Here we go again, more conference re-alignment is coming. Texas A&M is leaving the Big 12 for the SEC and the other dominoes will fall. In WAC-land, this could be the end, or this could be a new beginning.
It may be too early to speculate how the dominoes will fall. But there are basically two questions that need to be answered before we know for certain how this latest conference movement will effect the WAC and the other smaller conferences. The first question is: Who, if anyone will join Texas A&M in the SEC? The second question is, What will Texas and Oklahoma do in response?
There are reports that the SEC may not add anyone else, and may try life as a 13-team conference. Florida State and Missouri are the two linked to TAMU's defection. I do not see Missouri going to the SEC with the Aggies, however. If the SEC goes to 14 schools, I foresee an ACC team going in with them. The reason is that the SEC will chose another team that will allow them to keep their current division alignment, which points to them raiding the ACC. The the SEC goes to 16, then Missouri is in the mix. And if that happens, all Hell will break loose in college football and the era of the "Super Conference" will begin.
The most likely scenario...
If the SEC goes to 14 schools, and raids the ACC, the I expect that the ACC will follow suit and also expand to 14. Which means that they will add 3 schools. I expect that Rutgers, being close to New York City, is at the top of their list. My hunch is that Pittsburgh and West Virginia, are the other schools on their short list. My suspicion is that the ACC will still not look past the Big East for replacements, although Syracuse, Cincinnati, Kansas and Kansas State may also be on the radar.
The next question is, what does Texas and Oklahoma do in response. If the SEC does expand to 16, The ACC, Big 10 and Pac 12 will follow. The Big 12 would be absorbed into other conferences. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State would be in the PAC 12. Missouri could end up in the Big 10 instead of the SEC. Kansas could then join the SEC with TAMU. Kansas State could end up in the Mountain West. Baylor could end up in Conference USA. And good news for the WAC? Iowa State. Iowa State could lure Fargo-based North Dakota State, their 200,000 person metro and their 25,000 seat Fargodome into the FBS. Iowa State could lure Montana and Montana state to the WAC. That would save the conference.
Texas and Oklahoma could keep the Big 12 together. The Big 12 could stand pat at 9. They could invite independent BYU into the conference and remain at 10. They could also add Houston and TCU and return to 12. Air Force, SMU, Rice, Memphis and Louisville are also on the Big 12 short list. That final scenario would be the end of the WAC. The reason...The Big East is likely to raid Conference USA for replacements.
Conference USA was untouched by the last round of conference realignment. That will not be the case this time. The Big East is likely to lose at least one school this time. It will be easy for them to add Central Florida to replace Rutgers or whoever else goes. But if they lose Rutgers, TCU and possibly Pittsburgh, West Virginia or even Syracuse, the Conference USA will be hurting.
The WAC will likely not be impacted if Conference USA is looking for only one replacement. Middle Tennessee is likely at the top of their list. North Texas, and other Sun Belt schools might be higher on their list than anyone in the WAC. Perhaps even Appalachian State or Georgia Southern may move up to the FBS if Conference USA came calling and may get a call from C-USA before anyone from the WAC. But if C-USA is looking for 4 schools, then Louisiana Tech, UTSA, Texas State or even New Mexico State may take a better geographical fit and a better TV deal and dump the WAC.
The WAC is down to 7 football schools and is having trouble finding more. A loss of two more football schools and the WAC doomed to be, at best, a basketball-only conference. The remaining schools would have to hope that the Mountain West Conference and C-USA ready to join super conference era as well.
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