What scenario would finish off the WAC for good, you ask? Isn't is all-but finished anyway? Not exactly. There are still 7 football members, one short of the 8 needed for BCS consideration. However, that point is moot considering the quality of the remaining programs. They still have one bowl tie-in and certainly could have good fill-in programs for other bowls, should there be openings.
What is the magic number? Following the same pattern as the Big West Conference, it is 5. At 6, you still have a conference, at 5 you do not. The Big West Conference stopped sponsoring football after the 2000 season when Boise state left to join the WAC. Three of the remaining 5, Utah State, Idaho and New Mexico State joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and kept their other sports with the Big West until they joined the WAC. The other 2, North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt full-time.
Therefore, the WAC is two programs away from being a basketball-only conference or from going out of business completely. What programs are likely to go and where are they likely to go to?
The WAC is likely one domino away from being history. Let's examine why.
Higher Risk
Utah State is likely to leave the WAC next if the Mountain West needs a replacement. The MWC will have 9 full-time members in 2012 plus Hawaii as a football-only member. If Air Force or Bosie State joins the Big 12, as they are considered by many to be on the Big 12 short list, then look for Utah State to get an invite to the MWC.
Idaho has had attendance issues ever since the day it moved up from the FCS back in the 1990s. They have a stadium that is not big enough, and even though they are indoors, their fans have to travel a long way to get to the games from wherever in the state they come from. During bad whether is when Idaho has the most trouble with attendance. Idaho could be relegated to the FCS by the NCAA.
San Jose State is considered an afterthought in the Bay Area sports world. After the 49ers, Raiders, Athletics, Giants, Warriors, Sharks, Golden Bears and Cardinal is there any room left in the hearts of Northern California for the Spartans? Even so, they have a market that would also be attractive to the Mountain West, but only if the MWC expands to 12 or loses more than 1 school.
UTSA plays in the Alamodome, and only shares their market with the NBA's Spurs. There isn't even a AAA baseball team in the Alamo city. This has got Boise State type potential written all over it. Should be an attractive option to Conference USA should they need to rebuild.
Louisiana Tech has been hoping to get into Conference USA since trouble began in WAC-land last year. Sure, there is some basketball tradition in Rushton, but not much else. At least the Sun Belt is a better geographical fit than the WAC.
Lower Risk
Texas State took the WAC invitation ahead of waiting for the Sun Belt in upgrading their program.
New Mexico State has to be wondering why they ever left the Sun Belt Conference to begin with.
Is there hope?
-Montana and any of a slew of other FCS programs could change their mind about moving conferences and upgrading to the FBS.
-Some Big West programs, like Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara or Pacific could return to the Gridiron and join the WAC as football-only members.
-The NCAA could put a moratorium on FBS conference expansion, except for FCS members upgrading. This could stabilize the WAC as well as other conferences.
The Big 12 could dissolve and leave Iowa State and/or Baylor for the WAC to pick up.
What could kill the WAC?
-If the Big 12 invites Air Force or Boise State. The MWC would probably invite Utah State to take their place.
-If C-USA loses UCF, Houston or SMU and invites UTSA and/or Louisiana Tech as replacements.
-If Idaho is relegated back to the FCS due to attendance.
It would take two of the five to kill football in the WAC.
In review, the demise of Big West Conference football. In 1969, the Big West Conference formed as the PCAA with 7 members. Here is how it when down.
Original 7
San Diego State--Joined the WAC in 1976
Long Beach State--Dropped football after 1991 season
Fresno State--Joined the WAC in 1992
Pacific--Dropped football after 1995 season
San Jose State--Joined the WAC in 1996
UC Santa Barbara--Dropped to D-IAA (FCS) in 1971 and dropped football after 1989. Rejoined as a non-football school in 1975
CS Los Angeles--Stopped sponsoring sports after 1971
CS Fullerton--Joined in 1975 dropped football after 1992 season
UC Irvine joined as a non-football School in 1977
Utah State--Joined in 1978 and stayed until 2000
UNLV--Joined in 1982, joined WAC in 1996
New Mexico State--Joined in 1984 and stayed until 2000
Nevada--Joined in 1992 and joined WAC in 2000
Louisiana Layfayete*--Joined in 1993 Joined Sun Belt in 1996
Northern Illinois*--Joined in 1993 joined MAC in 1996
Arkansas State*--Joined in 1993 joined ?Sun Belt in 1996 rejoined in 1999 Stayed until 2000.
Louisiana Tech*--Joined in 1993 joined Sun Belt in 1996
Cal Poly--Joined in 1996 but kept football program at (D-IAA) FCS level.
Idaho--Joined in 1996 and stayed until 2000
North Texas--Joined in 1996 stayed until 2000
Boise State--Joined in 1996 joined WAC in 2001. It was the loss of Boise State that caused the Big West to stop sponsoring football.
After Football
CS Northridge--Joined in 2001 after dropping football
UC Riverside--Joined in 2001
UC Davis--Joined in 2007
Hawaii--Will join in 2012, but the football Warriors will be part of the MWC.
*Football-only member
After the 2000 season when Boise State was invited to join the WAC; Utah State, New Mexico State and Idaho joined the Sun Belt Conference for football only and later joined the WAC. North Texas and Arkansas State joined the Sun Belt Conference for all sports.
Similarities between the WAC and Big West
-All original WAC members are gone. All original Big West members had either moved on or dropped football by 1995.
-Big West became geographically dispersed. Travel costs overwhelmed many.
-Big West was divided between football-only members, full sports members, members with football programs in the lower division and non-football members. There was a loss of unity. The non-football members eventually won out.
-It was the loss of Boise State that put WAC football on life support. It was the loss of Boise State that put an end to Big West football. Another Boise State move could be the domino that ends WAC football.
Finally,
I believe that with the addition of Devner, Seattle and Texas Arlington, and with CS Bakersfield and Utah Valley still interested, the Western Athletic Conference, like the Big West, will continue as a non-football conference.
1 comment:
Big West football history is really interesting. To think what could have been:
Idaho had an invitation to join the Big West in 1972 but the State Board of Education wouldn't let the Vandals leave the Big Sky and Boise State behind. It would have been interesting to see the consequences of that.
A league of Idaho, Long Beach, Fresno, Pacific, San Jose, Utah State, Fullerton, and maybe Boise State and New Mexico State would have been a nice league.
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