The Computer Predicts.

I have taken a look at Sagarin's first computer ranking for the season. I do not put a lot of stock in pre-season computer rankings, because there is no strength of schedule component. There is also no "intangible" component...how the players adapt to pressure, experience, etc. Here is how are Utah 5 will do if Jeff Sagarin's computer is correct.

Instead of power rankings, I will run this output every week. It will be fun to see how it changes. This does not match my earlier prediction. This is computer based. My earlier prediction was my opinion.

Brigham Young.
Computers predict a successful first season as an independent for BYU.

September 3 Final BYU 14 Ole Miss 13...Computer predicted a 1 point Cougar victory.
September 10 @ Texas...BYU loses by 10.
September 17 Utah...BYU wins by 1.
September 23 Central Florida...BYU wins by 10.
September 30 Utah State...BYU wins by 21.
October 8 San Jose State...BYU wins by 27.
October 15 @ Oregon State...BYU loses by 4.
October 22 Idaho State...BYU wins by 40.
October 28 v TCU...BYU loses by 11.
November 12 Idaho...BYU wins by 20.
November 19 New Mexico State...BYU wins by 30.
December 3 @ Hawaii...BYU wins by 5.
Armed Forces Bowl
December 30 v Southern Mississippi...BYU wins by 7.
BYU finishes 10-3. Could end up 8-5.

Utah
Computers predict lots of heartbreak for the Utes.

September 1 Final...27-10 Utah.  Computer predicted a 28-point Ute victory.
September 10 @ USC...Utah loses by 8.
September 17 @ BYU...Utah loses by 1.
October 1 Washington...Utah wins by 11.
October 8 Arizona State...Utah wins by 7.
October 15 @ Pittsburgh...Utah loses by 1.
October 22 @ California...Utah loses by 1.
October 29 Oregon State...Utah wins by 4.
November 5 @ Arizona...Utah loses by 1.
November 12 UCLA...Utah wins by 12.
November 19 @ Washington State...Utah wins by 17.
November 25 Colorado...Utah wins 16.
Utah qualifies for the PAC-12 title game because USC is ineligible and because they will own a tie-breaker over Arizona State.
December 3 @ Oregon...Utah loses by 11.
Sun Bowl
December 28 v Clemson...Utah wins by 3.
Utah finishes 8-6, 6-4 in conference play. Could be 12-2, 8-2 in conference play.

Conference Projection (Includes conf championship, but not the bowls)

North

Oregon 13-0, 10-0 (BCS Championship vs Alabama)
Stanford 10-2, 7-2 (Fiesta vs Oklahoma)
Oregon State 10-2, 7-2 (Alamo vs. Missouri)
California 6-6, 3-6 (Kraft Fight Hunger vs North Carolina)
Washington 4-8, 2-7
Washington State 2-10, 0-9

South

1. USC 11-1, 8-1 (Ineligible)
2. Utah (tie) 7-6, 6-4 (Sun vs. Clemson) (4th loss is conf championship)
2. Arizona State 9-3, 6-3 (Holiday vs Texas Tech)
4. Arizona 6-6, 4-5 (Las Vegas vs Boise State)
5. UCLA 3-9, 2-7
6. Colorado 3-9, 1-8
Note: The PAC-12 will not have a team for the New Mexico Bowl. The bid goes to a WAC team instead.


Utah State
Aggies are just that close to going bowling in 2011.

September 3 Final Auburn 41 Utah State 38...Computers predicted a 30 point Tiger victory.
September 10 Weber State...USU wins by 5.
September 24 Colorado State...USU wins by 2.
September 30 @ BYU...USU loses by 21.
October 8 Wyoming...USU wins in OT.
October 15 @ Fresno State...USU loses by 13.
October 22 Louisiana Tech...USU loses in OT.
November 5 @ Hawaii...USU loses by 23.
November 12 San Jose State...USU wins by 7.
November 19 @ Idaho...USU loses by 4.
November 26 Nevada...USU loses by 12.
December 3 @ New Mexico State...USU wins by 5.

USU finishes 5-7, 2-5 in WAC play. They could end up 6-6 but will still have to hope some other conference does not have enough bowl eligible teams.

Conference Projection (Bowl)
Nevada 9-3, 7-0 (Poinsettia vs. Air Force)
Hawaii 10-2, 6-1 (Hawaii vs SMU)
Fresno State 7-5, 5-2 (Idaho Famous Potato vs. Central Michigan)
Louisiana Tech 6-6, 4-3 (New Mexico vs. Toledo)
Idaho 5-7, 3-4
Utah State 5-7, 2-5
San Jose State 1-11, 1-6
New Mexico State 1-11, 0-7

Weber State
Could make the FCS playoffs again?

September 3 Wyoming 35 Weber State 32...Computer predicted a 7 point Cowboy win.
September 10 @ Utah State...Weber loses by 5.
September 17 Sacramento State...Weber wins by 5.
September 24 @ Northern Colorado...Weber wins by 9.
October 1 @ Eastern Washington...Weber loses by 10.
October 15 Idaho State...Weber wins by 18.
October 22 Southern Utah...Weber wins by 8.
October 29 @ Montana...Weber loses by 11.
November 5 Montana State...Weber wins by 3.
November 12 Northern Arizona...Weber wins by 3.
November 19 @ Portland State...Weber wins by 6.

Weber finishes 7-4, 6-2 in conference play...Enough wins to qualify for FCS playoffs, RPI is close, but probably not high enough.

Conference Projection
1. Eastern Washington (Tie) 9-2, 7-1
1. Montana 9-2, 7-1
3. Weber State (Tie) 7-4, 6-2
3. Montana State 8-3, 6-2
5. Northern Arizona 6-5, 4-4
6. Sacramento State 5-6, 3-5
7. Portland State 4-7, 2-6
8. Northern Colorado 3-8, 1-7
9. Idaho State 1-11, 0-8

Southern Utah
No love from the computers for the T-Birds this year.

September 3 Final South Dakota State 29 SUU 28...Computer predicted a 6 point Jackrabbit victory.
September 10 Sacramento State...SUU wins by 1
September 17 UTSA...SUU wins by 16.
September 24 @ UNLV...SUU loses by 10.
October 1 North Dakota...SUU wins by 6.
October 8 @ South Dakota...SUU wins by 2.
October 15 @ Cal Poly...SUU loses by 6.
October 29 UC Davis...SUU wins by 3.
November 12 @ Northern Iowa...SUU loses by 14.
November 19 Northern Arizona...SUU loses by 8.

SUU finishes 5-6, 3-1 in conference play.

Conference Projection
1. Cal-Poly 6-5, 4-0
2. Southern Utah 5-6, 3-1
3. UC Davis 5-6, 2-2
4. North Dakota 6-5, 1-3
5. South Dakota 3-8, 0-4

BTW--BCS Bowl Pairings. Rose...TCU vs. Ohio State Fiesta...Oklahoma vs Stanford Sugar...Florida vs Oklahoma State Orange...Virginia Tech vs West Virginia BCS Championship...Oregon vs. Alabama Final analysis...there is a reason why they play the game.