Sky Conference, they would likely be 5th to 7th in the standings. If NMSU was in the Big Sky, they would be close to the bottom. Of course, if you look at the schedule, the Hornets could really help their playoff chances if they win enough games to qualify. They have to beat either Montana State, Eastern Washington or Cal-Poly to get to 7 wins. Remaining home games: Weber State, Cal Poly, Montana State. Remaining road games: Eastern Washington, UC Davis.
Chances are fading, but all is not lost.
Montana and North Dakota are both 3-3 and 1-2 in conference. They are not really out of the conference race and have a little room for error in to qualify for an at-large bid with 7 wins. They really need to step things up and win some games, because the season is fading fast. They both can't win out, because they play each-other in 2 Saturdays.
Chances are fading even faster, but hope remains.
Portland State, Southern Utah and UC Davis are all at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in conference. They are not out of the conference race, but if they lose one more game, they will not qualify for an at-large bid and they will likely be out of the conference race for good.
Completely out of contention
Next season has already began for Weber State, Idaho State and Northern Colorado
Big Sky Conference Power Rankings
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. Montana
6. North Dakota
7. Sacramento State
8. UC Davis
9. Southern Utah
10. Portland State
11. Weber State
12. Northern Colorado
13. Idaho State
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Bronco Mendenhall's job just got easier.
I'm sure that most of my readers know about the lowering of the age in which young men and young women can serve missions. No one is more excited about this change than Bronco Mendenhall, Dave Rose and every other college coach that recruits heavily among the LDS population. Coaches at Utah, Utah State, Weber State, Southern Utah, Dixie State, Hawaii, Northern Arizona and Idaho State are very pleased with this announcement. The men's coaches are happy, especially the fall sports coaches. The women's coaches now get to pull their hair out.
But the men get to say to their recruits, "Go on your mission right when you graduate from high school." Most will be gone by the end of the year after they graduate. Most likely these men will all return and enroll in school by January. They will be able to participate in spring practice and in most cases will redshirt that first season back. It's is a much more manageable situation.
Now the mission burden is on the coaches of the women's teams.
But the men get to say to their recruits, "Go on your mission right when you graduate from high school." Most will be gone by the end of the year after they graduate. Most likely these men will all return and enroll in school by January. They will be able to participate in spring practice and in most cases will redshirt that first season back. It's is a much more manageable situation.
Now the mission burden is on the coaches of the women's teams.
And Then it Got Ugly...Report on the games for October 4 & 5.
I was fortunate that I was able to see 4 of the 5 Utah teams play this weekend, at least on TV. We will try to make it to Ceder City this season to see SUU play...probably to the Weber State game.
USC 38 Utah 28
For the first three quarters of the game, things went well for the Utes. They had jumped out to a 14-0 lead. Halfway through the second quarter, they held a 21-10 lead. USC got a couple of scores before halftime to take a 24-21 lead to the locker room. The third quarter was scoreless. Then it got ugly. There was a Barkley bomb and an int 6 and the game was over. The Utes scored one more time with Travis Wilson at the helm The Utes once again begin conference play with a 2-0 loss.
Utah MVP: DT Star Lotulelei
Cal Poly 45 Weber 23
The winless Wildcats hung tough with the ranked Mustangs until midway through the third quarter. The game was back-and-fourth before then. The cat were up 6-0, then behind 7-6. The teams traded touchdowns until the score was 21-20 for the Mustangs. But WSU was looking a lot like Ron McBride's team from last season. Then it got ugly. Trying to avoid a sack, Mike Hoke through the ball directly to Barrett Wangara of the Mustangs. He rambled in for the score, and the rout was on. Weber was back to dropping passes, missing blocks, slipping off tackles and getting stupid penalties...in other words, they played like an 0-6 team. In my book, Jody Sears had only one more shot to become the full-time head coach at Weber State, and that is next week at Sacramento State. If he can't deliver a victory, there are not enough winnable games for him to prove himself. He's not a bad guy or a bad coach, he was thrown into a very difficult circumstance, but has not been able to make anything of it. I doubt that I could do any better.
Weber State MVP: RB CJ Tuckett
BYU 6 Utah State 3
The Aggies kicked off to the Cougars to begin the game and then it got ugly. BYU shut down the Aggie run game and USU shut down the Cougars pass game. The only time it worked for either offense was at the end of the first half when BYU successfully executed a 2-minute drill to take a 6-3 lead into halftime (They missed the conversion). There was no scoring in the second half. BYU took over after a fumble inside the 10 yard line and could not score. Utah State missed a field goal that would have tied that game in the 4th quarter. I like the drama of defensive battles, much like pitching duels in baseball.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
BYU MVP: DT Ziggy Ansah
Sacramento State 27 Southern Utah 22
Brad Sorensen led SUU to a 22-14 lead mid-way through the 3rd quarter. Then it got ugly. SUU become the victim of the Hornet Comeback. The T-Birds were only able to gain 42 yards the rest of the game, two of the last three drives ended in a 3-and-out, and Soresen's last pass was intercepted.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen,
USC 38 Utah 28
For the first three quarters of the game, things went well for the Utes. They had jumped out to a 14-0 lead. Halfway through the second quarter, they held a 21-10 lead. USC got a couple of scores before halftime to take a 24-21 lead to the locker room. The third quarter was scoreless. Then it got ugly. There was a Barkley bomb and an int 6 and the game was over. The Utes scored one more time with Travis Wilson at the helm The Utes once again begin conference play with a 2-0 loss.
Utah MVP: DT Star Lotulelei
Cal Poly 45 Weber 23
The winless Wildcats hung tough with the ranked Mustangs until midway through the third quarter. The game was back-and-fourth before then. The cat were up 6-0, then behind 7-6. The teams traded touchdowns until the score was 21-20 for the Mustangs. But WSU was looking a lot like Ron McBride's team from last season. Then it got ugly. Trying to avoid a sack, Mike Hoke through the ball directly to Barrett Wangara of the Mustangs. He rambled in for the score, and the rout was on. Weber was back to dropping passes, missing blocks, slipping off tackles and getting stupid penalties...in other words, they played like an 0-6 team. In my book, Jody Sears had only one more shot to become the full-time head coach at Weber State, and that is next week at Sacramento State. If he can't deliver a victory, there are not enough winnable games for him to prove himself. He's not a bad guy or a bad coach, he was thrown into a very difficult circumstance, but has not been able to make anything of it. I doubt that I could do any better.
Weber State MVP: RB CJ Tuckett
BYU 6 Utah State 3
The Aggies kicked off to the Cougars to begin the game and then it got ugly. BYU shut down the Aggie run game and USU shut down the Cougars pass game. The only time it worked for either offense was at the end of the first half when BYU successfully executed a 2-minute drill to take a 6-3 lead into halftime (They missed the conversion). There was no scoring in the second half. BYU took over after a fumble inside the 10 yard line and could not score. Utah State missed a field goal that would have tied that game in the 4th quarter. I like the drama of defensive battles, much like pitching duels in baseball.
USU MVP: QB Chuckie Keeton
BYU MVP: DT Ziggy Ansah
Sacramento State 27 Southern Utah 22
Brad Sorensen led SUU to a 22-14 lead mid-way through the 3rd quarter. Then it got ugly. SUU become the victim of the Hornet Comeback. The T-Birds were only able to gain 42 yards the rest of the game, two of the last three drives ended in a 3-and-out, and Soresen's last pass was intercepted.
SUU MVP: QB Brad Sorensen,
Friday, October 5, 2012
The WAC Lives!!!
KUTV, the CBS affiliate in Salt Lake is reporting the following...It will be announced on Tuesday that Utah Valley and CS Bakersfield have accepted an invitation to join the WAC. The main reason...to get an NCAA auto bid in all sports. Official announcement on Tuesday.
Details to follow when they are known.
The non-football WAC in 2013 is now:
Denver
Idaho
NM State
Seattle
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
1 more school needs to be added for the conference to maintain it's status and keep it's automatic bids into the NCAA tournaments. I doubt that UVU and CSUB would join without that other member, so who is it? That is one mystery that needs to be solved.
My speculation is that the other member member will be absorbed from the GWC. Meaning either UT Pan American, Houston Baptist or Chicago State.
It has also been reported that the WAC has a 2-year waiver from the NCAA to the 7-team rule. The august conference would have until the 2015/16 academic year to reconstitute itself. The Great West also includes New Jersey Tech. If nothing else, the WAC is more travel friendly for the Wolverines than the GWC.
Read the report at NBC.
Details to follow when they are known.
The non-football WAC in 2013 is now:
Denver
Idaho
NM State
Seattle
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
1 more school needs to be added for the conference to maintain it's status and keep it's automatic bids into the NCAA tournaments. I doubt that UVU and CSUB would join without that other member, so who is it? That is one mystery that needs to be solved.
My speculation is that the other member member will be absorbed from the GWC. Meaning either UT Pan American, Houston Baptist or Chicago State.
It has also been reported that the WAC has a 2-year waiver from the NCAA to the 7-team rule. The august conference would have until the 2015/16 academic year to reconstitute itself. The Great West also includes New Jersey Tech. If nothing else, the WAC is more travel friendly for the Wolverines than the GWC.
Read the report at NBC.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Predictions for 10/4 to 10/6
There is not a lot of Saturday action this week in Utah. We have a Thursday night game, two Friday night games involving 3 schools and a Saturday game down south. 3 of those 4 contest don't really offer much intrigue, there is a heavy favorite in them. The game in Provo is more of a mystery.
Thursday, USC at Utah
The Utes did not look so good against Arizona State in their conference opener. They will probably have trouble against teams that don't get over-psyched in their preparation like BYU and Utah State did. The Trojans are not easily intimidated. I can see the defensive line getting to USC QB Matt Barkley, but I don't see him making too many mistakes and also see him hitting a few deep balls. If Utah can't take away the deep ball and the West Coast passing game, and if John White can't chew up yards and clock on the ground this will not be a close game. If, however, the opposite happens, Salt Lake City could become Upset City.
USC 38 Utah 17
Friday
Utah State at BYU
The only thing for certain about this game is that it will be a defensive battle, and could be just as ugly as the BYU/Boise State game. When you have a good defense, you have a chance to win every game and the opposing offenses look bad. Both teams have good defenses, the best in the country. That is why the 3 combined losses between the two are by a total of 6 points. Other than the in-state rivalry part, neither team has a lot riding on this game. With 2 losses, BYU is likely headed for the Poinsettia Bowl. BYU has enough winnable games on their schedule to be bowl eligible. And USU is striving for a WAC championship. A few neighbors will get worked up over this one, however. The winner will be the team that makes the fewest mental errors. Don't be surprised if this one goes into overtime with a very low score. Don't be surprised if neither team reaches the end-zone.
BYU 9 USU 6
Cal Poly at Weber State
WSU has the ability to play up to the good teams and lay down in winnable games this year. They are one of two teams that scored an offensive touchdown against BYU. They kept Fresno State's starters in the entire game, and came 40 yards away from upsetting Eastern Washington. But they were blown out in their other 2 games. Weber State figures to play their best football this Friday in Ogden, where another nationally ranked team is visiting. Again, their best may not be good enough. Cal Poly and Andre Broadus run the Pistol as good as any team in college football.
Poly 42 Weber 29
Saturday
Sacramento State at Southern Utah
The Hornets have a win against Colorado of the PAC-12. That Colorado of the PAC-12, who this year is just not playing very well, for the most part. Sacramento State is really not that good and Colorado is that bad. The Thunderbirds are better than most people think they are. They should be hungry for a win after last week's close loss to #2 Montana State.
SUU 29 Sac State 16
Thursday, USC at Utah
The Utes did not look so good against Arizona State in their conference opener. They will probably have trouble against teams that don't get over-psyched in their preparation like BYU and Utah State did. The Trojans are not easily intimidated. I can see the defensive line getting to USC QB Matt Barkley, but I don't see him making too many mistakes and also see him hitting a few deep balls. If Utah can't take away the deep ball and the West Coast passing game, and if John White can't chew up yards and clock on the ground this will not be a close game. If, however, the opposite happens, Salt Lake City could become Upset City.
USC 38 Utah 17
Friday
Utah State at BYU
The only thing for certain about this game is that it will be a defensive battle, and could be just as ugly as the BYU/Boise State game. When you have a good defense, you have a chance to win every game and the opposing offenses look bad. Both teams have good defenses, the best in the country. That is why the 3 combined losses between the two are by a total of 6 points. Other than the in-state rivalry part, neither team has a lot riding on this game. With 2 losses, BYU is likely headed for the Poinsettia Bowl. BYU has enough winnable games on their schedule to be bowl eligible. And USU is striving for a WAC championship. A few neighbors will get worked up over this one, however. The winner will be the team that makes the fewest mental errors. Don't be surprised if this one goes into overtime with a very low score. Don't be surprised if neither team reaches the end-zone.
BYU 9 USU 6
Cal Poly at Weber State
WSU has the ability to play up to the good teams and lay down in winnable games this year. They are one of two teams that scored an offensive touchdown against BYU. They kept Fresno State's starters in the entire game, and came 40 yards away from upsetting Eastern Washington. But they were blown out in their other 2 games. Weber State figures to play their best football this Friday in Ogden, where another nationally ranked team is visiting. Again, their best may not be good enough. Cal Poly and Andre Broadus run the Pistol as good as any team in college football.
Poly 42 Weber 29
Saturday
Sacramento State at Southern Utah
The Hornets have a win against Colorado of the PAC-12. That Colorado of the PAC-12, who this year is just not playing very well, for the most part. Sacramento State is really not that good and Colorado is that bad. The Thunderbirds are better than most people think they are. They should be hungry for a win after last week's close loss to #2 Montana State.
SUU 29 Sac State 16
WAC Power Rankings...Where they would be in 2013
Just for fun, I thought it would be interesting to see how this year's WAC schools will fit into next year's conference alignment. LTU, USU and SJSU fans will be happy. NSMU and Idaho should be concerned about how weak their teams really are. IMHO, there is not a huge difference between a weaker FBS team and a mid-level FCS team. The better FCS teams will have no trouble competing in the weaker FBS conferences. I would not put Montana State, for example, in the PAC-12. But if the WAC had stayed together, Montana State would be more than just fine.
Current WAC Power Rankings
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Utah State
3. San Jose State
4. UTSA
5. New Mexico State
6. Texas State
7. Idaho
Where they would be in their respective conferences next season
Mountain West (Minus Boise State and SDSU plus USU and SJSU)
1. Nevada
2. Utah State
3. Fresno State
4. San Jose State
5. Air Force
6. Wyoming
7. New Mexico
8. Hawaii
9. Colorado State
10. UNLV
Conference USA (Minus Houston, SMU, Central Florida, and Memphis. Add Louisiana Tech, UTSA, FIU, North Texas (Old Dominion and Charlotte in 2014)).
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Tulsa
3. East Carolina
4. UTSA
5. Marshall
6. Southern Mississippi
7. UTEP
8. Rice
(Old Dominion fits in here)
9. UAB
10. Tulane
11. North Texas
12. FIU
(Charlotte does not have a football team yet)
Sunbelt (Minus FIU and North Texas. Add Texas State and Georgia State in 2014))
1. Louisiana Monroe
2. Louisiana Lafeyette
3. Western Kentucky
4. Troy
5. Middle Tennessee
6. Arkansas State
7. Florida Atlantic
8. Texas State
9. South Alabama
(Georgia State joins in 2014)
FBS Independents (Add Idaho and New Mexico State. Navy joins the Big East in 2014)
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. New Mexico State
5. Army
6. Idaho
If NMSU joins the Southland Conference
1. Sam Houston State
2. Central Arkansas
3. McNeese State
4. Northwestern State
5. Stephen F. Austin
6. New Mexico State
7. SE Louisiana
8. Nichols State
9. Lamar
If Idaho joins the Big Sky Conference
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. North Dakota
6. Sacramento State
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Portland State
11. Idaho
12. Weber State
13. Northern Colorado
14. Idaho State
Current WAC Power Rankings
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Utah State
3. San Jose State
4. UTSA
5. New Mexico State
6. Texas State
7. Idaho
Where they would be in their respective conferences next season
Mountain West (Minus Boise State and SDSU plus USU and SJSU)
1. Nevada
2. Utah State
3. Fresno State
4. San Jose State
5. Air Force
6. Wyoming
7. New Mexico
8. Hawaii
9. Colorado State
10. UNLV
Conference USA (Minus Houston, SMU, Central Florida, and Memphis. Add Louisiana Tech, UTSA, FIU, North Texas (Old Dominion and Charlotte in 2014)).
1. Louisiana Tech
2. Tulsa
3. East Carolina
4. UTSA
5. Marshall
6. Southern Mississippi
7. UTEP
8. Rice
(Old Dominion fits in here)
9. UAB
10. Tulane
11. North Texas
12. FIU
(Charlotte does not have a football team yet)
Sunbelt (Minus FIU and North Texas. Add Texas State and Georgia State in 2014))
1. Louisiana Monroe
2. Louisiana Lafeyette
3. Western Kentucky
4. Troy
5. Middle Tennessee
6. Arkansas State
7. Florida Atlantic
8. Texas State
9. South Alabama
(Georgia State joins in 2014)
FBS Independents (Add Idaho and New Mexico State. Navy joins the Big East in 2014)
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. New Mexico State
5. Army
6. Idaho
If NMSU joins the Southland Conference
1. Sam Houston State
2. Central Arkansas
3. McNeese State
4. Northwestern State
5. Stephen F. Austin
6. New Mexico State
7. SE Louisiana
8. Nichols State
9. Lamar
If Idaho joins the Big Sky Conference
1. Montana State
2. Eastern Washington
3. Cal Poly
4. Northern Arizona
5. North Dakota
6. Sacramento State
7. Southern Utah
8. Montana
9. UC Davis
10. Portland State
11. Idaho
12. Weber State
13. Northern Colorado
14. Idaho State
Monday, October 1, 2012
Riley Nelson Out for Good???????????
I am seeing a report "from a credible inside source" that Riley Nelson will be out for good at BYU. Of course, that site has been down most of the afternoon.
By sorting through the Twitterspere from real trusted sources, here is what I have been able to find out.
1. Riley Nelson is listed as doubtful for Friday's game vs. Utah State. He is expected to return for the Oregon State game on October 13.
2. Freshman Taysom Hill took the majority of snaps in practice. He will likely be the starter for the Utah State game.
3. JD Drew of the SL Tribune spoke to his source at BYU and has found no change in Nelson's status.
Other interesting tidbit.
The BYU bookstore took a mini-helmet, colored black, off of their website today. Rumors that a black uniform have been circulating since spring practice.
By sorting through the Twitterspere from real trusted sources, here is what I have been able to find out.
1. Riley Nelson is listed as doubtful for Friday's game vs. Utah State. He is expected to return for the Oregon State game on October 13.
2. Freshman Taysom Hill took the majority of snaps in practice. He will likely be the starter for the Utah State game.
3. JD Drew of the SL Tribune spoke to his source at BYU and has found no change in Nelson's status.
Other interesting tidbit.
The BYU bookstore took a mini-helmet, colored black, off of their website today. Rumors that a black uniform have been circulating since spring practice.
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