While the college football season is finishing about how I expected it to, and because I have nothing of quality to add to the conversation until it is all over, I am changing the subject for this week's entry.
Promotion/Relegation is something that is familiar to sports fans in Europe, it is not something that is practiced here in the United States. Although some suggest that this could be part of the answer for College Football, it has never been tried or suggested at the professional level.
This is how it works. We will use the English Premier League as an example. When the football (soccer) season is over in the EPL, the three worst teams in the EPL are relegated to the Football Championship League to play next season. In the meantime, the two best teams plus the winner of a playoff between teams #4-7 are promoted to the EPL. For the record, even though the Football Championship League is technically a minor league, it does not a developmental league like the baseball minor leagues, the 20 teams in that league are independent.
Therefore, it would be like demoting the worst team from the American League, the Texas Rangers, and the worst team in the National League, the Arizona Diamondbacks to the AAA level and promoting the best team from the International League, the Syracuse Nationals and the best team from the Pacific Coast League, the Las Vegas 51s.
This sounds like a great idea, at first. What better way to stop your favorite NBA team from tanking than the threat of being placed in the NBA-DL next season? Waiting for an NFL franchise in your town? Well, if you hometown teams wins the minor league championship, you get the the opportunity to move up with it.
But there is a very good reason why this will never happen in the United States, even in Major League Soccer. It's called politics.
In the US, we have the nicest facilities on the planet. We are not like Europe, where they will put billions into facilities for the Olympic Games just to see them waste away in just a little over a decade. When we put taxpayer dollars into a facility, we expect it to be fill to capacity every game day. The average per game attendance in Major League Baseball is around 30,000. At the AAA level, it's 6,000. Do you think any city will put millions of taxpayer dollars into stadiums under the risk that attendance will fall by 80% if the star player blows a knee? That type of spending will cause problems on Election Day. No city in America is sport-crazy enough to see 30,000 fans show up for a minor league team.
It may be just like the example I provided above. Would people in Phoenix really be happy about losing out to Las Vegas?
Fans may eventually understand that this is part of the game, and many fair-weather fans will find other bandwagons to jump on. But if US leagues adopt Promotion/Relegation, we can expect that teams will have to find another way to finance the building of facilities. In the EPL, some teams like Chelsea, play in stadiums that are many decades old. Their stadium was built in late 1800s, and has been expanded, improved and modernized as the years have rolled on. But no public dollars have been involved. While not every stadium in Europe has been built without help from taxpayers, it is rare that this happens here in the US, while it is common in Europe.
This may sound like a godsend to those against public financing of ballparks, the business community may morn. Chambers of commerce love having their city defined as a major league city. Many business deals are made on the baselines and sidelines. For many cities in America, their team is the only game in town. And for some cities, their teams are a source of public pride and positive publicity. For that reason, there will always be pressure on cities to pour money into sports venues and keep their cities at major league levels.
Potential Cities for Relegation Leagues by Sport.
NFL
Los Angeles
Portland
Columbus
Salt Lake City
Orlando
San Antonio
Sacramento
Oklahoma City
Virginia Beach
Memphis
Raleigh
Larger NFL Markets like New York, Chicago, Houston
MLB
Indianapolis*
Charlotte*
Nashville*
Buffalo*
New Orleans*
Montreal
Vancouver
Portland
Columbus*
Calgary
Salt Lake City*
Edmonton
Ottawa
Winnepeg
Orlando
San Antonio
Sacramento*
Oklahoma City*
(*Denotes city with AAA baseball team)
Also larger MLB markets such as New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston
NBA
Tampa
Pittsburgh
Seattle
Kansas City
San Deigo
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Nashville
Buffalo
Montreal
Vancouver
Columbus
Calgary
Edmonton
Ottawa
Winnepeg
Jacksonville
Rahleigh
NHL
Houston
Atlanta
Cleveland
Seattle
Kansas City
San Diego
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Milwaukee
Charlotte
New Orleans
Portland
Salt Lake City
Plus larger NHL markets such as New York, Chicago and Toronto
MLS
Phoenix
Detroit
Minneapolis
Tamps
St. Louis
Cleveland
Pittsburgh
San Diego
Baltimore
Cincinnati
Indianapolis
Milwaukee
Charlotte
Nashville
Buffalo
New Orleans
Calgary
Edmonton
San Antonio
Sacramento
Plus larger markets in MLS like Houston and Chicago
For reference, football (soccer) teams in the London Area (12)
English Premier League (6)
Arsenal
Chelsea
Crystal Palace
Queen's Park Rangers
Tottenham
West Ham United
Football League Championship (5)
Brentford
Charleton Athletic
Fullham
Milwall
Watford
League One (1)
Leyton Orient
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Is it time for Bronco Mendenhall to Go?
Before you read anything else you should know, even though I have no inside information, I am confident that Bronco Mendenall will not get fired after this season. Gary Crowton had three losing seasons before he was asked to quit. Bronco Mendenhall deserves at least that. I have read rumors in chat rooms, but nothing credible indicating that boosters are beginning to withhold their support of the program.
College football is evolving right now. Only time will tell if this season is a blip on the radar or the beginning of irrelevance in Provo. It seems that the college football powers are willing to go on a spending spree right now, and no one knows where it will end. But sooner or later, it will end. It has to. The mission of every university involves creating professionals in something other than sports. Some do this by with research while others focus on teaching. As I read about Boise State's plans to provide stipends for the full cost of education, I wondered how they would pay for it. I quote this this paper.
"Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) schools spent more than $91,000 per athlete compared with just over $13,000 per student. Yet students across the country faced steep tuition hikes and increased fees."
This type of spending is not happening at BYU. According to this Department of Education website, BYU spends about 23,000 per football player. The total cost of education at BYU for football player would probably add significantly to this total, but BYU may still be the model of efficiency in college football. And, it is still considered a tuition bargain, even for non-LDS athletes. According to the site, in the 2012-2013 school year, BYU athletics earned five millions dollar profit. They have about 8,000 left for each student athlete. BYU may drop out of an arms race, if it comes to that, but most likely they can absorb the extra costs.
The real problems for BYU are on the field this year. They are not only mired in a 4-game losing streak, they are losing games in ways that are rare. BYU doesn't often give up 2nd half leads and lose, but that has happened twice this year. They are not often out-coached by Utah State or Boise State. I can't remember the last time BYU gave up 31 points in the 2nd quarter alone. It has indeed been surreal.
College football is evolving right now. Only time will tell if this season is a blip on the radar or the beginning of irrelevance in Provo. It seems that the college football powers are willing to go on a spending spree right now, and no one knows where it will end. But sooner or later, it will end. It has to. The mission of every university involves creating professionals in something other than sports. Some do this by with research while others focus on teaching. As I read about Boise State's plans to provide stipends for the full cost of education, I wondered how they would pay for it. I quote this this paper.
"Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) schools spent more than $91,000 per athlete compared with just over $13,000 per student. Yet students across the country faced steep tuition hikes and increased fees."
This type of spending is not happening at BYU. According to this Department of Education website, BYU spends about 23,000 per football player. The total cost of education at BYU for football player would probably add significantly to this total, but BYU may still be the model of efficiency in college football. And, it is still considered a tuition bargain, even for non-LDS athletes. According to the site, in the 2012-2013 school year, BYU athletics earned five millions dollar profit. They have about 8,000 left for each student athlete. BYU may drop out of an arms race, if it comes to that, but most likely they can absorb the extra costs.
The real problems for BYU are on the field this year. They are not only mired in a 4-game losing streak, they are losing games in ways that are rare. BYU doesn't often give up 2nd half leads and lose, but that has happened twice this year. They are not often out-coached by Utah State or Boise State. I can't remember the last time BYU gave up 31 points in the 2nd quarter alone. It has indeed been surreal.
There are other cracks in the wall right now. Attendance is down this season, and sellouts against out-of-state teams are becoming rare.
This hasn't been the only disappointing season in Provo, recently. BYU exceeded expectations in 2006, when they won the conference championship and had a dominating win against Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Things were looking up and fans knew that BYU would join rival Utah as a BCS buster. Every season since has seen disappointment in one degree or another. BYU has been good, and some-times, scary good. But they have failed to turn the corner to greatness.
The question real question is, what are the problems in Provo and why can't teams that are coached by Bronco turn the corner? There is no doubt that BYU, at best, has been in decline since 2009 and the debate is how steep has that decline been. This year, BYU has been plagued with injuries, and that has led to at least 2 of the 4 losses this season. The other 2 losses can clearly be blamed upon the coaching staff and a lack of preparation for those games.
Even when Mendenhall was winning 10 games per season, this was still an issue. Back to the 2009 season, BYU was well prepared for their opener and won a close game against Oklahoma on a neutral field. Then, later that same season, they were blown out by Florida State at home. Yes, it was Florida State, but it wasn't one of their better seasons once all was said and done. And even though BYU went 11-2 in 2009, finishing with an overtime win over Utah and a dominating Las Vegas Bowl victory over Oregon State, it wasn't all it promised to be after that afternoon was over in Arlington. TCU won the Mountain West Championship that year and then played in the Fiesta Bowl and lost to Boise State.
BYU fans have been waiting for that moment of their own for years, but it was always gone to someone else. It was Utah, at first, followed by Boise State then Hawaii, and then TCU. All rivals to some degree, but never BYU. They never busted the BCS and will have to wait another season or two to bust the new playoff. But it's not as if there has not been inconsistency in Provo. Every year begins with promise, and every season has it's degree of sadness.
If there is one thing that you can count on from a Bronco Mendenhall team, it is at least two unprepared, under-coached games every single season. It has happened at least twice every season, Bronco has stepped to his post-game podium and said, "sorry, that was my bad." As a results, it's always next year. And perhaps Cougar fans have had enough.
While this year's performance, or Brocno's history may not warrant dismissal, it is certainly not going to get the program to the level that many fans crave. You might be in the Big 12, but if you win the conference championship, you won't be playing for the national championship. Because your two losses will disqualify you. And if you can't get a national championship in the Big 12, you definitely won't get one as an independent. It won't work as member of the Mountain West and it won't work as a member of the AAC. It just won't work. A national champion has to be ready to play every single week without fail. No excuses. You have to win.
If you are satisfied with just conference championships, then BYU should join a conference. They will win one every once in a while with Mendenhall at the helm. Probably enough for fans to happy. If you want to win a national championship, then you need a coach that will have his team properly prepared every single Saturday without fail and without excuse. Conference affiliation or independent. Every Saturday means every single one from September to November.
This hasn't been the only disappointing season in Provo, recently. BYU exceeded expectations in 2006, when they won the conference championship and had a dominating win against Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Things were looking up and fans knew that BYU would join rival Utah as a BCS buster. Every season since has seen disappointment in one degree or another. BYU has been good, and some-times, scary good. But they have failed to turn the corner to greatness.
The question real question is, what are the problems in Provo and why can't teams that are coached by Bronco turn the corner? There is no doubt that BYU, at best, has been in decline since 2009 and the debate is how steep has that decline been. This year, BYU has been plagued with injuries, and that has led to at least 2 of the 4 losses this season. The other 2 losses can clearly be blamed upon the coaching staff and a lack of preparation for those games.
Even when Mendenhall was winning 10 games per season, this was still an issue. Back to the 2009 season, BYU was well prepared for their opener and won a close game against Oklahoma on a neutral field. Then, later that same season, they were blown out by Florida State at home. Yes, it was Florida State, but it wasn't one of their better seasons once all was said and done. And even though BYU went 11-2 in 2009, finishing with an overtime win over Utah and a dominating Las Vegas Bowl victory over Oregon State, it wasn't all it promised to be after that afternoon was over in Arlington. TCU won the Mountain West Championship that year and then played in the Fiesta Bowl and lost to Boise State.
BYU fans have been waiting for that moment of their own for years, but it was always gone to someone else. It was Utah, at first, followed by Boise State then Hawaii, and then TCU. All rivals to some degree, but never BYU. They never busted the BCS and will have to wait another season or two to bust the new playoff. But it's not as if there has not been inconsistency in Provo. Every year begins with promise, and every season has it's degree of sadness.
If there is one thing that you can count on from a Bronco Mendenhall team, it is at least two unprepared, under-coached games every single season. It has happened at least twice every season, Bronco has stepped to his post-game podium and said, "sorry, that was my bad." As a results, it's always next year. And perhaps Cougar fans have had enough.
While this year's performance, or Brocno's history may not warrant dismissal, it is certainly not going to get the program to the level that many fans crave. You might be in the Big 12, but if you win the conference championship, you won't be playing for the national championship. Because your two losses will disqualify you. And if you can't get a national championship in the Big 12, you definitely won't get one as an independent. It won't work as member of the Mountain West and it won't work as a member of the AAC. It just won't work. A national champion has to be ready to play every single week without fail. No excuses. You have to win.
If you are satisfied with just conference championships, then BYU should join a conference. They will win one every once in a while with Mendenhall at the helm. Probably enough for fans to happy. If you want to win a national championship, then you need a coach that will have his team properly prepared every single Saturday without fail and without excuse. Conference affiliation or independent. Every Saturday means every single one from September to November.
Even BYU fans who are apologists for Bronco Mendenhall probably understand this principle. Either you learn to look past this, or you support your team whatever may come. For me, you don't need to win every game, but there is no excuse for not be ready to play every week. I think that fans should accept nothing less.
Is there someone who can have his team ready to play every week? Is there someone who can meet the standards of the LDS Church and have the Cougars ready every single Saturday without fail? There probably is. But if Bronco were to leave now, many fans may wish for Kalani Sitaki, but BYU may end up with Dave Campo (yes, the former Dallas Cowboy coach is an LDS church member who is currently the Defensive Coordinator at Kansas.). BYU may end up hiring someone you would not expect, someone who doesn't come from the traditional college path of being a coordinator before becoming a coach, but who understands that his team need to be ready and knows how to get them there.
BYU will have to open their pockets as well as the hearts to get the man they need. Are they prepared to do that? They have the money. Is now the time? If it is, don't be surprised that a mission call is found for Bronco. There are some high profile mission president openings coming this year. Hong Kong, London, Moscow, Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Oakland, Sydney. It would make one heck of a headline.
However, I expect Bronco to stay another year or two. And while he is here, expect more of the same. His teams will beat who they should, they just won't win enough games to win a championship. And yes, there will be a couple of stinkers every season where Bronco steps to the mike and falls on his sword.
Is there someone who can have his team ready to play every week? Is there someone who can meet the standards of the LDS Church and have the Cougars ready every single Saturday without fail? There probably is. But if Bronco were to leave now, many fans may wish for Kalani Sitaki, but BYU may end up with Dave Campo (yes, the former Dallas Cowboy coach is an LDS church member who is currently the Defensive Coordinator at Kansas.). BYU may end up hiring someone you would not expect, someone who doesn't come from the traditional college path of being a coordinator before becoming a coach, but who understands that his team need to be ready and knows how to get them there.
BYU will have to open their pockets as well as the hearts to get the man they need. Are they prepared to do that? They have the money. Is now the time? If it is, don't be surprised that a mission call is found for Bronco. There are some high profile mission president openings coming this year. Hong Kong, London, Moscow, Chicago, Boston, New York, Washington DC, Atlanta, Oakland, Sydney. It would make one heck of a headline.
However, I expect Bronco to stay another year or two. And while he is here, expect more of the same. His teams will beat who they should, they just won't win enough games to win a championship. And yes, there will be a couple of stinkers every season where Bronco steps to the mike and falls on his sword.
Turning the Corner
Turning the corner describes the week that was in college football in Utah this week. Please read on.
Boise State 55 BYU 30
BYU fans are not used to seeing their team lose like this. In fact, BYU fans are used to seeing their Cougars dish it out in games like this one, so much so that it could be a GEICO commercial. There was nothing that Bronco Mendenhall's defense could do to stop the Bronco attack. I will have more about the state of the BYU football program in a follow-up post.
Predicted outcome
Worst Case 5-7
Best Case 7-5
Projected Win
Savannah State
Projected Loss
California
Toss Up
Middle Tennessee
UNLV
Utah 24 USC 21
You could expect that Utah would beat the Trojans at home, but USC is still USC and this was not an easy win for the Utes. If they are to win the South Division, no wins from this point forward will be easy. But this game was fun to watch, even though there were some missed opportunities by both teams. There were mistakes made, but that didn't happen at the end of the game. It will be fun watching Utah, Arizona and Arizona State break up the current log jam at the top of the division.
Predicted Outcome
Worst Case 7-5
Best Case 11-1
Projected Wins
Colorado
Toss Up
Arizona State
Oregon
Stanford
Arizona
Utah State 35 UNLV 20
The rallying cry in Logan right now could be, "our 4th String QB is better than your 4th string QB." Matt Wells is certainly not one to use injuries as an excuse. Of course that comes from the proper preparation of backups. Your 4th stringers would certainly do well if they were prepared to take over when those in front of them go down to injury.
Predicted finish 8-4
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Projected loss
Boise State
Don't have time to wallow in the misery of our FCS teams this week. But I will note that Southern Utah took it to North Dakota last weekend. There is hope that Weber State will finish with a win after all.
Sunday, October 19, 2014
If it weren't for the Utes...
It it were not for the Utes, the last weekend in the state would have been a complete disaster.
BYU (4-3)
The dream season is turning into a nightmare. BYU has overcome mid-season swoons before. And they may do so again. Perhaps Boise State will look past them? Yea, right, and someday I will dunk over Karl Malone. Nobody looks past BYU, even when they are struggling. The Cougars are currently riding a 3-game losing streak and it look like it will be longer. Three game losing streaks have happened in the Bronco Era, but not this late in the season. The last time BYU lost 4 in a row was 1993. But they still won the conference championship that year. The last time BYU lost 5 in a row...1968 where the team had a 7-game losing streak. That was the season BYU was the target of civil rights protests. BYU fans are not used to this kind of futility. Does that mean that they are spoiled?
Best Case (7-5)
Worst Case (5-7)
Probable Losses
Boise State
California
Probable Win
Savanah State
Toss Up
Middle Tennessee
UNLV
Utah (5-1)
Has Utah finally turned the corner in the PAC-12. I think that will be obvious by the end of the season. And you certainly won't need little 'ol me to tell that has happened. The hardest stretch of the season now approaches. USC, Oregon, Arizona are among the coming games. To me, however, it certainly seems that Utah has learned some lessons and people in the PAC-12 should take them seriously.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 10-2
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Wins
Colorado
Probable Losses
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah State (4-3)
I had a hunch that the high flying Aggies would come back to Earth in Fort Collins. Colorado State is the most improved team in the MWC this season. This was a game that they needed to take seriously. That did not happen and perhaps a chance at a MWC championship this year faded into the Rocky Mountain air. But USU is still going bowling, and possibly going to Hawaii. That is one heck of a consolation prize.
Projected Finish 8-4
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Projected loss
Boise State
Weber State (0-7)
No one expected that WSU would go to Bozeman and win, let alone keep the game close. It is probably WSU's 3rd moral victory of the season. There may be one or two real ones very soon.
Projected Finish
Best Case 3-9
Worst Case 2-10
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Probable Loss
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Idaho State
Southern Utah (1-7)
Idaho State is for real!!! Well, not really, but they are better and someone forgot to tell Ed Lamb and company. At least BYU fans have a sympathetic shoulder to cry on.
Projected Finish 2-11
Probable Win
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Montana
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
BYU (4-3)
The dream season is turning into a nightmare. BYU has overcome mid-season swoons before. And they may do so again. Perhaps Boise State will look past them? Yea, right, and someday I will dunk over Karl Malone. Nobody looks past BYU, even when they are struggling. The Cougars are currently riding a 3-game losing streak and it look like it will be longer. Three game losing streaks have happened in the Bronco Era, but not this late in the season. The last time BYU lost 4 in a row was 1993. But they still won the conference championship that year. The last time BYU lost 5 in a row...1968 where the team had a 7-game losing streak. That was the season BYU was the target of civil rights protests. BYU fans are not used to this kind of futility. Does that mean that they are spoiled?
Best Case (7-5)
Worst Case (5-7)
Probable Losses
Boise State
California
Probable Win
Savanah State
Toss Up
Middle Tennessee
UNLV
Utah (5-1)
Has Utah finally turned the corner in the PAC-12. I think that will be obvious by the end of the season. And you certainly won't need little 'ol me to tell that has happened. The hardest stretch of the season now approaches. USC, Oregon, Arizona are among the coming games. To me, however, it certainly seems that Utah has learned some lessons and people in the PAC-12 should take them seriously.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 10-2
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Wins
Colorado
Probable Losses
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Arizona State
Arizona
Utah State (4-3)
I had a hunch that the high flying Aggies would come back to Earth in Fort Collins. Colorado State is the most improved team in the MWC this season. This was a game that they needed to take seriously. That did not happen and perhaps a chance at a MWC championship this year faded into the Rocky Mountain air. But USU is still going bowling, and possibly going to Hawaii. That is one heck of a consolation prize.
Projected Finish 8-4
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Projected loss
Boise State
Weber State (0-7)
No one expected that WSU would go to Bozeman and win, let alone keep the game close. It is probably WSU's 3rd moral victory of the season. There may be one or two real ones very soon.
Projected Finish
Best Case 3-9
Worst Case 2-10
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Probable Loss
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Idaho State
Southern Utah (1-7)
Idaho State is for real!!! Well, not really, but they are better and someone forgot to tell Ed Lamb and company. At least BYU fans have a sympathetic shoulder to cry on.
Projected Finish 2-11
Probable Win
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Montana
Northern Arizona
Sacramento State
Sunday, October 12, 2014
This weekend did little to change my mind.
The Utes were off this week, while the only winner in the state was the Utah State Aggies.
BYU Cougars (2-4)
Although Christian Stewart did a better job as the starting quarterback than I thought he would, BYU still lost. But you can't really blame the inexperienced senior. He was hampered by inconsistent play calling and a weak defensive scheme. BYU could not hold onto a 4th quarter lead, but this time, there was no answer for the surge the other team put together.
I hope that no one still believes that BYU would have been unbeaten if Taysom Hill would have remained healthy. I doubt that a perfect season will happen for BYU while Bronco Mendenhall is head coach. He's a good coach, but he's not a great coach. I'm not certain he has the ability to transcend to the next level.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Losses
Boise State
California
Probable Wins
UNLV
Savanah State
Toss Up
Nevada
Middle Tennessee
Utah Utes (4-1)
They had the week off. However, the PAC-12 has been the most unpredictable this season. That could leave them (the PAC-12) out of the playoff this year.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 5-7
Probable Wins
Oregon State
Colorado
Probable Losses
Arizona State
Arizona
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Utah State (4-2)
The Aggies avoided the post-big-win letdown. They pounced on Falcon mistakes and built a big early lead and cruised to the finish line. Just don't expect the rest of the conference season to be this easy. The next game, at Colorado State, will define the rest of the season.
Projected finish
Best Case 9-3
Worst Case 8-4
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Toss Up
Colorado State
Projected Loss
Boise State
Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-6)
No upset this weekend in Cedar City. We will see about next weekend.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 5-7
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Montana
Toss Up
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
Weber State Wildcats (0-6)
Have the Wildcats touched bottom and are they working their way back. The answer is yes, but the results aren't showing in the win column, yet. That should change in the coming weeks.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
BYU Cougars (2-4)
Although Christian Stewart did a better job as the starting quarterback than I thought he would, BYU still lost. But you can't really blame the inexperienced senior. He was hampered by inconsistent play calling and a weak defensive scheme. BYU could not hold onto a 4th quarter lead, but this time, there was no answer for the surge the other team put together.
I hope that no one still believes that BYU would have been unbeaten if Taysom Hill would have remained healthy. I doubt that a perfect season will happen for BYU while Bronco Mendenhall is head coach. He's a good coach, but he's not a great coach. I'm not certain he has the ability to transcend to the next level.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Losses
Boise State
California
Probable Wins
UNLV
Savanah State
Toss Up
Nevada
Middle Tennessee
Utah Utes (4-1)
They had the week off. However, the PAC-12 has been the most unpredictable this season. That could leave them (the PAC-12) out of the playoff this year.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 5-7
Probable Wins
Oregon State
Colorado
Probable Losses
Arizona State
Arizona
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Utah State (4-2)
The Aggies avoided the post-big-win letdown. They pounced on Falcon mistakes and built a big early lead and cruised to the finish line. Just don't expect the rest of the conference season to be this easy. The next game, at Colorado State, will define the rest of the season.
Projected finish
Best Case 9-3
Worst Case 8-4
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Toss Up
Colorado State
Projected Loss
Boise State
Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-6)
No upset this weekend in Cedar City. We will see about next weekend.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 5-7
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Montana
Toss Up
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
Weber State Wildcats (0-6)
Have the Wildcats touched bottom and are they working their way back. The answer is yes, but the results aren't showing in the win column, yet. That should change in the coming weeks.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
Sunday, October 5, 2014
The Aftermath of Upset Week, What's Next?
BYU 4-1
The Cougars were shell shocked by Utah State in Provo on Friday night. However, most of the damage was done in the final four minutes of the first half when the Aggies turned a 7-14 deficit into a 28-14 lead. Outside of that 21-0 stretch, the Cougars outscored the Aggies 20-14. It still would have been a close game if it weren't for that 4-minute lapse. It is possible that if Taysom Hill had played in the 2nd half, where the Cougar defense adjusted and figured things out, that BYU could have won. But things did not turn out that way.
For both Cougar and Aggie fans, don't take too much stock into what happened in Provo on Friday. It is a rivalry game and I believe there was extra motivation for Utah State. It's not all that bad for BYU and not all that good for Utah State, but I will address the Aggies and their situation, later.
We will find out about how good of a coach and recruiter Bronco Mendenhall and his assistants are very soon. How soon the offense adjusts to way that Christian Stewart plays and how soon the defense corrects its problems. I would not be surprised if Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell is relieved of his coordinator duties or his play-calling duties or finds himself looking for a job after Monday, but his salvation may be that this is a short week.
If BYU quickly corrects their problems, they can finish the season 11-1 and be on track for a be reward next season when Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan are on the schedule. There really wasn't much of a chance for the Cougars this year to get into the playoffs, even if one of the New Years 6 bowls was in play. If they entertain UNLV still looking for win #5, and then they fail, then Coach Mendenhall should be on the hot seat. I will address that more in the weeks to come, but I will say a lot of the failures this season can be traced straight to the top.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Losses
Central Florida
Boise State
California
Probable Wins
UNLV
Savanah State
Toss Up
Nevada
Middle Tennessee
Utah Utes (4-1)
Yes, Utah did hang on to beat UCLA, who was previously ranked #8. However, it may have been more the Bruins looking past the Utes more than any other factor. Yes, the team and coach said, "We are taking Utah seriously." But UCLA didn't play like it in the first half
Yes, the Utes deserve credit. There were a lot of positives to build on. Especially the poised they showed on the last drive. Once UCLA took a 28-27 lead, there was a lot of moxie shown to drive the field for the game-winning field goal. No one would have docked the effort grade if they would have had a 3-and-out on the following drive.
The Utes will still need to play the rest of the season as the underdog in order to make a bowl game, but they are most of the way they. They will need to win at least one more game that they are not expected to, as they are only favored to beat the Colorado Buffaloes from this point forward. But I will give them more credit than that. The Utes are better than expected this season, and I expect that they will continue to prove that.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 5-7
Probable Wins
Oregon State
Colorado
Probable Losses
Arizona State
Arizona
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Utah State Aggies (3-2)
The first thing that the Aggie coaches must prepare for in the coming weeks is the "We Beat BYU" hangover. The rest of the season is not going to be like the 2nd quarter was in Provo. I'm sure the coaches know that, and I'm positive that many on the team realize that. Getting back to reality will be hard and hopefully it will not cost them a game. Their next game is a home game against Air Force, who is certainly capable of coming out of Logan on top. I suspect that the Aggies have the full attention of their opponents the rest of the way, because all of them have a similar history almost the same disdain for BYU that folks in Logan have. While the Aggies probably won't see the same team and the same flow that they had in Provo, they are certainly capable of winning the rest of their games. But their secret is out, and their opponents will be ready.
So, they beat BYU and yet I predict that the finish will be worse? Again, let's see how they respond in Logan on Saturday vs. the Falcons. But, except for TCU, most of the MWC teams that left Provo with a victory usually lost after beating the Cougars.
Projected finish
Best Case 9-3
Worst Case 7-5
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Toss Up
Air Force
Colorado State
Projected Loss
Boise State
Weber State 0-5
The Wildcats have had a lot to work on during the bye week. I have not changed my opinion of them. One note is that Idaho State has moved way up the Sagarin rankings relative to the rest of the conference. I will not, however, believe that Idaho State is any different than years before until they win another game.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
Southern Utah (1-5)
The offense is now moving the ball, but the defense is not what fans in Cedar City are used to. That is one reason the Thunderbirds lost at Cal Poly on Saturday. It was a heart-breaker for them, as they had a 3-point lead at the end of the third quarter, only to surrender two quick touchdowns. Of the four drives in the 4th quarter, one would end in a missed and another quickly ended in the interception. The last time SUU had the ball, they scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion. They kicked the ball deep as there was still over 3 minutes on the clock, but Cal Poly was able to drive 61 yards and run the clock out.
That past few season, a trip to Cedar City has been problemsome for the leaders of the Big Sky Conference. Eastern Washington and Montana make the journey to the heart of Canyon Country later this season. The Thunderbirds can salvage some respect this season by knocking of either the Eagles or the Grizzlies.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 5-7
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Eastern Washington
Montana
Toss Up
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
That is all for this week.
The Cougars were shell shocked by Utah State in Provo on Friday night. However, most of the damage was done in the final four minutes of the first half when the Aggies turned a 7-14 deficit into a 28-14 lead. Outside of that 21-0 stretch, the Cougars outscored the Aggies 20-14. It still would have been a close game if it weren't for that 4-minute lapse. It is possible that if Taysom Hill had played in the 2nd half, where the Cougar defense adjusted and figured things out, that BYU could have won. But things did not turn out that way.
For both Cougar and Aggie fans, don't take too much stock into what happened in Provo on Friday. It is a rivalry game and I believe there was extra motivation for Utah State. It's not all that bad for BYU and not all that good for Utah State, but I will address the Aggies and their situation, later.
We will find out about how good of a coach and recruiter Bronco Mendenhall and his assistants are very soon. How soon the offense adjusts to way that Christian Stewart plays and how soon the defense corrects its problems. I would not be surprised if Defensive Coordinator Nick Howell is relieved of his coordinator duties or his play-calling duties or finds himself looking for a job after Monday, but his salvation may be that this is a short week.
If BYU quickly corrects their problems, they can finish the season 11-1 and be on track for a be reward next season when Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan are on the schedule. There really wasn't much of a chance for the Cougars this year to get into the playoffs, even if one of the New Years 6 bowls was in play. If they entertain UNLV still looking for win #5, and then they fail, then Coach Mendenhall should be on the hot seat. I will address that more in the weeks to come, but I will say a lot of the failures this season can be traced straight to the top.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 6-6
Probable Losses
Central Florida
Boise State
California
Probable Wins
UNLV
Savanah State
Toss Up
Nevada
Middle Tennessee
Utah Utes (4-1)
Yes, Utah did hang on to beat UCLA, who was previously ranked #8. However, it may have been more the Bruins looking past the Utes more than any other factor. Yes, the team and coach said, "We are taking Utah seriously." But UCLA didn't play like it in the first half
Yes, the Utes deserve credit. There were a lot of positives to build on. Especially the poised they showed on the last drive. Once UCLA took a 28-27 lead, there was a lot of moxie shown to drive the field for the game-winning field goal. No one would have docked the effort grade if they would have had a 3-and-out on the following drive.
The Utes will still need to play the rest of the season as the underdog in order to make a bowl game, but they are most of the way they. They will need to win at least one more game that they are not expected to, as they are only favored to beat the Colorado Buffaloes from this point forward. But I will give them more credit than that. The Utes are better than expected this season, and I expect that they will continue to prove that.
Predicted Outcome
Best Case 8-4
Worst Case 5-7
Probable Wins
Oregon State
Colorado
Probable Losses
Arizona State
Arizona
Stanford
Toss Up
USC
Oregon
Utah State Aggies (3-2)
The first thing that the Aggie coaches must prepare for in the coming weeks is the "We Beat BYU" hangover. The rest of the season is not going to be like the 2nd quarter was in Provo. I'm sure the coaches know that, and I'm positive that many on the team realize that. Getting back to reality will be hard and hopefully it will not cost them a game. Their next game is a home game against Air Force, who is certainly capable of coming out of Logan on top. I suspect that the Aggies have the full attention of their opponents the rest of the way, because all of them have a similar history almost the same disdain for BYU that folks in Logan have. While the Aggies probably won't see the same team and the same flow that they had in Provo, they are certainly capable of winning the rest of their games. But their secret is out, and their opponents will be ready.
So, they beat BYU and yet I predict that the finish will be worse? Again, let's see how they respond in Logan on Saturday vs. the Falcons. But, except for TCU, most of the MWC teams that left Provo with a victory usually lost after beating the Cougars.
Projected finish
Best Case 9-3
Worst Case 7-5
Projected wins
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Toss Up
Air Force
Colorado State
Projected Loss
Boise State
Weber State 0-5
The Wildcats have had a lot to work on during the bye week. I have not changed my opinion of them. One note is that Idaho State has moved way up the Sagarin rankings relative to the rest of the conference. I will not, however, believe that Idaho State is any different than years before until they win another game.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
Southern Utah (1-5)
The offense is now moving the ball, but the defense is not what fans in Cedar City are used to. That is one reason the Thunderbirds lost at Cal Poly on Saturday. It was a heart-breaker for them, as they had a 3-point lead at the end of the third quarter, only to surrender two quick touchdowns. Of the four drives in the 4th quarter, one would end in a missed and another quickly ended in the interception. The last time SUU had the ball, they scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion. They kicked the ball deep as there was still over 3 minutes on the clock, but Cal Poly was able to drive 61 yards and run the clock out.
That past few season, a trip to Cedar City has been problemsome for the leaders of the Big Sky Conference. Eastern Washington and Montana make the journey to the heart of Canyon Country later this season. The Thunderbirds can salvage some respect this season by knocking of either the Eagles or the Grizzlies.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 5-7
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Eastern Washington
Montana
Toss Up
Sacramento State
Northern Arizona
That is all for this week.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
As September Draws to a Close.
It has been an amazing an unpredictable college football season so far. Here is my impression of where the state's teams will finish.
Utah Utes (3-1)
In looking back on Utah's season, normally you would be impressed if your team has wins over Fresno State and Michigan. However, both the Bulldogs and the Wolverines are having sub-par seasons in 2014 and after 5 weeks and those wins don't look so impressive right now. Saying this, I had Utah at least beating Washington State, Arizona and Colorado to get into the post-season this year. Now, after the Washington State loss, I am not so sure that will happen.
But don't give up on the Utes just yet. Someone is going to look past the Utes, just like Stanford did last year. I don't know who that will be, but someone will. For the record, Utah's defense is great. Their Special Teams are Special. But the offense needs work.
Predicted finish:
worst case: 5-7
best case: 7-5
Probable wins...
Arizona
Colorado
Probable losses
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Stanford
Toss-up
Oregon State
Arizona State
MVP So Far: PR Kaelin Clay
BYU Cougars
A Deseret News article states that the unbeaten Cougars are on Red Alert. That may not be a good thing. You know what happens when a team plays not to lose? Usually they don't win. Yes, there are some mistakes that BYU needs to clean up, especially on defense. Utah State or Boise State or Nevada or Central Florida or California could do what Virginia and Houston could not finish.
There is no reason why BYU can't finish the season undefeated. The real question is whether or not an unbeaten season will impress the playoff committee. BYU's offense is performing as predicted. Taysom Hill is not a great throwing quarterback, but can punish defenses with his arm when it is necessary. And if it wasn't for special teams play, Virginia would have won. They will need that going forward.
Predicted Finsish
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 10-2
Probable Wins:
Utah State
Central Florida
Nevada
Boise State
Middle Tennessee
UNLV
Savannah State
Toss Up:
California
MVP So Far: QB Taysom Hill
Utah State Aggies (2-2)
I am not one to be down on the Aggies after the loss to Arkansas State. When one progresses forward, there are bound to be steps backward from time to time. Certainly, the Aggies need a healthy Chuckie Keeton to win the MW, but they are still in the race.
The Vigil Brothers anchor a solid defense, and USU should give some teams, especially running team, some headaches before the year is over.
Predicted Finsish
Worst Case: 8-4
Best Case: 9-3
Probable Wins
Air Force
UNLV
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Boise State
Probable Losses
BYU
Toss Up
Colorado State
MVP So Far: LBs Nick and Zach Vigil
Weber State Wildcats (0-5)
They say that Rome wasn't built in a day. Even if a team seems like they have improved, there may be similar results at the end of the season. There are winnable games on the Wildcats schedule. They may not be until the end of the season. It will take some patience to get there. However, if they take care of the ball, we may see positive results sooner rather than later.
As a positive, Bill Green is looking like a good choice for Weber State at quarterback. Sooner or later, it will pay off. If they continue to improve, 2015 may see WSU return to their winning ways.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
MVP So Far: WR Shaydon Kehano
Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-4)
People were predicting another big season when Gary Crowton came to Cedar City to run the offense. But it could have been a move of a desperate man trying to resurrect his career. Last season wasn't about how awesome the offense was. They were a punt and play defense team. And if their result isn't as good in 2014, it is because they have gotten away from that mantra. They held Nevada to 28 points. That kind of defense will help them win more than 3 Big Sky games this year.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Sacramento State
MVP So Far: QB Ammon Olsen
Power Rankings
Pac-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. USC
5. Washington
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Arizona
9. Washington State
10. Utah
11. California
12. Colorado
MVP So Far: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
FBS Independent
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
MVP So Far: BYU QB Taysom Hill
MWC
1. Colorado State
2. Nevada
3. Utah State
4. Boise State
5. San Diego State
6. Air Force
7. Wyoming
8. Fresno State
9. San Jose State
10. Hawaii
11. New Mexico
12. UNLV
MVP So Far: Colorado State QB Garrett Grayson
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Northern Arizona
6. Davis
7. Portland State
8. Sacramento State
9. Southern Utah
10. Idaho State
11. Weber State
12. North Dakota
13. Northern Colorado
MPV So Far: Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
Utah Utes (3-1)
In looking back on Utah's season, normally you would be impressed if your team has wins over Fresno State and Michigan. However, both the Bulldogs and the Wolverines are having sub-par seasons in 2014 and after 5 weeks and those wins don't look so impressive right now. Saying this, I had Utah at least beating Washington State, Arizona and Colorado to get into the post-season this year. Now, after the Washington State loss, I am not so sure that will happen.
But don't give up on the Utes just yet. Someone is going to look past the Utes, just like Stanford did last year. I don't know who that will be, but someone will. For the record, Utah's defense is great. Their Special Teams are Special. But the offense needs work.
Predicted finish:
worst case: 5-7
best case: 7-5
Probable wins...
Arizona
Colorado
Probable losses
UCLA
USC
Oregon
Stanford
Toss-up
Oregon State
Arizona State
MVP So Far: PR Kaelin Clay
BYU Cougars
A Deseret News article states that the unbeaten Cougars are on Red Alert. That may not be a good thing. You know what happens when a team plays not to lose? Usually they don't win. Yes, there are some mistakes that BYU needs to clean up, especially on defense. Utah State or Boise State or Nevada or Central Florida or California could do what Virginia and Houston could not finish.
There is no reason why BYU can't finish the season undefeated. The real question is whether or not an unbeaten season will impress the playoff committee. BYU's offense is performing as predicted. Taysom Hill is not a great throwing quarterback, but can punish defenses with his arm when it is necessary. And if it wasn't for special teams play, Virginia would have won. They will need that going forward.
Predicted Finsish
Best Case: 12-0
Worst Case: 10-2
Probable Wins:
Utah State
Central Florida
Nevada
Boise State
Middle Tennessee
UNLV
Savannah State
Toss Up:
California
MVP So Far: QB Taysom Hill
Utah State Aggies (2-2)
I am not one to be down on the Aggies after the loss to Arkansas State. When one progresses forward, there are bound to be steps backward from time to time. Certainly, the Aggies need a healthy Chuckie Keeton to win the MW, but they are still in the race.
The Vigil Brothers anchor a solid defense, and USU should give some teams, especially running team, some headaches before the year is over.
Predicted Finsish
Worst Case: 8-4
Best Case: 9-3
Probable Wins
Air Force
UNLV
Hawaii
Wyoming
New Mexico
San Jose State
Boise State
Probable Losses
BYU
Toss Up
Colorado State
MVP So Far: LBs Nick and Zach Vigil
Weber State Wildcats (0-5)
They say that Rome wasn't built in a day. Even if a team seems like they have improved, there may be similar results at the end of the season. There are winnable games on the Wildcats schedule. They may not be until the end of the season. It will take some patience to get there. However, if they take care of the ball, we may see positive results sooner rather than later.
As a positive, Bill Green is looking like a good choice for Weber State at quarterback. Sooner or later, it will pay off. If they continue to improve, 2015 may see WSU return to their winning ways.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
North Dakota
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana State
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Portland State
MVP So Far: WR Shaydon Kehano
Southern Utah Thunderbirds (1-4)
People were predicting another big season when Gary Crowton came to Cedar City to run the offense. But it could have been a move of a desperate man trying to resurrect his career. Last season wasn't about how awesome the offense was. They were a punt and play defense team. And if their result isn't as good in 2014, it is because they have gotten away from that mantra. They held Nevada to 28 points. That kind of defense will help them win more than 3 Big Sky games this year.
Predicted Finish
Best Case 4-8
Worst Case 3-9
Probable Wins
Idaho State
North Dakota
Probable Losses
Cal Poly
Montana
Northern Arizona
Toss Up
Sacramento State
MVP So Far: QB Ammon Olsen
Power Rankings
Pac-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. USC
5. Washington
6. Arizona State
7. Oregon State
8. Arizona
9. Washington State
10. Utah
11. California
12. Colorado
MVP So Far: Oregon QB Marcus Mariota
FBS Independent
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
MVP So Far: BYU QB Taysom Hill
MWC
1. Colorado State
2. Nevada
3. Utah State
4. Boise State
5. San Diego State
6. Air Force
7. Wyoming
8. Fresno State
9. San Jose State
10. Hawaii
11. New Mexico
12. UNLV
MVP So Far: Colorado State QB Garrett Grayson
Big Sky
1. Eastern Washington
2. Montana
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Northern Arizona
6. Davis
7. Portland State
8. Sacramento State
9. Southern Utah
10. Idaho State
11. Weber State
12. North Dakota
13. Northern Colorado
MPV So Far: Eastern Washington QB Vernon Adams
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Explanation for the lack of posts.
On August 12, 2014, I was involved in a serious accident. I wasn't seriously injured, but I was injured and my recovery has taken longer and become more complicated than I imagined it would be. I have also been assisting in the care of my mother who recently had a serious stroke. Life has gotten in the way of this blog.
But here are my impressions on how the college football season has gone so far for our Utah teams.
BYU has been impressive on offense and defense. The last year they started this well in both scoring points and defense was 1977. However, that all ended when Gifford Nielsen suffered a season-ending injury at Oregon State. I'm not going to call BYU's season this year a special one, yet. Let's see if they are still unbeaten after the Central Florida game.
My prediction: 10-2 and not quite in a big bowl game.
Utah is better on offense this year...but defense? The defense looked better for most of the Fresno State game. But the Bulldogs did score 20 points after the game was out of reach. However, those points were scored against the scrubs. Fresno is rebuilding this year, and was probably not best test for the Utes. Idaho State's Xavier Finney ran for 133 yards. Something that should have never happened. Michigan will provide a healthy test for Utah on both sides of the ball. Win or lose, we will learn a lot about the Utes next week. If Utah played California instead of Oregon, I would be confident that they would be in a bowl game this year.
My prediction: 5-7
Utah State was embarrassed at Tennessee. There is no panic in Logan, just yet. Tennessee is not exactly what they were when Payton Manning played there. But they were good enough to win the way they did against USU. The Aggies have to improve if they are to win the Mountain Division. Right now, Boise State looks like a loss. Colorado State, who is improved, could beat them as that game is in Fort Collins. That would still put them in a bowl game, but not one they would like to go to.
My prediction: 9-4 and the Armed Forces Bowl
Weber State looks improved. They were blown out by Arizona State, which should surprise no one. They came close, for 3 quarters, to upsetting North Dakota State. They have a winnable game this week against Sacramento State. Hopefully the first win of the Jay Hill era.
My prediction: 4-8
Southern Utah looks lost so far this season. But they can get back on track when they come home to face South Dakota State. It is a must-win game for the Thunderbirds because you don't want to host Weber State looking for your first win of the season. Especially if the Wildcats have already have their first W under their belt.
My prediction: 4-8
For this week, I expect BYU will pull out a close victory against Houston. Utah State will win a nail biter against Wake Forest. Southern Utah will lose to South Dakota State. And Weber State will get a W against Sacramento State.
Power Rankings
FBS Independents
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. USC
5. Arizona State
6. Washington
7. Arizona
8. Utah
9. Oregon State
10. California
11. Colorado
12. Washington State
Mountain West
1. San Diego State
2. Boise State
3. Utah State
4. Colorado State
5. Fresno State
6. San Jose State
7. Nevada
8. UNLV
9. Wyoming
10. Air Force
11. Hawaii
12. New Mexico
Great Big Super Huge Sky.
1. Montana
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Northern Arizona
6. Portland State
7. Sacramento State
8. Southern Utah
9. UC Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. Weber State
12. North Dakota
13. Idaho State
But here are my impressions on how the college football season has gone so far for our Utah teams.
BYU has been impressive on offense and defense. The last year they started this well in both scoring points and defense was 1977. However, that all ended when Gifford Nielsen suffered a season-ending injury at Oregon State. I'm not going to call BYU's season this year a special one, yet. Let's see if they are still unbeaten after the Central Florida game.
My prediction: 10-2 and not quite in a big bowl game.
Utah is better on offense this year...but defense? The defense looked better for most of the Fresno State game. But the Bulldogs did score 20 points after the game was out of reach. However, those points were scored against the scrubs. Fresno is rebuilding this year, and was probably not best test for the Utes. Idaho State's Xavier Finney ran for 133 yards. Something that should have never happened. Michigan will provide a healthy test for Utah on both sides of the ball. Win or lose, we will learn a lot about the Utes next week. If Utah played California instead of Oregon, I would be confident that they would be in a bowl game this year.
My prediction: 5-7
Utah State was embarrassed at Tennessee. There is no panic in Logan, just yet. Tennessee is not exactly what they were when Payton Manning played there. But they were good enough to win the way they did against USU. The Aggies have to improve if they are to win the Mountain Division. Right now, Boise State looks like a loss. Colorado State, who is improved, could beat them as that game is in Fort Collins. That would still put them in a bowl game, but not one they would like to go to.
My prediction: 9-4 and the Armed Forces Bowl
Weber State looks improved. They were blown out by Arizona State, which should surprise no one. They came close, for 3 quarters, to upsetting North Dakota State. They have a winnable game this week against Sacramento State. Hopefully the first win of the Jay Hill era.
My prediction: 4-8
Southern Utah looks lost so far this season. But they can get back on track when they come home to face South Dakota State. It is a must-win game for the Thunderbirds because you don't want to host Weber State looking for your first win of the season. Especially if the Wildcats have already have their first W under their belt.
My prediction: 4-8
For this week, I expect BYU will pull out a close victory against Houston. Utah State will win a nail biter against Wake Forest. Southern Utah will lose to South Dakota State. And Weber State will get a W against Sacramento State.
Power Rankings
FBS Independents
1. Notre Dame
2. BYU
3. Navy
4. Army
PAC-12
1. Oregon
2. Stanford
3. UCLA
4. USC
5. Arizona State
6. Washington
7. Arizona
8. Utah
9. Oregon State
10. California
11. Colorado
12. Washington State
Mountain West
1. San Diego State
2. Boise State
3. Utah State
4. Colorado State
5. Fresno State
6. San Jose State
7. Nevada
8. UNLV
9. Wyoming
10. Air Force
11. Hawaii
12. New Mexico
Great Big Super Huge Sky.
1. Montana
2. Eastern Washington
3. Montana State
4. Cal Poly
5. Northern Arizona
6. Portland State
7. Sacramento State
8. Southern Utah
9. UC Davis
10. Northern Colorado
11. Weber State
12. North Dakota
13. Idaho State
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Labor Day Weekend '14 Preview
Weber State at Arizona State
Idaho State at Utah
My feelings are the same for both these games are the same. When a good FCS team plays an average Mountain West team, the FCS team has succeeded if the other team is still playing starters in the 2nd half. But these games feature 2 lower-tier Big Sky schools against 2 PAC-12 teams. If the PAC-12 stars are still wearing helmets in the 2nd quarter, it's a big time moral victory.
My prediction
Arizona State 70 Weber State 3
Utah 49 Idaho State 0
BYU at Connecticut
The Huskies are a big unknown. BYU often has trouble opening on the road against a team they 'should' beat. Nothing is a given, however, and that includes the Cougars in game 1. They could go back east and come home with an easy victory. They could be looking ahead to next week's match-up against Texas. It's hard to guess. But my gut feeling is that this will be a closer than they want it to be win for the Cougars.
BYU 28 UConn 17
Southern Utah at Nevada
For now, the Wolfpack have their best days behind them. They have some good weapons, but no consistency. SUU is not favored in this one, and they are debuting a new offense and a new quarterback. But it could be close.
Nevada 35 SUU 21
Utah State at Tennessee
There are many predicting the Aggies to win this one. Remember that this is still SEC country and that a big crowd will be pulling for the Volunteers. USU will need to score early and often to get the crowd out of the game. A couple of Tennessee turnovers might be nice.
Tennessee 24 Utah State 21
Idaho State at Utah
My feelings are the same for both these games are the same. When a good FCS team plays an average Mountain West team, the FCS team has succeeded if the other team is still playing starters in the 2nd half. But these games feature 2 lower-tier Big Sky schools against 2 PAC-12 teams. If the PAC-12 stars are still wearing helmets in the 2nd quarter, it's a big time moral victory.
My prediction
Arizona State 70 Weber State 3
Utah 49 Idaho State 0
BYU at Connecticut
The Huskies are a big unknown. BYU often has trouble opening on the road against a team they 'should' beat. Nothing is a given, however, and that includes the Cougars in game 1. They could go back east and come home with an easy victory. They could be looking ahead to next week's match-up against Texas. It's hard to guess. But my gut feeling is that this will be a closer than they want it to be win for the Cougars.
BYU 28 UConn 17
Southern Utah at Nevada
For now, the Wolfpack have their best days behind them. They have some good weapons, but no consistency. SUU is not favored in this one, and they are debuting a new offense and a new quarterback. But it could be close.
Nevada 35 SUU 21
Utah State at Tennessee
There are many predicting the Aggies to win this one. Remember that this is still SEC country and that a big crowd will be pulling for the Volunteers. USU will need to score early and often to get the crowd out of the game. A couple of Tennessee turnovers might be nice.
Tennessee 24 Utah State 21
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Utah 2014 Preview
What are your honest expectations of the Utah team in 2014? Most people expect the Utes to get to a bowl game. I hope that is more of a hope than an expectation. But let's examine the schedule. The Utes should beat Idaho State and Fresno State at home. They should also beat Washington State at home and Colorado on the road. In order for Utah to go to a bowl game in 2014, the Utes will have to win games that they are not expected to win.
Yes, they beat Stanford at home last year. But if they had also beaten Washington State on the road, a game that they should have won, they would have gone bowling. In addition to winning games that no one expects them to win, they should also win the games that they are supposed to win.
Utah may end up with the toughest schedule in the country in 2014. But if they do not win at least 6 games, they will be searching for a new coach in 2015? Maybe. Kyle Whittingham is the same guy who led the team to an undefeated 2008. That will probably not go noticed. This is a what have you done for me lately world. And what has Coach Whit done lately?
But going back to 2008. You looked at the schedule and thought that Utah was probably going to finish the regular season 9-3. They were taking on Michigan in the Big House. They had TCU and they had Max Hall and the same Cougars who beat them the two seasons prior. Not only did Utah win these three games, but also surprised Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. All that Utah needs to do in 2014 is find 2 more games they can win.
Yes, they beat Stanford at home last year. But if they had also beaten Washington State on the road, a game that they should have won, they would have gone bowling. In addition to winning games that no one expects them to win, they should also win the games that they are supposed to win.
Utah may end up with the toughest schedule in the country in 2014. But if they do not win at least 6 games, they will be searching for a new coach in 2015? Maybe. Kyle Whittingham is the same guy who led the team to an undefeated 2008. That will probably not go noticed. This is a what have you done for me lately world. And what has Coach Whit done lately?
But going back to 2008. You looked at the schedule and thought that Utah was probably going to finish the regular season 9-3. They were taking on Michigan in the Big House. They had TCU and they had Max Hall and the same Cougars who beat them the two seasons prior. Not only did Utah win these three games, but also surprised Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. All that Utah needs to do in 2014 is find 2 more games they can win.
| Thursday Aug. 28 |
 |
Idaho State Bengals Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
8:30 p.m. MT Pac-12 Networks |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 6 |
 |
Fresno State Bulldogs Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
1:00 p.m. MT Pac-12 Networks |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 13 |
--- | Open Date | --- | --- |
| Saturday Sept. 20 |
 |
at Michigan Wolverines Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 27 |
 |
Washington State Cougars (HC) Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 4 |
 |
at UCLA Bruins Rose Bowl, Los Angeles, CA |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 11 |
--- | Open Date | --- | --- |
| Thursday Oct. 16 |
 |
at Oregon State Beavers Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR |
8:00 p.m. MT FOX Sports 1 |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 25 |
 |
USC Trojans Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 1 |
 |
at Arizona State Sun Devils Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 8 |
 |
Oregon Ducks Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 15 |
 |
at Stanford Cardinal Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 22 |
 |
Arizona Wildcats Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 29 |
 |
at Colorado Buffaloes Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
TBA | Buy Tickets |
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Utah State Football 2014 Preview
Every day, I drive by a billboard in Layton on my way home from work, that says "The Climb Continues." Let's enjoy the view, then, shall we!
First, and foremost, Chukie Keeton returns from injury for his senior season. He has good company in the backfield and targets to throw to...well, those that aren't in trouble with the law. However, USU doesn't have a lot of starters from last year's team, unless you count those that filled in for injured players. The Aggies should be fine, and I am not the only one who wonders why Boise State was picked to finish first in the MW Mountain division. Perhaps reputation still means something. USU will have the chance to change that perception on November 29 on the Blue Turf.
So folks, go buy some tickets and see the Aggies.
Likely Wins
Idaho State, Wake Forest, Arkansas State, BYU, Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Jose State, Boise State
Likely Loss
Tennessee
Best Case Scenario
12-0
Most Likely Scenario
11-1
Worst Case Scenario
7-5
First, and foremost, Chukie Keeton returns from injury for his senior season. He has good company in the backfield and targets to throw to...well, those that aren't in trouble with the law. However, USU doesn't have a lot of starters from last year's team, unless you count those that filled in for injured players. The Aggies should be fine, and I am not the only one who wonders why Boise State was picked to finish first in the MW Mountain division. Perhaps reputation still means something. USU will have the chance to change that perception on November 29 on the Blue Turf.
So folks, go buy some tickets and see the Aggies.
| Sunday Aug. 31 |
 |
at Tennessee Volunteers Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
5:00 p.m. MT SEC Network |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 6 |
|
Idaho State Bengals Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
6:00 p.m. MT MWN |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 13 |
 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
5:00 p.m. MT CBSSN |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Sept. 20 |
 |
at Arkansas State Red Wolves Centennial Bank Stadium, Jonesboro, AR |
TBA | --- |
| Saturday Sept. 27 |
--- | Open Date | TBA | --- |
| Friday Oct. 3 |
 |
at BYU Cougars LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
8:15 p.m. MT ESPN |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 11 |
 |
Air Force Falcons Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
Time TBA ESPN Network TBA |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 18 |
 |
at Colorado State Rams Hughes Stadium, Ft. Collins, CO |
5:00 p.m. MT CBSSN |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Oct. 25 |
 |
UNLV Rebels Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
Time TBA ESPN Network TBA |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 1 |
 |
at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, HI |
9:00 p.m. MT TV TBA |
Buy Tickets |
| Friday Nov. 7 |
 |
at Wyoming Cowboys War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, WY |
6:00 p.m. MT ESPN2 |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 15 |
 |
New Mexico Lobos Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
Time TBA ESPN Network TBA |
Buy Tickets |
| Friday Nov. 21 |
 |
San Jose State Spartans Romney Stadium, Logan, UT |
7:30 p.m. MT ESPN2 |
Buy Tickets |
| Saturday Nov. 29 |
 |
at Boise State Broncos Albertson's Stadium, Boise, ID |
Time TBA ESPN Network TBA |
Buy Tickets |
Likely Wins
Idaho State, Wake Forest, Arkansas State, BYU, Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, Hawaii, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Jose State, Boise State
Likely Loss
Tennessee
Best Case Scenario
12-0
Most Likely Scenario
11-1
Worst Case Scenario
7-5
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Weber State Football 2014 Preview
Weber State begins the 2014 season with a 4 different head coach in the 2010's. That lack of stability has taken its toll on the team. It hard to fathom, but worth saying again. This year's Wildcat seniors are playing for their 4th different head coach. And, it is also hard to fathom, but the new regime on has one assist coach who was on the sidelines in 2010: Tight End Coach Colton Swan. Everyone else on the WSU sideline is new to the program.
Weber State was picked to be in the bottom 4 of the conference by both the press and the media. That is the kind of respect that has been lost for this program. Of all of the talent on the team, only DB Deon'Tea Florence was given all-conference honors.
It is interesting that a defensive player was given this honor. Last season, the defense was dismal. They gave up more than 30 points in 10 of the 12 games they played. To end this futility, new head coach Jay Hill brought in Justin Ena from Southern Utah to coordinate the defense. He also hired away Ed Lamb's other coordinator Steve Clark. Last Season, WSU scored more than 20 points on 4 occasions. The offense played well enough, possibly, to only earn another potential win. Both sides of the ball need improving if WSU is going to win more than 2 games in 2014.
The schedule looks like a team that doesn't expect much this season. There are only 5 home games, with just one in September. Which means that 4 of the first 5 are on the road. The lone home games is against MVFC power North Dakota State. Not the way to build confidence in a struggling team. It is not likely, that WSU will win a game before Veteran's Day.
With the state of college football today, if Jay Hill doesn't turn around the Wildcats, he may be the last football coach in WSU history.
2014 Schedule:
* Conference Games
(Courtesy: WeberStateSports.com)
Best Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Finish: 2-10.
Worst Case Scenario: 0-12
Weber State was picked to be in the bottom 4 of the conference by both the press and the media. That is the kind of respect that has been lost for this program. Of all of the talent on the team, only DB Deon'Tea Florence was given all-conference honors.
It is interesting that a defensive player was given this honor. Last season, the defense was dismal. They gave up more than 30 points in 10 of the 12 games they played. To end this futility, new head coach Jay Hill brought in Justin Ena from Southern Utah to coordinate the defense. He also hired away Ed Lamb's other coordinator Steve Clark. Last Season, WSU scored more than 20 points on 4 occasions. The offense played well enough, possibly, to only earn another potential win. Both sides of the ball need improving if WSU is going to win more than 2 games in 2014.
The schedule looks like a team that doesn't expect much this season. There are only 5 home games, with just one in September. Which means that 4 of the first 5 are on the road. The lone home games is against MVFC power North Dakota State. Not the way to build confidence in a struggling team. It is not likely, that WSU will win a game before Veteran's Day.
With the state of college football today, if Jay Hill doesn't turn around the Wildcats, he may be the last football coach in WSU history.
2014 Schedule:
| Date | Opponent | Location | Time (MST) | Results | Media |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Aug 28 | at Arizona State | Tempe, AZ | 8:30 p.m. |
|
Pac-12 Network
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Sep 06 | North Dakota State | Ogden | 6:00 p.m. |
|
Altitude TV
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Sep 13 | at Sacramento State | Sacramento, CA | 7:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Sep 20 | at Stephen F. Austin | Nacogdoches, TX | 5:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Sep 27 | at Southern Utah * | Cedar City, UT | 6:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Oct 11 | Cal Poly * | Ogden, UT | 1:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Oct 18 | at Montana State * | Bozeman, MT | 3:30 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Oct 25 | Portland State * | Ogden, UT | 1:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Nov 01 | Northern Arizona * | Ogden, UT | 1:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Nov 08 | at North Dakota * | Grand Forks, ND | 11:00 a.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Nov 15 | Northern Colorado * | Ogden, UT | 1:00 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
| Sat, Nov 22 | at Idaho State * | Pocatello, ID | 2:30 p.m. |
|
KLO 1430 AM
|
(Courtesy: WeberStateSports.com)
Best Case Scenario: 5-7
Projected Finish: 2-10.
Worst Case Scenario: 0-12
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Southern Utah 2014 Preview
There were some changes on the SUU staff this off-season. There was a lot of hubub about former BYU head coach Gary Crowton landing in Cedar City and former BYU backup Ammon Olsen transferring for his senior season. This was after Justin Ena and Steve Clark left Cedar City for Weber State and Ogden.
For those of you looking to make a big deal of Crowton's coming remember there must be a reason why the former top assistant at LSU is now at SUU. This is not the career path most good coaches make. The reason is that he has found little success in his jobs since leaving Baton Rouge. As for Olsen, well, he was just looking for the playing time he wasn't going to get backing up Taysom Hill.
Changes needed to be made in Cedar City, in spite of recent successes, especially on offense. There were many reason why SUU made the FCS playoffs for the first time ever in 2013, but the play of Quarterback Aaron Kantu and the rest of the Thunderbird offense were not among them. The only thing the offense did well was not turn the ball over. Usually, the defense and the special teams gave the offense good field position. The offense usually didn't have to be spectacular. When the offense had to be spectacular, they failed. Hence, the first post-season romp ended ignominiously last year.
But who needs offense when you can win games on special teams and defense? Can Demario Warren replace Justin Ena as the defense coordinator? That is the real question in Cedar City this season.
To return to the post-season in 2014, the Thunderbirds will need to pull off an upset in one of the four games where they will not be favored; either one of the FBS road games against Nevada or Fresno State or conference games against Cal Poly or Eastern Washington. They will also need to win the games that they should win. If they can do that, they will repeat last year's success.
Schedule:
August 30 @ Nevada
September 6 @ Southeastern Louisiana
September 13 South Dakota State (HC)
September 20 @ Fresno State
September 27 Weber State
October 4 @ Cal Poly
October 11 Eastern Washington
October 18 @ Idaho State
October 25 North Dakota
November 8 @ Sacramento State
November 15 Montana
November 22 @ Northern Arizona
Worst-Case Scenario 4-8
Best-Case Scenario 9-3
Most Likely Scenario 8-4
(Likely Wins: S.E. Louisiana, South Dakota State, Weber State, Idaho State, North Dakota, Sacramento State, Montana and Northern Arizona. Likely Losses: Nevada, Fresno State, Cal Poly and Eastern Washington.)
Most intriguing game of 2014. September 27 vs. former assistants Ena and Clark and Weber State.
For those of you looking to make a big deal of Crowton's coming remember there must be a reason why the former top assistant at LSU is now at SUU. This is not the career path most good coaches make. The reason is that he has found little success in his jobs since leaving Baton Rouge. As for Olsen, well, he was just looking for the playing time he wasn't going to get backing up Taysom Hill.
Changes needed to be made in Cedar City, in spite of recent successes, especially on offense. There were many reason why SUU made the FCS playoffs for the first time ever in 2013, but the play of Quarterback Aaron Kantu and the rest of the Thunderbird offense were not among them. The only thing the offense did well was not turn the ball over. Usually, the defense and the special teams gave the offense good field position. The offense usually didn't have to be spectacular. When the offense had to be spectacular, they failed. Hence, the first post-season romp ended ignominiously last year.
But who needs offense when you can win games on special teams and defense? Can Demario Warren replace Justin Ena as the defense coordinator? That is the real question in Cedar City this season.
To return to the post-season in 2014, the Thunderbirds will need to pull off an upset in one of the four games where they will not be favored; either one of the FBS road games against Nevada or Fresno State or conference games against Cal Poly or Eastern Washington. They will also need to win the games that they should win. If they can do that, they will repeat last year's success.
Schedule:
August 30 @ Nevada
September 6 @ Southeastern Louisiana
September 13 South Dakota State (HC)
September 20 @ Fresno State
September 27 Weber State
October 4 @ Cal Poly
October 11 Eastern Washington
October 18 @ Idaho State
October 25 North Dakota
November 8 @ Sacramento State
November 15 Montana
November 22 @ Northern Arizona
Worst-Case Scenario 4-8
Best-Case Scenario 9-3
Most Likely Scenario 8-4
(Likely Wins: S.E. Louisiana, South Dakota State, Weber State, Idaho State, North Dakota, Sacramento State, Montana and Northern Arizona. Likely Losses: Nevada, Fresno State, Cal Poly and Eastern Washington.)
Most intriguing game of 2014. September 27 vs. former assistants Ena and Clark and Weber State.
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
The future of the MWC/Big Sky Conferences
The future of the Big Sky Conference as I see it today, July 14, 2014
To quote a famous guru from a popular movie series, 'always in motion, the future is." Indeed it is difficult to see. But how have things changed in the past few years. One of the reasons the Big Sky Conference super-charged to 13 teams was the threat of teams moving up to the FBS. I think that I am comfortable now crossing that threat off the list.
As the gap grows between the Power 5 conferences and the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the gap between those other conferences in the FBS and the Football Championship Subdivision will shrink. This is already evident as we saw how Southern Utah handled South Alabama last season. We will see such victories by the Big Sky Conference football teams becoming more common in the future. But victories against PAC-12 teams, those will begin to be even more rare than they are today.
Will the Big Sky Conference as a whole every catch up with the Mountain West Conference? I doubt that. Boise State will always be Boise State, Fresno State will always be Fresno State. But don't be surprised to see teams like Wyoming and New Mexico being regularly schooled by the likes of Northern Arizona. If say, Eastern Washington comes to Boise and upsets the Broncos on the blue turf, that game will become a rallying cry for the Broncos for the next several seasons.
The biggest threat to the Big Sky Conference is the WAC, but not in the way it was a few years ago. It's the WAC without football, as in Big Sky schools dropping football. In recent years; Weber State and Northern Arizona have had to fight to keep football. There may be schools follow-through on threats to drop football and join the new WAC. Especially as costs rise, even at the FCS level, schools will decide that dropping out is better than keeping up.
Another possible "threat" or "Opportunity" for the Big Sky is the resurrection of Big West Football, which is likely to be at the FCS level, if it happens.
As for the MWC, there are times of both opportunity and threat. Odds are that there will never be a chance for the MWC to become a power conference. Also, odds are that if you are not currently a member of a power conference, there will not be the chance to join. From what I have read, the power conferences are in no mood to add anyone, including BYU, Boise State or Fresno State. It appears that they are trying to get smaller, not larger.
This could be an opportunity for the MWC, which could become a real power conference in basketball. But that is all speculation right now. But for teams in the West who are not able to keep up with the spending of the rest of the power conferences, the MWC may end up a good landing place.
In 20 years, and this is my speculation, both the MWC and the Big Sky Conferences could look much different than they do today.
2035 Possible MWC
Air Force
Boise State
Fresno State
Iowa State
Kansas State
Nevada
New Mexico
Montana
UNLV
UTEP
San Diego State
Utah State
Dropping Out to the FCS:
Colorado State
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Jose State
2035 Possible Big Sky
Eastern Washington
Central Washington
Colorado State
Dixie State
Idaho
Montana State
North Dakota
Southern Utah
Simon Frazer
Wyoming
Dropping Out (Dropping Football):
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Dropping to Division II:
Northern Colorado
2035 Resurrected Big West
Cal Poly
CS Northridge
Hawaii
UC Davis
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Jose State
San Diego University
To quote a famous guru from a popular movie series, 'always in motion, the future is." Indeed it is difficult to see. But how have things changed in the past few years. One of the reasons the Big Sky Conference super-charged to 13 teams was the threat of teams moving up to the FBS. I think that I am comfortable now crossing that threat off the list.
As the gap grows between the Power 5 conferences and the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision, the gap between those other conferences in the FBS and the Football Championship Subdivision will shrink. This is already evident as we saw how Southern Utah handled South Alabama last season. We will see such victories by the Big Sky Conference football teams becoming more common in the future. But victories against PAC-12 teams, those will begin to be even more rare than they are today.
Will the Big Sky Conference as a whole every catch up with the Mountain West Conference? I doubt that. Boise State will always be Boise State, Fresno State will always be Fresno State. But don't be surprised to see teams like Wyoming and New Mexico being regularly schooled by the likes of Northern Arizona. If say, Eastern Washington comes to Boise and upsets the Broncos on the blue turf, that game will become a rallying cry for the Broncos for the next several seasons.
The biggest threat to the Big Sky Conference is the WAC, but not in the way it was a few years ago. It's the WAC without football, as in Big Sky schools dropping football. In recent years; Weber State and Northern Arizona have had to fight to keep football. There may be schools follow-through on threats to drop football and join the new WAC. Especially as costs rise, even at the FCS level, schools will decide that dropping out is better than keeping up.
Another possible "threat" or "Opportunity" for the Big Sky is the resurrection of Big West Football, which is likely to be at the FCS level, if it happens.
As for the MWC, there are times of both opportunity and threat. Odds are that there will never be a chance for the MWC to become a power conference. Also, odds are that if you are not currently a member of a power conference, there will not be the chance to join. From what I have read, the power conferences are in no mood to add anyone, including BYU, Boise State or Fresno State. It appears that they are trying to get smaller, not larger.
This could be an opportunity for the MWC, which could become a real power conference in basketball. But that is all speculation right now. But for teams in the West who are not able to keep up with the spending of the rest of the power conferences, the MWC may end up a good landing place.
In 20 years, and this is my speculation, both the MWC and the Big Sky Conferences could look much different than they do today.
2035 Possible MWC
Air Force
Boise State
Fresno State
Iowa State
Kansas State
Nevada
New Mexico
Montana
UNLV
UTEP
San Diego State
Utah State
Dropping Out to the FCS:
Colorado State
Wyoming
Hawaii
San Jose State
2035 Possible Big Sky
Eastern Washington
Central Washington
Colorado State
Dixie State
Idaho
Montana State
North Dakota
Southern Utah
Simon Frazer
Wyoming
Dropping Out (Dropping Football):
Idaho State
Northern Arizona
Weber State
Dropping to Division II:
Northern Colorado
2035 Resurrected Big West
Cal Poly
CS Northridge
Hawaii
UC Davis
Portland State
Sacramento State
San Jose State
San Diego University
Friday, July 4, 2014
Vacation Over
My vacation from this blog is over now that the college football season is about to begin. There has not been a lot to write about. Except for BYU pursuing the Big 12, there hasn't been a lot of action on the conference realignment front. I'm also trying to steer clear of rumors, and it is always very difficult to separate the rumors from the facts.
This much I do know, the college playoff system that begins this season is a step closer to separating the Power 5 conferences from the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision. By the end of this decade, instead of the two college football subdivisions of Division I that exist now, there will be 3. It does not look like BYU, Boise State or Utah State will be in the top division. This is true no matter what their fans think.
Does this mean that BYU should give up on Independence and return to the Mountain West Conference? My answer is that it is too early to tell. There are several potential twists that could come, and probably many that will. And when it happens, we'll probably all say something idiotic like, "wow, I should have seen that coming!"
But there are some trends that could blow this all away. First and most important of all, is that that fewer kids are playing football. It is likely because of the injury danger, particularly the concussion factor, that parents are steering their kids into other sports. This means that the recruiting pool is shrinking. This is not good news for the schools at the bottom rung of college football.
But here is what the experts are saying.
First, there will not be 5 major conferences in the 2030, there will probably only be 4 with 16 to 20 teams in them. The conference that seems to be on the way out is the Big 12. My hunch is that the PAC-12 will become the PAC-16 with the addition of Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and one other lucky school. People want to say that that other school will be Texas Tech, but I don't see the PAC-12 welcoming a school in little 'ole Lubbock, Texas. If I were to make the choice, that 4th school would be Kansas. But they are not a football school.
This is why BYU aligning with the Big 12 is their only chance. But today I believe that the Cougars will end up on the outside looking in. If you ask me, if BYU gets into the Big 12, the PAC-12 will find a reason to leave BYU out.
There are schools that are struggling to keep football going right now, and when it becomes more expensive many of these schools will simply drop football. Some of those schools are in the Mountain West. Wyoming and Hawaii are the only schools I see taking this step today. There may be others.
As for the local schools, there has yet to be a conference kick someone because they were not meeting the standards. In fact, most of the big conference like having someone around to pick on and provide fodder for an easy win. It helps if they are good in other sports. This is why Indiana is still in the Big 10 and Vanderbilt is still in the SEC. This is why Utah is in the PAC-12, and this is the future of the program unless they figure out how to win some conference games. But Basketball and Gymnastics will allow the PAC-12 to justify their existence. If the PAC-12 gets rid of anyone, which I am sure they will not, it will be a program like Washington State. If it is any consolation to Ute fans, Arizona has never played in the Rose Bowl, either.
As for BYU, I don't see them joining the MWC, but remaining independent at the new second division. It will still allow them to play a national schedule, get some games on TV and continue to be used as a missionary tool for the LDS church. They will still have a hard time finding quality games in November.
Utah State will continue to contend in the MWC from time to time. But Utah fans, even if they never play in the Rose Bowl, will continue to look down on BYU and Utah State fans as also rans.
I am not certain that football is in the long-term future at Weber State, Southern Utah and Dixie State. There are not the resources to compete in an arms race, and these schools will be left behind. Hard to tell if they keep football or not, especially with the growth of soccer in the US.
That will all be brewing in the background as the 2014 season kicks off. Let's hope that it's a good one.
This much I do know, the college playoff system that begins this season is a step closer to separating the Power 5 conferences from the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision. By the end of this decade, instead of the two college football subdivisions of Division I that exist now, there will be 3. It does not look like BYU, Boise State or Utah State will be in the top division. This is true no matter what their fans think.
Does this mean that BYU should give up on Independence and return to the Mountain West Conference? My answer is that it is too early to tell. There are several potential twists that could come, and probably many that will. And when it happens, we'll probably all say something idiotic like, "wow, I should have seen that coming!"
But there are some trends that could blow this all away. First and most important of all, is that that fewer kids are playing football. It is likely because of the injury danger, particularly the concussion factor, that parents are steering their kids into other sports. This means that the recruiting pool is shrinking. This is not good news for the schools at the bottom rung of college football.
But here is what the experts are saying.
First, there will not be 5 major conferences in the 2030, there will probably only be 4 with 16 to 20 teams in them. The conference that seems to be on the way out is the Big 12. My hunch is that the PAC-12 will become the PAC-16 with the addition of Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and one other lucky school. People want to say that that other school will be Texas Tech, but I don't see the PAC-12 welcoming a school in little 'ole Lubbock, Texas. If I were to make the choice, that 4th school would be Kansas. But they are not a football school.
This is why BYU aligning with the Big 12 is their only chance. But today I believe that the Cougars will end up on the outside looking in. If you ask me, if BYU gets into the Big 12, the PAC-12 will find a reason to leave BYU out.
There are schools that are struggling to keep football going right now, and when it becomes more expensive many of these schools will simply drop football. Some of those schools are in the Mountain West. Wyoming and Hawaii are the only schools I see taking this step today. There may be others.
As for the local schools, there has yet to be a conference kick someone because they were not meeting the standards. In fact, most of the big conference like having someone around to pick on and provide fodder for an easy win. It helps if they are good in other sports. This is why Indiana is still in the Big 10 and Vanderbilt is still in the SEC. This is why Utah is in the PAC-12, and this is the future of the program unless they figure out how to win some conference games. But Basketball and Gymnastics will allow the PAC-12 to justify their existence. If the PAC-12 gets rid of anyone, which I am sure they will not, it will be a program like Washington State. If it is any consolation to Ute fans, Arizona has never played in the Rose Bowl, either.
As for BYU, I don't see them joining the MWC, but remaining independent at the new second division. It will still allow them to play a national schedule, get some games on TV and continue to be used as a missionary tool for the LDS church. They will still have a hard time finding quality games in November.
Utah State will continue to contend in the MWC from time to time. But Utah fans, even if they never play in the Rose Bowl, will continue to look down on BYU and Utah State fans as also rans.
I am not certain that football is in the long-term future at Weber State, Southern Utah and Dixie State. There are not the resources to compete in an arms race, and these schools will be left behind. Hard to tell if they keep football or not, especially with the growth of soccer in the US.
That will all be brewing in the background as the 2014 season kicks off. Let's hope that it's a good one.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Rebranding your team.
One of the hot topics in sports today is around the name of the gridiron football team that plays near our nations capital. I was a Redskins fan back in the 1980s when John Riggins and the Hogs were among the best in the NFL. There was rarely has been a better a group of gentlemen who were more of a team than the 5 members of the Redskins offensive line. Only one of them, Russ Grimm was inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame. Of course, I was never one to dress in drag and wear a plastic pig snout, but I was still a fan.
But that does not mean that I believe the Redskins should keep their name. I was made aware of this plight when I was a senior at the University of Nebraska at Omaha and found a poster that used many racial slurs as team names in comparison to the Redskins name. However, what most people of the liberal side of the argument don't realize is how difficult and costly branding a sports franchise can be.
Of course, there are the legendary naming contests. However, what most people don't realize is that these so-called contests are nothing more than marketing schemes. It helps people feel as though the community was part of the branding of the team. Usually, the new owners have the team name in mind before the contest begins, and simply reward the closest guess.
Re-branding the team is not something that is done in a boardroom somewhere. If will take weeks, if not months before the team is re-branded. This will be no easy task for the current Redskins owners. Has anyone else noticed that since Daniel Snyder has become the owner of the team, the franchise has floundered? A good brand should reflect where the company or team is currently in the marketplace, where they would like to be in the future and reflect the values that the team would like to project. The current Washington Redskins are nothing like the team that won 3 Super Bowl Championships in the 1980s and 1990s. They are more like a ship without a rudder. You should expect better from someone who became a billionaire through advertising.
Branding takes time. After the name is chosen, logos are designed, followed by uniforms. The main reason the Utah Jazz did not change their name following their exodus from New Orleans is because the NBA felt there was not enough time to do so. Perhaps the original plan was to re-brand the team after their first season in Salt Lake City, like the Milwaukee Brewers were known as the Milwaukee Pilots their first year in Wisconsin. But here we are 34 years later, still known as the Jazz.
In spite of the teams performance in recent seasons, the team doesn't have to look far for inspiration to find a brand that will inspire the team to greatness. There is oodles of choices from American history. Being in the nation's capital has its advantages. Here are some of my suggestions.
1. Washington Continentals--Named for the Continental Army that fought against the British forces in the American Revolution.
2. Washington Wolves--Named for General George "Grey Wolf" Crook, US Civil War General
3. Washington Cyclones--Named for the 38th Infantry Division, who earned the nickname during World War I.
4. Washington Red Devils--Named for the 5th Infantry Division, who earned the name from their German Counterparts in World War I.
5. Washington Spearheads--Named after the 3rd Armored Division.
6. Washington Mustangs--Named for the P-51, considered the best fighter in World War 2.
7. Washington Osprey--The largest birds in the Chesapeake Bay.
There are possibly many others that the current Redskins could change their names to. They could even do it is a way that will allow them to keep their colors, and only change the insignia on the helmet, to keep the cost of re-branding down.
Should the Redskins change their name? Yes. But let's not rush them as branding is a serious business.
But that does not mean that I believe the Redskins should keep their name. I was made aware of this plight when I was a senior at the University of Nebraska at Omaha and found a poster that used many racial slurs as team names in comparison to the Redskins name. However, what most people of the liberal side of the argument don't realize is how difficult and costly branding a sports franchise can be.
Of course, there are the legendary naming contests. However, what most people don't realize is that these so-called contests are nothing more than marketing schemes. It helps people feel as though the community was part of the branding of the team. Usually, the new owners have the team name in mind before the contest begins, and simply reward the closest guess.
Re-branding the team is not something that is done in a boardroom somewhere. If will take weeks, if not months before the team is re-branded. This will be no easy task for the current Redskins owners. Has anyone else noticed that since Daniel Snyder has become the owner of the team, the franchise has floundered? A good brand should reflect where the company or team is currently in the marketplace, where they would like to be in the future and reflect the values that the team would like to project. The current Washington Redskins are nothing like the team that won 3 Super Bowl Championships in the 1980s and 1990s. They are more like a ship without a rudder. You should expect better from someone who became a billionaire through advertising.
Branding takes time. After the name is chosen, logos are designed, followed by uniforms. The main reason the Utah Jazz did not change their name following their exodus from New Orleans is because the NBA felt there was not enough time to do so. Perhaps the original plan was to re-brand the team after their first season in Salt Lake City, like the Milwaukee Brewers were known as the Milwaukee Pilots their first year in Wisconsin. But here we are 34 years later, still known as the Jazz.
In spite of the teams performance in recent seasons, the team doesn't have to look far for inspiration to find a brand that will inspire the team to greatness. There is oodles of choices from American history. Being in the nation's capital has its advantages. Here are some of my suggestions.
1. Washington Continentals--Named for the Continental Army that fought against the British forces in the American Revolution.
2. Washington Wolves--Named for General George "Grey Wolf" Crook, US Civil War General
3. Washington Cyclones--Named for the 38th Infantry Division, who earned the nickname during World War I.
4. Washington Red Devils--Named for the 5th Infantry Division, who earned the name from their German Counterparts in World War I.
5. Washington Spearheads--Named after the 3rd Armored Division.
6. Washington Mustangs--Named for the P-51, considered the best fighter in World War 2.
7. Washington Osprey--The largest birds in the Chesapeake Bay.
There are possibly many others that the current Redskins could change their names to. They could even do it is a way that will allow them to keep their colors, and only change the insignia on the helmet, to keep the cost of re-branding down.
Should the Redskins change their name? Yes. But let's not rush them as branding is a serious business.
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