Mountain West Conference Strength

One of the reasons that the MWC is not an automatic qualifier for the BCS has to do with the strength of the conference and the strength of the schedule. After watching Colorado State beat Colorado, I occurred to me that the MWC may have arrived. Six conference members were victorious in their first game and TCU has yet to open the season. The MWC has the potential to have three, four or even more teams go unbeaten in their non-conference schedule. That is BCS-conference stuff. Here is what the schedule looks like

Air Force--Road games against Minnesota and Navy. Home game against Army
BYU--Road game against Tulane. Home games against Florida State and Utah State
Colorado State--Home games against Weber State and Nevada and a road game against Idaho
TCU--Road games against Virginia and Clemson and home games against Texas A&M San Marcos and SMU
Utah--Road games against San Jose State and Oregon with a home game against Louisville
UNLV--Home games against Oregon State and Hawaii, road game against Nevada
Wyoming--Home game against Texas, road games against Colorado and Florida Atlantic

Chances of going unbeaten outside of MWC play from best to worst.
1. Colorado State should easily beat Weber State and Idaho and will be favored to beat Nevada at home.
2. BYU will be favored in all of their remaining games. They have to avoid a let down against Tulane, and FSU will be tough. They could also look past Utah State and find themselves in a shootout.
3. Utah may find themselves as the favorite against the Ducks and should win the other two.
4. TCU will be challenged by Clemson in Death Valley but should win the other three.
5. Air Force will not be favored in either of the road games, but they are winnable games for Troy Calhoun's team. Air Force should take Army.
6. UNLV will not be favored to beat Oregon State, not will they be the favorite to win the Fremont Cannon this year, but these are winnable games for them. They should handle a weak Hawaii team in Sin City.
7. Wyoming beating Texas would eclipse BYU's win over Oklahoma as the biggest upset so far this year. Colorado did not look strong against Colorado State, and perhaps the 'Boys can win one there. And FAU will also be favored to take the Cowboys.

Now, if you have not done the math, if you win all four of your non conference games, you only need to win two conference games to be bowl eligible. If UNLV wins just two more non conference games, they will only need to win 3 conference games to get to a bowl. They can beat Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego state. If your are UNLV, Colorado Sate or Wyoming, becoming bowl eligible this year will be big. If you can't win a conference championship, getting to a bowl will do.

I think that Colorado State, Utah, BYU and TCU will all get four wins outside the conference. UNLV will get three and Air Force will get two.