Monday, August 15, 2011

The SEC did not make a move, yet. Do other conferences still react?

The SEC did not make a move to invite Texas A&M at this time. The question for other conferences is, do we make a preemptive expansion move ourselves? It seems that nobody outside of the MAC has been willing to expand beyond 12 at this time. 12 is a good number because of the length of the college football season, 12 games. At 12, any team will play 8 or 9 conference games, 5 divisional games and 3 or 4 non-divisional conference games. This allows for 3 or 4 non conference games. The NCAA does not want to expand the college football games and allow for a 13th game unless visiting Alaska, Hawaii or Puerto Rico. Since there is not a university in Alaska or Puerto Rico that sponsors football, and only one college football university in Hawaii, not many take advantage of this option. Many schools figure a 13th game increases the potential for injury, reduces the opportunity for recruiting during a week off and takes athletes away from class to often.

If the SEC is unwilling to expand beyond 12, perhaps another conference will. Having 14 conference members, breaking into divisions of 7 each is not a difficult thing to schedule. It means 6 intra-divisional games, and 3 non-divisional games and 3 non-conference games. Possibly 1 of the non-divisional conference games will be an opponent from the other division a team plays every season.

Based upon my research, here are the expansion possibilities for every FBS conference. Keep in mind, this is only my speculation.

ACC--There are plenty of options for the ACC to expand to 16. However, the conference is still reeling from the last expansion controversy, where they added Boston College instead of West Virginia. Certainly, if the ACC expands beyond 12, they will have to pay attention to the rivalries and expand in a manner that will let West Virgina and Virginia Tech play every season. They will need to allow other rivalries to flourish as well.

Source: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/759477-should-the-acc-consider-becoming-the-nations-first-16-team-super-conference

Big 12--Now that Texas A&M is staying, the question for the Big 12 is how to keep the Aggies. There is a revenue distribution problem in the Big 12. The question is how to more evenly distribute the kitty. Perhaps the conference can negotiate a monster TV deal by expanding back to 12. Will that bring stability back to the conference? If so, who should they bring into the fold? Brigham Young and Notre Dame, with their independent TV deals may not be the best idea if the goal is to bring stability and more even revenue to the conference. Does the conference then add Memphis, with it's strong Basketball program and bowl, but a weak football program make sense? How about stealing Arizona and Arizona State from the PAC-12? Certainly there are no easy answers for the Big 12 at this point.

Big East--This is a conference that needs to be proactive. They showed a defensive move when they recently added TCU. In doing so, they both strengthen their football and weaken their biggest threat to keeping their BCS automatic qualification status. The next logical step is to spin off the basketball-only schools into a new conference and add three more good football schools to expand the football Big East to 12. 16 is too big of a step for the Big East at this time.

Big 10--The Big 10 has been rumored for a long time to be expanding to 16. But probably will not be the first unless Notre Dame joins.

Conference USA--This is another conference that is threatened at this point. They were left untouched by the last round of conference realignment. They will not be so lucky this time. The Big East short list for expansion includes several Conference USA schools. Does it make sense to expand beyond 12 before this happens? C-USA does not seem to want this.

Mid American--The conference is expanding to 14 next year with the addition of U-Mass. They may be ready to accept any other current FCS program in the midwest or northeast region that is willing to move up.

Mountain West--They decided not to expand to 12 in January. Does the Texas A&M situation and the possibility that the Big 12 will return to 12 make them change their mind?

PAC-12--The Big 12 looks volatile. Is now the time to make another offer to Texas and others and expand to 16?

SEC--The SEC is not expanding to 16, yet. But they have set up the criteria in doing so.

WAC--The WAC would expand if they could find schools willing to join.

Sun Belt--The conference is expanding to 10 next year with the addition of South Alabama. They are waiting for Appalachian State and Georgia Southern, but perhaps those schools will end up in Conference USA instead.

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