Again, I begin with a disclaimer. This theory is mine and mine alone...the source is my own brain.
To begin with, I have read reports that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State want to stay in the same conference. Which means that if Texas A&M leaves for the SEC, Oklahoma will not go with them, unless the SEC tries to go to 16 members. If that happens, then college sports as we know it is over and the era of the Super Conference will begin. But if they stick to 14, and Kansas or Missouri goes with TAMU to the SEC and Texas becomes independent, the Oklahoma schools will push for a new BCS-level conference if they can not wrangle and invite to the PAC-12 or save the Big 12.
Here is my theory for an Oklahoma-centric 12-team conference that would be BCS-worthy...meaning that there would only be room for 2 or 3 football weaklings. The football weaklings would have to be strong in Basketball and be in a large or rapidly growing metro and have a bowl game to make them worthy of inclusion.
South Division
Baylor
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Iowa State
West Division
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Fresno State
UNLV
Texas Tech
The East division is the remainder of the Big 12, except Texas Tech ends up in the west division. Here is the justification for the other 5 members.
Air Force. The Colorado Springs market, although not Denver, represents a vibrant and growing community. The program has a level of credibility that you do not have with any other program.
BYU has been rumored to be on the verge of the Big 12 ever since Colorado and Nebraska left. They have their own TV network and deal with ESPN and they don't play games on Sunday. Since the BYU network also has religious and education programs, it is not a threatening to the conference as the all-sports Longhorn network is.
Boise State has been the underdog story of the last decade. Academically, they are still a little weak, but they do bring a growing city into the fold.
Fresno State is on the list because of their market size. But they are a little outside the footprint. The best bet for the Big 12 in this slot is TCU. But Fresno is a good alternative.
UNLV is here for two reasons. They have a strong basketball program, which will ensure a large number of NCAA bids for the conference. They also bring a bowl game to the fold.
In this scenario, you have 7-8 bowl teams and at least 5 NCAA bids every season.
Other alternatives are Houston, Rice, SMU and UTEP.
How will this effect the WAC? The Mountain West, losing 4 full-time programs can add 6 WAC members. The WAC could then become either a FCS league, as let's face it, the Big Sky is a little hyper-expanded at this time, or a basketball-only league. Or perhaps the MWC can fold and get everyone out of the mtn business forever. Or, another scenario is that the Big West can bring back football.
The New MWC or WAC after this...
East
Colorado State
Wyoming
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTSA
Texas State
Louisiana Tech
West
Nevada
Idaho
Utah State
San Jose State
San Diego State
Hawaii (Football Only)
New Basketball-only league
Denver
UTA
Seattle
Utah Valley
CS Bakersfield
Texas Pan American
Houston Baptist
Texas A&M Corpus Christi
4 comments:
I honestly cannot see the Big12/Oklahoma schools wanting schools such as UNLV, Air Force, or Fresno State. I see them taking Rice, SMU, and even Colorado State first. Plus they'd want to keep the conference geography somewhat close.
The point is trying to have a conference that will still make BCS AQ Status. That will mitigate any travel costs. That is why Fresno is a better choice than Houston, Rice or SMU...but that is also debatable. But TCU is even a better choice. Perhaps the Okie's can talk TCU out of the Big East. UNLV is there because they have basketball and a bowl.
Ben I love your blog and I love WAC/Mountain West football but this is one I'm going to have to disagree with. Being from Big Ten country (Michigan) I can tell you there is no doubt is my mind that Missouri is going to join the Big Ten. Like I've stated in a previous post the Big Ten wants to expand their market place for the network. Although Texas A&M would prefer to join the SEC with the AAU accreditation what would stop them from joining the Big Ten. The travel concerns could be quashed with 20+ million in guaranteed money. If you add Kansas and Pitt to that equation for the Big 16. Notre Dame will reject them again and Syracuse has dropped the AAU accreditation before they joined the conference unlike Nebraska.
I firmly believe the Big 12 will cease to exist in the next few years especially if the BCS exists. I think the Big East will be major players for the Oklahoma schools. I could also see the Mt. West put a full court press to recuit Oklahoma, Ok St, Texas Tech, Baylor, K. St and possibly Utah St. giving them a Mt West 16 conference & full AQ statues
The Pac 12 could also bring on Oklahoma, Ok St, Texas Tech, Baylor for a Pac 16.
The WAC need to contiune to add schools in major TV markets for survival. Cal Poly, Portland St, UC Davis would all be great additions. Also 1 school to think about is Simon Fraser (Vancouver, BC) which competes in the GNAC conference in football. Although its division 2, the school has several alum with major $$$(NHL Canucks owner, other major political alumni) and large market with huge student enrollment (32,000)
So what do you say.....
Not certain that the PAC-12 would become 16 unless it mean a lot more money. Not certain if the right to renegotiate if they add more members is in their contract.
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