This is pure speculation on my part...
Now that the Texas A&M rumors are settled down, I wish to state that I do not believe that the college football world is ready for 16-team conferences. But they are set up, with 9 conference games being the new norm, for 14-team conferences. A 16-team conference with 9 conference games is too disruptive to rivalries. Until a conference figures out a way to rotate a schedule for a 16 team conference that allows traditional rivalries to exists across division boundaries, the era of the super conference is out of reach.
With 9 conference games and a 7-team division, a team can schedule one game against each team in their division. 1 games against a rival from another division. And play the remaining 6 teams, two at a time, over a three year period.
Here is how I perceive it will shake down. The SEC will move first. They will add Texas A&M and Florida State. They will have Texas A&M in the West Division and Florida State in the East Division.
The Big 12 will become the Big 14. They will add TCU and Houston in the South Division. They will push hard for Notre Dame, but will take Boise State instead. They will add BYU, Boise State and Air Force in the North Division.
Big 14 North
Air Force
Boise State
Brigham Young
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Big 14 South
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The ACC, down 1 with the loss of Florida State will add 3 to move to 16. My speculation is that the ACC will add Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Rutgers. (Some say UConn and some say Syracuse instead of Rutgers. I am going for the team closest to New York). I do not know how the divisions will work out, as I can't figure out the logic of the current divisional alignment. I am certain I am not alone in this.
Big East.
The Big East has lost 4, in my scenario. I suspect that Villanova will accept their invitation. I do not believe the Big East will make a move to become a super conference at this time. They will simply try to maintain their automatic qualifying status without TCU, Pittsburgh, West Virgina and Rutgers (or UConn or Syracuse). They will take baby steps. I suspect, in addition to Villanova, they will add Army, Navy and Central Florida to get back to 9. They will still have UConn, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Louisville and South Florida. They may also make a move to spin off the non-football members into a new conference. They could also add Temple as a lure to ensure Villanova will move up. They will not go to 12 because they do not have the clout to get away with making too many waves. But they will still take a hard look at East Carolina, Southern Mississippi, SMU and Tulsa.
Conference USA
They were left alone in 2010, but they could be devastated by the new round of realignment. If they are lucky, they will only lose UCF. But they may also lose East Carolina, SMU, Southern Mississippi or Tulsa. Tulane could drop football as well. My hunch is the top replacement candidate will be Middle Tennessee. But there are no shortage of potential replacements should C-USA lose 3 or more members. Possible replacements include: Louisiana Tech, UTSA or New Mexico State from the WAC. North Texas, South Alabama, Arkansas State or any of a number of Sun Belt Conference schools. C-USA may even pick up Appalachian State or Georgia Southern from the FCS.
Mountain West
If the MWC loses both Air Force and Boise State, their quest to become a BCS AQ conference may take a big blow, but if Rocky Long can continue to build San Diego State, and if Fresno State can get a better coach than Pat Hill, it will not be permanently lost. They also still have Nevada and Hawaii. I am certain that Utah State will get an invite, but I do not think that they will stop there. Since there are no other really good FBS football schools out west, the MWC may do something that something is unconventional. They could do something that the WAC was not able to do. Lure Montana and Montana State out of the Big Sky to expand to 12. The computers rankings say that Montana is a better football school than San Jose State, Idaho and New Mexico State. So I say, why not.
Big 10 and Pac 12
I do not see them making moves at this time. But eventually, the Big 14 will be sacrificed when the super conference era officially begins.
WAC
As I stated in an earlier blog, when the WAC drops to 5 football schools and can not find replacements, it will suspend operations as a football conference. Unfortunately, I do not see the WAC able to find replacements for Utah State and UTSA/Louisiana Tech. I do see New Mexico State and Texas State and either UTSA/Louisiana Tech in the Sun Belt Conference. But what about Idaho and San Jose State? I see Idaho returning to the Big Sky Conference. I see San Jose State as either an FCS independent initially and then perhaps seeing San Jose State lead a resurrected Big West Football Conference. But that new conference would still be at the FCS level. I can see San Jose State lobbying for a return to football at Pacific, Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara, CS Northridge and CS Fullerton. I don't know if they will be successful at all 5 schools, but somewhere in California, football will return. This will not happen right away and will take a few years to develop. They could be joined by Cal Poly, UC Davis and Sacramento State. Otherwise, San Jose State has to hope the MWC will expand to 12 and pick them.
A resurrected Big West Conference at the FCS level is needed to counter the Big Sky Conference. Not that the BSC is evil, like The Borg from Star Trek, but because the BSC needs FCS non-conference opponents. Whether or not the ego of Doug Fullerton will admit that at this time is another question that I will not attempt to answer.
The WAC will survive as a non football conference. They could merge with the Great West Conference but let Chicago State and New Jersey Tech find a better regional fit. That means adding Utah Valley, Houston Baptist and Texas Pan-American. They can also add independent CS Bakersfield and Texas A&M Corpus Christi, the lone remaining non-football member out of the Southland Conference. If this happens, the WAC maintains their NCAA bid.
Sun Belt
They will be fine, as there will be left-overs for them to pick up.
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